Poll

In 2014, a Falcon Heavy rocket will...  (choose ALL which apply)

Be seen
236 (18.9%)
Be tested at McGregor
222 (17.8%)
Arrive at VAFB
196 (15.7%)
Go vertical at VAFB (pad fit)
180 (14.4%)
Static fire at VAFB
134 (10.7%)
Launch
113 (9%)
Use cross feed
20 (1.6%)
Attempt side core return/recovery
73 (5.8%)
Land side core at launch site
35 (2.8%)
Attempt center core return/recovery
21 (1.7%)
Land center core downrange
4 (0.3%)
Land center core at launch site
7 (0.6%)
None of these
9 (0.7%)

Total Members Voted: 275

Voting closed: 01/31/2014 05:02 pm


Author Topic: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY  (Read 27321 times)

Offline dglow

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POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« on: 01/15/2014 05:02 pm »
This is one in a family of polls asking: what is SpaceX likely to accomplish in 2014? The poll you’re currently viewing addresses the Falcon Heavy.

Other polls cover Dragon, Grasshopper, Falcon 9 First and Second Stages, and Miscellaneous items, including new launch facilities, future vehicles, and potential partnerships.

DRAGON:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33824
F9 FIRST STAGE:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33825
F9 SECOND STAGE:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33826
FALCON HEAVY:  this poll
GRASSHOPPER:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33823
MISCELLANEOUS:  http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33827

The initial discussion about these polls took place here: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33759
For voting on SpaceX’s 2014 launch count, see this poll: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=33571


Voting Details
• You may select multiple options in this poll; choose all which apply
• Events occurring on Dec 31 local time will count
• Poll closes Jan 31
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 09:45 pm by dglow »

Offline rockinghorse

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #1 on: 01/15/2014 05:22 pm »
I think that SpaceX will not launch Falcon Heavy before they are confident with booster recovery. And as they probably do not use cross feed, Booster separation and first stage separation happens very close to each other. Therefore no problems with first stage recovery.

Therefore if SpaceX fails with first stage recovery, it is very possible that SpaceX does not attempt to launch Falcon Heavy.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 05:41 pm by rockinghorse »

Offline Falcon H

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #2 on: 01/15/2014 06:03 pm »
I expect to see Falcon Heavy fly.

I'd eat my hat if they attempt recovery of any kind. ;D

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #3 on: 01/15/2014 06:09 pm »
I voted "be seen" and "be tested at McGregor." But no way will it fly this year.

In fact, I'm not entirely sure it'll be tested with all three cores at the same time at McGregor this year. Surely pieces of it will, and possibly some of the engines already have.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #4 on: 01/15/2014 06:13 pm »
I think that SpaceX will not launch Falcon Heavy before they are confident with booster recovery. And as they probably do not use cross feed, Booster separation and first stage separation happens very close to each other. Therefore no problems with first stage recovery.

Therefore if SpaceX fails with first stage recovery, it is very possible that SpaceX does not attempt to launch Falcon Heavy.

What in the whole wide world does FH have to do with first stage recovery?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #5 on: 01/15/2014 06:17 pm »
I think that SpaceX will not launch Falcon Heavy before they are confident with booster recovery. And as they probably do not use cross feed, Booster separation and first stage separation happens very close to each other. Therefore no problems with first stage recovery.

Therefore if SpaceX fails with first stage recovery, it is very possible that SpaceX does not attempt to launch Falcon Heavy.

What in the whole wide world does FH have to do with first stage recovery?

I don't think it does. But I could see a theory that holds that they won't do FH testing until/unless they think they can get most of the pieces back so the tests don't cost so much. I'm not sure. The first demo launch should cover the costs of that launch and after that the launches are all actual customers so ??

Now IF SpaceX announced a launch that was BEFORE the demo that was just testing, then maybe, but I still doubt it.

