Author Topic: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?  (Read 36822 times)

Offline Proponent

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Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« on: 07/14/2010 05:52 am »
As the topic comes up tangentially in multiple other threads, we could gain both clarity and efficiency by devoting a single thread to the question of whether the US Department of Defense has any need for a heavy-lift launch vehicle, which herein means a launch vehicle with a capacity to LEO substantially greater than the Delta IV Heavy's 26 tonnes (57,000 lb).

Please be as specific as possible, and please keep in mind that the discussion is restricted to DoD's needs.

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #1 on: 07/14/2010 06:23 am »
Personally, I can't think of any DoD payload that would require that kind of lifting capability. Unless we want to go back to SDI "Star Wars" or possibly a "Rods from God"-type kinetic orbital strike platform. But that could be achieved better and for much less money by modified Trident-D5s equiped with kinetic warheads.

BTW, the Chinese have already developped (maybe even deployed) such weapon: A modified DF-21 missile with a maneuverable kinetic RV designed to strike and sink USN Carriers at sea...
It was shown off to the world at the PRC's 60th anniversary parade last October.
« Last Edit: 07/14/2010 06:23 am by aquanaut99 »

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #2 on: 07/14/2010 06:26 am »
Jim had a (since renamed) thread on this:

DOD spacecraft projects for existing vehicles
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #3 on: 07/14/2010 06:46 am »
Yeah, after Jim's thread we probably don't need to rehash it.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #4 on: 07/14/2010 09:15 am »
Yeah, after Jim's thread we probably don't need to rehash it.

Looking at each question, as they were originally framed, without going through Jim's thread, these are two separate and distinct questions; Jim's approaches the DoD existing projects (proposed and in progress) and asks are there any that are requiring a new LV, and he answers his own question, in the NEGATIVE: it is a myth

and Proponent asks, does a need or requirement (not specifying any projects, current or proposed) within DoD that might utilize a new LV of over 26 Tonnes capacity; thus accepting that there are no projects being carried through or proposed AT PRESENT, and couching his question in neither the POSITIVE or NEGATIVE, without answering it himself;

I would only add this addendum: within the next 20 years and expand it to the potential for NATO Alliance involvement;

Proponent:
whether the US Department of Defense has any need (or Requirement) for a heavy-lift launch vehicle, which herein means a launch vehicle with a capacity to LEO substantially greater than the Delta IV Heavy's 26 tonnes (57,000 lb).

Jim:
myth: the DOD has active spacecraft projects that are too large for existing vehicles.  Active meaning not advance studies but a development project culminating with the construction of a spacecraft
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Offline Halidon

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #5 on: 07/15/2010 08:02 am »
DoD does have a requirement for a Large Hydrocarbon Engine.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #6 on: 07/15/2010 08:13 am »
DoD does have a requirement for a Large Hydrocarbon Engine.

That's true, but if you're talking about HC Boost, then

1) It's thrust is to be just 250 klb (not much more than that of the RS-27A which powers the Delta II's first stage); this is presumably just the size of the demonstrator and the final engine, if ever produced, will be larger, but

2) It's likely that the intended application of the engine is as a replacement for the RD-180 used by the Atlas V, which is not a heavy lifter.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #7 on: 07/15/2010 08:23 am »
Jim had a (since renamed) thread on this

Oh, yeah, I confess I'd forgotten about that even though I participated in it.

To cro-magnon gramps: I would be quite happy to believe that my thought process in starting the current thread was as subtle and clearly thought out as you suggest!

I just want to see if any of the people who hint that DoD needs heavy lift can offer any support of that view.  Thus far there appears to be not a scintilla of evidence in favor.

Offline neilh

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #8 on: 07/15/2010 08:33 am »
The only possibility i can think of wouldn't be DOD per se, but larger NRO telescopes taking advantage of the larger payload fairings.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #9 on: 07/15/2010 07:42 pm »
The only possibility i can think of wouldn't be DOD per se, but larger NRO telescopes taking advantage of the larger payload fairings.
The only problem would be that such a monolithic telescope mirror, if significantly greater than the 7.2m diameter of EELV guppies (like, say, 12 m), would be significantly larger than any monolithic mirrors ever made (largest ever is 8.2 m), let alone any capable of being lofted into orbit.

And the fact that their current line of spy sats are already having a hard time not getting canceled: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Imagery_Architecture (canceled in 2005) Making spy sats many times larger isn't going to decrease their costs, no matter what their launch vehicle is.
« Last Edit: 07/15/2010 07:47 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #10 on: 07/15/2010 07:56 pm »
Until there is a spacecraft production facility next to a waterway, they are limited to aircraft dimensions, can't truck the big items.

A whole new infrastructure will need to be created to get the payloads to the launch site or manufacturing has to be done at the launch site
« Last Edit: 07/15/2010 07:56 pm by Jim »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #11 on: 07/15/2010 08:12 pm »
Until there is a spacecraft production facility next to a waterway, they are limited to aircraft dimensions, can't truck the big items.

