SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 2-4 : VSFB SLC-4E : 19 January 2023 (15:43 UTC)

[zubenelgenubi]

Thread for the Starlink 2-4 group launch.

NSF Threads for Starlink 2-4: Discussion

Launch January 19, 2023 at 7:43 am PST (15:43 UTC), from Vandenberg SLC-4E, on booster 1075.1 1061-11.  Landing will be aboard Of Course I Still Love You.

Payload 51 52 Starlink satellites to 70 degree inclination on a south-southeastern trajectory.  Initial orbit 215 x 335 km.

Starlink v1.5 satellite mass is now about 300kg after the addition of laser ISL terminals.

Please use the Starlink Discussion Thread for all general discussion on Starlink.

Check the Starlink Index Thread for links to more Starlink information.


L2 SpaceX: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?board=60.0

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

1703-EX-ST-2022
SpaceX Mission 1599 Starlink Group 2-4 from SLC-4E,
ASDS    North  29  11  36   West  117  45  52
NET November [November 7]

How will the launch schedule shake out with Starlink 4-31 also pending?

Edit October 21: Starlink 4-31 scheduled for October 28 UTC.

[AmigaClone]

Cross-post:

1703-EX-ST-2022
SpaceX Mission 1599 Starlink Group 2-4 from SLC-4E,
ASDS    North  29  11  36   West  117  45  52
NET November [November 7]

How will the launch schedule shake out with Starlink 4-31 also pending?

I suspect that Starlink Group 2-4 might see a launch attempt between 10 and 15 November 2022. If it doesn't launch in that window, I can see it possibly not launching until 2023. 

[zubenelgenubi]

NextSpaceFlight, updated October 23:
First stage is 1061.11.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

http://www.spacearchive.info/vafbsked.htm [Oct 22 update]

NOV 29    To be announced    Falcon 9    SLC-4E    Vehicle will launch several Starlink satellites into orbit.

This launch would be 6 days before SWOT; apparently too close together in time for back-to-back Vandenberg Falcon 9 launches--unless this is to be another SpaceX improvement.

Edit: SWOT first stage LZ-4 landing removes OCISLY availability difficulty.

However...

I will clarify my thoughts by stating, as gongora does below, I don't think SpaceX would schedule a Starlink launch 6 days before SWOT.  A stronger source is needed.

[wannamoonbase]

Cross-post:

http://www.spacearchive.info/vafbsked.htm [Oct 22 update]

NOV 29    To be announced    Falcon 9    SLC-4E    Vehicle will launch several Starlink satellites into orbit.

This launch would be 6 days before SWOT; apparently too close together in time for back-to-back Vandenberg Falcon 9 launches--unless this is to be another SpaceX improvement.

Well SWOT should be a RTLS landing, so the ASDS should not be a limitation.

6 days seems very short, especially for an external customer like NASA.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

http://www.spacearchive.info/vafbsked.htm [Oct 22 update]

NOV 29    To be announced    Falcon 9    SLC-4E    Vehicle will launch several Starlink satellites into orbit.

This launch would be 6 days before SWOT; apparently too close together in time for back-to-back Vandenberg Falcon 9 launches--unless this is to be another SpaceX improvement.

Well SWOT should be a RTLS landing, so the ASDS should not be a limitation.

6 days seems very short, especially for an external customer like NASA.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=41678.msg2355094#msg2355094
SFN Launch Schedule lists SWOT with an ASDS booster landing.

[Alexphysics]

Except we know SWOT is going to be RTLS from the FCC permits. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg2420545#msg2420545

RTLS from Vandy, NET early December.  Kinda lines up with SWOT.
1752-EX-ST-2022

[russianhalo117]

Except we know SWOT is going to be RTLS from the FCC permits. https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45440.msg2420545#msg2420545

As always this is subject to change.

[gongora]

I wouldn't believe that November 29 date without a much better source.  No way they have a Starlink schedule from Vandy six days before SWOT.

[realnouns]

Of course, also possibility SWOT gets pushed back.  SWOT updates below (date of update - from who - launch target):
Aug 25 - NASA - Dec 5
Sep 6 - Thales - NET Dec 5
Oct 17 - Thales - Dec
Oct 20 - NASA - Dec

The Dec 5 SWOT launch date estimate has weakened to just December over the last couple months

[gongora]

That's another possibility.

[Galactic Penguin SST]

NextSpaceFlight, updated November 10:
Launch November 17 03:22 UTC
= November 16, 7:22 pm PST

[Ken the Bin]

This generic NGA Hazardous Operations notice appears to be for this launch.

081911Z NOV 22
NAVAREA XII 857/22(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS: 
   A. 170242Z TO 170710Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      180228Z TO 180656Z, 190214Z TO 190642Z, 
      200201Z TO 200628Z, 210147Z TO 210614Z NOV
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08.00N 120-05.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40.00N 119-31.00W,
      33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
   B. 170242Z TO 170711Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      180228Z TO 180657Z, 190214Z TO 190643Z, 
      200201Z TO 200629Z, 210147Z TO 210615Z NOV
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
   C. 170435Z TO 170816Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      180421Z TO 180802Z, 190407Z TO 190748Z,
      200354Z TO 200734Z, 210340Z TO 210720Z 
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      35-19.00N 144-30.00W, 36-12.00N 142-29.00W,
      52-02.00N 153-16.00W, 51-09.00N 155-54.00W.

[OneSpeed]

This generic NGA Hazardous Operations notice appears to be for this launch.

Map from the NGA notice. The coordinates do appear to match the 70° orbital inclination. ASDS 662km downrange.

[VLN]

081911Z NOV 22
NAVAREA XII 857/22(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS: 
   A. 

Where do you find this? The links I use at msi.nga.mil are now 4 days stale, ending at no. 846.

[Ken the Bin]

081911Z NOV 22
NAVAREA XII 857/22(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS: 
   A. 

Where do you find this? The links I use at msi.nga.mil are now 4 days stale, ending at no. 846.

I don't use the website, I subscribe to the mailing lists.  The website is always behind, though not usually four days behind.

[Ken the Bin]

A cancel-and-replace NGA notice.  In addition to slipping to November 17/18, the time has also moved 1 hour and 20 minutes later (relative to the original time for November 18 UTC, not the November 17 time).

150000Z NOV 22
NAVAREA XII 876/22(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS: 
   A. 180348Z TO 180656Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      190334Z TO 190642Z, 200320Z TO 200628Z,
      210306Z TO 210614Z, 220252Z TO 220600Z NOV
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08.00N 120-05.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40.00N 119-31.00W,
      33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
   B. 180348Z TO 180657Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      190334Z TO 190643Z, 200320Z TO 200629Z,
      210306Z TO 210615Z, 220252Z TO 220601Z NOV
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
   C. 180541Z TO 180802Z NOV, ALTERNATE 
      190527Z TO 190748Z, 200513Z TO 200734Z,
      210459Z TO 210720Z, 220445Z TO 220706Z NOV
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      35-19.00N 144-30.00W, 36-12.00N 142-29.00W,
      52-02.00N 153-16.00W, 51-09.00N 155-54.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 857/22.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 220806Z NOV 22.

