Author Topic: SpaceX less is more.  (Read 43910 times)

Offline Prober

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SpaceX less is more.
« on: 04/23/2011 08:42 pm »
I’ve been very impressed with SpaceX, and it got me back to my space interests.   However the last couple of news releases etc. are changing my opinions on the company.

“Private US Company SpaceX hopes to put an astronaut on Mars within 10 to 20 years, the head of the firm said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110423/ts_alt_afp/usspacecompanyspacex_20110423154740

Sorry this is way over the top for me.  I would prefer in the future less hype, and more concrete technical advancements.  It’s uncomforting your firm receiving millions of US taxpayer funds for crew designs, then to have this hype put out there.    Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

So in the future less is more….
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Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #1 on: 04/23/2011 08:49 pm »
Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

No we dont, that is exactly the point of COTS/CRS/CCDev in that the US taxpayers do not own the designs.  If we did, Falcon 9/Dragon would be another government program like the shuttle or constellation.

However I do echo the hype comment, but remember that those comments were made by Elon Musk, would be more interesting to hear what the engineers and middle management think. Elon Musk does not equal SpaceX even if he does own the company.

Offline Avariel

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #2 on: 04/23/2011 08:54 pm »
Having seen what SpaceX under Elon Musk have done so far I would not discount this out of hand.

That said Elon Musk comes across as a man with a vision, that vision being Humanity as a space faring race. So aspiring to launching people to Mars is bound to be part of that vision as it is the next logical step. That is unless Zefram Cochrane comes up with a functional warp drive in the near future. ^_^

One step at a time though, they have a Falcon Heavy to launch and a man rated Dragon capsule to build before they can plan for Mars.

Lets see how this pans out over the next 20 years.

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #3 on: 04/23/2011 08:58 pm »
The is the new business model NASA needs to adopt.

The need for nine centers is long gone.  NASA will need to figure out how to cut the bureaucracy. 

I am not even sure it can be done.

NASA is a microcosm of the bigger, federal budget.  Consuming more, doing less; no fault of NASA employees and contractors.

VR
TEA
RE327

You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

Offline neilh

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #4 on: 04/23/2011 09:00 pm »
I’ve been very impressed with SpaceX, and it got me back to my space interests.   However the last couple of news releases etc. are changing my opinions on the company.

“Private US Company SpaceX hopes to put an astronaut on Mars within 10 to 20 years, the head of the firm said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110423/ts_alt_afp/usspacecompanyspacex_20110423154740

Sorry this is way over the top for me.  I would prefer in the future less hype, and more concrete technical advancements.  It’s uncomforting your firm receiving millions of US taxpayer funds for crew designs, then to have this hype put out there.    Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

So in the future less is more….


FYI, the 10-20 years thing was in response to a specific question about Mars timelines, and not a press release in any way. I'm also not sure I see how the CEO talking about future plans has any negative impact on the work SpaceX is currently doing on LEO crew capsules.
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #5 on: 04/23/2011 09:23 pm »
I’ve been very impressed with SpaceX, and it got me back to my space interests.   However the last couple of news releases etc. are changing my opinions on the company.

“Private US Company SpaceX hopes to put an astronaut on Mars within 10 to 20 years, the head of the firm said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110423/ts_alt_afp/usspacecompanyspacex_20110423154740

Sorry this is way over the top for me.  I would prefer in the future less hype, and more concrete technical advancements.  It’s uncomforting your firm receiving millions of US taxpayer funds for crew designs, then to have this hype put out there.    Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

So in the future less is more….

He was asked a very specific question, and if you notice, Mr Musk was laughing while answering the question. 

I agree the Mars thing is a bit overblown, but if NASA had a specific "don't do business with nutty brilliant people", then they would need to never do business with Branson, Rutan, Carmack, Masten, Bigelow, Diamandis, or Musk.  We don't want that do we?
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Offline joek

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #6 on: 04/23/2011 10:41 pm »
Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it!