Also, as of this writing, we have 47 total votes, with 44 votiing "be seen" and 2 "none of the above" ... that means at least one person voted for something other than "be seen" without voting "none of the above" !!! maybe they are thinking of secret tests that are heard but not seen :)
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 06:18 pm by Lar »
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Offline rockinghorse

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #6 on: 01/15/2014 06:29 pm »
What in the whole wide world does FH have to do with first stage recovery?

Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 06:30 pm by rockinghorse »

Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #7 on: 01/15/2014 06:36 pm »
Launch during the holidays: at least one booster back on the cement.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #8 on: 01/15/2014 06:48 pm »
What in the whole wide world does FH have to do with first stage recovery?

Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

The same can be said for any launch that SpaceX does. Should they hold F9 launches until they are more sure they can get them back? FH does use more hardware, but it does provide more capability. Something they need for DoD and the heavy commercial market. Re-usability is a nice bonus, but all their pricing assumes expendable launch.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.

According to... you? Both are a high priority, and both can be worked on at the same time.

But you can clearly think what you want. FH has been offered for a while now, and the demo mission has a spot on the 2014 manifest. (even if it may slip) And they simply don't know when they will be able to refly a stage. So at some point, if you insist that SpaceX will wait with FH until they have re-usability, you are in effect calling them dishonest.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 06:52 pm by Lars_J »

Offline rcoppola

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #9 on: 01/15/2014 06:57 pm »
Voted Static Fire.  But could also see just vertical at the pad as they may have some GSE teething issues keeping them from a static fire attempt. But I think they'll miss a 2014 launch attempt by 2 months, so Feb 2015.
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Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #10 on: 01/15/2014 07:03 pm »
One quick comment... percentages should be calculated against total voters, not against the cumulative votes in all categories.
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Offline Barrie

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #11 on: 01/15/2014 07:20 pm »
Voted Static Fire.  But could also see just vertical at the pad as they may have some GSE teething issues keeping them from a static fire attempt. But I think they'll miss a 2014 launch attempt by 2 months, so Feb 2015.
I checked the first 4, for similar reasoning.

Offline MTom

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #12 on: 01/15/2014 07:26 pm »
I think, launch without cross-feed is useless: they would need a second demo-flight later. FH without cross-feed will not go to market.
My opinion is: If FH is not ready for cross-feed, they will not launch it.

Btw: I voted 1 and 2.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 07:37 pm by MTom »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #13 on: 01/15/2014 07:53 pm »
Went with launch. I think they'll get one up.
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Offline dglow

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #14 on: 01/15/2014 08:28 pm »
One quick comment... percentages should be calculated against total voters, not against the cumulative votes in all categories.

Yes, they should. Unfortunately, the polls software calculates multi-select polls as if they were single-choice. I've inquired into changing this, but don't hold your breath.

No worries, though. When the polls close I'll assemble and post better charts & visualizations in each thread.

Offline Lars_J

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #15 on: 01/15/2014 08:30 pm »
I checked/voted for everything up to and including launch. Call me an optimist.

And I agree with MTom - I would not be surprised to see cross-feed on the demo flight. This will be an all-up test, and they'll want to demonstrate as much capability as possible.

Offline dglow

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #16 on: 01/15/2014 08:32 pm »
Went with launch. I think they'll get one up.

Remember, everyone, you can tick more than one option!

If you think FH will launch this year, you'll most likely want to *also* tick the five options prior to 'Launch', as they are each reasonable preconditions of launching.

Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #17 on: 01/15/2014 08:35 pm »
One quick comment... percentages should be calculated against total voters, not against the cumulative votes in all categories.

Yes, they should. Unfortunately, the polls software calculates multi-select polls as if they were single-choice. I've inquired into changing this, but don't hold your breath.

No worries, though. When the polls close I'll assemble and post better charts & visualizations in each thread.
thanks
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Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #18 on: 01/15/2014 08:44 pm »
I think that SpaceX will not launch Falcon Heavy before they are confident with booster recovery.
Non-sequitur. I will try to be simple.

