Lockheed Martin awarded a $2.9 Billion contract for 3 Next-Gen OPIR GEO Sats

[Targeteer]

https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/06/tomorrows-missile-warning-satellites-will-join-sbirs-not-replace-them-space-systems-command/368216/  [June 15]

"A set of five planned U.S. missile-warning satellites are often described as “replacing” the Space-Based Infrared Systems satellites that currently keep an eye out for enemy launches. That’s not the case, a Space Systems Command leader said Wednesday."

[Targeteer]

Pretty sure you can't get worldwide coverage with 2 GEO satellites...

Space Force wants to trim missile warning satellite program

https://www.defensenews.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/03/14/space-force-wants-to-trim-missile-warning-satellite-program/

"WASHINGTON — The U.S. Space Force’s fiscal 2024 budget proposes cutting one of five satellites from its Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared fleet, according to Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman."

[Zed_Noir]

Pretty sure you can't get worldwide coverage with 2 GEO satellites...

Space Force wants to trim missile warning satellite program

https://www.defensenews.com/battlefield-tech/space/2023/03/14/space-force-wants-to-trim-missile-warning-satellite-program/

"WASHINGTON — The U.S. Space Force’s fiscal 2024 budget proposes cutting one of five satellites from its Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared fleet, according to Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman."

All you need is GEO surveillance coverage over potential hostile launch areas. Basically the Russian Federation, China (including the Korean Peninsula), Indian subcontinent and South Western Asia (including the Eastern Mediterranean region). Surveillance coverage of the Americas could be downgraded.

At least until the follow-on Global IR surveillance system is deployed. Which hopefully will be cheaper and more robust.

[Robotbeat]

Russian and China and even North Korea have missile subs.

Depending on capability (of both the missile and the sub… which in NK’s case is not overwhelming for either), that means potentially the launches could come from anywhere on the 75% of the world’s surface which is water.

[Zed_Noir]

Russian and China and even North Korea have missile subs.

Depending on capability (of both the missile and the sub… which in NK’s case is not overwhelming for either), that means potentially the launches could come from anywhere on the 75% of the world’s surface which is water.

AIUI strategic delivery systems in Boomer subs are either launch from very far away or very close to target. Since each delivery system have a minimum range as well as a maximum range. So the Boomer subs have limited deployment zones during active patrols.

Also there are the SOSUS hydrophone arrays deployed in the seabed by the USN that are capable of detecting missile launches as well as the less stealthy subs. Like those of PLAN & KPANF.

[kevin-rf]

Areas south of the equator,  especially places like the South Indian Ocean are not well situated for launching SLBM's. So positioning a GEO bird to cover it might not make the beam counters cut.  Having two satellites in Molniya orbit combined with GEO coverage could provide sufficient coverage of all other areas of interest.

Of course,  if I was India or Australia, I might take a dim view of suggestion of such limited coverage.

[Robotbeat]

Areas south of the equator,  especially places like the South Indian Ocean are not well situated for launching SLBM's. So positioning a GEO bird to cover it might not make the beam counters cut.  Having two satellites in Molniya orbit combined with GEO coverage could provide sufficient coverage of all other areas of interest.

Of course,  if I was India or Australia, I might take a dim view of suggestion of such limited coverage.

All GSO satellites see the northern and Southern Hemispheres equally. Molniya is something else of course, but we were discussing GSO

Besides, more challenging doesn’t mean it can’t. Early warning needs to see everywhere.

[kevin-rf]

The point is two Molniya birds cover almost every thing north of the equator. You really only need GSO satellites to cover areas with below the equator. With two, you limit coverage to areas that have a chance of being used to launch SLBM's towards the US. That would be stationing satellites over the Atlantic and Pacific. While I do not think it is a good idea to not place a third bird over Indian Ocean, that most likely seems to be the logic.

The original plan for five was two Molniya and three GSO satellites. They want to delete one of the GSO birds. Which will mean reduced coverage somewhere south of the equator. Deleting one of the two Molniya satellites means you will have short extremely predictable coverage gaps over the north artic regions every 12 hours.

That said, the DSP satellites prior to SBIRS where extremely long lived. I wonder if they are gambling that one of the GEO SBIRS satellites will be able to provide coverage for much longer than it's design life....

From the article...

The Space Force decided a “two-by-two” constellation — meaning two polar and two GEO satellites — would be “sufficient to ensure that the mission did not have any gaps,” he said.