A whole new infrastructure will need to be created to get the payloads to the launch site or manufacturing has to be done at the launch site
Exactly. Logistics on the ground seems to be a very often-overlooked issue for HLV advocates. If it can fit in an airplane, then almost surely it can fit in a guppy-EELV, diameter-wise (which STILL have never been utilized), as well. The exceptions to this are very rare and, I would say, somewhat contrived.
« Last Edit: 07/15/2010 08:14 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #12 on: 07/15/2010 09:19 pm »
Max diameter for aircraft delivered payload is 5 meters, which is a standard EELV fairing.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #13 on: 07/15/2010 09:21 pm »
Max diameter for aircraft delivered payload is 5 meters, which is a standard EELV fairing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Guppy
Max inside diameter is 7.6 m.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #14 on: 07/15/2010 09:38 pm »
Max diameter for aircraft delivered payload is 5 meters, which is a standard EELV fairing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Guppy
Max inside diameter is 7.6 m.

Guppy is not being used anymore.  C-5 is the aircraft of choice.   Plus there are no containers for spacecraft over 5m dia.
« Last Edit: 07/15/2010 09:40 pm by Jim »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #15 on: 07/15/2010 09:41 pm »
Max diameter for aircraft delivered payload is 5 meters, which is a standard EELV fairing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Guppy
Max inside diameter is 7.6 m.

Guppy is not being used anymore
Didn't know that. That strengthens the notion I've had that Earth-side logistical difficulties make HLV-sized payloads... well... difficult.
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Offline TexasRED

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #16 on: 07/15/2010 10:25 pm »
Max diameter for aircraft delivered payload is 5 meters, which is a standard EELV fairing.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Guppy
Max inside diameter is 7.6 m.

Guppy is not being used anymore
Didn't know that. That strengthens the notion I've had that Earth-side logistical difficulties make HLV-sized payloads... well... difficult.

That article says the last one is still in service and being used for ISS & Orion, but I don't really keep up on them plus its wiki.  I remember pics of the PA-1 Orion CM being loaded up but don't remember what aircraft it was.

Man seeing one of those in person is just whacky, especially when flying over your head.  Going inside one is crazy too!

Offline jml

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #17 on: 07/16/2010 03:19 am »
Wiki article also points to the Airbus Beluga (5 built from A300s in the the 1990s with 7.1m diameter by 37.7m length cargo compartment) and the Boeing Dreamlifter (4 built recently from converted 747-400s, used for carrying 21' diameter 787 fuselage pieces). The Beluga article mentions that it is available for charters as well as usual duties of ferrying A330 and A380 components. In comparison, the An-225 has a much smaller 4.4m x 6.4m loading door.

Offline kraisee

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #18 on: 07/16/2010 03:25 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.   They were planning on flying it on Ares-V, but that ain't happening any more, so they're wondering what to use instead now.

Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Ross.
« Last Edit: 07/16/2010 03:27 am by kraisee »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #19 on: 07/16/2010 03:33 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.   They were planning on flying it on Ares-V, but that ain't happening any more, so they're wondering what to use instead now.

Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Ross.
How isn't this classified?

Very interesting information, for sure.

EDIT: DoD really ought to put some money down for this project, then, if they're going to use it.
« Last Edit: 07/16/2010 03:41 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline jml

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #20 on: 07/16/2010 04:12 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.   They were planning on flying it on Ares-V, but that ain't happening any more, so they're wondering what to use instead now.

Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Ross.
Half a brain cell - hey, I think I qualify for that. Now if only there was a civilian counterpart to this DoD program that could share the basic system architecture in the same manner as a previous generation of DoD payloads and a particularly famous NASA project. Maybe we'll see that in the 2012 budget.
« Last Edit: 07/16/2010 04:12 am by jml »

Offline rjholling

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #21 on: 07/16/2010 04:17 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.   They were planning on flying it on Ares-V, but that ain't happening any more, so they're wondering what to use instead now.

Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Ross.
How isn't this classified?

Very interesting information, for sure.

EDIT: DoD really ought to put some money down for this project, then, if they're going to use it.
My thoughts exactly.  Do you have some documentation on this?

Offline kraisee

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #22 on: 07/16/2010 04:17 am »
I should actually qualify my earlier comment with "...that I am aware of".

I would fully expect that if there are already five which I have learned about, there will be even more which I have not.

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Offline Warren Platts

Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #23 on: 07/16/2010 04:25 am »
Quote
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.


Spy satellites?
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Offline Downix

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #24 on: 07/16/2010 04:42 am »
Quote
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.


Spy satellites?

