Author Topic: Predictions 2023  (Read 14149 times)

Offline Vahe231991

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Predictions 2023
« on: 07/05/2022 04:17 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.

Predictions for spaceflight 2023:
- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch
- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023
- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft
- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)
- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba
- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 foot tall mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt
- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket
- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches
- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite
- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam
« Last Edit: 12/04/2022 03:40 am by Vahe231991 »

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #1 on: 07/05/2022 05:02 pm »
Moving Artemis 2 forward into 2023 is not possible. There is some hardware reuse  - systems from the Orion from A1 that need to be pulled out, inspected, and reinstalled in the Orion for A2 - that puts in a 20-21 month "iron bar" between the flights of Artemis 1 and 2.

North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

Reviving Buran is not possible. The unfinished Burans were abandoned for decades and are not in any fit state to be completed.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #2 on: 07/05/2022 07:17 pm »
North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).

The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. 

Link:
https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html

Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #3 on: 07/05/2022 07:32 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.
...



YOu are correct ... too early

Offline whitelancer64

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #4 on: 07/05/2022 07:38 pm »
North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.

I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.

In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).

The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. 

Link:
https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html

Both these scenarios heavily involve secrecy and conspiracy where it's not needed, so I think it's safe to say we can dismiss them. Neither of these things is something that could easily be developed in secret. Especially a crew capsule, which would require a lot of highly visible testing. And, if NK was doing it as propaganda to show that their space program is peaceful, they wouldn't be keeping it secret anyway.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline daedalus1

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #5 on: 07/05/2022 07:55 pm »
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again.

Predictions for spaceflight 2023:
- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch
- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023 assuming that the Artemis 1 mission unexpectedly will accomplish some objectives otherwise earmarked for Artemis 2
- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft
- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)
- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba
- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt
- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket
- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches
- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite
- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam

LOL.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #6 on: 08/17/2022 03:57 am »
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:
- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest
- There will be four or five Angara rocket launches
- China carries out two launches of the CSSHQ spaceplane
- RS1 makes its maiden launch
- North Korea conducts the first launch of a missile warning satellite designed to detect Minuteman and Sentinel launches
- VSS Imagine carries out its first flight
- Oryol spacecraft makes its first flight
- Proton rocket is retired from service, assuming that Elektro-L No.5 launch takes place in Q3 2023

Online hektor

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #7 on: 08/17/2022 08:40 pm »
So my favourite prediction again.

During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.

All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".

 ;D

 
« Last Edit: 08/17/2022 08:44 pm by hektor »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #8 on: 08/17/2022 11:50 pm »
So my favourite prediction again.

During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.

All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".

 ;D
This kind of prediction is very far-fetched, and not going to happen at all next year.

I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:
- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions
- Iran and Iraq agree to jointly develop a variant of the Simorgh rocket to be used to launch the completed but unlaunched Al-Ta’ir 1 and Al-Ta’ir 2 satellites (which were intended to launched atop the Al-Abid SLV but not put in storage because the aftermath of Operation Desert Storm caused the Al-Abid program to be terminated)
- Five launches of the LauncherOne are conducted from the UK
- Talon-A cleared for operational use after five captive-carry flights and ten free test flights from the Stratolaunch Model 351 Roc

Offline Jim

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #9 on: 08/24/2022 03:30 pm »

I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:
- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions
-

Blue Origin is not conducting any interplanetary and interstellar missions with its own money.

Offline Jim

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #10 on: 08/24/2022 03:32 pm »
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:
- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest


No, moving missions does not free up money for other launches.

Offline scienceguy

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #11 on: 09/05/2022 10:28 pm »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least once

Starship doesn’t fly

At least one space tourist goes to the international space station

Rocket lab flies at least once

NASA Perseverance rover finds more evidence of past water

NASA Curiosity rover finds more organic molecules

CO2 found in the atmosphere of another exoplanet

Exoplanet of Earth mass and distance from star for liquid water to exist found within 40 light years

More water found on moon

Asteroid passes close to Earth but doesn’t hit Earth
« Last Edit: 09/07/2022 09:48 pm by scienceguy »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline jmt27

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #12 on: 09/05/2022 11:31 pm »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least twice


Huhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...

Offline Hog

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #13 on: 09/06/2022 12:45 am »
Predictions for spaceflight 2023

SLS flies at least twice


Huhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...
"Yikes!
"In 2023 Congress funds operations at Michoud Assembly to allow Boeing to support 2 launches/year."  Maybe that's what he meant?
Paul

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #14 on: 09/06/2022 03:41 am »
Too early.  Plenty of things happening the rest of this year will shape next year.

Offline soyuzu

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #15 on: 09/06/2022 04:24 am »
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well! 8)

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #16 on: 09/06/2022 06:43 am »
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well! 8)
That's what this thread is for all the way to 2050:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=56245.msg2403711#new

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #17 on: 09/08/2022 02:16 am »
..
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 01:47 am by Mr. Scott »

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #18 on: 09/10/2022 01:26 am »
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:

Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).

Falcon Heavy launches 4 times

Falcon 9 launches ~70 times.

ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).

A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).

Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.

SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.

Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.

Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations.

30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.

US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).


Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #19 on: 09/10/2022 06:56 pm »
Glad to see the prediction thread up early, especially since I forgot to make some for the past several years. But there's no way I'm making any predictions until December. There's at least one (and perhaps more) SHLV launch, ABLs first launch, Firefly's second launch, and elections in like 30 different countries between now and then. Plus the war of course. We could be living in a different world come Christmas time.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline Finn Mac Doreahn

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #20 on: 09/11/2022 10:45 pm »
General space (will do specifics next month or so)

FAM season 4 is awesome and season 5 gets green lit.

David Sanders announces he is rebooting Man Conquers Space.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #21 on: 11/06/2022 06:49 am »
2023 predictions:
Revised 29 December 2022.

SpaceX related predictions:
Quote
1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.
1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.
1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).
1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).

2) Falcon 9 family.
2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.
2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.
2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.
2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.

3) Starship
3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A
3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.
3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.
3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starling Gen2 deployment.

4) Starlink
4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.
4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.

Orbital rockets (besides Starship) in development as of December 2022 that originally were predicted to have a first launch date of 2020 or earlier:
Quote
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.
5.1) Not all rockets that make their debut in 2023 will have a perfect launch record that year. Something possibly disputed by the launch provider that developed the orbital launch vehicle.

6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.

7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.

Startup rocket companies:
Quote
8) At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.

9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.

General:
Quote
10) Rocketlab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.
10.1) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.

11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.

12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.
12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal.


13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.

14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches.

15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.

16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.

17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.

18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true.

« Last Edit: 12/29/2022 07:23 am by AmigaClone »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #22 on: 11/16/2022 04:45 pm »
Predictions for Spaceflight 2023:

Starship launches for the first time, gets to orbit, but full test of starship re-entry doesn't fully work. i.e. it contacts the water off Hawaii in more than one piece. It makes two more orbital launches in 2023 (3 total).

Falcon Heavy launches 4 times

Falcon 9 launches ~70 times.

ULA launches Atlas V 6 times including 2 crewed Starliner flights, and Vulcan twice (both successfully; peregrine [April], and then either Kuiper sats or a dummy payload [August]).

A Late 2022 Prediction: ULA, Amazon, and DOD strike a deal to repurpose some of Amazon's Atlas V's for DOD payloads that had been awarded to Vulcan (to make up for the Vulcan delays). (DOD cannot legally award launches to Atlas V after 12/31/2022).

Blue Origin surprises the world and rolls out a New Glenn core stage (with engines) to the pad for WDR testing. It does not launch in 2023 though.

SLS does not launch in 2023. But Artemis I Orion reenters and splashes down in 2023.

Ariane 6 launches twice. Both successfully.

Virgin Galactic and Virgin Orbit both shut down, go bankrupt, or otherwise cease operations.

30 humans are launched to orbit in 2023.

US Astronauts on Artemis II will be announced (Koch, Tingle).
The Artemis 1 mission successfully launched today, ending an arduous months-long cycle of wet dress rehearsals and pre-launch fueling tests for the SLS rocket.

I predict that the Vulcan rocket will launch in January 2023, and that the Dream Chaser will launch next June if the first launch of the Vulcan rocket is successful and more BE-4 engines are manufactured and delivered to ULA on time.

Offline Hog

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #23 on: 11/16/2022 04:54 pm »
1) Artemis-1 will NOT launch in 2023.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #24 on: 11/20/2022 08:44 pm »
Since the Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17 are the biggest North Korean ballistic missiles ever built, it is possible that the DPRK next year could carry out the first launch of a human-rated SLV (albeit an unmanned launch lofting a mock-up of a manned capsule similar to the Shenzhou and Soyuz) whereby the Hwasong-15 or Hwasong-17 airframe is used for the first stage of the SLV and the second stage is based on the Hwasong-6.

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #25 on: 12/04/2022 12:41 am »
It is December.  Time to get your predictions for 2023 in.

Offline chopsticks

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #26 on: 12/04/2022 02:34 am »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #27 on: 12/04/2022 07:47 pm »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?

Offline Gliderflyer

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #28 on: 12/04/2022 08:52 pm »
Artemis:
- Blue loses App P and is not happy about it
- None of the CLPS landers work
- Zero new official renders come out about SpaceX HLS

SpaceX:
- Work continues on the orbital launch mount
- One Orbital attempt in the second half of the year
- The orbital attempt is unsuccessful
- The Worm Booster is lost and the internet is extremely sad

ULA:
- Vulcan flies in Q2 and works perfectly
- Tory posts videos of SMART component testing

Blue:
- Something that looks like New Glenn is put on the pad for some amount of testing
- No new info on Clipper
- Work on their lander continues

Other:
- The Long March 9 design changes again
- Rocket Lab has no failures
- Firefly flies twice
- A smallsat company goes bankrupt
- ABL flies three times
I tried it at home

Offline chopsticks

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #29 on: 12/04/2022 11:28 pm »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.

Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
« Last Edit: 12/04/2022 11:36 pm by chopsticks »

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #30 on: 12/05/2022 03:59 am »
Sheesh, just skimmed over this thread and it seems like it's mostly trolls posting.

Why is everyone you disagree with a troll?
That's quite a conclusion you've drawn there.

