First to reach orbit, New Glenn vs Starship?

[Tywin]

Well, let's see which of these monsters goes to orbit first...

[zodiacchris]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

[Tommyboy]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

Do you think Blue's factories are empty right now?

Prototypes on the ramp, if that is true...

[Tywin]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

[Nomadd]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge, people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...and most of them have been wrong...

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

People laughed at Bugs Bunny too. So what?

[zodiacchris]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

[Tywin]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

They will both compete in the commercial market...

And it is the reliability, price and reusability of both rockets that matter, not the performance on paper...Shuttle echoes....

[TrevorMonty]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

[whitelancer64]

*snip*
Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

New Glenn's payload to LEO is listed as 45,000 kg, although that number is from several years ago now, and it was widely thought to be sandbagged even then. Improvements to the BE-4 engine made over the past several years of development should push that over 50,000 kg fairly easily. AND that is while reusing the booster.

It's not that far off Falcon Heavy's maximum possible in expendable mode of 64,000 kg, and about double the Heavy's payload capability when it is fully recovered.

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

[whitelancer64]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

[Surfdaddy]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

[whitelancer64]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.

[Vahe231991]

Yeah, first prototypes in bits still, a long way to go. Finish first stage, second stage, fit checks, cryogenic tests, GSE, wet dress, full stack functionality, software, you name it. And looking at New Shepard I don’t really see much ferociter happening, as opposed to SpaceX and their pace.

Besides, we should compare apples to apples. New Glenn‘s payload is less than Falcon Heavy which has already flown 3 years ago. Starship is a different kettle of fish and way above NG‘s pay grade…

Building 7 engines may also be issue as ULA will be wanting Vulcan flights 2 and 3 engines soon. ULA have presold 80 missions out to late 2020s, with SMART few years off they will be use around 20-40 BE4 engines a year.

Blue Origin is already working on BE-4 engine production in their new Huntsville facility.  IIRC it was meant to produce around 40 engines per year, but they recently doubled their planned amount of production staff due to the big demand for Kuiper launches.

But of course factory sizing is one thing, and actually doing it is quite another. Look how long it's taking for Tory to get his first few engines. The BE4 is nowhere near mature or reusable, and that's going to take quite a long time even after they are flying. Compare to the Merlins, for example. Now THAT'S a mature engine.

The time it took to get the first two engines was not a production problem, but largely was due to development taking much, much longer than initially anticipated.  Also, the Kent facility is not set up for assembly-line mass production. Huntsville is.

Blue Origin has to approach producing 40 BE-4s per year just to meet the demand that will be required of it from both New Glenn and Vulcan initial flights within the next couple of years. It will likely have to significantly exceed that in subsequent years, which is why they doubled their workforce.

Examples of the Raptor engine for the Starship, including initial flight-ready engines, have undergone smooth test runs in contrast to delays that the BE-4 engine faced in development before the first flight-ready examples were finally delivered to ULA several weeks ago. Therefore, the Starship is much likelier to reach orbit first than the New Glenn, since the first launch of the Vulcan has to take place and fabrication of additional BE-4s before the New Glenn has a chance of making its first flight next year.

[meekGee]

Oh no, just saw this pole...

NG was competing with FH.
Now it is competing with SS, and is woefully behind.

Maybe if you poll NG to orbit vs. SS to Mars you'll have a balanced poll...

[Tommyboy]

Voting closes: 2023-10-15, 21:39:34

My bet is that we'll have a definitive answer even before this poll closes...

[SweetWater]

AFAIK, Blue has announced New Glenn's inaugural launch as as NET Q4 2023 - which, per Berger's Rule, really means NET Q1 2024. Given that Blue has revenue coming in from selling BE-4's to ULA and their overall track record, I see no reason to assume anything from them but continued gradatim and substantially less ferociter. 

The Starship/Super Heavy orbital test flight has been mere weeks or months away for several years now; however, the internal (Starlink 2) and external (Artemis) pressures to begin actually launching have to be mounting. Kremlinology into what is actually going on down in Boca Chica is a shot in the dark, but I'm in the camp that assumes that Shotwell taking over the day-to-day there is a good thing, and as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year, although it wouldn't really surprise me if they don't make orbit on the first attempt.

[nicp]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

[Eric Hedman]

Unless there is a major design flaw in Starship, I expect Starship will win this battle.