Giant binoculars lenses in order to peep on ladies sunbathing topless on their roofs....
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline kraisee

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #25 on: 07/16/2010 04:46 am »
You've heard of Black Projects?   That's what's called a Blue Project ;)

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #26 on: 07/16/2010 04:49 am »
You've heard of Black Projects?   That's what's called a Blue Project ;)

Ross.
DoD is obviously fighting extraterrestrials. :) Grey Project?
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Offline ChewyOlive

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #27 on: 07/16/2010 05:47 am »
You've heard of Black Projects?   That's what's called a Blue Project ;)

Ross.

navy? or do you mean blacker than black?  ???

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #28 on: 07/16/2010 08:02 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.

Quote
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too.

Can you provide any evidence in support of these statements?

Offline jongoff

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #29 on: 07/16/2010 04:20 pm »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.

Quote
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too.

Can you provide any evidence in support of these statements?

Yeah, knowing the massive budget problems the DoD has already run into with its big satellites, I have a hard time believing that they're really building 12m satellites in the hope that someone will make a launcher for them.  Exceptional claims require exceptional proof.

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Offline jml

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #30 on: 07/16/2010 05:13 pm »
Sure...lets all get Ross to ask his DoD contracts for documentation about a classified national security program so he can post that documentation here for all to see. Great idea. Did we just want him deported to the UK, or are we trying for rendition to somewhere a little more exotic?

The man has a pretty solid track record that should count for something.

Interesting article here on cancellation of both FIA and its replacement program:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/fia.htm

Another interesting article here:
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1400/1
Note what it has to say about the "tiers" of the planned FIA follow-on, the need for JWST-style folding mirrors to meet requirements, and the Obama administration intention to have LM build modernized Block 5 KH-11s.

While there's nothing in these articles to suggest any payload too large for EELVs has been contracted for, you can certainly see how a larger LV could really help avoid JWST-style complexity and cost.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #31 on: 07/16/2010 05:23 pm »
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #32 on: 07/16/2010 05:28 pm »
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Giant soccer balls, to prove to the Old World we are serious about soccer?
I think you are dangerously close to the real reason for wanting an HLV! *ducks-and-runs-away*
 ;)
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Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #33 on: 07/16/2010 05:39 pm »
Sure...lets all get Ross to ask his DoD contracts for documentation about a classified national security program so he can post that documentation here for all to see. Great idea. Did we just want him deported to the UK, or are we trying for rendition to somewhere a little more exotic?

The man has a pretty solid track record that should count for something.

Interesting article here on cancellation of both FIA and its replacement program:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/fia.htm

Another interesting article here:
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/1400/1
Note what it has to say about the "tiers" of the planned FIA follow-on, the need for JWST-style folding mirrors to meet requirements, and the Obama administration intention to have LM build modernized Block 5 KH-11s.

While there's nothing in these articles to suggest any payload too large for EELVs has been contracted for, you can certainly see how a larger LV could really help avoid JWST-style complexity and cost.

FIA was using medium EELV's.  Originally, there were no plans for heavy EELV's on the west coast.

Folding mirrors do not translate to JWST costs and complexity, there are many other factors, including this basic one, JWST is a big spacecraft and hence all of it costs are higher.  Also, include its sunshade whcih would still have issues in a HLV.  Most are from discovering that there is no infrastructure for assembling and testing large payloads.

NASA having an HLV capability at LC-39 does nothing for the missions like FIA and its follow on.  Those are west coast missions.  No SDLV capability at VAFB anymore.

Ross may be talking to "pie in the sky" blue suiters who have big dreams, but not the real movers and shakers in the "real" national security space program.
« Last Edit: 07/16/2010 05:44 pm by Jim »

Offline JosephB

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #34 on: 07/16/2010 05:41 pm »
I was hoping Jim or Blackstar would comment on this.

Offline nooneofconsequence

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #35 on: 07/16/2010 05:58 pm »
Ross may be talking to "pie in the sky" blue suiters who have big dreams, but not the real movers and shakers in the "real" national security space program.
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Offline jongoff

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #36 on: 07/16/2010 06:53 pm »
Sure...lets all get Ross to ask his DoD contracts for documentation about a classified national security program so he can post that documentation here for all to see. Great idea. Did we just want him deported to the UK, or are we trying for rendition to somewhere a little more exotic?

I'm sorry JML.  You may buy this stuff, but Occam's razor makes me doubt the claim barring some proof.  With how expensive EELV-sized payloads are, do you really think that the DoD would somehow be able to hide the massive costs of developing 5(!) payloads so big they require HLVs to lift them?  And that they would do so even when the potential existance of said HLVs was highly in doubt?  While I could see some people screwing around with *concepts* for missions, doing "what-if" studies and things like that, I just don't buy for a second that the military actually has missions that couldn't be flown on existing or planned LVs.  I like Ross, but stuff like this makes me take him less seriously.

~Jon

Offline neilh

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #37 on: 07/16/2010 07:17 pm »
Sure...lets all get Ross to ask his DoD contracts for documentation about a classified national security program so he can post that documentation here for all to see. Great idea. Did we just want him deported to the UK, or are we trying for rendition to somewhere a little more exotic?

