Author Topic: Predictions 2023  (Read 14148 times)

Offline Vahe231991

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Predictions 2023
« on: 07/05/2022 04:17 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.

Predictions for spaceflight 2023:
- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch
- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023
- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft
- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)
- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba
- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 foot tall mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt
- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket
- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches
- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite
- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam
« Last Edit: 12/04/2022 03:40 am by Vahe231991 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #1 on: 07/05/2022 05:02 pm »
Moving Artemis 2 forward into 2023 is not possible. There is some hardware reuse  - systems from the Orion from A1 that need to be pulled out, inspected, and reinstalled in the Orion for A2 - that puts in a 20-21 month "iron bar" between the flights of Artemis 1 and 2.

North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

Reviving Buran is not possible. The unfinished Burans were abandoned for decades and are not in any fit state to be completed.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #2 on: 07/05/2022 07:17 pm »
North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).

The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. 

Link:
https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html

Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #3 on: 07/05/2022 07:32 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.
...



YOu are correct ... too early

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #4 on: 07/05/2022 07:38 pm »
North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).

The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. 

Link:
https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html

Both these scenarios heavily involve secrecy and conspiracy where it's not needed, so I think it's safe to say we can dismiss them. Neither of these things is something that could easily be developed in secret. Especially a crew capsule, which would require a lot of highly visible testing. And, if NK was doing it as propaganda to show that their space program is peaceful, they wouldn't be keeping it secret anyway.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline daedalus1

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #5 on: 07/05/2022 07:55 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.

Predictions for spaceflight 2023:
- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch
- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023 assuming that the Artemis 1 mission unexpectedly will accomplish some objectives otherwise earmarked for Artemis 2
- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft
- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)
- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba
- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt
- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket
- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches
- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite
- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam

LOL.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #6 on: 08/17/2022 03:57 am »
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:
- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest
- There will be four or five Angara rocket launches
- China carries out two launches of the CSSHQ spaceplane
- RS1 makes its maiden launch
- North Korea conducts the first launch of a missile warning satellite designed to detect Minuteman and Sentinel launches
- VSS Imagine carries out its first flight
- Oryol spacecraft makes its first flight
- Proton rocket is retired from service, assuming that Elektro-L No.5 launch takes place in Q3 2023

Offline hektor

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #7 on: 08/17/2022 08:40 pm »
So my favourite prediction again.

During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.

All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".

 ;D

 
« Last Edit: 08/17/2022 08:44 pm by hektor »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #8 on: 08/17/2022 11:50 pm »
So my favourite prediction again.

During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.

All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".

 ;D
This kind of prediction is very far-fetched, and not going to happen at all next year.

I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:
- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions
- Iran and Iraq agree to jointly develop a variant of the Simorgh rocket to be used to launch the completed but unlaunched Al-Ta’ir 1 and Al-Ta’ir 2 satellites (which were intended to launched atop the Al-Abid SLV but not put in storage because the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm caused the Al-Abid program to be terminated)
- Five launches of the LauncherOne are conducted from the UK
- Talon-A cleared for operational use after five captive-carry flights and ten free test flights from the Stratolaunch Model 351 Roc

Offline Jim

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #9 on: 08/24/2022 03:30 pm »

I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:
- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions
-

Blue Origin is not conducting any interplanetary and interstellar missions with its own money.

Offline Jim

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #10 on: 08/24/2022 03:32 pm »
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:
- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest


No, moving missions does not free up money for other launches.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #11 on: 09/05/2022 10:28 pm »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least once

Starship doesn’t fly

At least one space tourist goes to the international space station

Rocket lab flies at least once

NASA Perseverance rover finds more evidence of past water

NASA Curiosity rover finds more organic molecules

CO2 found in the atmosphere of another exoplanet

Exoplanet of Earth mass and distance from star for liquid water to exist found within 40 light years

More water found on moon

Asteroid passes close to Earth but doesn’t hit Earth
« Last Edit: 09/07/2022 09:48 pm by scienceguy »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline jmt27

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #12 on: 09/05/2022 11:31 pm »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least twice


Huhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...

Offline Hog

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #13 on: 09/06/2022 12:45 am »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least twice


Huhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...
"Yikes!
"In 2023 Congress funds operations at Michoud Assembly to allow Boeing to support 2 launches/year."  Maybe that's what he meant?
Paul

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #14 on: 09/06/2022 03:41 am »
Too early.  Plenty of things happening the rest of this year will shape next year.

Offline soyuzu

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #15 on: 09/06/2022 04:24 am »
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well! 8)

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #16 on: 09/06/2022 06:43 am »
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well! 8)
That's what this thread is for all the way to 2050:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56245.msg2403711#new

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #17 on: 09/08/2022 02:16 am »
..
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 01:47 am by Mr. Scott »

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #18 on: 09/10/2022 01:26 am »
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:

Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).

Falcon Heavy launches 4 times

Falcon 9 launches ~70 times.

ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).

A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).

Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.

SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.

Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.

Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations.

30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.

US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).


Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #19 on: 09/10/2022 06:56 pm »
Glad to see the prediction thread up early, especially since I forgot to make some for the past several years. But there's no way I'm making any predictions until December. There's at least one (and perhaps more) SHLV launch, ABLs first launch, Firefly's second launch, and elections in like 30 different countries between now and then. Plus the war of course. We could be living in a different world come Christmas time.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

 

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