Total Members Voted: 245
Voting closed: 10/30/2017 05:15 pm
Quote from: Lar on 10/08/2017 03:38 amYour views did a 360? So, back where you started. Sill not making much sense though, sadly.Also, you don't test reliability in. It is designed in and then verified.Exactly. In order to get near perfect reliability, the design is going to have to iterate. But the tests to demonstrate the required reliability are going to need more than a couple thousand hours (which is typical). In other words, how long would reliability testing need to run to demonstrate a service life on Mars for about two years?Demonstrating the required reliability to get to a moon base for 'just' 28 days would be quite a challenge.
Your views did a 360? So, back where you started. Sill not making much sense though, sadly.Also, you don't test reliability in. It is designed in and then verified.
Quote from: envy887 on 10/06/2017 02:28 amQuote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 12:42 amYeah you can split hairs to no end. No i don't think Atlas 552 can be called an operational capability quite yet. Dual engine centaur isn't a done deal.If a thing flies more than 2 times, and has hit at least 1 flight a year cadence at some point, I'd say its properly operational. Quote Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world? That is what I'm saying.This seems like a terrible bet for you, since you can't win for 10 years. But if you really think it worthwhile, I'll bet 6 months of L2 membership (or equivalent value when the bet ends, but not more than $100 US). Conditions: a launch vehicle in a configuration nominally capable of 30,000 kg of separable payload to LEO must successfully fly 3 times including at least 2 times in less than 2 consecutive calendar years before today's date in 2027. And the vehicle can't be explicitly considered experimental, even if completing those flights. Once those flights are complete, I win. If the end date passes without those flights happening, you win. Good?You are on.
Quote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 12:42 amYeah you can split hairs to no end. No i don't think Atlas 552 can be called an operational capability quite yet. Dual engine centaur isn't a done deal.If a thing flies more than 2 times, and has hit at least 1 flight a year cadence at some point, I'd say its properly operational. Quote Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world? That is what I'm saying.This seems like a terrible bet for you, since you can't win for 10 years. But if you really think it worthwhile, I'll bet 6 months of L2 membership (or equivalent value when the bet ends, but not more than $100 US). Conditions: a launch vehicle in a configuration nominally capable of 30,000 kg of separable payload to LEO must successfully fly 3 times including at least 2 times in less than 2 consecutive calendar years before today's date in 2027. And the vehicle can't be explicitly considered experimental, even if completing those flights. Once those flights are complete, I win. If the end date passes without those flights happening, you win. Good?
Yeah you can split hairs to no end. No i don't think Atlas 552 can be called an operational capability quite yet. Dual engine centaur isn't a done deal.If a thing flies more than 2 times, and has hit at least 1 flight a year cadence at some point, I'd say its properly operational. Quote Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world? That is what I'm saying.
Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world?
If SLS is to continue, I predict NASA will build kerolox reusable boosters for it with SpaceX landing technology. They will probably use 5 AR-1's. This would cost less in the long run. They will probably expend the core, but, going back to the SSME, and either maybe parachuting them down. It may lower costs, but still not be fully reusable. If not it will be cancelled and NASA will use BFR for things they want to do in space. They will have to design to fit the payload bay of a cargo BFR. By then there will also be New Glenn and Vulcan for larger payloads, in space assembly of something.
Quote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 07:21 amQuote from: envy887 on 10/06/2017 02:28 amQuote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 12:42 amYeah you can split hairs to no end. No i don't think Atlas 552 can be called an operational capability quite yet. Dual engine centaur isn't a done deal.If a thing flies more than 2 times, and has hit at least 1 flight a year cadence at some point, I'd say its properly operational. Quote Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world? That is what I'm saying.This seems like a terrible bet for you, since you can't win for 10 years. But if you really think it worthwhile, I'll bet 6 months of L2 membership (or equivalent value when the bet ends, but not more than $100 US). Conditions: a launch vehicle in a configuration nominally capable of 30,000 kg of separable payload to LEO must successfully fly 3 times including at least 2 times in less than 2 consecutive calendar years before today's date in 2027. And the vehicle can't be explicitly considered experimental, even if completing those flights. Once those flights are complete, I win. If the end date passes without those flights happening, you win. Good?You are on.That's one.
Quote from: envy887 on 02/09/2018 04:51 pmQuote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 07:21 amQuote from: envy887 on 10/06/2017 02:28 amQuote from: savuporo on 10/06/2017 12:42 amYeah you can split hairs to no end. No i don't think Atlas 552 can be called an operational capability quite yet. Dual engine centaur isn't a done deal.If a thing flies more than 2 times, and has hit at least 1 flight a year cadence at some point, I'd say its properly operational. Quote Or are you saying that in the next 10 years no 30+ tonne capable rocket will achieve operational status anywhere in the world? That is what I'm saying.This seems like a terrible bet for you, since you can't win for 10 years. But if you really think it worthwhile, I'll bet 6 months of L2 membership (or equivalent value when the bet ends, but not more than $100 US). Conditions: a launch vehicle in a configuration nominally capable of 30,000 kg of separable payload to LEO must successfully fly 3 times including at least 2 times in less than 2 consecutive calendar years before today's date in 2027. And the vehicle can't be explicitly considered experimental, even if completing those flights. Once those flights are complete, I win. If the end date passes without those flights happening, you win. Good?You are on.That's one.That's two.
The real question with the bet was never really if envy 887 would win, but how many times over. There is still Vulcan, New Glenn, Starship and SLS. Most of those may also qualify. On topic for this thread, I think that if any of those don't make it, the most likely is SLS, and Starship's expected timeframe for launch has improved significantly since this poll was made.