Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5  (Read 993346 times)

Offline JBF

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #180 on: 12/11/2017 12:34 pm »
I've just noticed that CRS-14 is listed on the manifest as reusing a booster.

Is that an assumption or have I missed an announcement? I thought the CRS-13 statement on reuse said NASA would look at it on a case-by-case basis for each launch and thus, although perhaps likely, it's not yet official whether CRS-14 would reuse?
If you read the details on what NASA did for CRS-13 reuse permission, they're just reviewing SpaceX work. So as long as SpaceX is just as careful, there's no reasonable expectation NASA will say no. Its NASA folks justifying their jobs and covering their rears.
The key is CRS-13/Govsat-1 and Iridium launches going without a hitch. That will add up to 6 (hoperfully successful) relaunches.

Don’t forget FH Demo adding another 2 flight-proven stages being reflown. ;)

I believe there are 1 or 2 other flight-proven cores without a mission, so at this point we are almost running out of flight-proven stages.

This will change with Block 5 being able to refly 10 times without serious refurb.

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  Although that is the design goal; they may not hit it with the first iteration.
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Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #181 on: 12/11/2017 07:16 pm »
This thread isn't for general discussion of reuse.  It's for discussing entries on the launch manifest.

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #182 on: 12/14/2017 04:04 pm »
Update re SpaceIL (putting it here since I don't see a thread dedicated to this and it's potentially on the SpaceX manifest somewhere)

Quote
... Only two weeks before its completion, $20 million are needed by the end of the year to prevent the project’s termination. This would result in the cancellation of the launch planned for 2018 ...

More details here: http://www.spaceil.com/news/spaceil-alerts-the-national-dream-in-danger-of-closing/

Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #183 on: 12/14/2017 04:11 pm »
Update:

Quote
SpaceIL making final fundraising push for lunar lander mission
by Jeff Foust — December 14, 2017

WASHINGTON — SpaceIL, the Israeli team in the Google Lunar X Prize competition, says it needs to raise $7.5 million in less than a week in order to complete its lander and retain its launch contract.

http://spacenews.com/spaceil-making-final-fundraising-push-for-lunar-lander-mission/

Still not revealing which SpaceX launch they are aiming for and admit it's very tight - even with funding - to get all the required testing done in time to meet Xprize deadline of end of March 2018.

Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight.  It doesn't sound like they have any intention at all of launching before the Xprize deadline, and they don't control their schedule anyway as a secondary payload.
« Last Edit: 12/14/2017 04:16 pm by gongora »

Offline smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #184 on: 12/15/2017 01:10 am »

...
Saying it's a supersync GTO comsat launch is a lot more information than we had before, although not enough to really figure out which flight. 
...

Well, looks like it is enough :)
Of course this is enough only -
IF -- 1. the launch of that primary payload is indeed scheduled for the first quarter
AND
IF -- 2. that primary payload is indeed going for SUPERSYNC

THEN

for the first quarter SpaceX has four GTO missions:

Jan 30, 2018...SES-16 (GovSat-1)... ~4000 kg
Feb xx, 2018...SES-12...5300 kg
early (?) 2018...Hispasat 30W-6 (1F)...6092 kg
Mar xx, 2018...Bangabandhu-1...wt unknown

Hispasat is too heavy for supersync GTO with current version of F9 (actually, it's too heavy for any co-passenger);
SES-12 is too heavy as well - if we take into account SpaceIL weight;
SES-16 (GovSat-1) is way too early;

Which leaves us with the only option - Bangabandhu-1

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #185 on: 12/15/2017 07:24 am »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #186 on: 12/15/2017 11:43 am »
A rarity... Telkom's CEO said on Thursday that Telkom 4 is to be launched in May 2018, vs. the original August 2018 NET as of several months ago. Google Translate is clearly struggling, but the reason provided for the movement was "faster manufacturing process." Unclear if that refers to SpaceX or Telkom, but it could be possible that Telkom 4 has moved to a flight-proven booster to get an earlier launch date, Iridium-4 is (sort of) a precedent for that.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BctC2AbnmXX/

Could just be that when others move to reused boosters, the waiting time for new also reduces.

Offline SpaceGoo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #187 on: 12/18/2017 05:51 pm »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 05:56 pm by SpaceGoo »

Offline punder

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #188 on: 12/18/2017 05:58 pm »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.

