1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).2) Falcon 9 family.2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.3) Starship3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A 3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starling Gen2 deployment.4) Starlink4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.5.1) Not all rockets that make their debut in 2023 will have a perfect launch record that year. Something possibly disputed by the launch provider that developed the orbital launch vehicle.6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.
8) At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.
10) Rocketlab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.10.1) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal.13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches.15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true.
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).Falcon Heavy launches 4 timesFalcon 9 launches ~70 times.ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations. 30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.
Quote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 02:34 amSheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
Quote from: jstrotha0975 on 12/04/2022 07:47 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 02:34 amSheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:SpaceX: - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times. - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy. - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.SLS/Orion: - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.Crew to ISS: - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100. - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.Cargo to ISS: - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.Crew to CSS: - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.Robotic Lunar: - Highly mixed success + a few missions fail spectacularly + at least one mission succeeds with notable results + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurityLaunch Systems: - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful- Japan's H3 flies at least once- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations- Angara-A5 flies as least once- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.