1. Falcom Heavy will be main source of revenue for SpaceX.
2. Prices DO NOT take reuse in account. This will change only when reuse actually works.
3. Thus, there is no reason to hold FH back waiting for reuse.
4. Ergo, they will go with FH as soon as they can, independent of any reuse capability.
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Offline intrepidpursuit

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #19 on: 01/15/2014 09:10 pm »
SpaceX is not going to launch a FH and NOT attempt recovery. I don't think they will attempt RTLS unless they have already been successful with that in Florida just because of the added difficulty of getting licensing and finding 3 separate landing pads. Doing breaking burns and attempting a soft splash down seems obvious. The poll does not address whether they are successful.

I doubt they will start with cross-feed on the first flight. They are anxious to get more military business so they're going to prioritize FH and at least make a solid effort to get it off this year. If they can get it launched then they will absolutely try to recover the stages, but most likely out of the ocean.

**EDIT**
The more I look at the FH the more I don't know if it will have cross-feed. Elon has always said, "it has cross-feed", where the SpaceX website and most official descriptions say, "for payloads over 100,000lbs, it can cross-feed". So I think they will fly the cross-feed hardware, in fact I think it is build into the V1.1 octaweb already, but I don't think they will utilize it. If it is already there then I don't think it will require a second demo flight, just a run on the test stand to make sure it is performing correctly.

Also, all statements I've found everywhere say that the outer cores are identical to the center core. I think the stretching seen has been a graphical error that does not represent fact. The only question I see is will the nose cones sit on top of an empty interstage or will the interstage be replaced by the nose cone. Although the interstage is always seen connected to the rocket, we know it is carbon fiber rather than aluminum-lithium, so it must be manufactured separately and fastened somehow and therefore may be an easy change.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2014 10:40 pm by intrepidpursuit »

Offline rockinghorse

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #20 on: 01/15/2014 10:16 pm »
SpaceX is not going to launch a FH and NOT attempt recovery. I don't think they will attempt RTLS unless they have already been successful with that in Florida just because of the added difficulty of getting licensing and finding 3 separate landing pads.

This is quite good argument, but I believe that it is possible to land a booster anywhere where the ground is solid enough. Even agricultural fields would probably do it in an emergency. And there is the whole Vandenberg Airfield near SpaceX's launch pad, so there is plenty of room where to land a booster.

Bureaucratic hurdles are perhaps the biggest obstacle, but I believe that these are solvable. E.g. SpaceX negotiated for itself 10 launch opportunities for 2014 in Cape.

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #21 on: 01/16/2014 01:25 am »
I think they'll manage to launch one FH this year; so ticked that and everything precursor to it. I think they'll leave cross-feed to later flights, probably in 2015. I can't see any reason why they won't at least try to recover one of the side cores - they'll have tried it with the F9 before the first FH launch, so why not? - but the centre core is harder and they'll leave that to later flights, probably in 2015. Will they succeed in landing a side core? Well 50/50, but as there's two of them ...

Offline DJPledger

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #22 on: 01/16/2014 08:16 am »
I think they will get as far as pad fit with FH this year since no doubt some problems will crop up to delay things a bit. There are usually a few gremlins to get rid of with any new vehicle.

Offline MP99

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #23 on: 01/16/2014 09:04 am »
SpaceX is not going to launch a FH and NOT attempt recovery. I don't think they will attempt RTLS unless they have already been successful with that in Florida just because of the added difficulty of getting licensing and finding 3 separate landing pads.

This is quite good argument, but I believe that it is possible to land a booster anywhere where the ground is solid enough. Even agricultural fields would probably do it in an emergency. And there is the whole Vandenberg Airfield near SpaceX's launch pad, so there is plenty of room where to land a booster.

I believe it needs a hard standing to avoid falling over once landed. The stage is *very* tall.

