Poll

Which upcoming new 25+MT launcher puts cargo in LEO or beyond first and Why?

SLS
9 (7.3%)
Super Heavy+Starship
84 (68.3%)
New Glenn
10 (8.1%)
Vulcan
9 (7.3%)
Nothing Anytime Soon (before Jan 1 2022)
10 (8.1%)
Other vehicle (describe in comments)
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 123

Voting closed: 03/31/2019 06:29 pm


Author Topic: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?  (Read 21403 times)

Offline Paul451

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #60 on: 10/26/2019 04:16 am »
Pedantry:

1) This pic was taken in the 60's at Michoud Asembly Facility and shows a lineup of  at least 2 Saturn V SI-C 1st stages.


There's at least 4 first stages. The two unengined stages (2nd and 4th in line) have the wrong bottom shape to be S-II's.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #61 on: 02/25/2021 03:34 pm »
NG at least 19+ months from first launch:

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/new-glenns-progress-towards-maiden-flight

Quote
NEWSFEB 25, 2021
NEW GLENNíS PROGRESS TOWARDS MAIDEN FLIGHT
As major progress is being made on the New Glenn launch vehicle and its Cape Canaveral facilities, the schedule has been refined to match the demand of Blue Originís commercial customers. The current target for New Glennís maiden flight is Q4 2022. The Blue Origin team has been in contact with all of our customers to ensure this baseline meets their launch needs.
This updated maiden flight target follows the recent Space Force decision to not select New Glenn for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP).
New Glenn is proceeding to fulfill its current commercial contracts, pursue a large and growing commercial market, and enter into new civil space launch contracts. We hope to launch NSSL payloads in the future, and remain committed to serving the U.S. national defense mission.
Recent milestones include completion of a New Glenn first stage mockup simulator, completion of a structural test facility, and hardware milestones for tanks, stage modules, and composite fairings.
In addition to program progress, more than 600 jobs have been created in the region. Blue Origin has invested more than $2.5 billion in facilities and infrastructure at all sites, including $1 billion invested in the rebuild of historic LC-36, which is nearing completion.
« Last Edit: 02/25/2021 03:34 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #62 on: 02/25/2021 04:45 pm »
Even though a major delay was announced for New Glenn the competition between SLS, Vulcan and Starship is too close to all. Very exciting!

Offline dlapine

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #63 on: 02/26/2021 02:09 pm »
Per Ars Technica's weekly rocket report- "Sources have told Ars that the realistic "no earlier than" date for Artemis I inside NASA is now February 2022, and this presumes a successful Green Run hot fire test in early March."

Not sure that SLS still in the running to launch this year. Need to keep a close on the completion of the Green run.

At least we're now getting dates for New Glenn, even if they aren't in this year

Offline Bryan Hayward

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #64 on: 03/05/2021 01:54 pm »
I'll be the contrarian and suggest the Long March 9.  Superheavy launch capability is a statement about the health of the country's economy, how much excess they have to spend on vanity projects, and China's economy is the one trending upwards.

The most recent info I see on the Long March 9 program notes- "The Long March 9 is slated to be ready for a test flight around 2030" from an article here: https://spacenews.com/china-reveals-details-for-super-heavy-lift-long-march-9-and-reusable-long-march-8-rockets/. Did you have some updated info on the development effort?

According to an article today (5 Mar 2021) Long March 9 is still scheduled for a test flight in 2030.
https://spacenews.com/china-to-develop-two-super-heavy-launchers-for-moon-missions/

Offline dlapine

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #65 on: 01/04/2022 01:07 am »
Just noting that none of the new ones reached orbit in 2021. sigh

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #66 on: 01/04/2022 02:18 pm »
An even bigger sigh is that some may not make orbit until 2023!

Vulcan, SLS, NG, SS...in that order...
The knowledge is power...Everything is connected...
The Turtle continues at a steady pace ...

Offline dlapine

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #68 on: 01/06/2022 12:35 am »
Vulcan, SLS, NG, SS...in that order...

Really? You'd expect a New Glenn to launch and deliver a payload to orbit before SS? And Vulcan before SLS? Do you have any reasoning you'd care to share on that, as a "why" is part of the poll?

Offline dlapine

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #69 on: 01/06/2022 12:56 am »
Current vehicle launch readiness as far as I am aware for SLS, SS, Vulcan & NG 5 as of Jan 2022

SLS - WDR scheduled for late Feb for the stacked Artemis 1 mission, launch date to be considered after that
SS - current B4 + SS20 flight articles have been stacked and had full prop loads (together as a stack?) have had separate static fires- waiting on FAA approval for launch consideration
Vulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integration
New Glenn - pathfinder test article only, no flight-ready engines available yet either

That's a rough description- if anyone has more useful, current information, please add.