[VLN]

A cancel-and-replace NGA notice.  In addition to slipping to November 17/18, the time has also moved 1 hour and 20 minutes later (relative to the original time for November 18 UTC, not the November 17 time).

Same exact footprints of the three zones. As you say, the start of the window for each day has shifted by 80 min, but the end has not changed. So the window is 80 min shorter each day. If the launch time also shifts by 80 min, that suggests the orbit is the same except for a 20 deg eastward shift of the ascending node. That's a significant change in the orbit, but I don't know what it means for the distribution of satellites.

[AmigaClone]

A cancel-and-replace NGA notice.  In addition to slipping to November 17/18, the time has also moved 1 hour and 20 minutes later (relative to the original time for November 18 UTC, not the November 17 time).

Same exact footprints of the three zones. As you say, the start of the window for each day has shifted by 80 min, but the end has not changed. So the window is 80 min shorter each day. If the launch time also shifts by 80 min, that suggests the orbit is the same except for a 20 deg eastward shift of the ascending node. That's a significant change in the orbit, but I don't know what it means for the distribution of satellites.

Per the 27 April 2021 modification of the original Starlink constellation Group 2 has 36 orbital planes with 20 satellites per plane. Unless they are targeting certain planes based on those occupied by satellites from the first one, it might not make much difference exactly when the launch time occurs.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/raul74cz/status/1592464664990191616

LHA map for #Starlink Group 2-4 from VSFB SLC-4E NET 18 Nov 04:28 UTC, alternatively 19 to 22 Nov based on issued NOTMAR. B1061.11 planned landing with roughly estimated fairing recovery approx. 662km downrange. Stage2 debris reentry in North Pacific. bit.do/LHA21

[kevin-rf]

Per the 27 April 2021 modification of the original Starlink constellation Group 2 has 36 orbital planes with 20 satellites per plane. Unless they are targeting certain planes based on those occupied by satellites from the first one, it might not make much difference exactly when the launch time occurs.

Depending on the time of day they launch a percentage of time the satellites spend in shadow each orbit will vary. That can vary greatly for a 70 degree orbit.  The less time the initial orbit spends in shadow the faster orbit raising can be.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7030 [Nov 15 update]

Starlink Group 2-4
Launch Time
Fri Nov 18, 2022 04:28 GMT

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1592591795510190082

Departure! OCISLY droneship is outbound for Starlink 2-4 from VSFB.

[SpaceFinnOriginal]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1592591795510190082

Departure! OCISLY droneship is outbound for Starlink 2-4 from VSFB.

How far downrange?

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1592691057451765766

CelesTrak has pre-launch SupGP data for the upcoming #Starlink Group 2-4 launch from Vandenberg SFB scheduled for 2022-11-18 at 04:39:00 UTC. Deployment of 52 satellites is set for 05:08:08.300 UTC: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/.

[realnouns]

This may be the least amount of time between OCISLY departure and launch of Starlink from VAFB so far at 2.41 days.  Next closest I see is Starlink 4-11 at 2.77 days. 

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1592591795510190082

Departure! OCISLY droneship is outbound for Starlink 2-4 from VSFB.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Actually it's not VSFB but Long Beach, Port of Los Angeles. VSFB only has a single  barge dock.

[Rondaz]

Upcoming 33rd #Starlink launch of this year via #SpaceX's #Falcon9 vehicle..

Booster supporting this mission..

https://twitter.com/_rykllan/status/1593210195072913408

[Elthiryel]

https://www.spacex.com/launches/sl2-4/

SpaceX is targeting Friday, November 18 for a Falcon 9 launch of 52 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 8:25 p.m. PT (04:25 UTC on November 19), and a backup opportunity is available on Saturday, November 19 at 8:11 p.m. PT (04:11 UTC on November 20).

The first stage booster supporting this mission previously launched Crew-1, Crew-2, SXM-8, CRS-23, IXPE, Transporter-4, Transporter-5, Globalstar FM15, and two Starlink missions. Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff.

00:01:12   Max Q (moment of peak mechanical stress on the rocket)
00:02:27   1st stage main engine cutoff (MECO)
00:02:31   1st and 2nd stages separate
00:02:37   2nd stage engine starts (SES-1)
00:02:42   Fairing deployment
00:06:46   1st stage entry burn start
00:07:04   1st stage entry burn complete
00:08:23   1st stage landing burn start
00:08:42   2nd stage engine cutoff (SECO-1)
00:08:45   1st stage landing
00:29:03   Starlink satellites deploy

Webcast:

[Elthiryel]

Additionally, it turns out there was a static fire today.

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1593302307721998339

Static fire test of Falcon 9 complete – targeting Friday, November 18 for launch of 52 Starlink satellites to orbit from SLC-4E in California → http://spacex.com/launches/sl2-4/

[soltasto]

"Press kit" with OCR

[zubenelgenubi]

Why a Static Fire for B1061.11?  Standard test before eleventh launch?

Static fire test of Falcon 9 complete – targeting Friday, November 18 for launch of 52 Starlink satellites to orbit from SLC-4E in California. [Nov 17]

Edit to add; Static  Fire? 🔥
1049.11  TBA
1051.11  yes
1058.11  no
1060.11  no
1061.11  yes
1062.11  TBA

[EspenU]

Why a Static Fire for B1061.11?  Standard test before eleventh launch?

Static fire test of Falcon 9 complete – targeting Friday, November 18 for launch of 52 Starlink satellites to orbit from SLC-4E in California. [Nov 17]

Edit to add; Static  Fire?
1049.11  TBA
1051.11  yes
1058.11  no
1060.11  no
1061.11  yes
1062.11  TBA

Standard after swapping a certain number (3?) of engines since the previous flight.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1593352081397514240

.@SpaceX has informed us that the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch has been moved back to  2022-11-19 at 04:25:10 UTC with deployment now set for 04:54:18.300 UTC. Pre-launch SupGP data on CelesTrak has been updated: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/

[Ken the Bin]

Per this NGA notice, this launch is now TBD.

172358Z NOV 22
NAVAREA XII 892/22(GEN).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
CANCEL NAVAREA XII 876/22 AND THIS MSG,
OPERATIONS SUSPENDED.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1593404756461961216

Standing down from tomorrow's launch of Starlink to take a closer look at data from static fire; will announce a new target launch date once confirmed

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1593583898985758720

The West Coast recovery fleet, including OCISLY droneship, are heading back towards port which suggests this stand down might last 2 -3 days at least.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1593984239308984322

Of Course I Still Love You droneship should arrive back at the Port of Long Beach around midday PT today,.

SpaceX has stood down from the Starlink launch from VSFB for now to review static fire data.