Key difference is that NASA is buying services (e.g., CRS), not widgets.  Instantiating those services may require the development of widgets (and in this case does), but that is not intrinsic.

Granted, the development of those widgets is not without risk to both parties.  That type of shared risk (and shared cost) is not unusual in the commercial world.  Key is that there is shared risk, and thus there must be shared reward.

FYI, the 10-20 years thing was in response to a specific question about Mars timelines, and not a press release in any way. I'm also not sure I see how the CEO talking about future plans has any negative impact on the work SpaceX is currently doing on LEO crew capsules.

Agree.  Context is important.  I see no problem with Musk talking about his vision and the future--especially when asked a direct question. Good that he has a vision.  And if he can get more people interested and excited about space--that is, people who aren't already space buffs--wonderful.

I agree the Mars thing is a bit overblown, but if NASA had a specific "don't do business with nutty brilliant people", then they would need to never do business with Branson, Rutan, Carmack, Masten, Bigelow, Diamandis, or Musk.  We don't want that do we?

Not to mention Von Braun et. al.  ;)

Offline edkyle99

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #7 on: 04/23/2011 11:26 pm »
Not to mention Von Braun et. al.  ;)

No kidding!  Von Braun was dreaming of ways to put people on Mars, in space stations, on the Moon, etc., long before any of this rockets had reached orbit.  He wrote books about it, promoted such fantastic ideas on TV with Disney, and talked about it deep into the night during dinner parties with friends.  Big thinking like this, diverted a bit by political and fiscal realities, put the first humans on the Moon.

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Offline joek

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #8 on: 04/24/2011 12:45 am »
No kidding!  Von Braun was dreaming of ways to put people on Mars, in space stations, on the Moon, etc., long before any of this rockets had reached orbit.

Yup; von Braun was definitely "nutty brilliant".  And as you point out, von Braun used many popular outlets to promote his vision, not just space- and engineering-nerd venues.

So let's cut Musk some slack for doing the same and engaging in a bit of hyperbole when the opportunity presents itself.  Musk has a vision and potentially the means to execute.  We could use more of both.

And no, I'm not suggesting that Musk and von Braun are equals.  They are very different animals.  Both had/have a vision, but very different paths to execution.  Different times and circumstances call for different means and measures.

Offline Nascent Ascent

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #9 on: 04/24/2011 01:00 am »
Prober,

I'd give SpaceX and Elon some slack.  Saying that they "hope" to have someone on Mars in 20 years isn't really a promise or something that anyone could really hold them to.  It was an off-the-cuff comment where the key word is "hope".

I'm perfectly fine with this tone of optimism.  We sure could use someone with the vision-thing that also has demonstrated some level of competence.

Offline neilh

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #10 on: 04/24/2011 01:07 am »
So let's cut Musk some slack for doing the same and engaging in a bit of hyperbole when the opportunity presents itself.  Musk has a vision and potentially the means to execute.  We could use more of both.

This is probably just wishful thinking, but another possibility is that it wasn't (intentional) hyperbole. For example, maybe Musk has as-yet-unannounced friend(s) with even more money than himself (along the lines of Larry Page or Paul Allen)  interested in partnering with him and providing the funding for human Mars missions. There's plenty of good reasons for why something like that wouldn't be announced for at least a few more years.
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #11 on: 04/24/2011 01:19 am »
This is probably just wishful thinking, but another possibility is that it wasn't (intentional) hyperbole. For example, maybe Musk has as-yet-unannounced friend(s) with even more money than himself (along the lines of Larry Page or Paul Allen)  interested in partnering with him and providing the funding for human Mars missions. There's plenty of good reasons for why something like that wouldn't be announced for at least a few more years.

I can't help but think that once SpaceX has 10-15 "second hand" dragon capsules, and Bigelow has an established Sundancer manned in orbit, that some people are going to start shopping 1sts in the history book.

