Orbital refueling is a frontier technology and has yet to be demonstrated at scale for cryogenics.That makes it a meaningful goal to pursue for a frontier exploration program, but national security payloads need rocket technologies that actually exist.I'm going to go out on a limb and say Neutron and orbital refueling won't be a thing this decade.
Quote from: sstli2 on 04/06/2025 05:19 pmOrbital refueling is a frontier technology and has yet to be demonstrated at scale for cryogenics.That makes it a meaningful goal to pursue for a frontier exploration program, but national security payloads need rocket technologies that actually exist.I'm going to go out on a limb and say Neutron and orbital refueling won't be a thing this decade.As I understand it, NSSL qualification does not require the rockets to actually exist. They require the vendor to have a credible and convincing plan that the rockets will exist by the time they are needed. The obvious recent example of this was Vulcan Centaur for NSSL Phase 2.
We assigned 9 FY25 NSSL launch service missions under our Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts—7 to SpaceX & 2 to ULA. Blue Origin has its 1st opportunity for a mission in ‘26. We’re committed to putting new space capabilities on orbit to support outpacing competitors:
Space Systems Command Releases National Security Space Launch Phase 3 Lane 2 FY25 Mission Assignments Published April 7, 2025By EL SEGUNDO, Calif.EL SEGUNDO, Calif. – Space Systems Command (SSC) assigned nine FY25 National Security Space Launch (NSSL) launch service missions under the Phase 3 Lane 2 contracts on 04 April 2025. Seven missions were assigned to SpaceX for a total price of $845.8M to launch NROL-96, NROL-97, NROL-157, USSF-186, USSF-234, USSF-174 and USSF-15/GPS IIIF. Two missions were assigned to ULA for a total price of $427.6M to launch USSF-50/NGG-2 and USSF-49/GPS IIIF-2. Per the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 2 contract, the third provider, Blue Origin, has its first opportunity for a mission in FY26.“These missions will provide our nation with its most critical space-based effects needed to ensure national security,” said Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, Program Executive Officer for Assured Access to Space. “With these missions, our acquisition team and the launch service providers are putting new space capabilities on orbit to outpace our competitors.”NROL-96, NROL-97, and NROL-157 are missions being conducted with our NRO partners; NROL-96 and NROL-157 will launch from the Western Range into Lower Energy orbits and NROL-97 will launch from the Eastern Range into Higher Energy orbit.USSF-49 and USSF-15 are the second and third of the GPS IIIF (GPS III Follow-on) missions. GPS IIIF introduces several improvements and novel capabilities compared to previous GPS satellite blocks. Both will launch from the Eastern Range.USSF-50, launching from the Eastern Range, is the second Next-Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared GEO (NGG) satellite. This satellite will deliver survivable, resilient missile warning, tracking, and defense in the highly contested and congested space domain.USSF-186, USSF-234, and USSF-174 are classified missions launching from the Eastern Range.Assured Access to Space executes the U.S. Space Force’s Core Competency of Space Mobility and Logistics. It secures reliable and responsive launch services to deploy the space-based capabilities needed by our Nation's warfighters, intelligence professionals, decision makers, allies, and partners. Additionally, it operates and sustains resilient and ready launch and test infrastructure to project on-orbit warfighting capability through all phases of conflict and to expand U.S. economic, technological, and scientific leadership. Further, Assured Access to Space delivers servicing, mobility, and logistics capabilities that operate in, from, and to the space domain.SSC is the U.S. Space Force’s field command responsible for acquiring and delivering resilient warfighting capabilities to protect our nation’s strategic advantage in and from space. SSC manages a $15.6 billion annual space acquisition budget for the DoD and works in partnership with joint forces, industry, government agencies, and academic and allied organizations to accelerate innovation and outpace emerging threats. Our actions today are making the world a better space for tomorrow.
CHANTILLY, Va. — The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), in partnership with U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command’s Assured Access to Space (SSC AATS), Space Launch Delta 30, and SpaceX, successfully launched the NROL-145 mission aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space Launch Complex-4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base in California on April 20, 2025, at 8:29 a.m. EDT.Today’s mission is the tenth overall launch of the NRO’s proliferated architecture and fourth proliferated launch of 2025. NROL-145 is also the first mission in partnership with SSC AATS under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 Launch Service NRO Task Order awarded in October 2024. NSSL, a government launch acquisition partnership program between SSC and the NRO aimed at ensuring continued assured access to space for national security missions, is overseen and operated by SSC headquartered at Los Angeles Air Force Base in California.
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. – The U.S. Space Force (USSF) Space Systems Command’s (SSC) Assured Access to Space (AATS) organization and their mission partners successfully supported the launch of the National Reconnaissance Office Launch (NROL)-145 mission on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket today at 5:29 a.m. from Space Launch Complex (SLC)-4 East at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California.The NROL-145 launch service was procured by SSC’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program as one of the first two launch task orders on the Phase 3 Lane 1 Indefinite Delivery, Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract. This NSSL Task Order (NTO)-2 was awarded to SpaceX on October 18, 2024.“This was our first Phase 3 launch, coming only months after establishing this new contract. The Lane 1 path is ideal for shorter, more responsive mission timelines in addition to being the ideal entry avenue for prospective NSSL providers,” said USSF Col. Jim Horne, Launch Execution Senior Materiel Leader. AATS manages the NSSL program, which has 44 launches remaining under the Phase 2 contracts along with those recently acquired under this Phase 3 contract. The NSSL program continues a longstanding partnership with the NRO, going back decades, using launch vehicles such as the Titan, Atlas and Delta.
The program plans to acquire services for approximately 85 launches during Phase 3—a significant increase from the prior phase. This is due in part to DOD’s plans for constellations of large numbers of satellites in low-Earth orbit. To address the increase, the program plans to invest $80 million to create additional infrastructure for payload processing—the critical stage in which satellites are encapsulated in the protective nosecone before transport to the launch pad.
https://spacenews.com/spacex-scores-81-6-million-space-force-contract-to-launch-weather-satellite/SpaceX won another task order for Lane 1 for 81.6M. This is in addition to the previous task orders it won of $733M for 9 missions (also $81M).Apparently that is the price to beat. I don't know if ULA or Blue Origin even tried to bid, but they probably aren't beating that price anyhow.Neutron does stand a good chance at beating that price, when it becomes operational.
While I agree that Neutron's base price might beat the amount SpaceX will be paid for that launch two questions remain.1) Could Neutron beat that price when including the same extras typically demanded by the US Government, but are not included in all commercial customers?2) How low will SpaceX be willing to go to be awarded missions?
