Author Topic: Predictions 2023  (Read 14140 times)

Offline Finn Mac Doreahn

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #20 on: 09/11/2022 10:45 pm »
General space (will do specifics next month or so)

FAM season 4 is awesome and season 5 gets green lit.

David Sanders announces he is rebooting Man Conquers Space.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #21 on: 11/06/2022 06:49 am »
2023 predictions:
Revised 29 December 2022.

SpaceX related predictions:
Quote
1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.
1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.
1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).
1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).

2) Falcon 9 family.
2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.
2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.
2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.
2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.

3) Starship
3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A
3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.
3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.
3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starling Gen2 deployment.

4) Starlink
4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.
4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.

Orbital rockets (besides Starship) in development as of December 2022 that originally were predicted to have a first launch date of 2020 or earlier:
Quote
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.
5.1) Not all rockets that make their debut in 2023 will have a perfect launch record that year. Something possibly disputed by the launch provider that developed the orbital launch vehicle.

6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.

7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.

Startup rocket companies:
Quote
8) At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.

9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.

General:
Quote
10) Rocketlab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.
10.1) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.

11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.

12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.
12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal.


13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.

14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches.

15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.

16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.

17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.

18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true.

« Last Edit: 12/29/2022 07:23 am by AmigaClone »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #22 on: 11/16/2022 04:45 pm »
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:

Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).

Falcon Heavy launches 4 times

Falcon 9 launches ~70 times.

ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).

A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).

Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.

SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.

Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.

Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations.

30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.

US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).
The Artemis 1 mission successfully launched today, ending an arduous months-long cycle of wet dress rehearsals and pre-launch fueling tests for the SLS rocket.

I predict that the Vulcan rocket will launch in January 2023, and that the Dream Chaser will launch next June if the first launch of the Vulcan rocket is successful and more BE-4 engines are manufactured and delivered to ULA on time.

Offline Hog

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #23 on: 11/16/2022 04:54 pm »
1) Artemis-1 will NOT launch in 2023.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #24 on: 11/20/2022 08:44 pm »
Since the Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17 are the biggest North Korean ballistic missiles ever built, it is possible that the DPRK next year could carry out the first launch of a human-rated SLV (albeit an unmanned launch lofting a mock-up of a manned capsule similar to the Shenzhou and Soyuz) whereby the Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 airframe is used for the first stage of the SLV and the second stage is based on the Hwasong-6.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #25 on: 12/04/2022 12:41 am »
It is December.  Time to get your predictions for 2023 in.

Offline chopsticks

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #26 on: 12/04/2022 02:34 am »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #27 on: 12/04/2022 07:47 pm »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #28 on: 12/04/2022 08:52 pm »
Artemis:
- Blue loses App P and is not happy about it
- None of the CLPS landers work
- Zero new official renders come out about SpaceX HLS

SpaceX:
- Work continues on the orbital launch mount
- One Orbital attempt in the second half of the year
- The orbital attempt is unsuccessful
- The Worm Booster is lost and the internet is extremely sad

ULA:
- Vulcan flies in Q2 and works perfectly
- Tory posts videos of SMART component testing

Blue:
- Something that looks like New Glenn is put on the pad for some amount of testing
- No new info on Clipper
- Work on their lander continues

Other:
- The Long March 9 design changes again
- Rocket Lab has no failures
- Firefly flies twice
- A smallsat company goes bankrupt
- ABL flies three times
I tried it at home

Offline chopsticks

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #29 on: 12/04/2022 11:28 pm »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.

Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
« Last Edit: 12/04/2022 11:36 pm by chopsticks »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #30 on: 12/05/2022 03:59 am »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.

Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
North Korea has launched two spacecraft into orbit, and it's not implausible that the DPRK is undertaking development of a manned spacecraft combining the solar panels of the Shenzhou spacecraft with the design of the Dragon 2 spacecraft, with an eye on launching an unmanned mockup of the notional manned capsule first. The Gaganyaan spacecraft is under development by India, and my take on the possibility of North Korea launching an unmanned prototype of a manned spacecraft next year is derived from mention in the Korean Central News Agency of plans for a reconnaissance satellite.