I'm sorry JML.  You may buy this stuff, but Occam's razor makes me doubt the claim barring some proof.  With how expensive EELV-sized payloads are, do you really think that the DoD would somehow be able to hide the massive costs of developing 5(!) payloads so big they require HLVs to lift them?  And that they would do so even when the potential existance of said HLVs was highly in doubt?  While I could see some people screwing around with *concepts* for missions, doing "what-if" studies and things like that, I just don't buy for a second that the military actually has missions that couldn't be flown on existing or planned LVs.  I like Ross, but stuff like this makes me take him less seriously.

~Jon

I'd also figure that if the DoD can afford at least 5 multi-billion dollar HLV-size payloads, they can afford (and have an obvious incentive) to pay for HLV development themselves.

I wonder if they're essentially the DoD parallel to the 2008 study the National Academies did when requested by NASA to come up with some science missions that could be flown on Ares V. They evaluated 17 different missions, many of which were already planned for smaller vehicles but could potentially be "enhanced" if they were flown on an HLV. An interesting quote from that study:
Quote
Finding: The scientific missions reviewed by the committee as appropriate for launch on an Ares V vehicle
fall, with few exceptions, into the “flagship” class of missions. The preliminary cost estimates, based on mis-
sion concepts that at this time are not very detailed, indicate that the costs of many of the missions analyzed
will be above $5 billion (in current dollars). The Ares V costs are not included in these estimates.

The committee notes that expensive space science programs will place a great strain on the space science
budget, which has been essentially flat for several years and is already under strain from an ambitious slate of
85 flight missions.


http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12201
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Offline jml

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #38 on: 07/16/2010 08:46 pm »
Now that's what makes this site so great...an aerospace ignoramus like me can Google-Fu up a couple of links, and get rebutted by the "celebrity" NSF industry insiders who actually know what they are talking about.

The blindingly obvious bit I hadn't figured out was the polar orbit requirement. SLC6 isn't likely to be re-converted from Delta IV to SDLV anytime soon.

Thanks Jim & Jon for your take on this.
(Hope Chris B is keeping you guys well stocked up with nasaspaceflight swag) :)
« Last Edit: 07/16/2010 08:47 pm by jml »

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #39 on: 08/16/2010 02:35 am »
NASA having an HLV capability at LC-39 does nothing for the missions like FIA and its follow on.  Those are west coast missions.  No SDLV capability at VAFB anymore.

Couldn't it be that a large DoD payload might be volume-limited rather than mass-limited, and that an East Coast-launched HLV could fly a dog-leg trajectory to place the payload into polar orbit?
« Last Edit: 08/16/2010 02:35 am by Proponent »

Offline Jorge

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #40 on: 08/16/2010 03:03 am »
NASA having an HLV capability at LC-39 does nothing for the missions like FIA and its follow on.  Those are west coast missions.  No SDLV capability at VAFB anymore.

Couldn't it be that a large DoD payload might be volume-limited rather than mass-limited, and that an East Coast-launched HLV could fly a dog-leg trajectory to place the payload into polar orbit?

No, dog-leg trajectories can only increase inclination by a few degrees, and in any event, would violate range safety limits.
JRF

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #41 on: 08/16/2010 03:55 am »
No, dog-leg trajectories can only increase inclination by a few degrees, and in any event, would violate range safety limits.

What about the launch from Cape Canaveral of ESSA 2 on 28 February 1966?  Encyclopedia Astronautica indicates an inclination of 101.3 degrees?

Offline Jorge

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #42 on: 08/16/2010 04:17 am »
No, dog-leg trajectories can only increase inclination by a few degrees, and in any event, would violate range safety limits.

What about the launch from Cape Canaveral of ESSA 2 on 28 February 1966?  Encyclopedia Astronautica indicates an inclination of 101.3 degrees?

Perhaps that was allowed in the 60s. Can't see that being allowed today.
JRF

Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #43 on: 08/16/2010 11:24 am »
No, dog-leg trajectories can only increase inclination by a few degrees, and in any event, would violate range safety limits.

What about the launch from Cape Canaveral of ESSA 2 on 28 February 1966?  Encyclopedia Astronautica indicates an inclination of 101.3 degrees?

It was launched by a Delta E which had a solid third stage.  The third stage was used for the inclination change after the other 2 stages achieved orbit, there were no overflight issues

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #44 on: 10/11/2010 04:26 am »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities.

The first of those will actually be completed and awaiting a vehicle to fly it, around 2014.   They were planning on flying it on Ares-V, but that ain't happening any more, so they're wondering what to use instead now.

I find the claim that DoD would have spent no doubt billions on payloads to be launched by Ares V and then let Ares V fade away saying, in effect, "Oh well, I guess we'll just have to figure out another way to launch these things," very hard to believe.  Consider all of the noise we heard about the importance to national security of Shuttle SRB production.  Jim's point that no west-coast pads for Ares V were ever mooted heightens my skepticism.