Offline schaban

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #70 on: 01/06/2022 02:46 pm »
Vulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integration
Iím not sure Vulcan 2nd stage is ready yet. Also, payload is late as well

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #71 on: 01/06/2022 03:33 pm »
The "nothing" option won so this poll needs to be remade.

My order would be SLS, Vulcan, Starship followed much later by New Glenn.

Offline dlapine

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #72 on: 01/06/2022 03:36 pm »
The "nothing" option won so this poll needs to be remade.

My order would be SLS, Vulcan, Starship followed much later by New Glenn.

I agree that that the "nothing" option won.

Still not sure that Vulcan beats out Starship though. Probably should do a new Poll in any case.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #73 on: 02/01/2022 11:32 pm »
Well, SLS slips again. A new NET of Apr 8. And if things get difficult for the WDR it may end out in May.

Offline envy887

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #74 on: 02/05/2022 07:52 pm »
Current vehicle launch readiness as far as I am aware for SLS, SS, Vulcan & NG 5 as of Jan 2022

SLS - WDR scheduled for late Feb for the stacked Artemis 1 mission, launch date to be considered after that
SS - current B4 + SS20 flight articles have been stacked and had full prop loads (together as a stack?) have had separate static fires- waiting on FAA approval for launch consideration
Vulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integration
New Glenn - pathfinder test article only, no flight-ready engines available yet either

That's a rough description- if anyone has more useful, current information, please add.

Are the flight booster and upper stage for Vulcan actually ready? I thought the stage that did the WDR was not going to be the first flight booster. And ULA has been fairly cagey about the readiness of Centaur, which was not part of the booster WDR.

Booster 4 has not had a full prop load or static fire. Booster 3 did a static fire, but only with a partial prop load, 3 (?) engines, and on the suborbital pad. IT's not clear that the orbital pad can support a full prop load in the near future.

New Glenn is far behind the others. Blue seems to be still trying to figure out manufacturing and structural testing.

That leaves SLS. But a Q1 launch appears to be out of the question now, and there remains a lot of pad hardware and operations that have never been run with a rocket out there, so more delays seem inevitable.

IMO SLS and SS are too close to call. Vulcan is most likely 3rd, and New Glenn a distant 4th that will probably first launch over a year behind the others.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #75 on: 06/29/2022 03:58 am »
Per Ars Technica's weekly rocket report- "Sources have told Ars that the realistic "no earlier than" date for Artemis I inside NASA is now February 2022, and this presumes a successful Green Run hot fire test in early March."

Not sure that SLS still in the running to launch this year. Need to keep a close on the completion of the Green run.

At least we're now getting dates for New Glenn, even if they aren't in this year
NASA is now officially eyeing an August 23-September 6 launch window for the first launch of the SLS rocket.

Link:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/06/nasa-aims-to-launch-the-sls-rocket-in-just-2-months/

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #76 on: 10/28/2022 01:08 pm »
The "nothing" option won by a mile.

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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Which new heavy/superheavy LV is first to reach orbit?
« Reply #78 on: 11/16/2022 07:35 pm »
Current vehicle launch readiness as far as I am aware for SLS, SS, Vulcan & NG 5 as of Jan 2022

SLS - WDR scheduled for late Feb for the stacked Artemis 1 mission, launch date to be considered after that
SS - current B4 + SS20 flight articles have been stacked and had full prop loads (together as a stack?) have had separate static fires- waiting on FAA approval for launch consideration
Vulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integration
New Glenn - pathfinder test article only, no flight-ready engines available yet either

That's a rough description- if anyone has more useful, current information, please add.

Are the flight booster and upper stage for Vulcan actually ready? I thought the stage that did the WDR was not going to be the first flight booster. And ULA has been fairly cagey about the readiness of Centaur, which was not part of the booster WDR.

Booster 4 has not had a full prop load or static fire. Booster 3 did a static fire, but only with a partial prop load, 3 (?) engines, and on the suborbital pad. IT's not clear that the orbital pad can support a full prop load in the near future.

New Glenn is far behind the others. Blue seems to be still trying to figure out manufacturing and structural testing.

That leaves SLS. But a Q1 launch appears to be out of the question now, and there remains a lot of pad hardware and operations that have never been run with a rocket out there, so more delays seem inevitable.

IMO SLS and SS are too close to call. Vulcan is most likely 3rd, and New Glenn a distant 4th that will probably first launch over a year behind the others.
The SLS just had its first launch today, and whether the Starship will make its first launch next month as Elon Musk hopes remains to be seen.

The Vulcan rocket is scheduled for launch in early 2023, and Blue Origin hasn't said whether it can launch the New Glenn next year.

 

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