I'm also making additional predictions for 2023:
- Two launches of the Angara rocket
- Roscosmos decides to revive the Angara 1.1 program as a nominal long-term replacement for the Soyuz 2.1v
- Long March 9 design is finalized

Offline sdsds

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #31 on: 12/05/2022 06:24 am »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:
[EDIT: Wed 21 Dec 2022 10:12:25 PM UTC]

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
[Note: VV22 and comments by others below.]
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
« Last Edit: 12/21/2022 09:14 pm by sdsds »
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Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #32 on: 12/05/2022 11:25 am »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I really doubt that Ariane 6 will fly at all in 2023.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #33 on: 12/05/2022 09:34 pm »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I agree with you that one or two Angara launches could take place in 2023, given that the Angara 1.2 recently made its first orbital launches (the Angara A5 was the first Angara variant to conduct an orbital flight because the first Angara 1.2 launch was suborbital) and the Angara 1.2 is taking over launch roles once occupied by the Zenit, Dnepr, and Tsyklon.

I strongly doubt that NASA would delay Artemis 2 by several more months because back in March 2015 a tentative launch time frame for Artemis 2 (originally called EM-2 before 2019) could take place in either 2021 or 2026, and NASA reviews published in 2017-2019 had estimated that Artemis 2 might be launched sometime in the 2022-2023 timeframe, in which case the 2024 launch window for this mission floated last year could work out.

Boeing's first manned Starliner mission taking place in 2023 is a foregone conclusion, but with the caveat that the window of opportunity for Starliner-1 to be launched next year has been quashed by a busy schedule of Dragon 2 manned and cargo flights scheduled for 2023. Assuming that the first Vulcan launch meets expectations and the next batches of flight-ready BE-4 engines are test run and delivered to ULA on time, there would be good reason to believe that the target time frame for the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser with the Vulcan will remain set in stone.
« Last Edit: 12/05/2022 09:46 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline CameronD

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #34 on: 12/05/2022 10:05 pm »
My Spaceflight Prediction for 2023:

A launch from somewhere in Australia that actually makes it to orbit.  8)

With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline novak

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #35 on: 12/29/2022 05:49 am »
newspace/smallsat centered predictions this year.

-spaceX continues to crush it despite elon's apparently erratic influence
-not with starship though, neither stage is recovered after a flight close to an orbital attempt
-relativity space fails to make orbit
-ABL fails to make orbit more than once
-reggie returns to earth
-vulcan launches successfully
-rocketlab has some launches but less than they claim, reuse remains elusive
-firefly has some launches but less than they claim by a lot
-VG doesn't do anything interesting
-blue doesn't do anything interesting
-VO technically does something but either very badly or very slowly so no one even notices
-astra manages to do something but it's explosive
--
novak

Offline hkultala

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #36 on: 12/29/2022 06:28 am »
SpaceX:

* Starship launch pad in Cape Canaveral finished
* Phobos or Deimos launch platform finished (not both)
* Starship finally launches in the spring, and 10-20 other launches follow. All launches contain Starlink satellites, no external customers launches yet.
* One landing failure on Starship. Big headlines and clueless people commenting how SpaceX is wasting tens of millions of dollars money by exploding spacecraft.
* SpaceX signs more launch contracts for Starship than for Falcon family
* >60 Falcon 9 launches
* 5 FH launches
ULA:
* Vulcan launches multiple times
* No progress on "SMART reuse"

Blue Origin
* >10 suborbital tourist hops of New Shepard.
* New Glenn reaches launch pad, but not launched yet

Europe:
* Ariane 6 sitting in the launch pad at the end of the year but not yet launched

Rocket Lab:
* ~10 successful launches of Electron
* about half of boosters successfuly recovered
* Neutron not yet ready, but progressing steadily and Peter posts instagram pictures of some new parts of Neutron

Russia:

* Angara (1.2) launches once
* Soyuz and Proton laucnh multiple times
* Some cosmonauts get killed in an accident. Either Soyuz MS-22 fails on departure from ISS/re-entry, or there is a launch failure and also the LES fails due to components that should be in the LES being stolen.

China:

* China launches more flights to orbit than SpaceX, but average payload still small

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #37 on: 12/29/2022 11:31 am »
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.
I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.

Online catdlr

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #38 on: 12/29/2022 12:47 pm »
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.
I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.

Aw hell, you beat me to it. ;-)
Tony De La Rosa

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2023
« Reply #39 on: 12/29/2022 04:36 pm »
Starship doesn’t reach orbit

Vulcan launches successfully at least once as does H3

Ariane 6 is delayed further. Vega doesn’t launch in 2023.

Electron continues to launch successfully though reusability remains elusive. Neutron makes steady progress.

Possible indicators of life are detected on at least one of the planets in the TRAPPIST system
« Last Edit: 12/29/2022 04:41 pm by Star One »

 

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