There are over 1000 Billionaires in the world right now, and the vast majority of them will not be remembered by history.  How best to immortalize yourself than to be the 1st to do something like a Mars Flyby or Venus Flyby.
No Bucks no Buck Rogers, but at least Flexible path gets you Twiki.

Offline neilh

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #12 on: 04/24/2011 01:43 am »
Another way to look at things is to consider Elon Musk's stated plan to retire on Mars. If he chooses a typical retirement age of 65, that's about 25 years from now. Sergey Brin ($19.8B) and Larry Page ($19.8B) are about the same age. Jeff Bezos ($18.1B) is 47, Paul Allen ($13B) is 58. It's also quite common for folks in software/technology to retire considerably earlier than 65, and I imagine they'd want to be in good shape for the trip.
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #13 on: 04/24/2011 02:41 am »
I’ve been very impressed with SpaceX, and it got me back to my space interests.   However the last couple of news releases etc. are changing my opinions on the company.

“Private US Company SpaceX hopes to put an astronaut on Mars within 10 to 20 years, the head of the firm said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110423/ts_alt_afp/usspacecompanyspacex_20110423154740

Sorry this is way over the top for me.  I would prefer in the future less hype, and more concrete technical advancements.  It’s uncomforting your firm receiving millions of US taxpayer funds for crew designs, then to have this hype put out there.    Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

So in the future less is more….


FYI, the 10-20 years thing was in response to a specific question about Mars timelines, and not a press release in any way. I'm also not sure I see how the CEO talking about future plans has any negative impact on the work SpaceX is currently doing on LEO crew capsules.

The reporter is from the Wall street Journal. The story was picked up by AFP.  On Yahoo this was front page news.

2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Offline neilh

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #14 on: 04/24/2011 02:49 am »
I’ve been very impressed with SpaceX, and it got me back to my space interests.   However the last couple of news releases etc. are changing my opinions on the company.

“Private US Company SpaceX hopes to put an astronaut on Mars within 10 to 20 years, the head of the firm said.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110423/ts_alt_afp/usspacecompanyspacex_20110423154740

Sorry this is way over the top for me.  I would prefer in the future less hype, and more concrete technical advancements.  It’s uncomforting your firm receiving millions of US taxpayer funds for crew designs, then to have this hype put out there.    Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

So in the future less is more….


FYI, the 10-20 years thing was in response to a specific question about Mars timelines, and not a press release in any way. I'm also not sure I see how the CEO talking about future plans has any negative impact on the work SpaceX is currently doing on LEO crew capsules.

The reporter is from the Wall street Journal. The story was picked up by AFP.  On Yahoo this was front page news.



Could you elaborate on why you think it would have a negative impact?
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Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #15 on: 04/24/2011 03:11 am »
No kidding!  Von Braun was dreaming of ways to put people on Mars, in space stations, on the Moon, etc., long before any of this rockets had reached orbit.

Yup; von Braun was definitely "nutty brilliant".  And as you point out, von Braun used many popular outlets to promote his vision, not just space- and engineering-nerd venues.

So let's cut Musk some slack for doing the same and engaging in a bit of hyperbole when the opportunity presents itself.  Musk has a vision and potentially the means to execute.  We could use more of both.

And no, I'm not suggesting that Musk and von Braun are equals.  They are very different animals.  Both had/have a vision, but very different paths to execution.  Different times and circumstances call for different means and measures.

First off I enjoy your posts. NASA needs another Von Braun in these times.

Atm NASA is in the public eye with the public and the cancellation of the Space Shuttle.  This is a very dangerous time and “perception” of how the money is being spent is going to be more important each day as the 012 budget is being done.

Can you imagine congress doing the cuts this year?    We can’t cut funding for these kids, they will starve see a nice 58 billion dollars to take funds from. 