[Rondaz]

Weather not the cause of tonight's scrub. Meanwhile, a west coast Falcon 9 is also having an extended delay due to technical issues. No word on wether or not they are related, and if they could affect the Space Station resupply launch scheduled for Tuesday.

https://twitter.com/nextspaceflight/status/1594870326412075010

[zubenelgenubi]

The entry for Starlink 2-4 on the SFN Launch Schedule, updated November 22, is garbled; apparently mixed with the Starlink 2-2 information.

First days of December launch?

Or, would launch be delayed into late December to allow the SWOT launch campaign to proceed to its December 12 launch?

Edited

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 2-4 NET December, from SFN, SpaceX launches Dragon cargo ship to deliver new solar arrays to space station, November 26:

The launch Saturday was the 54th SpaceX mission so far in 2022. SpaceX aims to launch around a half-dozen Falcon 9 rockets from Florida and California by the end of December to reach the company’s goal of 60 missions this year.

The next Falcon 9 launch is scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 30, carrying a commercial lunar lander into space for the Japanese company ispace. The privately-developed spacecraft will attempt to become the first commercial mission to make a soft landing on the moon next year.

(unless in the now-unlikely possibility Starlink 2-4 is very shortly announced to launch on November 30 after HAKUTO-R)

[zubenelgenubi]

Dec 15        Vand SLC-4E   SWOT
Dec 29        Vand SLC-4E   EROS C3 no. 1
NET Jan?   Vand SLC-4E   Starlink 2-4

(Caveat: A first-days of December launch could be announced very soon and then quickly executed.  But, there are no new launch notices published, and OCISLY has not departed for the ASDS landing zone.  And, SpaceX might need to accomplish a second, successful Static Fire before launch.

On the other hand, the first stages for both SWOT and EROS C3 will land at LZ-4.  OCISLY does not need to sail out, return, and sail out again as a launch campaign constraint.

What is the minimum turn-around time at SLC-4E? I recall that SpaceX practiced some time-saving measures earlier this year.)

Edited

[zubenelgenubi]

SFN, SpaceX rocket trouble postpones Japanese moon lander launch, November 30

A Falcon 9 was supposed to launch Nov. 18 from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California with 52 Starlink internet satellites, but SpaceX announced on the eve of the mission that managers decided to stand down from the launch to evaluate data from a test-firing of the rocket. A new target launch date for that Starlink mission has not been announced, but two other Falcon 9 flights from California appear to have jumped ahead of it on SpaceX’s calendar, indicating it will likely not occur until January.

Dec 15        Vand SLC-4E   SWOT
Dec 29        Vand SLC-4E   EROS C3 no. 1
NET Jan?   Vand SLC-4E   Starlink 2-4

NET mid January?

Edited

[zubenelgenubi]

Confirmation:

NextSpaceFlight, updated December 12:
Launch NET January 2023

First stage 1063.9?  The other two first stages based at Vandenberg are assigned to December launches.

Edit December 16: Yes.

B1071.6

Another day, another launch. SpaceX's Falcon 9 rolled out to the pad at Vandenberg yesterday, as seen in this image from
@nasahqphoto.

B1071 is going for its 6th flight tomorrow [Dec 15] at 3:46am PST with the SWOT surface water survey mission. [Dec 14]

EROS C3 #1 will use B1061.11, currently scheduled for launch on December 29 UTC:

Per https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7047
will be on B1061.11 [Dec 13]

Edited

[zubenelgenubi]

NextSpaceFlight, updated December 16:
First stage 1063.9

[zubenelgenubi]

Perhaps:
This launch could happen in close chronological proximity to the January 9 UTC OneWeb launch and the January 12 Falcon Heavy launch.

[Alexphysics]

Notices have gone out for this launch on the 8th local time, 9th UTC.

[crandles57]

9th 2:54 UTC per Nextspaceflight
https://nextspaceflight.com/launches/details/7030

[Ken the Bin]

I received this generic Hazardous Operations NGA notice, however it is for the same time each day, which is not what I would expect for this launch.

040041Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 4/23(18, 21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0254Z TO 0638Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 JAN.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40N 120-17.00W, 
   34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08N 120-05.00W, 
   32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40N 119-31.00W, 
   33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55N 120-17.00W, 
   34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33N 120-38.00W.
2. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS 0254Z TO 0639Z DAILY 09 THRU 13 JAN.
   IN AREAS BOUND BY
   30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W, 
   29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W, 
   28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130739Z JAN 23.

[VLN]

I received this generic Hazardous Operations NGA notice, however it is for the same time each day, which is not what I would expect for this launch.

These launch hazard zones match the old ones exactly. Now the first window is Sun Jan 8 from 6:54pm-10:38pm PST, with backup options at the same time every night until Jan 12. Clearly this will be a drone ship landing.

In the November 18 windows, duration was 3:08 with a 14 min/day shift (earlier). I assume that's happening here, too, mostly hidden within the 3:44 windows.

[realnouns]

Would this be the shortest pad turnaround time for SLC-4E at 9.8 days?

[striver]

Would this be the shortest pad turnaround time for SLC-4E at 9.8 days?

Current record - 11.67 days.

[zubenelgenubi]

NextSpaceFlight, updated January 4:
Launch January 10 02:54 UTC = January 9 6:54 pm PST

[Ken the Bin]

New cancel-and-replace NGA notice for the postponement to January 10 UTC.

042343Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 5/23(18, 21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 0254Z TO 0638Z DAILY 10 THRU 13 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40N 120-17.00W, 
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08N 120-05.00W, 
      32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40N 119-31.00W, 
      33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55N 120-17.00W, 
      34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33N 120-38.00W.
   B. 254Z TO 0639Z DAILY 10 THRU 13 JAN
      IN AREAS BOUND BY
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W, 
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W, 
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 4/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 130739Z JAN 23.

[Ken the Bin]

The FCC ATCSCC Current Operations Plan now includes this launch, the times make a lot more sense than the NGA notice.

https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

SPACE X STARLINK 2-4, VANDENBERG SFS
PRIMARY:        01/10/23        0350Z-0627Z
B CKUP:         01/11/23        0337Z-0613Z
                01/12/23        0323Z-0559Z

[alugobi]

Might be raining at about launch time.

[zubenelgenubi]

Cross-post:

NextSpaceFlight, updated January 5:

Starlink Group 2-4
Launch Time
Tue Jan 10, 2023 03:50 GMT

= January 9 7:50 pm PST

[Ken the Bin]

NGA Space Debris notice that appears to be for this launch, though it has more days than the Hazardous Operations notice.

060946Z JAN 23
HYDROPAC 69/23(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS
   0427Z TO 0757Z DAILY 10 THRU 16 JAN
   IN AREA BOUND BY
   27-48.00S 123-05.00W, 26-58.00S 120-51.00W,
   57-25.00S 098-33.00W, 58-15.00S 102-16.00W.
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 160857Z JAN 23.//

[alugobi]

This one got bumped a day due to the series of storms along coastal California.  The break after the formerly-scheduled Sunday launch now is looking like it's not going to happen.  Sunday's storm is looking like a morning event, as they're moving faster than before.  And Monday might get even more rainy than Sunday.