Another reason for skepticism is the dearth of Delta IV Heavy launches: if there were such a need for really large spysats, isn't it likely that we we see, as an interim step, many launches on the largest vehicle available?  And why hasn't a 7- or 8-meter shroud been built for Delta IV Heavy?
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 04:32 am by Proponent »

Offline marsavian

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #45 on: 10/11/2010 06:45 am »
The not inexpensive RS-68A development was undertaken because the original Delta IV Heavy was not powerful enough and will be superseded within a few launches. The difference in capability between Delta IV Heavy and Ares V is also so wide that you can't really make any serious assumptions based on Delta IV flight rate.

Offline alexw

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #46 on: 10/11/2010 07:11 am »
The not inexpensive RS-68A development was undertaken because the original Delta IV Heavy was not powerful enough and will be superseded within a few launches. The difference in capability between Delta IV Heavy and Ares V is also so wide that you can't really make any serious assumptions based on Delta IV flight rate.
    DOD could have placed an order years ago for Delta IV Heavy with 6*GEMs for ~35mT, adding GEMs + RS-68A gets to 37mT, GEM+RS-68A+upper stage goes to 44mT, +crossfeed goes to 47mT. Those figures already include 6.5m fairings, and they've investigated up to 7.2m fairings.
 
    Delta IV, for all its faults, is actually pretty flexible; without touching the real Delta IV-evolved-proposals, that's scaling to a 100% payload weight increase and 44% payload diameter increase. Yet DOD has chosen to implement only one of at least five possible upgrades.

    While not proof, it is very strong evidence that DOD sees little use for anything larger than what they originally ordered.
   -Alex


edit: corrected upgrades; too many ULA sources over time
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 08:51 am by alexw »

Offline marsavian

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #47 on: 10/11/2010 07:34 am »
47mT is still well under half an Ares V's capability, it's still a different league.

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #48 on: 10/11/2010 07:45 am »
It's as though you are arguing that the lack of 150-storey skyscrapers (i.e., DoD payloads that a modestly-enhanced Delta IV Heavy could loft) is evidence that there will soon be 400-storey scrapers (DoD payloads requiring Ares V).

EDIT:  Hyphenation.
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 06:35 am by Proponent »

Offline marsavian

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #49 on: 10/11/2010 08:10 am »
Yeah crazy that, like the difference between launching humans to the ISS and back instead of to the Moon and back, who would need such a step-up improvement like that ? ;)
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 08:12 am by marsavian »

Offline neilh

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #50 on: 10/11/2010 08:48 am »
Yeah crazy that, like the difference between launching humans to the ISS and back instead of to the Moon and back, who would need such a step-up improvement like that ? ;)

To be clear, are you claiming that there's a significant nonlinearity in demand, where there isn't a DoD demand to pay a modest price for a modest lift upgrade, but there is a demand to pay a much higher price for a higher lift upgrade?
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Offline marsavian

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #51 on: 10/11/2010 09:02 am »
The possibility exists I believe which you are completely ruling out based on some simplistic extrapolation. The actual cost to DoD would be less for far more capability as it would only be paying for the marginal unit cost of an Ares V rather than paying for all the development and ongoing fixed costs of any EELV changes. This is where the DoD synergistically benefit by NASA developing a SD-HLV not even taking into account lower SRM costs for its missiles.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 09:03 am by marsavian »

Offline clongton

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #52 on: 10/11/2010 12:20 pm »
This is a useless thread.

First the DoD discusses it's needs only internally and even these are on a need to know basis.
Second nobody inside the DoD is going to tell you what their needs are unless they want to go to jail.
Third unless you are inside the DoD or are part of DoD discussions you have zero knowledge of DoD needs
Fourth if you are inside the DoD then you're not going to tell anyone what their needs are unless you want to go to jail.

This is a useless thread.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 12:21 pm by clongton »
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Offline Scotty

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #53 on: 10/11/2010 01:54 pm »
The title of this thread is - Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?

To my knowledge the answer to that question is no. I know of nothing DOD now has up its sleeve that weighs more than around 20 tons to LEO.
But DOD is not the only Federal Government Agency that flys payloads. Do I have positive proof some other "agency" has a payload built, under development, or being built that exceeds 20 tons to LEO? The answer to that is no.
Still I know a lot of people in the rocket business world, and I'm told things that make me believe larger payloads in the works. Thus the only real and valid questions are - how big and when.

Offline Jim

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #54 on: 10/11/2010 02:11 pm »
DOD includes the NRO.  NRO includes the intelligence community.

A valid requirement is funded and not pie in the sky wish lists.
« Last Edit: 10/11/2010 02:14 pm by Jim »

Offline sdsds

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #55 on: 10/11/2010 07:46 pm »
Some observations/questions:

- Haven't DoD space assets been statistically more likely to change orbits than commercial space assets?