[Coastal Ron]

At the moment 1 vote for NG, three for Starship. At least we know who voted for NG.

People laughed at SpaceX in the beginning, when ULA was in charge...

In charge of what? ULA was the primary launch provider for the U.S. Government, and ULA (plus many other USG contractors) were afraid that SpaceX would take away business from them, so they started an advertising campaign to discredit SpaceX. That isn't "laughing", that is how business works sometimes.

Those of us that have been supporting SpaceX since early on didn't know for sure that SpaceX would succeed, but we were cheering them on because if they DID succeed then it would change the launch industry for the better. Which they have.

...people laughed a few years ago that SLS will fly before Starship...

I have been on this forum since before the SLS was created, and I honestly don't know of anyone that has framed the Starship as a competitor to the SLS. If anything those of us that don't like the SLS do so because of the tremendous cost of the SLS, not because of some fictional competition with the Starship.

...and most of them have been wrong

You are the one that has been wrong about how you have been framing the above charges.

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means, and this is the silliest poll I've seen in quite a while, because Blue Origin is moving exceedingly slow, has hardly any production hardware ready for testing, and they themselves are projecting launching New Glenn no earlier than Q4 2023.

SpaceX has been producing higher and higher fidelity flight units of the Starship for the past year, with LOTS of testing, and it looks reasonable that they will launch in Q1 of 2023.

[laszlo]

... as long as Elon can get his book report done for the FAA I would really hope we'd see at least 2-3 launch attempts out of Boca Chica by the end of the year...

Today is Tuesday, end of the year is this coming Saturday. Not gonna happen, book report ready or not. The concrete isn't dry yet.

[high road]

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

[schaban]

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means,

Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

[Comga]

Next year will be the cotton wool test...

I have no idea what this means,

Most likely “cotton wool’ means explosion. Originated on mistaken translation from Russian to Ukrainian

It’s just a lazy, sloppy post.
In the vernacular, “cotton wool” has several meanings, many vulgar.
This link is to one that might be appropriate for all those Blue enthusiasts, but at the least it is acceptable in civilized public discussions.

Hint:  If you are going to be ever so cool and use obscure slang, it is a courtesy to us less cool readers to add a helpful link. 
Or we can assume you’re using the British version, Tywin.

[Tywin]

It's coming from Spanish, la prueba del algodon...

Nothing offensive...

[Vahe231991]

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million. 

[c4fusion]

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

[su27k]

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

The first link is https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/05/amazon-signs-rocket-deal-with-blue-origin-arianespace-ula-for-project-kuiper-internet-satellites.html, but it doesn't say New Glenn launch costs $86M, it does say an Arianespace estimate shows New Glenn launch to cost $68M.

[Vahe231991]

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

According to , each New Glenn launch probably costs $86 million dollars. Last year, [url=https://www.space.com/spacex-raises-prices-launch-starlink-inflation]SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Unfortunately that link doesn’t work for me.

I fixed the URL for the webpage mentioning the 2020 Arianespace estimate of the cost of each New Glenn launch. If the estimate by Arianespace of the cost of a New Glenn launch holds water, a New Glenn launch would cost less than that of a reusable Falcon Heavy launch.

[[email protected]]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

[Stan-1967]

Additionally, New Glenn is supposed to be significantly cheaper than Falcon Heavy's reusable launch price.

Where did you get that? The last I know that anyone paid for a Blue Origin flight, was about 10x the price of the competition. In that case, the competition doesn't have an operational vehicle, but that's the only data point we have on how Blue sets their prices.

According to Arianespace, each New Glenn launch probably costs $68 million dollars. Last year, SpaceX estimated the cost of each reusable launch of the Falcon Heavy to be $97 million.

Yes, Arianespace is an authority on the cost of New Glenn, just like they were the authority on the cost of F9/FH back when they still had a dominant position in launch services.  Starship Superheavy is in a different race than NG.  It takes away from both vehicles to compare them I think.  Blue is in a race against itself to be relevant. The longer it takes Blue to get it to the pad & to orbit, the less that is at stake for them.  Cue the "nobody cares" memes when it finally happens in 2024-2026 or so.

