North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again. ...
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 07/05/2022 05:02 pmNorth Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all. In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. Link:https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again. Predictions for spaceflight 2023:- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023 assuming that the Artemis 1 mission unexpectedly will accomplish some objectives otherwise earmarked for Artemis 2- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam
So my favourite prediction again.During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".
I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions-
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest
Predictions for spaceflight 2023SLS flies at least twice
Quote from: scienceguy on 09/05/2022 10:28 pmPredictions for spaceflight 2023SLS flies at least twiceHuhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well!
1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).2) Falcon 9 family.2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.3) Starship3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A 3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starling Gen2 deployment.4) Starlink4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.5.1) Not all rockets that make their debut in 2023 will have a perfect launch record that year. Something possibly disputed by the launch provider that developed the orbital launch vehicle.6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.
8) At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.
10) Rocketlab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.10.1) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal.13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches.15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true.
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).Falcon Heavy launches 4 timesFalcon 9 launches ~70 times.ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations. 30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.
Quote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 02:34 amSheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
Quote from: jstrotha0975 on 12/04/2022 07:47 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 02:34 amSheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:SpaceX: - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times. - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy. - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.SLS/Orion: - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.Crew to ISS: - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100. - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.Cargo to ISS: - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.Crew to CSS: - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.Robotic Lunar: - Highly mixed success + a few missions fail spectacularly + at least one mission succeeds with notable results + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurityLaunch Systems: - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful- Japan's H3 flies at least once- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations- Angara-A5 flies as least once- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
Quote from: Blackhavvk on 01/01/2023 03:54 pm.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?PS: Belated welcome to the forum.
Quote from: AS_501 on 01/01/2023 04:25 pmQuote from: Blackhavvk on 01/01/2023 03:54 pm.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?PS: Belated welcome to the forum.A few reasons.1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.PS Thx
Quote from: Blackhavvk on 01/01/2023 04:55 pmQuote from: AS_501 on 01/01/2023 04:25 pmQuote from: Blackhavvk on 01/01/2023 03:54 pm.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?PS: Belated welcome to the forum.A few reasons.1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.PS ThxIn reference to your point, Israel's Beresheet was a privately-funded lander, but India's Chandrayaan-2 was state-owned.Back to the topic: I'd like to add 'Beresheet-1' and 'Chandrayaan-3' landings to 2023, but I don't know if either is planned for this year.
Ian: You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash. Do you guys know something I don't know?
Quote from: AS_501 on 01/02/2023 12:18 amIan: You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash. Do you guys know something I don't know? No, they don't, and neither do I. But I also predict that Peregrine will crash. But that is just because I'm a hardcore cynic.
US There will be almost 100 launches. Some accidents for small private rockets. Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash. Starship will carry out a mission with a controversial outcome, which some will consider a success and some a failure. About 65 Falcons will be launched, all successful. CN No significant events. About 70 launches. Several failures with light carriers.RU Over 30 launches. MS-23 will fly empty, cosmonauts and astronaut will remain until MS-24. The MS-22 will return empty with no problem. Luna 25 will land successfully. There will be no launch of Angrara from Vostochny, it will be postponed to 2024. There will be at least 2 launches of A5 from Plesetsk. Soyuz 5 will not be launched and will be scheduled for a new launch site in Russia.EU Only 3 starts. The Ariane 6 will only have one test flight, the Vega won't be cleared until 2024.IN 7 launches. Chandrayan will land successfully, more delays on the manned program. SSLV successful.JP 3 launches. H-3 successful.IR, SK and NK All at least one successful launch. All at least one successful launch.
Asteroid passes close to Earth but doesn’t hit Earth