Don't be surprised if this one delays again.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1611574310212358145

CelesTrak has pre-launch SupGP data for the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch from Vandenberg SFB set for Jan 10 at 04:15:50 UTC. Deployment of 51 satellites should occur at 04:44:55.700 UTC. Data is available at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

[scr00chy]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1611574310212358145

CelesTrak has pre-launch SupGP data for the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch from Vandenberg SFB set for Jan 10 at 04:15:50 UTC. Deployment of 51 satellites should occur at 04:44:55.700 UTC. Data is available at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

51 satellites, that's interesting. When this was slated to launch in November, they were going to launch 52 satellites.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1611750317187600384?s

Of Course I Still Love You droneship and support ship GO Quest departed Long Beach earlier to support Starlink 2-4.

They recently diverted and are shielding near San Clemente Island - sea conditions don't look ideal.

[Ken the Bin]

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

SpaceX is targeting Monday, January 9 for a Falcon 9 launch of 51 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 8:15 p.m. PT (04:15 UTC on January 10), and a backup opportunity is available on Tuesday, January 10 at 8:02 p.m. PT (04:02 UTC on January 10).

Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff.

Webcast (video id bNAebzSvWt4)

[Alexphysics]

Smh SpaceX switching boosters again

Edit: I had understood B1075 wasn't until the next Starlink after this one out of Vandy but I guess SpaceX decided to swap boosters... sigh!

[zubenelgenubi]

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

[No mention of previous flights for first stage]

Smh SpaceX switching boosters again

Edit: I had understood B1075 wasn't until the next Starlink after this one out of Vandy but I guess SpaceX decided to swap boosters... sigh!

NextSpaceFlight, updated January 7:
Now using B1075.1

[soltasto]

Updated (since last year's attempt) press kit capture with OCR

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 2-4 now launching before OneWeb Flight 16, by 35 minutes.

OneWeb Flight 16 launch delayed to backup date/time:

To complete pre-launch processing, now targeting Monday, January 9 at 11:50 p.m. ET for launch of the @OneWeb Launch 16 mission from SLC-40. Vehicle and spacecraft are healthy, and weather is >90% favorable for liftoff. [Jan 8]

= January 10 04:50 UTC

We will see if this Starlink's launch date/time sticks.

[ZachS09]

Starlink 2-4 now launching before OneWeb Flight 16, by 35 minutes.

OneWeb Flight 16 launch delayed to backup date/time:

To complete pre-launch processing, now targeting Monday, January 9 at 11:50 p.m. ET for launch of the @OneWeb Launch 16 mission from SLC-40. Vehicle and spacecraft are healthy, and weather is >90% favorable for liftoff. [Jan 8]

= January 10 04:50 UTC

We will see if this Starlink's launch date/time sticks.

I don’t think it will.

[alugobi]

Starlink 2-4 now launching before OneWeb Flight 16, by 35 minutes.

OneWeb Flight 16 launch delayed to backup date/time:

To complete pre-launch processing, now targeting Monday, January 9 at 11:50 p.m. ET for launch of the @OneWeb Launch 16 mission from SLC-40. Vehicle and spacecraft are healthy, and weather is >90% favorable for liftoff. [Jan 8]

= January 10 04:50 UTC

We will see if this Starlink's launch date/time sticks.

I don’t think it will.

Rain forcast and sea state/wave height for launch time.  Warmer colors means heavier rain.  X marks the drone ship; the color there  indicates 6 meter waves.

[Alexphysics]

Rocket is out and vertical https://twitter.com/jaredhead/status/1612281982574276610

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1612537432871927808

Targeting 8:15 p.m. PT tonight for Falcon 9’s launch of 51 Starlink satellites from SLC-4E in California; teams are keeping an eye on weather conditions, which are 30% favorable for liftoff →

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1612575625633583109

Keeping up with all the rockets today? SpaceX is watching the weather at Vandenberg, hoping to launch the Starlink Group 2-4 mission at 8:15 PM PST (04:15 UTC), the first of two Falcon 9 missions tonight.

Article by William Graham (@w_d_graham):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/01/spacex-starlink-2-4/

[jackvancouver]

https://twitter.com/DJSnM/status/1612608408150212610

[Steven Pietrobon]

The YouTube countdown clock just reset to a T-0 at 05:30 UTC.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Clock now reset to 05:35 UTC.

"Now targeting 9:35 p.m. PT for tonight's launch of Starlink; teams are continuing to monitor weather"

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1612650174127706112

[lucas071200]

Standing down from tonight's Falcon 9’s launch of Starlink due to unfavorable weather conditions; a backup opportunity is available on Tuesday, January 10 at 8:02 p.m. PT


https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1612662829504684033?t=CQnIUVRnSHfj1nhvkxS9yA&s=19

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1612667512646422528

.@SpaceX has notified us that the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch has been moved to 2023-01-11 at 04:02:00 UTC with deployment now set for 04:31:05.700 UTC. CelesTrak pre-launch SupGP has been updated to reflect this change: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

[Targeteer]

Vandenberg Space Force Base 37m  · Facebook
UPDATE (as of Jan. 10 6:30 a.m.)
- DELAYED REPORTING -
Delayed Reporting for Non Essential Personnel
Vandenberg Space Force Base.
The 30th Space Launch Delta Commander has issued a delayed reporting until 10:00 Local. This is for all non essential workers, due to the impact of the weather in the local area.
- DIRECTION TO AVOID -
Direction to Avoid
For Vandenberg Space Force Base.
Be advised, the 30 Space Launch Delta Commander has issued a direction to avoid for Santa Maria Gate due to a downed power line on Highway 1 and California.

[zubenelgenubi]

Launch weather forecast update?

[alugobi]

Windy says no rain and minimum surface winds.


https://www.windy.com/?34.729,-120.527,12,m:eC2acOh

[r8ix]

Weather.com is projecting minimal winds and no rain, but significant cloud cover. Can't tell about where OCSILY is, though...

[kdhilliard]

The SpaceX webcast https://youtube.com/watch?v=bNAebzSvWt4 now says it will go live in 26 hours at 11:00 PM EST January 11 (though the description still they are targeting January 10).

Sounds like another weather delay?

[jackvancouver]

Official Vandy site gave out a severe weather alert for the entire base. Parts of the base are without power.

https://www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/Portals/18/documents/VSFB_Weather_Warning_04.pdf

[catdlr]

Updated at SpaceX site:

The instantaneous launch window is at 8:02 p.m. PT (04:02 UTC on January 11).

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

[jackvancouver]

Stupid Pineapple Express moisture causing so much rain...