Starship Superheavy is in a race against much more.  Physics, economics, politics, etc.  It it succeeds, its impact will be much more than just another rocket among many others.  It is a paradigm changing possibility. If it fails, then I'm betting FH will have amortized all its development cost by that time, and SpaceX will drop current prices by around 40%.  Alternately Raptor derived smaller vehicles could be a solid basis of any number of rapid fallback positions SpaceX would need to take to compete directly & at lower cost against a NG vehicle.

[Vahe231991]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH₂, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH₂ while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.

[DanClemmensen]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH₂, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH₂ while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.

I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

[Bob Shaw]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

If the first New Glenn is ever completed and subject to a WDR, notwithstanding the successful WDR for the Starship being yet another signal that the Starship will make its first launch before New Glenn, one thing that needs to be done for the New Glenn to undergo a successful WDR is for liquid hydrogen to be safely loaded to one of the tanks of the New Glenn's second stage, which uses both LOX and LH₂, because during the WDRs and launch preparations for the first SLS mission, NASA personnel recognized the perils of LH₂ while loading that fuel into the stages of the SLS rocket.

I dislike BO, but I do not see this as a big deal. Hydrolox second stages, mostly Centaur in its various forms, have been the norm for decades for Atlas and Delta. The first Centaur flew in 1962 and there have been more than 350 flights. There must be lots of experienced folks around that BO has hired or can hire to implement this very well-known solution.

It was certainly a big deal for SLS - ULA have mastered the processes, but even after nearly 200 LH2 NASA-controlled launches the institutional knowledge wasn't there. Can a tyro BO deal with deep cryo? Let's wait and see.

[whitelancer64]

Gentle reminder that Blue Origin has many years of experience working with Hydrogen and LOX, they are the propellants for New Shepard.

[Tywin]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...

[[email protected]]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...

Rocket Garden ≠ scrapping
https://twitter.com/SpmtTracker/status/1618659996262354944?t=NXFT2gT2ZaUJ3GmxOLw1ng&s=19

[EspenU]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

[Tywin]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Because the goal, is Mars 

[DanClemmensen]

Speaking of the poll, still waiting for New Glenn to do this:

The S24 is in rocket garden right now...wait and see...

They needed to remove it from the launch site because they intend to do a 33-engine static fire of SH. They had to put it somewhere, and the stand in the rocket garden is as good a place as any. I speculate that they will move ship 25 out of the launch area and back to the production site, and they did not want ship 24 in the way. I did worry that they needed ship 24 to be in a high bay for final TPS closeout, but apparently this can be done easily just about anywhere. It think it's harder (takes more time and effort) to put a rocket in a high bay than it is to put it in the Rocket garden.

[Vahe231991]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

[DanClemmensen]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

Off-topic for this thread, but...
If Starship succeeds, then it will be cheaper to launch than F9 or FH. That's the per-launch cost, not the $/kg cost. Thus, every F9 or FH that can be replaced by a Starship launch will increase SpaceX's profit, other things equal. This leaves only launches where F9 or FH are required for non-economic reasons. This includes Dragons, NSSL, and possibly some CLPS and Gateway resupply.

How does this affect the NG vs. Starship launch dates? Only to the extent that it motivates SpaceX to not only launch, but also get Starship fully operational.

[[email protected]]

It should be Starship, so I voted that way.
But I really wonder if a Raptor based 'big Falcon 9' - not dissimilar to a New Glenn - would have been a better move.
I am however, a conservative engineer, so I would think that way.

That said,  I think if New Glenn does beat Starship to orbit I think people will begin to wonder if Elon has dropped the ball, despite Starship being obviously more ambitious.

EDIT: Clarification.

That depends on what the goal of starship is.

If the goal is to bring a Falcon 9 replacement online as quickly as possible, then yes, they should have done it differently.

If the goal is to beat New Glenn, then also yes.

But, none of those are the actual goals of starship.

Starship might not actually replace the Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy because it is primarily intended to take people to the Moon and Mars, and the Falcon Heavy recently had two launches within three months after a three-year hiatus, meaning that the Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy will still be around even if Starship gets off the ground.

Starship & Falcon operating side-by-side ≠ Falcon being operated indefinitely

[[email protected]]

New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19

[Vahe231991]

New Glenn's 7 BE-4 static fire (attempt) on SLC-36A orbital launch mount would be exciting for sure, but when?
https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1623812763415093249?t=9Z9yRNtjPQWWWZJeqyjKEg&s=19

As long as Blue Origin is tightlipped about progress being made in fabricating components for the first New Glenn and satellite images continued to be relied on for the latest progress regarding construction of the first New Glenn, odds of Starship reaching orbit before the New Glenn still remain high, notwithstanding FAA giving SpaceX the go ahead for the first launch of the Starship.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

[trimeta]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

[trimeta]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

[Tywin]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

[[email protected]]

Based on?