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Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #24 on: 01/16/2014 12:17 pm »
What in the whole wide world does FH have to do with first stage recovery?

Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.

I'm not so sure.  SpaceX has claimed that even a fully-expendable Heavy would be cheaper than other vehicles with much less capacity.  Since F9 is too small for many high-end payloads, demonstrating the Heavy, even in an expendable mode, could bring quite a few payloads SpaceX's way.

By the way, I'm going for "Be seen" and "Be tested at McGregor."  I'm on the conservative end, as usual.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2014 12:19 pm by Proponent »

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #25 on: 01/16/2014 01:11 pm »
SpaceX is not going to launch a FH and NOT attempt recovery. I don't think they will attempt RTLS unless they have already been successful with that in Florida just because of the added difficulty of getting licensing and finding 3 separate landing pads.

This is quite good argument, but I believe that it is possible to land a booster anywhere where the ground is solid enough. Even agricultural fields would probably do it in an emergency. And there is the whole Vandenberg Airfield near SpaceX's launch pad, so there is plenty of room where to land a booster.

I believe it needs a hard standing to avoid falling over once landed. The stage is *very* tall.

I don't really disagree, but between the legs, the engines, and the very high structural efficiency of the stage, the CM must be quite low.  The stage is probably less tipsy than it looks.  Its height might mean that breeze could put a substantial torque on it, though.
« Last Edit: 01/16/2014 01:12 pm by Proponent »

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #26 on: 01/16/2014 02:22 pm »
I got up as far as Arrive at VAFB
But beyond that I choked...
I just don't see them having the work force to do all that they want, and FH launch this year... maybe I am being pessimistic, (nooooooo, not realistic ;D ) but it will be a stretch to get to VAFB...
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Offline mme

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #27 on: 01/16/2014 04:36 pm »
Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.
Elon Musk appears to be a big fan of continuous, incremental, improvement1. I would be shocked if the first FH launch supported reusability or cross fed propellent. Trying to do everything at once is a recipe for delays and epic failures. First they'll make a viable launch vehicle, then they'll make it better and better. I have no idea whether crossfeed or reusability will come first.

[1] I'm a software guy, so maybe I'm projecting my preferences. :)
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Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #28 on: 01/16/2014 07:21 pm »
Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.
Elon Musk appears to be a big fan of continuous, incremental, improvement1. I would be shocked if the first FH launch supported reusability or cross fed propellent. Trying to do everything at once is a recipe for delays and epic failures. First they'll make a viable launch vehicle, then they'll make it better and better. I have no idea whether crossfeed or reusability will come first.

[1] I'm a software guy, so maybe I'm projecting my preferences. :)

Do recall that they attempted to recover the first stage on the first flight of F9v1.1. I'll be surprised if they don't attempt to recover the side cores, at least.

Offline jg

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #29 on: 01/16/2014 09:06 pm »
Launching three Falcon cores as expendable is exactly the same thing as to burn a million hundred dollar bills.

That is, reusability is by far higher priority than Falcon Heavy.
Elon Musk appears to be a big fan of continuous, incremental, improvement1. I would be shocked if the first FH launch supported reusability or cross fed propellent. Trying to do everything at once is a recipe for delays and epic failures. First they'll make a viable launch vehicle, then they'll make it better and better. I have no idea whether crossfeed or reusability will come first.

[1] I'm a software guy, so maybe I'm projecting my preferences. :)

Do recall that they attempted to recover the first stage on the first flight of F9v1.1. I'll be surprised if they don't attempt to recover the side cores, at least.

Seems like SpaceX is a fan of "all up" testing. I'd be amazed if they didn't try to do reusability on day one.  Missing the chance to try to fly back 2 or three cores seems silly; every opportunity they have they will take advantage of.

If crossfeed is ready, they'll try it; if not, they won't... 

What we don't know is how much work they did in the initial design for cross feed, or whether any of the customers they are talking to even care about payloads that heavy so far.

