Poll

Which SHLV will successfully fly first?

SLS
65 (33.5%)
Starship/Super Heavy stack
129 (66.5%)

Total Members Voted: 194

Voting closed: 04/23/2020 02:38 am


Author Topic: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?  (Read 38746 times)

Offline sdsds

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #60 on: 03/15/2020 02:30 pm »
This is certainly a fun race to watch, and a fun poll to participate in.

I voted SLS. Having flight hardware already manufactured seems like a big head start. The major risk to SLS isn't schedule slip, it's outright cancellation. That's particularly a concern if there's a significant change in the US federal government after November 2020.
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Offline ZachF

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #61 on: 03/15/2020 04:15 pm »
I don't think SLS or Starship will reach orbit until 2022... At this point I'd give Starship a 70% chance of beating it. You're gauging the unknown-unknowns of Starship development and pitting it against the seemingly endless incompetence of modern-day Boeing and the Federal Government...
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Online spacenut

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #62 on: 03/15/2020 04:21 pm »
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #63 on: 03/15/2020 04:31 pm »
Yes, SLS is certainly more at risk than SpaceX's operation down in Boca Chica.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #64 on: 03/16/2020 04:23 am »
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

With how seriously Elon is taking the coronavirus (ie not very at all so far), there's a non-zero chance of slowdowns if a lot of their people get sick. Waiting until people are feeling ill to do something is closing the barn doors way after most of the animals have left.

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Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #65 on: 03/16/2020 11:45 am »
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

With how seriously Elon is taking the coronavirus (ie not very at all so far), there's a non-zero chance of slowdowns if a lot of their people get sick. Waiting until people are feeling ill to do something is closing the barn doors way after most of the animals have left.

~Jon

Seems premature to infer SpaceX's preparedness just based on some tweets and a few selected sentences from an email (very suspicious that the entire email is not published, makes it easy to quote out of context).

Also I believe CDC still maintains symptom transmission is the primary concern.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #66 on: 03/17/2020 03:05 am »
Given Elon's latest tweets, I still don't think he's taking this seriously.
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

With how seriously Elon is taking the coronavirus (ie not very at all so far), there's a non-zero chance of slowdowns if a lot of their people get sick. Waiting until people are feeling ill to do something is closing the barn doors way after most of the animals have left.

~Jon

Seems premature to infer SpaceX's preparedness just based on some tweets and a few selected sentences from an email (very suspicious that the entire email is not published, makes it easy to quote out of context).

Also I believe CDC still maintains symptom transmission is the primary concern.

Given Elon's latest tweets, I still don't think Elon's taking this very seriously. Hopefully Gwynne is providing some adult-supervision. But if the head honcho doesn't take something seriously, it's likely that attitude will propagate to the rest of the team.

~Jon
« Last Edit: 03/17/2020 03:06 am by jongoff »

Offline high road

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #67 on: 03/17/2020 05:09 am »
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

With how seriously Elon is taking the coronavirus (ie not very at all so far), there's a non-zero chance of slowdowns if a lot of their people get sick. Waiting until people are feeling ill to do something is closing the barn doors way after most of the animals have left.

~Jon

On the level of an individual company, having your people in isolation for months to prevent the spread might be worse than when everyone is infected around the same time and it only takes them weeks to recover. Not good for flattening the curve though.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #68 on: 03/17/2020 02:40 pm »
The corona virus could slow down either one of these.   Depends on where and outbreak takes place and what has to be done there.  Just one parts supplier for either could slow it to a crawl.  SpaceX is mostly in house everything and SLS builders are all over the country.  Once glitch somewhere and boom, another 6 months delay. 

With how seriously Elon is taking the coronavirus (ie not very at all so far), there's a non-zero chance of slowdowns if a lot of their people get sick. Waiting until people are feeling ill to do something is closing the barn doors way after most of the animals have left.

~Jon

On the level of an individual company, having your people in isolation for months to prevent the spread might be worse than when everyone is infected around the same time and it only takes them weeks to recover. Not good for flattening the curve though.

I think there are other ways of continuing on with some production while being proactive about protecting your team (and their community) from being a massive virus vector. But finding those ways kind of requires you to take the virus seriously, and be willing to accept some productivity hits as part of addressing things.

~Jon

Online spacenut

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #69 on: 03/29/2020 07:15 pm »
With SLS work being stopped and SpaceX still working at Boca Chica, I think now for sure Starship will orbit first.

I think with enough testing kits and masks being produced everyone could go back to work.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #70 on: 04/01/2020 02:38 pm »
With SLS work being stopped and SpaceX still working at Boca Chica, I think now for sure Starship will orbit first.

But the question at hand is whether the Starship/Superheavy stack will fly first.

Offline dglow

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #71 on: 04/01/2020 11:03 pm »
With SLS work being stopped and SpaceX still working at Boca Chica, I think now for sure Starship will orbit first.

But the question at hand is whether the Starship/Superheavy stack will fly first.

You're both right. For the poll first flight = first orbit.