Would you agree or disagree that saying things like "Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 451 degrees Fahrenheit by July." or that North Korea will be launching people is a bit trollish?
North Korea has launched two spacecraft into orbit, and it's not implausible that the DPRK is undertaking development of a manned spacecraft combining the solar panels of the Shenzhou spacecraft with the design of the Dragon 2 spacecraft, with an eye on launching an unmanned mockup of the notional manned capsule first. The Gaganyaan spacecraft is under development by India, and my take on the possibility of North Korea launching an unmanned prototype of a manned spacecraft next year is derived from mention in the Korean Central News Agency of plans for a reconnaissance satellite.

I'm also making additional predictions for 2023:
- Two launches of the Angara rocket
- Roscosmos decides to revive the Angara 1.1 program as a nominal long-term replacement for the Soyuz 2.1v
- Long March 9 design is finalized

Offline sdsds

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #31 on: 12/05/2022 06:24 am »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:
[EDIT: Wed 21 Dec 2022 10:12:25 PM UTC]

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
[Note: VV22 and comments by others below.]
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
« Last Edit: 12/21/2022 09:14 pm by sdsds »
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #32 on: 12/05/2022 11:25 am »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I really doubt that Ariane 6 will fly at all in 2023.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #33 on: 12/05/2022 09:34 pm »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
- Ariane 6 flies successfully in both 2 and 4 booster configurations
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
I agree with you that one or two Angara launches could take place in 2023, given that the Angara 1.2 recently made its first orbital launches (the Angara A5 was the first Angara variant to conduct an orbital flight because the first Angara 1.2 launch was suborbital) and the Angara 1.2 is taking over launch roles once occupied by the Zenit, Dnepr, and Tsyklon.

I strongly doubt that NASA would delay Artemis 2 by several more months because back in March 2015 a tentative launch time frame for Artemis 2 (originally called EM-2 before 2019) could take place in either 2021 or 2026, and NASA reviews published in 2017-2019 had estimated that Artemis 2 might be launched sometime in the 2022-2023 timeframe, in which case the 2024 launch window for this mission floated last year could work out.

Boeing's first manned Starliner mission taking place in 2023 is a foregone conclusion, but with the caveat that the window of opportunity for Starliner-1 to be launched next year has been quashed by a busy schedule of Dragon 2 manned and cargo flights scheduled for 2023. Assuming that the first Vulcan launch meets expectations and the next batches of flight-ready BE-4 engines are test run and delivered to ULA on time, there would be good reason to believe that the target time frame for the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser with the Vulcan will remain set in stone.
« Last Edit: 12/05/2022 09:46 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline CameronD

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #34 on: 12/05/2022 10:05 pm »
My Spaceflight Prediction for 2023:

A launch from somewhere in Australia that actually makes it to orbit.  8)

With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine - however, this is not necessarily a good idea. It is hard to be sure where they are
going to land, and it could be dangerous sitting under them as they fly overhead.

Offline novak

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #35 on: 12/29/2022 05:49 am »
newspace/smallsat centered predictions this year.

-spaceX continues to crush it despite elon's apparently erratic influence
-not with starship though, neither stage is recovered after a flight close to an orbital attempt
-relativity space fails to make orbit
-ABL fails to make orbit more than once
-reggie returns to earth
-vulcan launches successfully
-rocketlab has some launches but less than they claim, reuse remains elusive
-firefly has some launches but less than they claim by a lot
-VG doesn't do anything interesting
-blue doesn't do anything interesting
-VO technically does something but either very badly or very slowly so no one even notices
-astra manages to do something but it's explosive
--
novak

Offline hkultala

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #36 on: 12/29/2022 06:28 am »
SpaceX:

* Starship launch pad in Cape Canaveral finished
* Phobos or Deimos launch platform finished (not both)
* Starship finally launches in the spring, and 10-20 other launches follow. All launches contain Starlink satellites, no external customers launches yet.
* One landing failure on Starship. Big headlines and clueless people commenting how SpaceX is wasting tens of millions of dollars money by exploding spacecraft.
* SpaceX signs more launch contracts for Starship than for Falcon family
* >60 Falcon 9 launches
* 5 FH launches
ULA:
* Vulcan launches multiple times
* No progress on "SMART reuse"

Blue Origin
* >10 suborbital tourist hops of New Shepard.
* New Glenn reaches launch pad, but not launched yet

Europe:
* Ariane 6 sitting in the launch pad at the end of the year but not yet launched

Rocket Lab:
* ~10 successful launches of Electron
* about half of boosters successfuly recovered
* Neutron not yet ready, but progressing steadily and Peter posts instagram pictures of some new parts of Neutron

Russia:

* Angara (1.2) launches once
* Soyuz and Proton laucnh multiple times
* Some cosmonauts get killed in an accident. Either Soyuz MS-22 fails on departure from ISS/re-entry, or there is a launch failure and also the LES fails due to components that should be in the LES being stolen.

China:

* China launches more flights to orbit than SpaceX, but average payload still small

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #37 on: 12/29/2022 11:31 am »
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.
I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.

Online catdlr

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #38 on: 12/29/2022 12:47 pm »
I predict that there will eventually be a "Predictions 2024" thread.
I will let myself out now. Y'all have a great New Years Eve and best wishes for 2023.

