Predictions for 2050

[laszlo]

Machine learning will be the latest tech confused with AI (In the past it was chess-playing, calculus, translation, etc.). People who don't understand the difference will assume that the machines actually know what they're doing and will trust them. The algorithms will be fed data that reinforces the owners' biases. As a result, the economy will be wrecked, climate change will be accelerated instead of reversed and there will be widespread warfare as desperate people try to find a dry place to live, clean water to drink and anything to eat. The algorithms will be used to direct the wars and weapons and the large nation states will be destroyed because of the biased data that reinforces cultural stereotypes and underestimates the enemy. The world will revert to autocratic theocracies as people look for any kind of leader to get them through their daily troubles..

Space flight will have stopped in the 2000's because of the LEO debris from mega-constellations and orbital warfare. Any satellites that survived the hunter-killer ASATs will have been destroyed by the debris and become more debris themselves. The space hobbyist billionaires were exterminated with the rest of the 1/2%, the way the French aristocracy was in the 18th century, by people who needed food, water and a dry place to sleep.

Without easy long-distance travel, pandemics are rare. However, environmentally-caused diseases, such as cancer, COPD, etc. replace them as the air and water polluted with the by-products of burned and submerged cities and the pollution of war (radiation, toxic chemicals, etc.) are inhaled and ingested by the survivors.

A lone survivor in a ruined valley gazes wistfully at the moon and throws a useless cellphone into the sky.

[Alx]

Three things could happen by 2050.

1) fusion reactors.
2) General AI
3) universal robot (Tesla Bot)

What are the implications for space?

1) fusion reactors

Successes from companies like Helion or Zap Energy could lead to the development of a fusion engines.
In this case, the timeline will look something like
2030 - Creation of the first commercial stations
2040 - fusion engines
2050 - manned expeditions to asteroids, Jupiter and Saturn.

2070-s - there could be interstellar probe.

2) General AI + Robots

It might happen, it might not. Although some believe that it could happen as early as 2030.
It will significantly expand the possibilities of space exploration without human participation.

A robot that can independently perform scientific and construction tasks in space without human supervision.

Robot research bases.
The construction of human settlements in space.

[Eric Hedman]

Lockheed Martin got in the act with predictions about 2050:

https://twitter.com/TheGalacticGal/status/1583203432395333633

[JohnFornaro]

To the OP:

I'll be 97.

[JohnFornaro]

Each year on this site we do predictions for the following year.  While I like taking part in that, I think predictions for where the space industry will be by December 31, 2050 might be more interesting.

Elon Musk has predicted he will have a million people on Mars by 2050.  As much as I like what SpaceX is doing, I don’t believe the million people for a second ...

Why 2050?  It’s the year Musk made his predictions for Mars.  ... Predict away.  I think the responses should be interesting.  I’m working on my predictions.

When I first entered the prediction business on this site, back in '09, I made a reverse prediction that had we kept on going to the Moon, in the 40 years since '69, there could have been 100K people living on the Moon.

Musk is selling sizzle, not steak, regardless of his current accomplishments. 

But.

Things could change with the advent of a responsible world government.

[JohnFornaro]

No life found on any moon or planet or anywhere else in the universe

While absense of evidence is not evidence of absence, I think you're correct.

[JohnFornaro]

No.  I deal with people in oil exploration.  They tell me there is plenty of oil and we are nowhere near peak oil.  The technology they have developed is absolutely amazing as they keep finding better ways to extract oil from multiple types of geological structures.  The Permian Basin has plenty of oil available for the foreseeable future that does not require anywhere near the energy you claim it does to get it out.

Back in my 20's, I fell for the Club of Rome story line, believing that they had done the necessary review of proven reserves.  Turns out that they hadn't done that work, and, as has been pointed out above, didn't account for drilling tech improvements.

Thing is, the planet is finite, so technically, there has to be a peak oil point.

Just sayin'.

[AmigaClone]

No life found on any moon or planet or anywhere else in the universe

While absense of evidence is not evidence of absence, I think you're correct.

I believe that there is a chance no evidence of life by 2050 - except for life from planet Earth. That is not to say there is no life, just that we have not seen evidence of it yet.

[Greg Hullender]

1994 was 28 years ago, so that gives us some idea of the sort of scale of change we might expect. Anything that's not at least in the lab now will not be in production (and probably not even planning) by 2050. So no space elevators (maybe one on the moon though), no fusion rockets, no serious AI missions (e.g. capable of self repair), no hibernation, etc.

I think Starship actually will work, but the prices won't come down as much as people expect until there's competition. (Much as Falcon 9 prices haven't come down as much as was expected.) Serious competition may be 10 years away, or more, but once it happens, we might well see super-low costs of payload to orbit. If that doesn't happen, then 2050 won't look very different from today.

I think we'll have a base on the moon, but probably not before 2030. "We" means the US and Europe. I don't think Russia and China will still be major players in space by then.

We will finally have figured out how much gravity people actually need to be healthy and how much mammals need to reproduce. I think we'll also have figured out how to make rotating space structures work.

This process will take long enough that I think a manned Mars mission will be in the works, but I don't think any will have actually landed on Mars yet. There might have been a "mission to Phobos," though, and I think the Mars Sample Return will actually happen before then.

We'll have sent a new generation of unmanned probes to the outer planets--to Uranus and Neptune in particular--although they likely won't have arrived yet.

Space tourism will exist, but be negligible, with orbital tickets at ~$100,000 (2020 dollars) and trips to the moon for $1,000,000.

[Vahe231991]

Predictions 2050

* SpaceX Mothership is demonstrated with its first suborbital launch.  The 1 km wide mothership achieves 60,000 ft altitude, then extends actuated batwing flaps to a controlled descent.  Once it arrives 500 feet above the ground, it hovers and beams power to a fleet of eighteen wheeler Tesla trucks before firing plasma engines for landing.  Future funding is approved.