- Don't orbit changes require considerable propellant mass?

- Doesn't US military doctrine require the capability to conduct simultaneous operations in at least two geographically disjoint theaters?

If yes:  might the DoD, when launching an asset into a theater-specific orbit, prefer the option of launching it with sufficient propellant such that it could later be moved into an orbit specific to a different theater of operations?

But if the lift capability for that weren't available, they might find another way, i.e. launch a duplicate asset into the newly desired orbit?
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Offline pathfinder_01

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #56 on: 10/11/2010 07:55 pm »
Some observations/questions:

- Haven't DoD space assets been statistically more likely to change orbits than commercial space assets?

- Don't orbit changes require considerable propellant mass?

- Doesn't US military doctrine require the capability to conduct simultaneous operations in at least two geographically disjoint theaters?

If yes:  might the DoD, when launching an asset into a theater-specific orbit, prefer the option of launching it with sufficient propellant such that it could later be moved into an orbit specific to a different theater of operations?

But if the lift capability for that weren't available, they might find another way, i.e. launch a duplicate asset into the newly desired orbit?


Given the limits on chemical propulsion, I think the last option( launch duplicate into newly desired orbit) is more likely.  I think the DOD would be a customer of a prop depot or of some sort of serving craft.  The DOD has enough budget and clout that if it wanted heavy lift, it could have it.

Offline jongoff

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #57 on: 10/11/2010 08:46 pm »
Some observations/questions:

- Haven't DoD space assets been statistically more likely to change orbits than commercial space assets?

- Don't orbit changes require considerable propellant mass?

- Doesn't US military doctrine require the capability to conduct simultaneous operations in at least two geographically disjoint theaters?

If yes:  might the DoD, when launching an asset into a theater-specific orbit, prefer the option of launching it with sufficient propellant such that it could later be moved into an orbit specific to a different theater of operations?

But if the lift capability for that weren't available, they might find another way, i.e. launch a duplicate asset into the newly desired orbit?


Given the limits on chemical propulsion, I think the last option( launch duplicate into newly desired orbit) is more likely.  I think the DOD would be a customer of a prop depot or of some sort of serving craft.  The DOD has enough budget and clout that if it wanted heavy lift, it could have it.

DARPA has been pushing pretty hard in recent years to push forward robotic orbital servicing (including refueling).

~Jon

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #58 on: 10/12/2010 06:43 am »
First the DoD discusses it's needs only internally and even these are on a need to know basis.
Second nobody inside the DoD is going to tell you what their needs are unless they want to go to jail.
Third unless you are inside the DoD or are part of DoD discussions you have zero knowledge of DoD needs
Fourth if you are inside the DoD then you're not going to tell anyone what their needs are unless you want to go to jail.

That all makes sense to me.  In light of the above, how is it that you and kraisee claim to know that DoD has a need for heavy lift?
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 06:44 am by Proponent »

Offline clongton

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #59 on: 10/12/2010 11:28 am »
First the DoD discusses it's needs only internally and even these are on a need to know basis.
Second nobody inside the DoD is going to tell you what their needs are unless they want to go to jail.
Third unless you are inside the DoD or are part of DoD discussions you have zero knowledge of DoD needs
Fourth if you are inside the DoD then you're not going to tell anyone what their needs are unless you want to go to jail.

That all makes sense to me.  In light of the above, how is it that you and kraisee claim to know that DoD has a need for heavy lift?

See "Third" above.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #60 on: 10/12/2010 02:08 pm »
Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.

Uhhhh... big?
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline alexw

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #61 on: 10/12/2010 07:41 pm »
DoD has five payloads in various stages of development, all of which will require serious Heavy Lift capabilities. ...
Three of them require a 12m diameter payload fairing too. Anyone with half a brain cell can guess what those are going to be.
Uhhhh... big?

    Yeah, I don't get it either. ELINT? Some kind of gargantuan radar? Wouldn't make sense for an optical spysat.
    -Alex

Offline Proponent

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #62 on: 10/13/2010 04:19 am »
First the DoD discusses it's needs only internally and even these are on a need to know basis.
Second nobody inside the DoD is going to tell you what their needs are unless they want to go to jail.
Third unless you are inside the DoD or are part of DoD discussions you have zero knowledge of DoD needs
Fourth if you are inside the DoD then you're not going to tell anyone what their needs are unless you want to go to jail.

That all makes sense to me.  In light of the above, how is it that you and kraisee claim to know that DoD has a need for heavy lift?

See "Third" above.

And why, exactly, would DoD have been willing to discuss this with you and allow you to make it public?

Offline clongton

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #63 on: 10/13/2010 03:51 pm »
First the DoD discusses it's needs only internally and even these are on a need to know basis.
Second nobody inside the DoD is going to tell you what their needs are unless they want to go to jail.
Third unless you are inside the DoD or are part of DoD discussions you have zero knowledge of DoD needs
Fourth if you are inside the DoD then you're not going to tell anyone what their needs are unless you want to go to jail.