Aw hell, you beat me to it. ;-)
Tony De La Rosa

Offline Star One

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Predictions 2023
« Reply #39 on: 12/29/2022 04:36 pm »
Starship doesn’t reach orbit

Vulcan launches successfully at least once as does H3

Ariane 6 is delayed further. Vega doesn’t launch in 2023.

Electron continues to launch successfully though reusability remains elusive. Neutron makes steady progress.

Possible indicators of life are detected on at least one of the planets in the TRAPPIST system
« Last Edit: 12/29/2022 04:41 pm by Star One »

Online freddo411

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #40 on: 12/29/2022 07:00 pm »
Predictions for 2023 include carryovers from 2022 as well as some new, great expectations

Predictions from 2022 turned out 20/21.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55152.msg2324903#msg2324903


2023 Predictions


* SLS does NOT attempt it's very first manned launch in 2023

* Ariane/ULA/China/Japan does NOT field a reusable rocket.

* ULA expendable Vulcan flies on it's first test flight

* Blue Origin does NOT launch an orbital rocket

* Boeing Starliner will complete crew certification in 2023

* 51 years after the end of Apollo program, no human will have gone beyond LEO. (No dear moon)

* A Starship stack launches high enough and fast enough to test it's heat shield.

* Falcon Heavy flies (again)

* Crew Dragon flies at least twice (again).

* Falcon 9 reliability in 2023 is perfect.

* SX flies more than 50 orbital launches  (61 is the previous record)

* A Falcon 9 booster flies for it's 17th mission reused

* Falcon 9 will have more REFLIGHTS than any other American rocket type has flights

* SX flies more (NASA astronauts + Dragon riders) than any other nation does .

* Private astronauts will fly (again) to orbit in 2023. 

* Over 1,700,000+ Starlink terminals operating by end of 2023.   Equivalent to over 2 billion dollar a year revenue stream.

* High Speed, low latency starlink internet connections are widely available on airlines/ships/vehicles

* Rocket lab flies to orbit at least 4 times

* Rocket lab attempts the FIRST EVER private interplanetary mission. Proving NdGT wrong again.

* A successful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

* An unsuccessful flight for a commercial startup small sat launcher (other than rocketlab)

* A Russian rocket or spacecraft suffers a significant problem (again)

* Ariane launches 6 or fewer rockets

* China successfully flies an impressive mission that provides some Chinese firsts

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #41 on: 12/30/2022 06:11 pm »
Japan
- H3 launches within a week of it’s current scheduled launch date (February 12th)
- HTV-X isn’t delayed any more than it already has been, and makes good progress towards its 2024 launch.
- Epsilon return to launch occurs within the year, and is successful.
- Some visible progress from Space One. Couldn’t begin to guess what form that would take.
H-IIA retires gracefully. All successes.

India
- Gaganyaan G1, the first uncrewed test of India’s crew capsule, launches successfully in December.

Arianespace
- Ariane 6 first flight is delayed until after the 1st quarter of 2024.
- Vega remains grounded all year.
  Sorry Europe….

SpaceX (Inspired/stolen from sdsds):
- Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 2-5 times
- One Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy, but not an actual orbit.
    - There are endless arguments about how to categorize this flight.
- Overall number of Falcon 9 launches is actually smaller than 2022, though perhaps not by much.

SLS/Orion
- To widespread shock, Artemis 2 stays on its current track, with no further delays.
- Something about Orion’s condition after Artemis 1 comes to light. There is a lot of shouting about this something, but it ultimately does not matter.

ISS
- Starliner has a successful Crewed flight to ISS in 2023, but not until the second half of the year.
- Cygnus launches to the ISS on a Falcon 9 in Q4.
- Dreamchaser cargo launches summer 2023.

Other NASA crewed Programs
- The Dynetics ALPACA is selected as the alternate lunar lander.
- Blue Origin throws the corporate tantrum of the century over the above.
- Axiom’s station project continues without major issue, though there may be a delay of a few months.
- Significant funding is allocated for Orbital Reef and Starlab.

New Intermediate Launchers (American)
- Vulcan launches in the first quarter, without Astrobotic. It’s a flawless flight.
- New Glenn rolls out to the pad, and even makes a launch attempt, but does not launch in 2023.
- Against all odds, Neutron and Antares 330 both seem to remain on track to launch in 2024.
- Firefly/NG announces plans for ‘MLV’ to launch in 2025.
- Stoke Space has an extremely successful hop test campaign with their upper stage.
- Promising progress is made on Terran R, perhaps a hopper test campaign using the Aeon R engine.
- Despite that, Terran R is delayed.

New 1-ton Launchers (American)
- ABL’s RS1, Relativity’s Terran 1, and a Firefly Alpha all leave the pad during Q1 of the year.
- RS1 and Terran 1 each leave the pad twice in 2023.
- RS1 gets off the pad before Terran 1, by less than a fortnight.
- RS1 leaves the pad between January 9th and 13th.
- Either RS1 or Terran 1 makes orbit on its very first flight.

Operational Small Launch (American?)
- Electron launches successfully from Wallops in January.
- 1-3 more Electrons launch from Wallops in 2023.
- 8+ Electron launches overall in 2023.
- Virgin Orbit conducts the first orbital launch from “British soil”.
- That is literally the only Virgin Orbit flight all year, and I’m very sad about it.