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #30 on: 01/16/2014 10:00 pm »
...
Do recall that they attempted to recover the first stage on the first flight of F9v1.1. I'll be surprised if they don't attempt to recover the side cores, at least.

...
Seems like SpaceX is a fan of "all up" testing. I'd be amazed if they didn't try to do reusability on day one.  Missing the chance to try to fly back 2 or three cores seems silly; every opportunity they have they will take advantage of.

If crossfeed is ready, they'll try it; if not, they won't... 

What we don't know is how much work they did in the initial design for cross feed, or whether any of the customers they are talking to even care about payloads that heavy so far.

As far as return and recovery on the first FH flight (and the poll options), maybe we are using different definitions. SpaceX may well try a boost back and/or a more gentle splashdown experiment on the flight to collect data. I agree, SpaceX loves to collect real world data. What I don't see them doing is making major design decisions to accommodate functional reusability before they have data on how the FH flies. FH does not need reusability to be a viable LV.

As for crossfeed, I guess it depends on whether the plan is to provide a non-crossfed variant. http://www.nss.org/articles/falconheavy.html suggests that crossfeed will only be used "for payloads exceeding 50 metric tons." If that is true, I think it makes sense to fly early missions without it.

Whatever they decide, the anticipation is killing me. :)
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Offline Owlon

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #31 on: 01/17/2014 03:12 am »
As far as return and recovery on the first FH flight (and the poll options), maybe we are using different definitions. SpaceX may well try a boost back and/or a more gentle splashdown experiment on the flight to collect data. I agree, SpaceX loves to collect real world data. What I don't see them doing is making major design decisions to accommodate functional reusability before they have data on how the FH flies. FH does not need reusability to be a viable LV.

As for crossfeed, I guess it depends on whether the plan is to provide a non-crossfed variant. http://www.nss.org/articles/falconheavy.html suggests that crossfeed will only be used "for payloads exceeding 50 metric tons." If that is true, I think it makes sense to fly early missions without it.

Whatever they decide, the anticipation is killing me. :)

I'm not sure exactly what you're disputing in regards to booster recovery. I fully expect them to try to return the first FH boosters to the launch site and land them, even if those particular boosters will be disassembled, studied, and never reflown. I'm suggesting only that the boosters will attempt to return to the launch site on the first flight, not that they will necessarily be reused. My point is just that they tried to recover the first stage of the first launch of F9v1.1, and by the time FH flies they very well may have landed several first stages if things go well--remember they're hoping to try return to the launch site and land with legs on the CRS-3 flight in February. Falcon 9v1.1 and FH are supposed to have been designed for reuse from the start, to the best of SpaceX's ability. I wouldn't expect the first few recovered cores to fly again, but I suspect the 4th, or 5th, or 6th might.

We're in full agreement on crossfeed.

Offline Tass

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #32 on: 01/17/2014 07:16 am »
Members voted: 213
Voted "been seen": 185
Voted "none of above": 8

So twenty people think it will accomplish at least one of the things on the list, but not be seen.

SpaceX is not working on cloaking technology.

Remember you can vote multiple options, or we won't get accurate results.

(Well, I suppose they could test it, but keep it hidden, but it is unlikely)
« Last Edit: 01/17/2014 07:18 am by Tass »

Offline subzero788

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #33 on: 01/17/2014 12:16 pm »
I voted it will be successfully tested in texas and be delivered to VAFB by the end of 2014, but no static fire or launch.

Offline mme

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #34 on: 01/17/2014 05:25 pm »
...
I'm not sure exactly what you're disputing in regards to booster recovery. I fully expect them to try to return the first FH boosters to the launch site and land them, even if those particular boosters will be disassembled, studied, and never reflown. ...
That's what I don't think will happen. Experiments to collect data, maybe. But I don't think they will fly them back and land them. But if I'm wrong, and it does not delay having a commercially viable FH, that would be awesome.
 