For this poll, success means either to orbit or deep space. A Starship flight without the SH booster does not qualify, however on-orbit refueling is not a requirement. Since SLS is disposable, and to make the playing field a bit more level, landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll).

Offline Proponent

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #72 on: 04/02/2020 01:06 pm »
With SLS work being stopped and SpaceX still working at Boca Chica, I think now for sure Starship will orbit first.

But the question at hand is whether the Starship/Superheavy stack will fly first.

You're both right. For the poll first flight = first orbit.

For this poll, success means either to orbit or deep space. A Starship flight without the SH booster does not qualify, however on-orbit refueling is not a requirement. Since SLS is disposable, and to make the playing field a bit more level, landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll).

My concern was that spacenut might be thinking of a Starship flight to orbit without Superheavy.

Offline randomly

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #73 on: 04/03/2020 07:43 am »
I'm thinking Boeing will turn the Covid-19 situation into at LEAST a year delay on SLS. So SLS definitely no sooner than 2022, and very likely into 2023.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #74 on: 04/03/2020 08:06 am »
Voted SLS much as I hate it. Starship tank problems are acute. Meanwhile SLS core stage one is already built.
This does not mean SLS will not explode in flight or have some other major problem, it just means the one existing SLS vehicle will probably fly before star-ship IMO.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #75 on: 04/11/2020 04:22 am »
Voted SLS. Super Heavy may be tough, too, due to pure scale.
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #76 on: 04/11/2020 04:46 pm »
Voted Starship.

With SLS receiving delays by no testing the launch date is experiencing a practical one for one slip. To get back going is at least a 3 month minimum slip. The launch date before COVID-19 was already mid 2021. So the best is now late 2021 or early 2022. The effect on Artemis-2 may not be much at all unless there are anomilies in processing or launch of A-1.

With SS continuing manufacture challenges to meet the structural as well as the weight requirements Starship is also experiencing delays for achieving orbit. But COVID-19 may slow efforts a little it is unlikely to halt it completely. This is due to how manufacturing is done and the numbers and how widely the personnel are normally dispersed. Most activity is in well ventilated or outside areas conducted mostly by singular individuals. When multiples are involved, they are wearing gloves, masks, hats and protective eyewear. This is not something new this is the normal state. With a few extra precautions little impact to activity will occur.

But the structual testing failures of tanks is offset by how rapidly SpaceX is building tanks for test. Tests are occuring at about 2 month intervals. And the last test likely will lead to the next test succeeding. The good thing is that SpaceX is learning the structural weakness points of failure without learning about them after a launch. So once a structure passes the structural qualification pressure tests. The next article will be the first flight element. Likely to be SN5. That vehicle tank would be ready for full integration of all the rest of the flight equipment in 4 months or around August. With a likely actual hop like test flight around October. Then if that was successful a higher altitude 20km test flight around December. The next up would be during these flight tests of SS there would be manufacturing and structural qualification tests of SH tanks and thrust structures occurring sometime after October with a structural qualified design around March 2021. This would be followed by a full up article for hot fire and hop tests 4 months latter around August 2021. A full stack flight test is then likely before EOY 2021.

It is still a horse race. Both could have additional delays. It is mostly about who will have the least additional delays since at this point both have near identical possible launch dates for going to orbit. As to likely effects of additional delays SpaceX innovation and issues resolution process is about 10X faster than the Boeing/NASA process. Meaning Starship can suffer 9 or less technical/procedural issues vs SLS just one, and still make orbit ahead of SLS.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #77 on: 04/11/2020 04:54 pm »
Most activity is in well ventilated or outside areas conducted mostly by singular individuals. When multiples are involved, they are wearing gloves, masks, hats and protective eyewear.

Not really? I've seen multiple photos of this not being the case.

like this one:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=48895.0;attach=1624720;image

and this one:
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=48895.0;attach=1624708;image

edit: It appears the situation in Cameron County is getting out of hand. They just announced 36 new cases, a 22% case increase in one day. SLS was affected first as Louisiana was an initial hotspot, but it is hard to see how operations in Boca Chica won't be given the current trends.
« Last Edit: 04/12/2020 05:26 am by ncb1397 »

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #78 on: 04/13/2020 03:43 am »
edit: It appears the situation in Cameron County is getting out of hand. They just announced 36 new cases, a 22% case increase in one day. SLS was affected first as Louisiana was an initial hotspot, but it is hard to see how operations in Boca Chica won't be given the current trends.

You can see detailed breakdown of the cases in their news releases: https://www.cameroncounty.us/covid-19/, most of the new cases are from two nursing homes at Harlingen.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #79 on: 08/10/2020 07:00 am »
With SN5 successfully completing a 150m hop and is likely to do another flight. This demos that Starship is aimed and can in its current design support reusability. Multiple flights lots of data, post flight hardware inspections available, will rapidly accelerate the project toward orbital flight including at least SH recovery but possibly SS as well. This projects that currently Starship has a possible 3 or more month lead on SLS.

 

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