Other
- PLD Space’s Miura 1 launches in the first half of the year.
- Dawn Aerospace conducts a successful test series using the current vehicle, with its rocket engine now installed.
- Dawn Aerospace continues to be viewed with severe skepticism on this forum nonetheless.
- Skyrora’s first orbital launch attempt is delayed to 2024.
- Orbex rolls a vehicle out to the pad.
Wait, ∆V? This site will accept the ∆ symbol? How many times have I written out the word "delta" for no reason?

Offline Mr. Scott

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #42 on: 01/01/2023 01:47 am »
* Collier Trophy: Crewed Starship with Solid Rocket Boosters on SLS (which also features Solid Rocket Boosters) with a Block 3 payload fairing.
* North Korea lands a team of astronauts on the moon and returns them safely.
* JWST discovers an exoplanet with an atmosphere that continuously rains liquid Kool-Aid.
* After somebody posts a survey asking whether NSF should buy Twitter, a flood of live webcasts from location allows NASASpaceFlight to buy Twitter
 for $55 a share.  NSF moderators put a total lock down all tweets around the world!
* NASA unveils a new missions to flight test patio furniture and lawn ornaments for sustainable deep space exploration.
* Orion capsule flight test dummies are given a ticker tape parade in NYC.
* Global warming accelerates and temperatures in Washington DC reach 150 degrees Fahrenheit by July.
* Multiple government shutdowns.  Political parties divide between those that want to go to the Moon, and those that want to go to Mars, and those that will admittedly just stay here on Earth with Bernie Sanders. 
* Deep fryers to be installed on all future Starship vehicles to allow crew to make some fries while on the Moon.
* Twitter buys the NASASpaceFlight website and YouTube channel but immediately sells it to ESPN+ UFC for Pay-Per-View viewers to watch moderated cage matches over non-SLS v SLS f a n b o I s. Non-SLS wins by using a choke hold aided by the moderators.  Proceeds from the Vegas odds buys a future ride on Starship.
* Emperor Palpatine decides to become a billionaire and start a new space company. His initial business plan is to allow others to use the Death Star to perform heavy ion beam particle experiments on electronics since all of the Earth’s particle accelerators are already at full capacity.
* New NASA program announced to stop Earth’s climate change in the near term and long term. Near term solution is to rotate the moon so that the far side faces Earth. Long term solution is to propel and steer our solar system from its ultimate demise plunging into the galactic center black hole. 
* The History Channel series Ancient Aliens begins discussions to merge with with YouTube icon Angry Astronaut to make a new YouTube docuseries called Ancient Angry Alien Astronauts.  The show will provide tangible supporting evidence for totally mad civilizations who used to blog about space exploration of their species before technologies were ever demonstrated or sufficiently funded. 
* Betelgeuse explodes in massive terrifying supernova.  Solar power systems produce enough energy to power the planet for the next thousand years.  Unfortunately, half of the planet’s citizens are depleting all of the existing sunburn lotion resources.
* Artemis I launch finally occurs on Dec 25th 2022.  Orion returns to Earth with several questions in 2023.
* With a hasty late night Omnibus vote, Congress decides to fund small businesses to terraform Venus by 2028.
* Vulcan launch vehicle redesign with different engines for different programs.
* Bill Nelson retires after a successful Artemis I launch.  Next NASA administrator: Michael Bay. 
* Massive cost cuts eliminate all engineers at NASA.
* Scientists caught using actual data from Mars.
* SpaceX Starship returns to suborbital testing for point to point travel.
* NASA reorganization splits and focus only on science programs.  Human spaceflight is ended.  ISS decommissioned.  Commercial crew returns all ISS astronauts to Earth.
* Kessler syndrome initiates and prevents human spaceflight to LEO.
* Astrobotic launch to the moon postponed to 2025.
* Sun declared to be in a decade long mood that is too hazardous for human spaceflight.
* Fusion reactor progress declared.  Electric vehicle sales increase by an order of magnitude due to fusion power.
* Detection of signals from local star prompts massive investments in radio astronomy facilities.  Short wave radio fanatics begin a new renaissance.
* Jeff Bezos Mothership concept delights magazine covers.  Sustainable station to be built that floats in the Pacific Ocean. New company started to colonize the ocean.  Blue Origin is sold to ULA.
* Mars is delisted as a planet and considered to be a rogue moon.  Evidence found that it was once a moon of Jupiter having remarkable similarity to Io.  Similarly, Mercury is also declared to be a rogue moon of Venus.  Pluto is declared to be a rogue moon of an unknown origin.
* Hybrid electric passenger aircraft to fly at Mach 100 revealed.  Seat cushions are still made out of foam in case of a water landing.
* Top Gun 3 begins filming.  Tom Cruise begins filming while in orbit.  He takes an X-Wing and begins an attack run to successfully destroy the moon - saving the Earth from dying of boredom while watching continuous tank farm coverage.
* New 2023 NSF Thread:  Dumpster Fire UPDATES
* Movie of the year 2023: Trolls in Space - in Theaters and on YouTube via NASASpaceFlight
« Last Edit: 01/22/2023 01:14 am by Mr. Scott »

Offline Bubbinski

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #43 on: 01/01/2023 02:49 am »
Okay here goes:

75 F9 launches in 2023. 5 launches between Falcon Heavy and Starship

Starship stack finally flies this year

12 crewed space flights (orbital and suborbital) in 2023.