That all makes sense to me.  In light of the above, how is it that you and kraisee claim to know that DoD has a need for heavy lift?

See "Third" above.

And why, exactly, would DoD have been willing to discuss this with you and allow you to make it public?

We have mentioned this before, several times, so it's not news.
You will need to ask them why they would have any discussions with us.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline Lars_J

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #64 on: 10/13/2010 04:00 pm »
Chuck - Why do you guys keep digging your hole deeper with this absurd claim?

A DoD "hey, wouldn't it be nice if..." list is NOT a DoD requirement. Appreciate the difference.

Offline clongton

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #65 on: 10/13/2010 05:15 pm »
Chuck - Why do you guys keep digging your hole deeper with this absurd claim?

Did it ever occur to you that somebody might know something that you don't?
Just because you are without knowledge is not a valid reason to dismiss it.
Doing so is the only thing here that demonstrates absurdity.

The fact of the matter is that the DoD does have an HLV need.
The fact that you don't know anything about it is beside the point.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #66 on: 10/13/2010 05:36 pm »
Chuck - Why do you guys keep digging your hole deeper with this absurd claim?

A DoD "hey, wouldn't it be nice if..." list is NOT a DoD requirement. Appreciate the difference.


Look  Chuck has vastly more professional credibility then most other people here. If he says he knows something we don't thats his credibility hes putting on the line.

What credibility do you have to question someone who used to design nuclear submarines (and Saturn engines) for a living? I don't have that kind of credit therefore I will take him at his word.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #67 on: 10/13/2010 09:12 pm »
If the DoD
A) 'books' a payload on SLS or
B) contracts with someone to build an HLV for them
...I'll gladly admit I was wrong.

You can take Chuck at his word all you want. But it ain't happening. That's all I'm going to say on the subject for now.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #68 on: 10/14/2010 03:12 am »
Chuck - Why do you guys keep digging your hole deeper with this absurd claim?

A DoD "hey, wouldn't it be nice if..." list is NOT a DoD requirement. Appreciate the difference.

It is not a requirement, they cost the government money.  It is a node-and-a-wink.  Usable by a company's marketing department to estimate the size of a market.  In fact if the DoD was as open as the above statement then it would be a very very strong hint.  When things are further along it is definitely worth sending the Department of Defence a sales brochure.

Offline Crusty007

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #69 on: 10/24/2010 09:58 pm »
Just a small point, it was made in Jims thread but I didnt want to reply to a 4-month old topic:

About a HLV in a black budget:
You can hide the budget, easily. But you can't hide the launch of a HLV, even if you put it on the south pole (which would be a massive R&D effort just by itself LOL). It would be world news immediately.

If DoD put something big in space its vulnerable to being shot at, so several smaller things are more effective usually than one big thing.

If DoD has a need for a HLV, we'll find out about it anyway because we can just look up and see whatever darn big thing it is they got hanging in space. (I would like to see them put a big stealth satellite in space and have us try to find it, that would be fun)

Offline TrueBlueWitt

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #70 on: 10/25/2010 04:47 am »
Would an 8 or 9m monolithic mirror in GEO give sufficient resolution for Surveillance work? Or perhaps an even larger segmented mirror? 

Park that over the Middle East.. and it would eliminate your surveillance "gaps".. you could change targets over a range of thousands of miles in seconds.
« Last Edit: 10/25/2010 05:00 am by TrueBlueWitt »

Offline madscientist197

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #71 on: 10/25/2010 08:30 am »
No, an eight or nine metre mirror in GEO would not be anywhere near good enough. Too far away -- totally screws your resolution.
John

Offline notsorandom

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #72 on: 10/25/2010 10:16 am »
Would an 8 or 9m monolithic mirror in GEO give sufficient resolution for Surveillance work? Or perhaps an even larger segmented mirror? 

Park that over the Middle East.. and it would eliminate your surveillance "gaps".. you could change targets over a range of thousands of miles in seconds.
If I did the math right an 8 meter mirror at geosynchronous altitude will be able to resolve nothing smaller then 2.5 meters. For a 10 meter mirror 2 meters is the smallest size. Thats a great resolution for civilian applications but not so much for the DoD. Landsat 5 for example has a resolution of 30m per pixel, Ikonos can do 1m and the NRO's tier 2 requirements are 0.25m.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #73 on: 10/25/2010 12:04 pm »
Here's a thought.  It isn't technically a DoD mission (except by a really broad definition of 'defence') but I could see it ending up on their desk.  It might also require a very large lift vehicle.

An all-sky observation platform capable of resolving any object that could be potentially hazardous, either by ground-strike or air-burst (Earth-distance orbit near the ecliptic and at least one axis >100m).  the vehicle I'm thinking of would have dozens of high-resolution cameras pointing in all directions, continually imaging, comparing with the previous image for moving objects and notifying Space Command automatically of any targets.