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Offline MTom

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #35 on: 01/17/2014 07:52 pm »
Elon Musk appears to be a big fan of continuous, incremental, improvement1. I would be shocked if the first FH launch supported reusability or cross fed propellent. Trying to do everything at once is a recipe for delays and epic failures. First they'll make a viable launch vehicle, then they'll make it better and better. I have no idea whether crossfeed or reusability will come first.

[1] I'm a software guy, so maybe I'm projecting my preferences. :)

Yes, the incremental thinking appeared to be true.
But increments are others to plan than in software-development, because the tests are very expensive.

Iteration planning should be also consider, which functions are most critical/important: these have to be done first (see also: ISRO with the cryogenic upper stage for GSLV).
Reusability is not so important hier to test (it can be tested also on F9), but cross-feeding is it. My opinion is, that SpaceX will wait with the launch until it is ready. Waiting for the reusability: not necessary.

Other thinking about this: Unique selling proposition.
F9: Reliability + low price. (Big competition in this class of LVs)
FH: Reliability + high lifting capabilty + modest price. (little competition in this class of LVs)

That's why I also think,
- reusability is important for F9.
- FH need cross-feed for really high lifting capacity (second stage is relative weak with the single Merlin thruster). Reusability hier is only nice to have, it can be upgraded later.

 
« Last Edit: 01/17/2014 09:41 pm by MTom »

Offline AJW

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #36 on: 01/18/2014 05:41 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

It still isn't clear to me whether the CASSIOPE spin was caused by the reverse airflow over the octaweb, or if it was intentional as a way to create stability.  This would be an opportunity to try two additional soft landing approaches along with possible divert tests even if they decide to launch without legs.
We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.

Offline dglow

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #37 on: 01/18/2014 05:51 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.

Yes. I wonder if this isn't due in part to the return/recovery option following cross-feed, for which there is a notable (and justifiable, IMO) drop-off in votes.

Would that I could change the order re-run the experiment. Poll bias is a real phenomenon... remember the butterfly ballots!  :o

Offline 411rocket

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #38 on: 01/18/2014 06:18 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

Possibly due to, having to individually control multiple stages, on the way back down & keeping enough seperation between them. No idea, if this has even tested yet, in the simulations, that SpaceX would be running.

Purely a WAG.....

Offline AncientU

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #39 on: 01/18/2014 06:31 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

Possibly due to, having to individually control multiple stages, on the way back down & keeping enough seperation between them. No idea, if this has even tested yet, in the simulations, that SpaceX would be running.

Purely a WAG.....
A 15 second braking or boostback burn of the first booster should put significant space between boosters (at 2km/s or so travel downrange) -- this spacing would only increase as slower over-the-ground return speed makes second booster's trip back to launch site much longer. Controlling two independent boosters (plus eventually a returning center core) seems to be trivial, too.
« Last Edit: 01/18/2014 06:42 pm by AncientU »
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Offline AJW

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #40 on: 01/18/2014 06:59 pm »
I mulled over the cross-feed question, and in Singapore Gwynne joked that this should be as easy as gluing 3 cores together, but I think that the really hard part is a working cross-feed.  CF is what will define the performance of FH, so sending one up without it would be leaving out too significant a capability.  Adding it on a later launch would open the door to debate about whether prior tests without it are valid so I think that after the experience with 1.0 Elon would rather 'Get it Right' than 'Get it Right Now', and FH will be late in the year, but it will have cross-feed.
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Offline DJPledger

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #41 on: 01/18/2014 08:18 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

A successful maiden launch of FH is far more important than attempting to recover the side cores. Get the basic FH working reliably first then attempt to recover the side cores on a later FH mission. So the chance that FH side cores get recovered this year is zero.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #42 on: 01/18/2014 09:25 pm »
Have we seen any actual hardware pieces of Falcon Heavy, yet?
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Offline Avron

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #43 on: 01/18/2014 09:33 pm »
Have we seen any actual hardware pieces of Falcon Heavy, yet?