350+ space launch attempts (orbital and suborbital) in 2023. (317 in 2022 as per Wikipedia)

Vulcan makes its launch debut this year. So does Terran 1. Ariane 6 moves to 2024.

Firefly has more hiccups but goes operational late in the year.

Astra folds.

Virgin Orbit flies from Britain, and is “saved by the bell” from suffering Astra’s fate.

Rocket Lab finally makes double digits, flies from Wallops, gets a helicopter recovery.

JUICE and Psyche finally launch successfully this year. Euclid does as well.

HAKUTO successfully lands on the Moon. At least one of the CLPS missions flies successfully as well.

Artemis II still officially planned for 2024 at the end of the year, though there will be some growing chatter about early 2025.

Artemis II crew named mid year, later than expected. CDR McClain, PLT Glover, MS Kutryk, MS Hague

New Shepard returns to flight, though cadence is fairly limited. 4 flights, 2 crewed.

Virgin Galactic flies one test flight above McDowell Line before end of year.

Xuntian telescope launches but suffers problems. Mission lost.

Chinese fly about same number of missions as this year, space station stays occupied.

Gaganyaan first test flight pushed into 2024. As is Chandrayaan 3.

Japanese HIII debuts.

South Koreans launch another satellite with their homegrown launch vehicle.

European Vega-C launch failure report released. Ariane 5 flies out its last missions successfully.

One nation makes its orbital launch debut to join the ranks of spacefaring nations.

Ukraine War ends dramatically but world no closer to peace as another hotspot erupts. Spaceflight and world economy affected. Geopolitically 2023 is more impactful than 1991.

First TRAPPIST data from Webb published in peer review. TRAPPIST 1b has no atmosphere. Inconclusive with other planets in the system.

Webb helps find the first confirmed exomoon

By end of 2023 Webb breaks record for most distant galaxy ever found.

Webb also finds something that could rewrite cosmology.

Major earthquake hits a facility important to spaceflight, somewhere in the world, does damage.

Number of confirmed exoplanets passes 6000 by end of year.

I build another spaceflight related model.

New Prediction: Dream Chaser will be at the Cape being prepped for flight by December, but first flight NET Q1 2024
« Last Edit: 01/08/2023 07:46 pm by Bubbinski »
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline Skamp_X

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #44 on: 01/01/2023 03:07 am »
Artimis 2 net 2025
star ship orbital test before end of year.
Hardware made to transport starships with boats between Boca Chica and cape
Demos or phobos gets major work done to catch booster and/or starship
Plans will explain 2nd tower at cape will be for catching booster only , at first, launch from first tower.
Legs' on star ship have a comeback.
No contact with ET
First EXo moon is confirmed
New pluto sized object is found in outer solar system
Voyager 1 stops transmitting (really hope not)


Offline jdon759

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #45 on: 01/01/2023 05:25 am »
Haven't made predictions before, I'll start easy.

Several rockets will launch to space.  At least one of these will go BEO.
More than one rocket will reach orbit using CH4 as a fuel. 

At least one surprise development will occur, pleasing most people. There may also be several disappointments, though these will likely not be surprises (since most space enthusiasts have learned to be somewhat pessimistic).

Jaems

Edit #1:  removed several double-posts.
Edit #2:  did not add any more predictions.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2023 07:02 pm by jdon759 »

Offline marcus79

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #46 on: 01/01/2023 10:05 am »
India will have a good 2023, with succesful missions of their test crew spacecraft and lunar mission.

China will have a good 2023 too, but not so spectacular, mostly laying the groundwork for future years. The ZQ-2 will launch succesfully, as will the Xuntian space telescope.

In the USA, Vulcan will be launced succesfully. Starship orbital will launch in Spring and clear the tower, but not achieve orbit. Another attempt in Autumn is succesful in reaching orbit, however the re-entry is a failure. The pressures on SpaceX and the finances of Musk will grow given the economic situation. A reusable booster and expandable tanker variant might be explored to support the HLS.

Russia will give us some dramatics, but its program is at a standstill development wise with R&D capacity diverted to military technology. One solution they might seek is to cooperate with the Chinese on nuclear technology (Zevs/TEM).

Europe, same old.

Japan, same old too.

Space science will bring more spectacular findings, we are getting to a golden age in this regard.

Orbital debris sadly will be an even bigger topic in 2023, but more steps will be taken to implement changes to mitigate it (as a topic it will enter diplomatic circles at a higher level, given the economic and security aspects of space).
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 10:12 am by marcus79 »

Offline Jeff Lerner

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #47 on: 01/01/2023 11:27 am »
The only prediction I will make is that Elon Musk will no longer be the CEO of Twitter and will get back his focus to getting to Mars.

Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #48 on: 01/01/2023 03:54 pm »
US There will be almost 100 launches. Some accidents for small private rockets. Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash. Starship will carry out a mission with a controversial outcome, which some will consider a success and some a failure. About 65 Falcons will be launched, all successful.
CN No significant events. About 70 launches. Several failures with light carriers.
RU Over 30 launches. MS-23 will fly empty, cosmonauts and astronaut will remain until MS-24. The MS-22 will return empty with no problem. Luna 25 will land successfully. There will be no launch of Angrara from Vostochny, it will be postponed to 2024. There will be at least 2 launches of A5 from Plesetsk. Soyuz 5 will not be launched and will be scheduled for a new launch site in Russia.
EU Only 3 starts. The Ariane 6 will only have one test flight, the Vega won't be cleared until 2024.
IN 7 launches. Chandrayan will land successfully, more delays on the manned program. SSLV successful.
JP 3 launches. H-3 successful.
IR, SK and NK All at least one successful launch.
All at least one successful launch.

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #49 on: 01/01/2023 04:25 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #50 on: 01/01/2023 04:45 pm »
NASA
   Announces crew for Artemis II by July 4th
   Gets 2 more countries to sign Artemis Accords
   Proposals for lunar habitat emerge
   Continued progress on Artemis II
      EUS on schedule
      Costs stay ridiculously high
   Budget proposed late 2023 for 2024 will be roughly equal to inflation increase

Blue origin
   New Glenn gets pulled out to pad by end of summer. (at least first stage)
      Set of flight engines for first booster mounted on First stage by end of July
                Start test firing of engines on pad by end of year
                Reusable second stage will have small wings like first stage for greater cross range on landing and
                          bleed off speed higher in atmosphere to reduce heating of stage body.
      Make official that three variants of reusable upper stage are planned for coming decade
         Cargo (capable of rendezvous and docking payload)
            Recoverable launch shroud fished out of water
            Pressurized cargo module with new larger docking hatch for Orbital Reef station
         Tanker can go lunar orbit and back /w refueling
         Crewed with up to 8 passengers and crew, (LEO and LUNAR orbit)

   HLS proposal now fully reusable from beginning.  Can use Lox from Moon to increase cargo capacity
                for return to orbit.

Small launch providers
   Several will start going out of business because too many exist for potential market

SpaceX
   Starship to orbit on first attempt Q1 2023
   Mechazilla landing attempt successful Q3
   No in orbit refueling before end of year
        HLS progress stays on schedule
                Basic cabin and cargo bay design done.

Virgin galactic
   Still don’t care

ULA
   Vulcan Successfully puts Peregrine Lunar Lander on course to Moon Q2
                Peregrine successfully lands on Moon
                Gets at least four more sets of BE-4 flight engines for Vulcan in 2023
                2 more successful flights by end of year

Boeing
        CST-100 one flight with crew to ISS


Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #51 on: 01/01/2023 04:55 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #52 on: 01/01/2023 07:41 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx
In reference to your point, Israel's Beresheet was a privately-funded lander, but India's Chandrayaan-2 was state-owned.
Back to the topic:  I'd like to add 'Beresheet-1' and 'Chandrayaan-3' landings to 2023, but I don't know if either is planned for this year.
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #53 on: 01/01/2023 07:51 pm »
Look to 2024 for Beresheet 2, but Chandrayaan 3 is targeted for some time in the summer of 2023 (at the moment)

Beresheet 2 link:

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3912152,00.html

Offline Blackhavvk

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #54 on: 01/01/2023 08:03 pm »
.....Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash...
What leads you to think the Peregrine lander will crash?
PS:  Belated welcome to the forum.
A few reasons.
1) Commercial space programs face more contingencies than state-owned ones, which gained a lot of experience from their accidents back in the 60s. It is naive to assume that all landing missions will be successful.
2) The current rush and the relationship with the first flight of the new launch vehicle will create prerequisites for accidents.
3) Competition with IM creates additional pressure.
But this is just an assumption, of course I wish success to all lunar landers.
PS Thx
In reference to your point, Israel's Beresheet was a privately-funded lander, but India's Chandrayaan-2 was state-owned.
Back to the topic:  I'd like to add 'Beresheet-1' and 'Chandrayaan-3' landings to 2023, but I don't know if either is planned for this year.
Chandrayan's failure was unexpected. But it should be noted that India has significantly less experience in space than the US, Russia or China.

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #55 on: 01/01/2023 08:27 pm »
Forgot to do predictions for 2022, but I did pretty poorly for 2021. Let's see if I can do any better this year!

NASA:
- Artemis II is officially delayed at least into H2 2024, or maybe 2025
- PPE/HALO launch delayed to 2025 as well
- ML2 construction starts but is slow due to a lack of funding.
- Mars Sample Return really begins to take shape and has a good shot at actually happening.
- The "Habitable Worlds Observatory" (next big scope after Webb) begins planning and details are released. Same with the Lynx-derived X-ray telescope to follow it.
- The Uranus and Enceladus missions recommended by the Decadal Survey begin planning in earnest with some details released.

ULA:
- Vulcan's maiden launch goes smoothly, but Peregrine has an issue preventing it from landing successfully
- Dream Chaser debuts in H2 2023. Mission is a success, with a few first-launch issues that are corrected in flight.

Smallsats:
- Relativity's first launch ends in failure, but still provides a metric crapton of data. The next launch (with the first payloads) is successful.
- ABL also has a first-launch issue but succeeds on the second try.
- Rocket Lab performs their first Wallops launch successfully.
- Rocket Lab catches and recovers their first booster. No full booster refight, but more components fly again.
- Neutron development continues, and more test articles are shown off. No Archimedes firing.