[r8ix]

The SpaceX webcast https://youtube.com/watch?v=bNAebzSvWt4 now says it will go live in 26 hours at 11:00 PM EST January 11 (though the description still they are targeting January 10).

Sounds like another weather delay?

it's showing 84 minutes for me...

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Official Vandy site gave out a severe weather alert for the entire base. Parts of the base are without power.

https://www.vandenberg.spaceforce.mil/Portals/18/documents/VSFB_Weather_Warning_04.pdf

All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.

[ZachS09]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1613013733294641152

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1613091488174575617

The next launch attempt for #Starlink Group 2-4 is now set for 2023-01-12 at 03:48:10 UTC with deployment at  04:17:15.680 UTC. Updated data is available at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

[LouScheffer]

Official Vandy site gave out a severe weather alert for the entire base. Parts of the base are without power.

All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.

I'd assume the diesels are only fired up during a launch campaign?  It would seem incredibly wasteful to run them all the time.

If they really need 24 hour/day coverage there are much better systems available.  For our internal data center, where we want continuous coverage without even glitches, we use a combination of flywheels and generators.   The flywheels are continuously spinning, but they are in a vacuum so the losses are low.  If the power fails, the flywheels support the load (glitch free) for about 20 seconds.  During those 20 seconds, the diesels start and sync to the flywheel power for another seamless handover.  This gives very solid power with relatively little emissions (dominated by the weekly testing of the diesels).

[DanClemmensen]

Official Vandy site gave out a severe weather alert for the entire base. Parts of the base are without power.

All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.

I'd assume the diesels are only fired up during a launch campaign?  It would seem incredibly wasteful to run them all the time.

If they really need 24 hour/day coverage there are much better systems available.  For our internal data center, where we want continuous coverage without even glitches, we use a combination of flywheels and generators.   The flywheels are continuously spinning, but they are in a vacuum so the losses are low.  If the power fails, the flywheels support the load (glitch free) for about 20 seconds.  During those 20 seconds, the diesels start and sync to the flywheel power for another seamless handover.  This gives very solid power with relatively little emissions (dominated by the weekly testing of the diesels).

That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.

[ZachS09]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1613215565971357702

[alugobi]

This launch is jinxed.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Official Vandy site gave out a severe weather alert for the entire base. Parts of the base are without power.

All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.

I'd assume the diesels are only fired up during a launch campaign?  It would seem incredibly wasteful to run them all the time.

If they really need 24 hour/day coverage there are much better systems available.  For our internal data center, where we want continuous coverage without even glitches, we use a combination of flywheels and generators.   The flywheels are continuously spinning, but they are in a vacuum so the losses are low.  If the power fails, the flywheels support the load (glitch free) for about 20 seconds.  During those 20 seconds, the diesels start and sync to the flywheel power for another seamless handover.  This gives very solid power with relatively little emissions (dominated by the weekly testing of the diesels).

That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.

Yes the generators run up for an op at it's start and stay up until it's end.

But always because of the windy and narrow roads. Road conditions before an op can cause launch op slips. Some of the "more time to conduct processing" may be related to a lack of some personnel unable to get to the appropriate multiple sites about north base and south base. On some rare occasions the valley between the north base and south base floods. The Lompoc Flower fields occupy the flood plain between the base sections from Lompoc out to the ocean.

After looking at the current radar/satellite images for the base area this morning. BAD WEATHER. I understand also why the current reschedule out to the 14th.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

This launch is jinxed.

Be careful about such labels.

I remember one December 1981 Atlas launch. It could seemingly never get all it's ducks in a row: weather, technical, GSE... Slips that finally was for about 7 days from its original schedule. It finally launched on Christmas Eve just before midnight. Unfortunately it was a failure. The initial failure investigation kickoff was at 1 am Christmas.

[jimvela]

This launch is jinxed.

Not even remotely enough issues to qualify as jinxed, in my opinion.

I supported one mission that sat at VAFB for a year before it finally launched.
Another one was the first ever spacecraft to be shipped back to Ball after arriving at a launch base.

Having a launch slip during such severe weather is a good thing- trying to launch when conditions are that bad is not a sensible thing to do.

[alugobi]

Jeez, lighten up. 

Besides, they tweeted that it wasn't weather this time. 

[ZachS09]

I think they needed more time to check the second stage data.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1613276188092542977

Now targeting Falcon 9's launch of Starlink on Sunday, January 15 at 8:18 a.m. PT from California for constellation optimization

[ZachS09]

That’s a weird reason for a launch delay.

[mn]

It's not 24 hrs, more like 13:12. it's a different launch time, means at the last minute they decided to target a different plane?

[ZachS09]

It's not 24 hrs, more like 13:12. it's a different launch time, means at the last minute they decided to target a different plane?

That’s right. There were also several Starlinks in 2021 that launched in the wee hours (3 AM to 4 AM Eastern) due to last minute changes to different orbital planes.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1613290006940090368

.@SpaceX has just notified us that the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch is now scheduled for 2023-01-15 at 16:18:40 UTC with deployment at 16:47:45.680 UTC. CelesTrak pre-launch SupGP data has been updated and is available at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

[LouScheffer]

All of VSFB have redundant pairs or triples of diesel  generators. Every site every radar, every telemetry receiver tracker etc. Such that downed lines will not take down critical power to infrastructure. All generators are powered up and floating hot on the grid so a even low power from the line trips out and generators take over without so much as a blink to the critical launch support infrastructure on both south base and north base.

I'd assume the diesels are only fired up during a launch campaign?  It would seem incredibly wasteful to run them all the time.

If they really need 24 hour/day coverage there are much better systems available.  For our internal data center, where we want continuous coverage without even glitches, we use a combination of flywheels and generators.   The flywheels are continuously spinning, but they are in a vacuum so the losses are low.  If the power fails, the flywheels support the load (glitch free) for about 20 seconds.  During those 20 seconds, the diesels start and sync to the flywheel power for another seamless handover.  This gives very solid power with relatively little emissions (dominated by the weekly testing of the diesels).

That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.

Megapacks are the wrong technology for this task.  They are way too expensive to cope with long outages (several days, such as happened in Florida recently) so you need the diesels anyway. Once you have the diesels, what you need is bridging power to hold over while the diesels start, and flywheels are much smaller/cheaper for that.

[ChrisC]

That's a rock-solid 1970's solution. A new installation would probably use Megapacks.

Megapacks are the wrong technology for this task.  They are way too expensive to cope with long outages (several days, such as happened in Florida recently) so you need the diesels anyway. Once you have the diesels, what you need is bridging power to hold over while the diesels start, and flywheels are much smaller/cheaper for that.

At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start, where a couple heavy-set electricians and mechanics (and 24/7 coverage) would come huffing down the hill from the campus machine shop and furiously work on the thing to get it running

We tested that system EVERY DAY.  At 3pm, one of those guys would stop by our facility on his daily tour and "pull the plug" on the whole building, literally kill the grid input (aka "shore power") and see if the UPS and gens automatically did their jobs.  If they didn't, OK, back to shore power and now let's figure out the generator problem while we don't actually need them ...