[kevinof]

Based on?

It’s not based on any evidence, inside knowledge or anything of any substance. Zero. It’s basically content free - It’s just his opinion and well we all know about opinions.

Might be just as well to park this thread and come back to it in a year or two because it’s just a waste of bandwidth.

[Greg Hullender]

Does "reach orbit" mean "makes it more than half-way around?" or does it mean "enters an orbit with perigee above the Karmen line?" Or something else?

Half-way is a magic number for suborbital flights (with no air friction and single impulse, if you make it half-way, you'll make it all the way around), so I like to think of anything beyond that as orbital, not suborbital, hence Starship's planned first launch is "orbital" the way I'd like to define it. But I'm I the only one thinking that way?

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

[trimeta]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

[meekGee]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

That might happen if they blow up the pad, but that's true of any company, BO included.

[Tywin]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

[trimeta]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

While bending the reality of what has always been considered "experience with building orbital-class vehicles" remains your specialty.

[AllenB]

In other words, is the poll strictly excluding this first launch of Starship or not?

Ambiguous poll wording such that half the thread is just debating what the poll is actually asking is something of a specialty of Tywin's.

No, bending the reality of what has always been considered orbit is the specialty of certain amazing peoples....

Putting SpaceX entirely aside for the moment (which is admittedly difficult given the day) you've put your faith in... Blue Origin? Once upon a time, they looked like a promising start. Then a couple of decades passed and they've gotten as far as sending some people up high in the sky.

You can choose to believe that all of their silence and secrecy conceals great things, but given their record thus far, a conservative approach seems warranted.

[intrepidpursuit]

This one is obvious. If New Glenn ever launches it will be so different from the original concept it might not even keep the name. I'm rooting for them, but with SpaceX being younger than Blue, Blue so far behind they may never catch up.

[Vahe231991]

Seriously? Starship is already on the pad, New Glenn on paper…

This Monday, we'll see how serious this poll is...maybe it's another time that the majority is widly wrong...

Regardless of what happens on Monday, do you seriously, in good faith, believe that this will be SpaceX's only Starship launch attempt in 2023? I mean, this is you we're talking about, so maybe you actually do believe that...

Yes

Genuine question, to ascertain the depth of your...particular perspective: which do you think will be shorter, the time between the first and second Starship launches, or the time between the first and second New Glenn launches?

And for the love of God, don't make a poll about this. I don't want the community's answers, I want yours.

My perspective is that the time between the first flight of the New Glenn and its second launch will be much shorter than between the first flight of the Starship and its second...


Also, not only do I think there will be NO second Starship flight this year, but its launch in 2024 will be quite late....

Elon Musk had this to say on Twitter regarding a second Starship launch:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1649050306943266819

Since Musk now says that SpaceX will conduct another Starship launch in a few months, it'd be interesting to see if any time gap between the first and second New Glenn launches will be longer or shorter than the timing of a second Starship launch.

[Tywin]

The race is on...

[Tommyboy]

The race is on...

What's changed?

[Vahe231991]

The race is on...

What's changed?

Elon Musk wants to have SpaceX conduct the second Starship launch this summer. Regardless, Starship could be the first to reach a sustained orbit because construction of sub-assemblies for the New Glenn is still underway.

[Tywin]

whitout a pad, I doubt...

[spacenut]

Pad is being rebuilt as we type. 

[Tywin]

New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...

[spacenut]

The Starship pad should be finished by the first of July with the improvements.  Then it would be waiting on FAA launch approval for a specific time.  At least 2-3 Starships are built as well as a couple of more boosters.  They do have approval to launch 5 times a year from Boca Chica. 

New Glenn is way behind schedule, like several years behind.  Even Starship is a couple of years behind Schedule, but SpaceX has the hardware and engines.  Blue doesn't tell us much. 

Also, New Glenn is not a competitor to Starship, but to Falcon Heavy as for payload capabilities.  Starship is more a competitor to SLS. 

[Tommyboy]

New Glenn is coming, the 2024 will be amazing...

No way that NG is launching in 2024.