Blue Origin:
- Successful return-to-flight of New Shepard, but it will be a few flights until a crew flies again.
    Extreme speculation: Issue of the NS-23 failure is from a procedure error (i.e. something done incorrectly during refurbishment, not a design issue).
- No New Glenn flight or vehicle on the pad this year. More test articles are made and slowly shown off. Qualification first stage is completed or nearly completed. Work on the first flight vehicle begins in earnest by the end of the year. In 2023, the flight is set for mid-2024, but will eventually slip to the end of 2024 or into 2025.

SpaceX (where I got most of my predictions wrong in 2021):
- SpaceX as a whole gets pretty close to 100 launches in 2023, but doesn't exactly hit it.
- No loss of Falcon missions, but one first stage fails to land.
- 4 Falcon Heavy missions in 2023. Psyche finally leaves the ground. We finally have a dual-ASDS landing.
- Polaris Dawn goes very smoothly. Polaris 2 (Polaris Noon?) planning is finalized as a Hubble reboost mission, with perhaps an EVA to visually inspect the telescope. No refurbishments or intrusive inspections will be performed.
- Starship's first orbital flight is in Q2 2023, or late Q1 at the earliest. Has a failure during flight that is corrected on the next flight a few months after.
- No non-Starlink payloads fly on Starship this year, with perhaps the exception of a few CubeSats or flight analysis payloads from NASA or the DoD.
- Dear Moon, to the shock of no one, does not fly this year, and probably won't before 2026 at the earliest.
- The 39A Starship pad is finished and the Roberts Road Starfactory and Mega Bay are completed. Test ring stacks and bulkheads are produced at the most, but no flight hardware. No Starship flights from 39A in 2023.
- Only 3-5 Starship flights in 2023, at most.
- A booster is successfully caught, after a previous mission demonstrates a water landing. No ships are caught or land on dry land. Perhaps one is recovered from the water.

International:
- ISS continues to operate well. iROSA installation and Nauka outfitting are completed. No loss of servicing missions.
- Ariane 6 slips into 2024, while Ariane 5 flies out its final missions successfully. Go JUICE!
- H3 launches successfully, paving the way for HTV-X and other missions.
- Vega-C returns to flight, but likely gets less commercial interest...

Misc.
- No discovery of Planet 9, but work continues.
« Last Edit: 01/01/2023 08:33 pm by IanThePineapple »

Offline AS_501

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #56 on: 01/02/2023 12:18 am »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)
Launches attended:  Apollo 11, ASTP (@KSC, not Baikonur!), STS-41G, STS-125, EFT-1, Starlink G4-24, Artemis 1
Notable Spacecraft Observed:  Echo 1, Skylab/S-II, Salyuts 6&7, Mir Core/Complete, HST, ISS Zarya/Present, Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, Dragon Demo-2, Starlink G4-14 (8 hrs. post-launch), Tiangong

Offline woods170

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #57 on: 01/02/2023 02:21 pm »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)

No, they don't, and neither do I. But I also predict that Peregrine will crash. But that is just because I'm a hardcore cynic.

Offline Star One

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #58 on: 01/03/2023 10:15 am »
Ian:  You're the second person to predict that Peregrine will crash.  Do you guys know something I don't know?  :)

No, they don't, and neither do I. But I also predict that Peregrine will crash. But that is just because I'm a hardcore cynic.
To me a position that’s just as bad as a hardcore over optimist.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #59 on: 01/05/2023 02:17 am »
US There will be almost 100 launches. Some accidents for small private rockets. Vulkan will fly only 1 time, but successfully, although the lander will crash. Starship will carry out a mission with a controversial outcome, which some will consider a success and some a failure. About 65 Falcons will be launched, all successful.
CN No significant events. About 70 launches. Several failures with light carriers.
RU Over 30 launches. MS-23 will fly empty, cosmonauts and astronaut will remain until MS-24. The MS-22 will return empty with no problem. Luna 25 will land successfully. There will be no launch of Angrara from Vostochny, it will be postponed to 2024. There will be at least 2 launches of A5 from Plesetsk. Soyuz 5 will not be launched and will be scheduled for a new launch site in Russia.
EU Only 3 starts. The Ariane 6 will only have one test flight, the Vega won't be cleared until 2024.
IN 7 launches. Chandrayan will land successfully, more delays on the manned program. SSLV successful.
JP 3 launches. H-3 successful.
IR, SK and NK All at least one successful launch.
All at least one successful launch.
Given hints by North Korea about preparing for launching a spy satellite this April, it may be more likely than not that the first DPRK spy satellite launch might take place around the 111th anniversary of Kim Il-Sung's birth, but whether the next launch of the Nuri SLV comes before the DPRK spy satellite launch remains to be seen.

Since the first orbital launch of the Dream Chaser is now scheduled for this summer and will be carried atop the Vulcan, and the USSF-112, USSF-106, and USSF-87 are scheduled for launch this year, there will be more than one Vulcan launch this year because the Vulcan is intended to replace the Atlas V and Delta IV Heavy.

I'm holding out the possibility that Starship will conduct its maiden orbital launch in early spring of this year.

Offline scienceguy

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e^(pi*i) = -1

 

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