Just a strongback at Vandenburg .. spacececraft no.

Offline AJW

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #44 on: 01/18/2014 10:25 pm »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

A successful maiden launch of FH is far more important than attempting to recover the side cores. Get the basic FH working reliably first then attempt to recover the side cores on a later FH mission. So the chance that FH side cores get recovered this year is zero.

SpaceX has a track record of testing systems that do not impact the primary mission. They decided to try first stage recovery on CASSIOPE even though it was the first launch of V1.1 and clearly very important.  While the recovery wasn’t fully successful, I expect that the data acquired will lead to future success.  In addition, while it was again not part of the primary mission, SpaceX also tested restart of the second stage and learned that their insulation was inadequate.  Without that test, SES-8 might have had a very different outcome.

While FH may get pushed out of 2014 due to a wide variety of issues, I believe that based on SpaceX’s history, the likelihood of their not trying some form of recovery on the first FH flight is zero.

May the best prognosticator win!
We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives.

Offline MP99

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #45 on: 01/19/2014 09:52 am »
I am surprised at the low numbers for 'Attempt side core return/recovery' compared to 'Launch'.   I consider what was done with CASSIOPE as an attempt at recovery, so if you think that there is a likelihood of launching, why wouldn't SpaceX also attempt recoveries of both the side and center cores? 

A successful maiden launch of FH is far more important than attempting to recover the side cores. Get the basic FH working reliably first then attempt to recover the side cores on a later FH mission. So the chance that FH side cores get recovered this year is zero.

SpaceX has a track record of testing systems that do not impact the primary mission. They decided to try first stage recovery on CASSIOPE even though it was the first launch of V1.1 and clearly very important.  While the recovery wasn’t fully successful, I expect that the data acquired will lead to future success.  In addition, while it was again not part of the primary mission, SpaceX also tested restart of the second stage and learned that their insulation was inadequate.  Without that test, SES-8 might have had a very different outcome.

While FH may get pushed out of 2014 due to a wide variety of issues, I believe that based on SpaceX’s history, the likelihood of their not trying some form of recovery on the first FH flight is zero.

May the best prognosticator win!

I don't expect FH to launch until 2015.

By that time, recovery burn(s) will be relatively routine (regardless whether any fully successful at that point), so not much hassle to add to the test flight, assuming performance reserve is available & landing site is ready at VAFB.

Cheers, Martin

Offline TripD

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #46 on: 01/23/2014 05:31 pm »
The back and forth parlay about whether or not core recovery has any bearing on Falcon heavy seems a bit silly.  As things are about to unfold, SpaceX will be able to research/practice RTLS while being payed for their services.  This cannot be said for these first few flights of FH.  In that regard I think rockinghorse's statement that an expendable FH is like burning up 100 dollar bills is an apt assessment compared to the alternative of waiting a bit.  I am not saying that SpaceX will not test FH seperately, I am confident they will.  But the option and reasoning for waiting shouldn't be ignored either.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #47 on: 01/24/2014 09:09 pm »
In that regard I think rockinghorse's statement that an expendable FH is like burning up 100 dollar bills is an apt assessment compared to the alternative of waiting a bit.
Nonsense. SpaceX will be charging expendable price for expendable FH. They do not lose anything. In fact, if they wait, they LOSE money that could be gained by flying payloads for paying customers with expendable FH.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #48 on: 01/24/2014 09:20 pm »
What makes you think they'll automatically charge less for the same payload for the reusable FH? My guess is that they'll charge the same (at least initially), but they'll have greater flexibility for offering really good deals to companies that need to launch a lot of stuff cheaply.