Thanks for the story time opportunity )  Ask me about Halon dumps someday ...

[Ken the Bin]

New cancel-and-replace NGA Hazardous Operations notice (should be Rocket Launching).

120423Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 16/23(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 1443Z TO 1827Z DAILY 15 THRU 19 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-40.00N 120-40.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-08.00N 120-05.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-25.00W, 32-40.00N 119-31.00W,
      33-18.00N 119-52.00W, 33-55.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-22.00N 120-34.00W, 34-33.00N 120-38.00W.
   B. 1443Z TO 1828Z DAILY 15 THRU 19 JAN
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 5/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 191928Z JAN 23.//

The timeframe being the same for all days doesn't reflect that the launch time moves 13-14 minutes earlier each day.

This information from the FAA correctly reflects it: https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

SPACE X STARLINK 2-4, VANDENBERG SFS
PRIMARY:        01/15/23        1553-1909Z
BACKUP:         01/16/23        1539-1855Z
                01/17/23        1526-1842Z
                01/18/23        1512-1828Z
                01/19/23        1458-1814Z

[LouScheffer]

At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start...

Our facility covers this by having 5 diesels in parallel, any 3 of which are sufficient to cover the load.  When power fails, all 5 are started regardless of the demand.  After the sync and cutover, the demand is measured and the diesels shut down one by one until the remaining units are working fairly hard, with the others held in reserve.  This is because running these diesels at low load is bad for their lifetime.

For the same reason, even routine testing is done under load.  Each day, one of the 5 diesels is fired up, synced to the grid, then asked to provide its capacity (a MW or so) for a few minutes.  So full load testing once per week per engine.

On top of this, for a few super-critical applications that cannot tolerate even minor disturbances, there is a UPS system that takes AC, converts it to DC to charge batteries, then re-synthesizes AC.  It's not needed for hold-over since the flywheels and generators can do that (though it may be asked to do so to reduce the load on the flywheels).  It's mainly there for power cleaning.

A lot of engineering goes into the seemingly simple task of backup power.  The facility guy in charge of this was very happy I stopped by and took an interest in his work.  But hopefully VFSB will soon recover, and we can resume talking about rockets instead of backup power strategies.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

At the facility that I worked at many years ago that had similar reliability requirements, we had huge room-sized UPS battery banks that were sized to support the building for 20-40 minutes.  Indeed it only took maybe 30-45 seconds for the diesels to come up and fully stabilize, and flywheels could cover that.  But we had to account for the OH-SH!T scenario where the associated genset didn't start...

Our facility covers this by having 5 diesels in parallel, any 3 of which are sufficient to cover the load.  When power fails, all 5 are started regardless of the demand.  After the sync and cutover, the demand is measured and the diesels shut down one by one until the remaining units are working fairly hard, with the others held in reserve.  This is because running these diesels at low load is bad for their lifetime.

For the same reason, even routine testing is done under load.  Each day, one of the 5 diesels is fired up, synced to the grid, then asked to provide its capacity (a MW or so) for a few minutes.  So full load testing once per week per engine.

On top of this, for a few super-critical applications that cannot tolerate even minor disturbances, there is a UPS system that takes AC, converts it to DC to charge batteries, then re-synthesizes AC.  It's not needed for hold-over since the flywheels and generators can do that (though it may be asked to do so to reduce the load on the flywheels).  It's mainly there for power cleaning.

A lot of engineering goes into the seemingly simple task of backup power.  The facility guy in charge of this was very happy I stopped by and took an interest in his work.  But hopefully VFSB will soon recover, and we can resume talking about rockets instead of backup power strategies.

Battery backups and generators have always been used in the space ops. But how the battery backups were implemented have changed from that of a battery set being specific to a hardware set that feed DC to the hardware at the voltages it needed. About late 1970's early 1980s this changed to the generic solid state UPS that delivered AC at regular line voltages so that less unique hardware all around could be used. Some earlier UPS designs used a DC motor connected to a AC generator for truly large UPS.

But we digress from the 2-4 mission.

[Sam Ho]

Here's an article that touches on everything in this digression: Vandenberg, spaceflight, data centers, and massive facility power equipment.  The motor-generators are because the Cybers took 400Hz AC power.  The Cybers were replaced by an emulator running on a PC, after the last maintenance techs retired.

The Last Cyber Mainframes, a 39-year era comes to an end

On April 29, 2021, the Western Range at Vandenberg shut down the last CDC-built mainframe computers, known as “Cyber” systems, still in service anywhere. The Air Force originally put these large computers into operation in 1982 to process data for various space and ballistic missile launch programs, such as Minuteman III, Peacekeeper, Delta II, and the Space Shuttle. Initially, the three water-cooled mainframes were installed in Building 488 on South Vandenberg AFB.

Two-ton motor-generators were needed to supply the Cybers with specially smoothed power to protect their sophisticated electronics. Two computers processed data for safety evaluations during flight, and the third handled data reduction before and after launches.

[ZachS09]

Why does all this battery and electric stuff have to do with Starlink 2-4?

They didn’t delay this launch because of what’s being discussed.

[oldAtlas_Eguy]

Why does all this battery and electric stuff have to do with Starlink 2-4?

They didn’t delay this launch because of what’s being discussed.

It got kicked off because the power grid outside and some inside VSFB got trashed by the storms. Making the normal grid power unreliable. All of this was about how the space launch has never really trusted grid power reliability. Both at VSFB and the cape.

Now that we have covered this topic so that if personnel can get to the locations safely. A launch can progress regardless of the  power grid.

[GewoonLukas_]

Due to unfavorable recovery weather conditions with 15+ foot waves in the Pacific Ocean, as well as high winds across Central and Southern California, we’re now targeting no earlier than Wednesday, January 18 for Falcon 9’s launch of Starlink from California

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1614010561414717440

Edit: But website says January 19th:

SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 19 for a Falcon 9 launch of 51 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 7:23 a.m. PT (15:23 UTC).

Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff.

[Ken the Bin]

New cancel-and-replace NGA Hazardous Operations notice (should be Rocket Launching).  Note that it starts on January 18.

132252Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 20/23(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 1333Z TO 1746Z DAILY 18 THRU 24 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-08.00N 120-05.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-40.00N 120-40.00W,
      34-33.00N 120-38.00W, 34-22.00N 120-34.00W,
      33-55.00N 120-17.00W, 33-18.00N 119-52.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-31.00W, 32-40.00N 119-25.00W.
   B. 1333Z TO 1747Z DAILY 18 THRU 24 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 16/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 241847Z JAN 23.

This NGA cancellation notice cancels a Space Debris notice associated with this launch.

