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Robotic Spacecraft (Astronomy, Planetary, Earth, Solar/Heliophysics) => Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) and Mars 2020 Rover Section => Topic started by: Danderman on 12/27/2013 06:34 pm

Title: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Danderman on 12/27/2013 06:34 pm
Given the difficulties in calibrating sensor data, how does NASA determine Martian global temperature changes from the 1971 Mariner 9 IRIS-D dataset to today MSU dataset?
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: mheney on 12/27/2013 09:13 pm
You say "the data seems to indicate," doing the best you can with the data you've got, and being willing to revise your hypothesis and models as more/better data becomes available.

(It also helps that climate modelling on Mars isn't politicized.  If someone disagrees with you on your findings on Martian climate, they'll write a peer-reviewed paper at you.  Whereas on Earth, people have a vested interest in climate issues and models - from weather forecasts to flood insurance to national policy - so the arguments are ... different.)
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Danderman on 12/27/2013 10:53 pm
You say "the data seems to indicate," doing the best you can with the data you've got, and being willing to revise your hypothesis and models as more/better data becomes available.

(It also helps that climate modelling on Mars isn't politicized.

 8) 8) 8)


Mars Is Warming, NASA Scientists Report

http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2005/11/01/mars-warming-nasa-scientists-report

The planet Mars is undergoing significant global warming, new data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) show, lending support to many climatologists' claims that the Earth's modest warming during the past century is due primarily to a recent upsurge in solar energy.


 :o :o


Global Warming on Mars & Cosmic Ray Research Are Shattering Media Driven "Consensus’


http://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=PressRoom.Blogs&ContentRecord_id=0df9b3cd-802a-23ad-4984-5ac0c6d42605

According to National Geographic: "Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of the St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

‘The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars,’ Abdussamatov said."

This scientific research regarding Mars and the Sun, follows another new study about the impact of cosmic rays on the Earth’s climate. A release from the Danish National Space Center details the latest research from scientists from Denmark, Canada and Israel.
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: rdale on 12/28/2013 01:18 am
I realize you posted that as a joke regarding politicization, so hopefully nobody replies thinking those news tidbits are serous.
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: kch on 12/28/2013 01:23 am
Might make a good movie -- "Mars Needs Warmin' ..."  ;)
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/28/2013 02:04 am
Just so we're on the same page (whatever you think about the political aspect), who here can explain the basic mechanism of the greenhouse effect?
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Danderman on 12/28/2013 02:10 am
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: mheney on 12/28/2013 03:21 am
I stand corrected.  Climate modelling on Mars apparantly IS politicized.

Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: rdale on 12/28/2013 01:14 pm

I stand corrected.  Climate modelling on Mars apparantly IS politicized.

When unknown Russian scientists and right-wing think tanks who fake people into believe they are scientists, are on the same page, you know it's bad :)
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: mheney on 12/28/2013 04:42 pm

I stand corrected.  Climate modelling on Mars apparantly IS politicized.

When unknown Russian scientists and right-wing think tanks who fake people into believe they are scientists, are on the same page, you know it's bad :)

Consider the virtual "Like" button clicked.
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: go4mars on 12/28/2013 05:08 pm
You say "the data seems to indicate," doing the best you can with the data you've got, and being willing to revise your hypothesis and models as more/better data becomes available.
I used to teach a course called "The Geological Record of Global Climate Change".  I believe that many related proxy data sets are underutilized by most model makers.

I vaguely recall hearing Neptune has shown some warming.  Any links out there?
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: mheney on 12/28/2013 06:05 pm
You say "the data seems to indicate," doing the best you can with the data you've got, and being willing to revise your hypothesis and models as more/better data becomes available.
I used to teach a course called "The Geological Record of Global Climate Change".  I believe that many related proxy data sets are underutilized by most model makers.

I vaguely recall hearing Neptune has shown some warming.  Any links out there?

Models, like any other programs, are susceptable to the "GIGO" effect - garbage in, garbage out.  What constitutes "garbage" is dependent on model.  Data that's too sparse (spatially or temporally), or with too-big error bars are worse than useless to a given model.  You have to consider what the model is trying to actually DO - forecast weather 14 days in advance?  Forecast sea-level rise/declines or global snow/ice cover over the next century?  Models are probablistic, and chaotic - they are susceptible to differences in the data fed in.  Modellers DO look at candidate proxy data sets - they test them in model runs, and see if the results are significant.  Again, that's what grad students are for ;-)  And quite often, the determination is that the proxy data sets are not compataible with the requirements of the model.

As for Neptune - its year is about 165 years long.  We've been observing it reasonably well for what - 20 years (Hubble era?)  Voyager doesn't go back much before that.  It may be warming - and that may simply be seasonal variation.  Neptune is moving toward perhelion (in 2045), so you'd expect some level of warming...
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Orbiter on 12/28/2013 06:24 pm
If the sun is causing Mars and the Earth to warm, I expect great things from Europa in the next few decades..

"ALL WORLDS PLANETS ARE YOURS. EXCEPT EUROPA. ATTEMPT NO LANDING THERE."

:D
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Andrew_W on 12/28/2013 10:20 pm
Given that water vapor and CO2 are greenhouse gases, wouldn't the atmospheric pressure be a reasonable proxy for Mars surface temperature?
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Robotbeat on 12/28/2013 11:17 pm
Given that water vapor and CO2 are greenhouse gases, wouldn't the atmospheric pressure be a reasonable proxy for Mars surface temperature?
...works the other way even more, I'd suggest. A warmer temperature would mean evaporating ice caps and degassing soil. Could be a feedback mechanism, but the feedback would be damped somewhat by the fourth power in the Stefan-Boltzmann law.
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: Tywin on 07/13/2018 07:10 pm
Somebody have new data about this?

Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: johnfwhitesell on 07/13/2018 08:28 pm

I stand corrected.  Climate modelling on Mars apparantly IS politicized.

When unknown Russian scientists and right-wing think tanks who fake people into believe they are scientists, are on the same page, you know it's bad :)

Oh man, how little we knew back then...
Title: Re: Is Mars Warming? Mars temperature comparison: 1971-2013
Post by: IRobot on 07/13/2018 10:29 pm
Somebody have new data about this?
Yes, it is not warming up or cooling down. There are sporadic changes due to large storms. But that is weather, not climate.
Sun doesn't play a major role on Mars temperature, dust does.

A nice wrap up here:
https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-on-mars-intermediate.htm