...and this is why we need more payloads for the launch industry. Reusability only saves significant amounts of money if you launch more times with it. SpaceX /will/ however, be able to undercut any competitor's pricing except for enormous (read: unsustainable) subsidies or until someone develops a similarly reusable launch vehicle. But I'm sure they'll keep the ability to launch expendable versions of F9 and FH if the customer's needs are higher than the reusable versions.
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Offline MP99

Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #49 on: 01/24/2014 09:27 pm »
In that regard I think rockinghorse's statement that an expendable FH is like burning up 100 dollar bills is an apt assessment compared to the alternative of waiting a bit.
Nonsense. SpaceX will be charging expendable price for expendable FH. They do not lose anything. In fact, if they wait, they LOSE money that could be gained by flying payloads for paying customers with expendable FH.

I'd also bet there will be some tweaks they'll want to make after the first flight.

But, recovering stages will allow them to be checked out / torn apart, which has it's own value.

cheers, Martin

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #50 on: 01/24/2014 09:32 pm »
SpaceX isn't going to lose revenue by going with reusable earlier. They don't /have/ to charge less for reusable, they simply have the flexibility to do so (and gain more customers/marketshare).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline TripD

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #51 on: 01/25/2014 06:18 am »
Quote
Nonsense. SpaceX will be charging expendable price for expendable FH. They do not lose anything. In fact, if they wait, they LOSE money that could be gained by flying payloads for paying customers with expendable FH.

Fair enough. I was thinking in terms of the first couple of flights being without a 'pay'load at all. It would reduce the costs of those tests if they could reuse the cores.

Offline Mader Levap

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #52 on: 01/25/2014 12:37 pm »
I was thinking in terms of the first couple of flights being without a 'pay'load at all.
Why do you think these first flight will not have payload?

I am quite sure they will find someone willing to put something on maiden FH flight in exchange for biiiig discount. In worst case, yes, they will launch it by themself with more or less dummy payload. But if that flight will be successful, I do not think they will have trouble finding interested customers for "couple" next flights.
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Offline Roy_H

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #53 on: 01/25/2014 12:59 pm »
Quote
Nonsense. SpaceX will be charging expendable price for expendable FH. They do not lose anything. In fact, if they wait, they LOSE money that could be gained by flying payloads for paying customers with expendable FH.

Fair enough. I was thinking in terms of the first couple of flights being without a 'pay'load at all. It would reduce the costs of those tests if they could reuse the cores.

Conceptually, I agree, but if the first FH boosters are successfully recovered, I doubt they will be re-used, but instead disassembled and inspected.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk
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Offline Avron

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #54 on: 01/25/2014 01:10 pm »
Quote
Nonsense. SpaceX will be charging expendable price for expendable FH. They do not lose anything. In fact, if they wait, they LOSE money that could be gained by flying payloads for paying customers with expendable FH.

Fair enough. I was thinking in terms of the first couple of flights being without a 'pay'load at all. It would reduce the costs of those tests if they could reuse the cores.

Conceptually, I agree, but if the first FH boosters are successfully recovered, I doubt they will be re-used, but instead disassembled and inspected.

Was wondering if some of these (if recovered) boosters could end up at the new Texas launch complex as I note that Spacex has requested in its FAA etc  filings the ability to do  suborbital flights, where the used stages would be used to do these flights.
« Last Edit: 01/25/2014 01:35 pm by Avron »

Offline Roy_H

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Re: POLL: SpaceX Accomplishments - FALCON HEAVY
« Reply #55 on: 01/25/2014 01:19 pm »

Was wondering if some of these (if recovered) boosters could end up at the new Texas launch complex as I note that Spacex has requested in its FAA etc  filings the ability to do  suborbital flights, where the used sages would be used to do these flights.

There was some speculation about what these suborbital flights would be. I think the best suggestion was that the returning first stage was in itself a suborbital flight. I don't think SpaceX is intending to compete with Blue Origin, Virgin Galatic, Xcore.
"If we don't achieve re-usability, I will consider SpaceX to be a failure." - Elon Musk
Spacestation proposal: https://politicalsolutions.ca/forum/index.php?topic=3.0

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