132325Z JAN 23
HYDROPAC 165/23(22,83).
EASTERN SOUTH PACIFIC.
DNC 06, DNC 07.
CANCEL HYDROPAC 69/23 AND THIS MSG.

The FAA ATCSSC Current Operations Plan also shows January 18 as the Primary Day: https://www.fly.faa.gov/adv/adv_spt.jsp

SPACE X STARLINK 2-4, VANDENBERG SFS
PRIMARY:        01/18/23        1512-1747Z
BACKUP:         01/19/23        1458-1733Z
                01/20/23        1444-1719Z
                01/21/23        1430-1705Z
                01/22/23        1416-1651Z
                01/23/23        1402-1637Z
                01/24/23        1348-1623Z

[VLN]

There are 2 other NGA notices neighboring Starlink 2-4 in both space and time, and they are the reason I favor the Jan 19 opportunity.

The dark blue zone (NAVAREA XII 20/23) of course is the Starlink 2-4 zone that has been exactly the same since November. Well, this one has the same dots in reverse order.

The yellow zone (NAVAREA XII 21/23) is a notice for a single day, Jan 18 at 1230-2030 UTC= 4:30am-12:30pm PST. It looks like a missile path, but its east end is on the water. I saw several like this last fall, and concluded (with some advice) that they're from a military system under testing. The first Starlink 2-4 window from NGA is Jan 18 at 13:33-17:46 UTC, in the middle of the "missile" window and spatially mighty close. It's not impossible for them to coexist, but if they were mine, I'd change one of them.

The lavender square (NAVAREA XII 22/23) is a later unnamed hazard zone for 6 days, 10 hr/day: Jan 20-25, 1500-0100 UTC = 7am - 5pm PST. Because of its location, I speculate that this is related to the "missile" activity. It also overlaps the Starlink zone and its windows beginning Jan 20.

So, unless the customer for NAVAREA XII 21/23 and NAVAREA XII 22/23 notices decides to cancel them, it seems to me that the resolution of these conflicts and near-conflicts is for Starlink to launch NET Jan 19. After that, NAVAREA XII 22/23 may or may not disrupt the remaining windows in the Starlink reservation.

And by the way, I have a prediction of the precise launch times on Jan 18-19. Previous Starlink 2-4 launch opportunities as shown on Celestrak SupGP were separated by 23:46:10 (24 hr minus 13 min 50 sec). Using that separation and starting from Jan 15 at 16:18:40 UTC (h/t Celestrak), I calculate Jan 18 at 15:37:10 UTC or Jan 19 at 15:23:20... in case you believe the analogy.

[catdlr]

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
8:51 PM (6 minutes ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Thursday, January 19.

Note from me: The recent stream of Pacific Storms is generating large swells. Reports of large waves hitting offshore oil rigs are an indication of that.

UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.

[SpaceFinnOriginal]

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
8:51 PM (6 minutes ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Thursday, January 19.

Note from me: The recent stream of Pacific Storms is generating large swells. Reports of large waves hitting offshore oil rigs are an indication of that.

UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.

Spacex.com says that launch is targeted on January 19th.

[soltasto]

Updated "press kit" capture with OCR

[catdlr]

UPDATE:  The above notice was in error the following is the corrected version:

Launch Alert <[email protected]>
9:13 PM (2 hours ago)
to launch-alert

The frequently delayed Falcon 9 launch from Vandenberg SFB is now scheduled for the morning of Wednesday, January 18 at approximately 0732 PST.

Spacex.com says that the launch is targeted for January 19th.

Launching at VASF is difficult this time of the year with all the approaching storm fronts, High winds aloft, and choppy seas. Eventually, it will settle out after February (although climate change has made it stronger this year). Otherwise, it's an always-changing launch window. 

[alugobi]

The tug and recovery boat NRC Quest are currently lying low in Long Beach.  It's raining like a monsoon in SoCal today, going to continue into Monday.  SX are now calling for Thursday.  Probably wise to give this extra day, considering how it's been going lately, weatherwise. 

[gongora]

https://twitter.com/TSKelso/status/1614653348573216768

The #Starlink Group 2-4 launch has been rescheduled for 2023-01-19 at 15:23:10 UTC with deployment at 15:52:15.680 UTC. Pre-launch SupGP data can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4.

[VLN]

... I calculate {snip} Jan 19 at 15:23:20....

Durn. Got it wrong.

[Ken the Bin]

Finally a cancel-and-replace NGA Hazardous Operations notice for the postponement to January 19.  The canceled notice had a hazard warning period of 13:33 TO 17:46 UTC.  The new notice is 14:15 TO 19:29 UTC.  Extrapolating the launch times given previously on the SpaceX webpage, if the launch gets delayed to January 24, the actual launch time is ~14:13, and on January 25 ~13:59, which are before the start of the warning period.

172200Z JAN 23
NAVAREA XII 29/23(18,21).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS:
   A. 1415Z TO 1929Z DAILY 19 THRU 25 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      34-08.00N 120-05.00W, 34-40.00N 120-17.00W,
      34-27.00N 120-17.00W, 34-40.00N 120-40.00W,
      34-33.00N 120-38.00W, 34-22.00N 120-34.00W,
      33-55.00N 120-17.00W, 33-18.00N 119-52.00W,
      32-40.00N 119-31.00W, 32-40.00N 119-25.00W.
   B. 1415Z TO 1930Z DAILY 19 THRU 25 JAN
      IN AREA BOUND BY
      29-47.00N 117-39.00W, 30-11.00N 117-56.00W,
      30-11.00N 118-18.00W, 29-33.00N 118-17.00W,
      28-33.00N 117-32.00W, 28-33.00N 117-14.00W.
2. CANCEL NAVAREA XII 20/23.
3. CANCEL THIS MSG 252030Z JAN 23.

[soltasto]

Once again, updated "Press kit" capture with OCR

[Steven Pietrobon]

Once again, updated "Press kit" capture with OCR

The text of this one appears to be same as Starlink_Group_2-4_2.pdf.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1615429673344720898

Attempt #3 - Of Course I Still Love You droneship is outbound and heading for the Starlink 2-4 LZ.

Previous attempts in November and earlier this month were delayed and the droneship recalled to port.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1615726259153301504

Targeting tomorrow, January 19 at 7:23 a.m. PT for Falcon 9's launch of Starlink from California →

https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

SpaceX is targeting Thursday, January 19 for a Falcon 9 launch of 51 Starlink satellites to low-Earth orbit from Space Launch Complex 4 East (SLC-4E) at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California. The instantaneous launch window is at 7:23 a.m. PT (15:23 UTC), and a backup opportunity is available on Friday, January 20 at 7:09 a.m. PT (15:09 UTC).

Following stage separation, Falcon 9’s first stage will return to Earth and land on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship stationed in the Pacific Ocean.

A live webcast of this mission will begin about five minutes prior to liftoff.

[ZachS09]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1615936127634132993

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tgmetsfan98/status/1615946022001188867

Already SpaceX’s 5th launch of the year coming up in about 10 hours.