I presume three vehicles, one at SEL-1 and the other two at SEL-4 and -5.

The size would not be as much an issue as, likely, volume and, more importantly, the need to push it through TOI.  It would probably, including the fuel on the EDS, be a ~40t IMELO launch at the very minimum.
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Offline clongton

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #74 on: 10/25/2010 02:02 pm »
Would an 8 or 9m monolithic mirror in GEO give sufficient resolution for Surveillance work? Or perhaps an even larger segmented mirror? 

Park that over the Middle East.. and it would eliminate your surveillance "gaps".. you could change targets over a range of thousands of miles in seconds.

Insufficient resolution by itself. What would be needed would be 5 of them, separated by a distance of (classified), all electronically ganged together to act in unison. That way you'ld get the resolution down to something like 10cm, or less.
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Offline orbitjunkie

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #75 on: 10/25/2010 03:22 pm »
Here's a thought.  It isn't technically a DoD mission (except by a really broad definition of 'defence') but I could see it ending up on their desk.  It might also require a very large lift vehicle.

An all-sky observation platform capable of resolving any object that could be potentially hazardous, either by ground-strike or air-burst (Earth-distance orbit near the ecliptic and at least one axis >100m).  the vehicle I'm thinking of would have dozens of high-resolution cameras pointing in all directions, continually imaging, comparing with the previous image for moving objects and notifying Space Command automatically of any targets.

I presume three vehicles, one at SEL-1 and the other two at SEL-4 and -5.

The size would not be as much an issue as, likely, volume and, more importantly, the need to push it through TOI.  It would probably, including the fuel on the EDS, be a ~40t IMELO launch at the very minimum.

If you're talking about spotting NEOs, then you'd want something not so close to Earth's orbit for observability reasons. You may recall the thread about it from a while back: http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22413.0

Also, it sounds like Congress has allocated that kind of "defense" responsibility to NASA

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #76 on: 10/25/2010 03:27 pm »
Would an 8 or 9m monolithic mirror in GEO give sufficient resolution for Surveillance work? Or perhaps an even larger segmented mirror? 

Park that over the Middle East.. and it would eliminate your surveillance "gaps".. you could change targets over a range of thousands of miles in seconds.

Insufficient resolution by itself. What would be needed would be 5 of them, separated by a distance of (classified), all electronically ganged together to act in unison. That way you'ld get the resolution down to something like 10cm, or less.

Multiples flying in unison was my other thought.. I remember you mentioning that in one of the DIRECT threads. With sufficient baseline you could do some pretty good 3D imaging as well.. correct?

Could you really push 5 Monolithic mirrors of that size to GEO on one SLS launch?

Offline madscientist197

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #77 on: 10/26/2010 01:06 am »
I think people tend to underestimate how difficult optical interferometry really is. Might work for a static object like a star or planet, but moving/transient objects are something altogether different.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2010 01:07 am by madscientist197 »
John

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #78 on: 10/26/2010 01:23 pm »
This is all a great reason for NASA to never own a rocket again. The DOD has pretty much unlimited budget. NASA should stick to developing an architecture that is based around existing launchers and flexible enough to incorporate new launchers as commercial or DOD develops them. If Congress wants to help just mandate that any new DOD launchers have to be human rated. It's much easier to do when you are designing them.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #79 on: 10/27/2010 11:17 pm »
Regarding the resolution possible for a certain-sized aperture (which is of great consequence to DoD heavy lift requirements), I uploaded an educational video demonstrating the concepts of diffraction-limited optics, which can be found publicly on wikipedia:

EDIT: I intended this to be just a link, but the forum software automatically embeds it. Let me know if this is a problem.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffraction#Diffraction-limited_imaging

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/phyopt/cirapp2.html#c2

Obviously, if you have the wavelength, the altitude, and the resolution of your Earth-observing satellite, you can very easily derive the aperture size. There is nothing classified or sensitive about that.
« Last Edit: 10/28/2010 12:01 am by Robotbeat »
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Does DoD Have a Requirement for Heavy Lift?
« Reply #80 on: 10/28/2010 04:13 pm »
I agree it doesn't tell the whole story, but if you're just seeing roughly how big of an aperture you'll need for a certain resolution (and with realistic snr, etc), then the equation works pretty well. And maybe you can make a good case for just using m=1 instead of 1.22, but I didn't want to give the impression it was just based on an argument from dimensional analysis. I was trying to explain the "heuristic" to folks with only a knowledge of algebra (and admittedly, it was pretty boring and long-winded, so says my wife who started involuntarily yawning when she watched it ;) ). I would WELCOME a better explanation!!! Especially one that would explain the very basic concept (and how to apply it) to someone with just an understanding of algebra and a little trig.

And remember, this isn't astronomy where you have basically a black background and are just trying to split a binary made of two stars of approximately the same magnitude.

PS, you won the last argument, I don't want to repeat. :)
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

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