Offline Lar

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #189 on: 12/18/2017 06:15 pm »
Maybe better suited for the poll threads but I think 15/15 (recovered/planned to recover) is a far more meaningful stat than 15/18 .... Let's see what happens in a few days.
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Offline SpaceGoo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #190 on: 12/18/2017 07:07 pm »
Just some end of the year observations.  If the Iridium flight launches on Friday and the first stage is recovered that will be 18 flights this year.  5 out of the 18  (28%) will have been with reused first stages.  The first stage flew 2 times in the same year for 4 out of the 5 reused flights.  They successfully recovered 15 out of 18 (83%) first stages.

Welcome, SpaceGoo!

I would add, barring a problem on the upcoming Iridium flight, they successfully recovered all the first stages they intended to recover.


A good point from both of you.  I realize that the payload determines if they will plan for recovery or not.  I was thinking more in terms of number of first stages available for reflight.  To me, this is a great start towards operational reuse and establishing an initial capability.  Will be interested how these numbers change over the next couple of years.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 07:21 pm by SpaceGoo »

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #191 on: 12/18/2017 07:58 pm »
[Yonhapnews] Korea's test moon orbit line shoots in America 'Space X'
Quote
Korea Aerospace Research Institute has selected SpaceX (USA) as a launching service for the Korea Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), which will be launched in 2020
...
The launch will be the Cape Canaveral Air Force Base in Florida, USA.

Antexis of India participated in the open bidding for the trial lunar launch service.

The company chose Space X as the preferred bidder through the evaluation and negotiated the final contract on the 15th.
...
The Korean lunar orbit line is 550kg.

If anyone sees more information about this please post a link

edit: saw a couple more Korean sources saying the same thing.
Emily Lakdawalla had a recent story on the project with more information, she says the target date is Dec. 2020:
[The Planetary Society] South Korea's first lunar mission planned for 2020
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 08:19 pm by gongora »

Offline vaporcobra

Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #192 on: 12/18/2017 08:22 pm »
I have a PDF of a KPLO PI's presentation in October. A NASA official also told a Planetary Society reporter that the launch was more specifically scheduled for December 2020 as of a few weeks ago, but it may still be in flux, so I wouldn't put too much weight on that date.
http://www.planetary.org/blogs/emily-lakdawalla/2017/1207-koreas-first-lunar-mission.html

I just reached out to KARI's press contact and will report back if I get any additional info :)
« Last Edit: 12/18/2017 08:24 pm by vaporcobra »

Online Salo

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #193 on: 12/19/2017 04:24 am »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

Offline AncientU

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #194 on: 12/19/2017 05:28 pm »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #195 on: 12/19/2017 05:47 pm »
https://www.nasa.gov/launchschedule/#.U0NkJ6L-6c4
Quote
Date: April 14, 2018
Mission: GRACE FO (GRACE Follow-On)

That would put Iridium Next 5 in mid-February if evenly spaced between 4 and 6.

Iridium launches are supposed to be roughly every 60 days.
I think Dec 22 to Apr 14 is 121 days which is right on pace.
Halfway in between is Feb 16 or so.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online gongora

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #196 on: 12/19/2017 06:03 pm »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.
« Last Edit: 12/19/2017 06:03 pm by gongora »

Offline LM13

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #197 on: 12/19/2017 06:54 pm »
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped? 

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #198 on: 12/19/2017 07:01 pm »
From the FH Update Thread:

FAA thinks launch is close:

Quote
Second day of the Next-Generation Suborbital Researchers Conference starts with keynotes by FAA’s George Nield and NASA’s Steve Jurczyk. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943132943383453697

Quote
Nield: 2017 has been pretty exciting for commercial spaceflight, but 2018 will be even more exciting, starting with Falcon Heavy first launch in the next month. #NSRC2017
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/943135747477065728

Can we interpret from the second tweet that FH is to launch before Zuma?  Does that mean an FH launch before January 4, or that Zuma has slipped?

I'd say no. It is the exciting part that is starting with FH. Not the first launch of the year.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Updates Thread 5
« Reply #199 on: 12/21/2017 03:19 pm »
The gaps might not be 60 days around Iridium-6, there are fewer sats to deal with.  I wouldn't expect Iridium-5 before a few weeks into February, they've never had to turn around that pad in less than a month before.  Now I'm wondering about SSO-A, would be surprised if that doesn't slip to May.  Also really no chance of Iridium finishing deployment by end of June.

I thought the pacing items was commissioning the in orbit satellites, meaning not before the previous launches satellites are commissioned.
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