Mission preview by William Graham (@w_d_graham):

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/01/spacex-starlink-2-4/

[scr00chy]

Visual mission profile from rykllan

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1616086940889251840

Latest info from @SpaceX has the #Starlink Group 2-4 launch set for 2023-01-19 at 15:43:10 UTC with deployment of 51 satellites at 16:12:15.680 UTC. Updated pre-launch SupGP data can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/supplemental/table.php?FILE=starlink-g2-4

[ZachS09]

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceflightnow/status/1616090524296822787

T-minus 35 minutes. Filling of the Falcon 9 rocket with super-chilled, densified kerosene and liquid oxygen is underway at Vandenberg Space Force Base for launch of the Starlink 2-4 mission at 7:43:10am PST (10:43:10am EST; 1543:10 GMT).

Live coverage: spaceflightnow.com/2023/01/19/fal…

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceflightnow/status/1616094171714183169

T-minus 20 minutes. SpaceX confirms the Falcon 9's second stage kerosene fuel tank is now full. Kerosene and liquid oxygen continue flowing into the Falcon 9's first stage, and liquid oxygen will begin pumping into the second stage at T-minus 16 minutes. spaceflightnow.com/2023/01/19/fal…

[sdsds]

"Stage 2 LOX load has started."
From Mission Audio stream:

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Engine chill has started

[FutureSpaceTourist]

SpaceX webstream has started

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Weather and range are green

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Strongback retracting

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Recovery conditions look good

[FutureSpaceTourist]

F9 in start-up

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Liftoff! (finally )

[FutureSpaceTourist]

MaxQ

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1616099162084331522

LAUNCH! SpaceX Falcon 9 B1061-11 launches the Starlink Group 2-4 mission from Vandenberg's SLC-4E.

Overview:
https://nasaspaceflight.com/2023/01/spacex-starlink-2-4/ - by William Graham (
@w_d_graham
).

SpaceX Livestream:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=bNAebzSvWt4

[FutureSpaceTourist]

MECO, separation & S2 ignition

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Fairing separation

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1616099846775267328

Staging 1-2

[FutureSpaceTourist]

T+5

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Entry burn

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Landed!

[FutureSpaceTourist]

SECO & nominal orbit insertion

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Webcast has ended

[SPKirsch]

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1616101505307934723

Falcon 9’s first stage has landed on the Of Course I Still Love You droneship

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/SpaceOffshore/status/1616102147942191104

First look at Of Course I Still Love You droneship's new tapered wings (They match the design of ASOG now)

Previously the wings were squared off on the corners

...also successful landing of the booster

[sdsds]

Acquisition of signal, Easter Island

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Starlinks deployed!

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1616106348416237570

Deployment of 51 Starlink satellites confirmed

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Congratulations to SpaceX on yet another successful mission!

5 launches in 19 days would extrapolate to 96 launches this year. A very long way to go, but SpaceX have started the year at the rate they need to maintain all year to get near the 100 launch target.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

Finally some launch photos! This launch seems almost unique for SpaceX in the near total absence of launch photographs.

https://twitter.com/sldelta30/status/1616127106702004226

#TeamV

SpaceX Starlink had a successful launch!

Congratulations on the first launch of 2023 from #VSFB! Since 1958, there have been 2,023 launches on base. This launch also makes it the 100th launch from SLC-4E since 1964.

Did you see the launch?

#PartnersinSpace

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/shorealonefilms/status/1616116267068567552

Here’s @SpaceX #Falcon9 blasting off from @SLDelta30 on its #Starlink 2-4 mission this morning. Yes…thats all that was visible from #Pasadena lol 01-19-23

[FutureSpaceTourist]

A couple of SpaceX launch photos

[edkyle99]

I wonder if today's launch used the second stage that had the problem during the November 17, 2022 static fire held before the planned Starlink 2-4 launch using B1061.11. 

 - Ed Kyle

[Alexphysics]

I wonder if today's launch used the second stage that had the problem during the November 17, 2022 static fire held before the planned Starlink 2-4 launch using B1061.11. 

 - Ed Kyle

Who said the issue was on the second stage?

[OneSpeed]

Here is a comparison of the webcast telemetry from the Starlink 4-31 and 2-4 missions.

4-31 flew 53 satellites to an orbital inclination of 53.2°, whilst 2-4 flew 51 satellites to 70°.

Some first stage differences are:
1. The 2-4 throttle bucket was about 5 seconds earlier, from 240 to 320m/s, barely supersonic at that altitude. The 4-31 bucket was from the usual 300 to 355m/s.
2. The 2-4 MECO was 2s earlier, re-entry burn was 4s earlier, and the landing burn was 10s earlier. This all points to a slightly less energetic booster trajectory, as you might expect with fewer satellites to a higher inclination.

For the second stage, the differences are:
1. Because of the SpaceX telemetry inertial frame of reference, orbital velocity of 2-4 at 70° inclination is faster at 7661m/s than for 4-31 at 53.2° and 7,521m/s. In an orbital frame of reference, the numbers would be the same for both, at about 7,820m/s.
2. The acceleration for 2-4 is a few percent greater towards SECO due to the lighter payload.

[Steven Pietrobon]

Here's a pdf of the archived press kit.

https://web.archive.org/web/20230119141646/https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=starlink-2-4-pre-launch

[Skyrocket]

I wonder if today's launch used the second stage that had the problem during the November 17, 2022 static fire held before the planned Starlink 2-4 launch using B1061.11. 

 - Ed Kyle

This launch did not use B1061.11. This one used a new stage, B1075, as mentioned earlier in this thread.
SpaceX confirms the new stage: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl2-4-pl

[ZachS09]

I wonder if today's launch used the second stage that had the problem during the November 17, 2022 static fire held before the planned Starlink 2-4 launch using B1061.11. 

 - Ed Kyle

This launch did not use B1061.11. This one used a new stage, B1075, as mentioned earlier in this thread.
SpaceX confirms the new stage: https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl2-4-pl

Ed meant the second stage only.

[kdhilliard]

Did anyone else notice that at stage separation part of the film (aluminized Kapton?) covering the MVac came loose?  From the second camera view you can even see the three strips of tape which had held it down!

Video link to stage separation: https://youtube.com/watch?v=bNAebzSvWt4&t=11m26s

Not an event of any consequence; just one I've never noticed before.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1616973989972434944

Of Course I Still Love You droneship should arrive at the Port of Long Beach with B1075 (Starlink 2-4) on Sunday afternoon.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/spaceoffshore/status/1617316133366906880

OCISLY droneship has just arrived at Long Beach

[GewoonLukas_]

Here’s @spacex’s #Falcon9 b1075.01 booster aboard a newly modified drone ship #OCISLY The new deck extensions seen here. 01-22-23

https://twitter.com/ShorealoneFilms/status/1617435527225167872