* Astronauts begin training for Mars by installing Neuralink implants to endure the hardships of a long space journey.  Most astronauts enjoy Neuralink as it allows them to sleep on a sofa in the office while working 85 hours a week with minimal exhaustion. All astronauts enjoy collecting rocks from their driveways throughout the week to extract essential oils as well as vital minerals nutrients.

* Drama ensues after legislation is signed into law that allows for the NASA Administrator to marry the Director of the Space Force. The prenuptial agreement gives Space Force half of the centers if the marriage fails or is not consummated.

* Due to popular demand, all future launch vehicles will be equipped with extra quantities of conical shape charges.  This will provide greater Hollywood level special effects during flight anomalies and emergency landing operations.  Michael Bay provides technical consulting to NASA’s management via Neuralink.

* Neuralink Astronauts land on the Moon and is broadcast to many citizens on Earth with Neuralink-Starlink-Twitter interfaces in their autonomous Teslas while they drive to their central telework centers. 

* Global warming determined to be an effect from microbes onboard meteors that activate upon arrival to Earth.  The microbes consume enormous amounts energy, which causes more carbon emissions, and then the increase in temperature.

* Uranus is downgraded from “a planet”.

* Congressional politicians from the Neuralink party increase NASAs budget to 100% GDP.

* After taking vitamin supplements derived from jellyfish, several Hollywood actors change their Neuralinked connected minds to decide to fly to the planet Mars.

* Superior beings from space (aka aliens) deliver abducted humans back to Earth.  The humans are startled by the global chaos as well as lack of human spaceflight exploration progress since the 1970s and ask to return to space.

* NASASpaceFlight Forum provides a Troll button next to the Like button.

* Movie of the year: Trolls 57 - Neuralink Unicorn Paradise

Uranus isn't going to be donwgraded from a planet at all by the International Astronomical Union. The similarity of Pluto to other planetary objects in the Kuiper Belt in being small was the reason why the word planet was redefined by the IAU in 2006 to exclude all dwarf plants, including Pluto.

South Africa could become the second former European colony in Africa or Asia (after India) to possess not just an orbital launch capability but also the ability to launch spacecraft to the moon, Mars, or any other terrestrial planet.

[SpaceArtifact]

I think by 2050 some serious discussions will have taken place, and hopefully a budget to follow, which will plan to see a moon base built and occupied by 2085.

At four billion per flight, Artemis or SLS, is too expensive to be viable for any type of long term solution. A new inexpensive reusable space ferry / cargo system will be developed in the 2060's by NASA to make moon trips safer and more frequent. The unfortunate mishap in 2047 mandates these measures. NASA again dreams of a trip to Mars and colonization, although, this will not happen until the early part of the next century.

[Skamp_X]

I been having high hopes of space travel of humanity sinds i was a teen, in the 90's,
but my expectations have ...somewhat decreased getting older.

Fusion power predicted around 2070.

Permanent base on the moon, 10-20 astronauts doing a 1 year shift.
Nuclear propulsion exiting testing fase in practical application in space (probes) , next up first human spacecraft, 20 years away
Bare bones rotating spacestation in LEO (2 habs spinning around a center point or along these lines)

New space telecscope that will dwarf james webb , like 50meter diameter , able to show exo planets in a couple of pixels,
and determine that some have atmosphere's that can handle bacterial or more complex life.
Another probe is on its way to a outer dwarf planet.

[Eric Hedman]

6) Astronomers should not be in unions.   

Let me guess.  They joined the union to get better working conditions.  They're tired of working at night.

[Eric Hedman]

Some recent videos from Lockheed Martin on their Space 2050 vision:

[eric z]

 The SLS-Heavy is in it's final pre-launch checks for a July 4th, 2050 launch. Consisting of 3 lengthened cores and six
8-segment SRBs, the countdown flow has been beset by fuel-seal leaks, but experts from Marshboe say they are on top of it. They will be flying a dummy payload on this flight, except for 109 university smallsats, since Congress did not authorize one in time.
 Press has been gathering at Disney World to observe the launch safely.

[Eric Hedman]

AIAA and Lockheed Martin are continuing their series on Space 2050 with an upcoming webinar on June 28th:

https://www.aiaa.org/events-learning/event/2023/06/28/default-calendar/aerospace-perspectives-series-space-2050-our-future-shaped-by-today-s-space-technology-advances?_hsmi=263274868&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-97uBaNCYvePUKVU7mOCDeZWxghGAGCx4_e1kxjiYlontc9W78Jo8ke7hwhOrBx80Jz8k0PHnoE246OCia-G0NbO5Ya1w

If you want more info on their vision for space in 2050, check it out.  It's free.

[spacenut]

If Starlink services get 100 million customers or more that is around $100 billion in profit.  If Musk put in his will that all profits from Starlink go into Mars colonization, then why not have a colony on Mars in 27 years.  It may not be a million people but maybe 100's or thousands working and expanding the colony. 

Other companies will develop reusable rockets if they want any of the space business.  This will open up space to all sorts of possibilities, large space stations, moon base or colony, and a Mars base or colony. 

I would be 97 in 2050.  I at least would like to see us land on Mars in my lifetime. 

[nicp]

Kessler syndrome.

[jstrotha0975]

China will be the world power on Earth and in space. The United States of America and Europe will have ceased to exist and become a Totalitarian Communist state with no interest in space exploration.

[Robotbeat]

There will be 1 billion Americans, and they will all take vacations on the Moon. Mars will be the 103rd state with a population of 100 million.

Hey, this is fun!