History books of late have been rewritten about the Apollo programs end.  If you can find some of the older newspapers etc of the time you find very little interest in the space program after the first couple of moon landings.   Finally fully finished Saturn vehicles were left to rot like the space program, as it transitioned to the Space Shuttle.

We are in the very same or worse times as when Apollo was phased out.   The president said we’ve been to the moon, why go there again?   Let’s do an asteroid landing. Please.
Need I go on where this kind of thinking goes?     

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Offline neilh

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #16 on: 04/24/2011 03:15 am »
Just remember SpaceX, you taking taxpayer funds for the R&D  of the crew module.   We the US tax payers own it! 

... actually, pretty much the whole point of going with a commercial approach is that the US taxpayers -don't- own it, any more than the US taxpayer owns the Boeing 747.
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Offline mr_magoo

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #17 on: 04/24/2011 04:11 pm »
I think the hype they put forward is interesting.  It reminds me of Robert Truax on the Tonight Show.   Someone making an end run around the establishment to make a pitch to the public.  It's less about specific plans and more about excitement, PR and getting their name and ideas out there.

With the new lobbyists and more awareness from the public they might be hoping to pressure some politicians fon multiple fronts.  Which is fair play for a private company.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #18 on: 04/24/2011 04:31 pm »
We are in the very same or worse times as when Apollo was phased out.   The president said we’ve been to the moon, why go there again?   Let’s do an asteroid landing. Please.
Need I go on where this kind of thinking goes?     

If I understand your message, you are suggesting that claims of plans for Mars, etc, made by Mr. Musk endanger NASA funding?

Here's how I view things.  NASA funding is already endangered, Musk or not.  Both U.S. political parties agree that big budget cuts are required, trillions of dollars worth, so they are coming.  Social programs will be cut, and so will defense and science and payouts to farmers for not farming, etc.  It all has to be cut, and we'll all have to pay more taxes too. 

NASA won't weather this storm unscathed.  The current lack of firm future planning makes it a giant target for cuts. 

SpaceX, in my view, isn't going to Mars or even Earth orbit by itself.  It is currently existing largely on NASA funding.  The company's plans for Falcon Heavy show that it wants big DoD money too.  So the coming budget cuts aren't going to be good for NASA or any contractor, including SpaceX. 

But the cuts have nothing to do with Mr. Musk's vision of the future.  They are a result of decades of the U.S. living beyond its means while not defending its manufacturing base and its middle class.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline Prober

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Re: SpaceX less is more.
« Reply #19 on: 04/24/2011 09:54 pm »
We are in the very same or worse times as when Apollo was phased out.   The president said we’ve been to the moon, why go there again?   Let’s do an asteroid landing. Please.
Need I go on where this kind of thinking goes?     

If I understand your message, you are suggesting that claims of plans for Mars, etc, made by Mr. Musk endanger NASA funding?

Here's how I view things.  NASA funding is already endangered, Musk or not.  Both U.S. political parties agree that big budget cuts are required, trillions of dollars worth, so they are coming.  Social programs will be cut, and so will defense and science and payouts to farmers for not farming, etc.  It all has to be cut, and we'll all have to pay more taxes too. 

NASA won't weather this storm unscathed.  The current lack of firm future planning makes it a giant target for cuts. 

SpaceX, in my view, isn't going to Mars or even Earth orbit by itself.  It is currently existing largely on NASA funding.  The company's plans for Falcon Heavy show that it wants big DoD money too.  So the coming budget cuts aren't going to be good for NASA or any contractor, including SpaceX. 

But the cuts have nothing to do with Mr. Musk's vision of the future.  They are a result of decades of the U.S. living beyond its means while not defending its manufacturing base and its middle class.

 - Ed Kyle

You said the truth in a way much better than I did.  My feeling is that NASA needs a von Braun type out there promoting a mars Vision.  A private firm doing NASA's job atm is counterproductive for a stable NASA.


2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant..." --Isoroku Yamamoto

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