Poll

Which SHLV will successfully fly first?

SLS
65 (33.5%)
Starship/Super Heavy stack
129 (66.5%)

Total Members Voted: 194

Voting closed: 04/23/2020 02:38 am


Author Topic: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?  (Read 25465 times)

Offline TomH

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Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« on: 02/23/2020 01:38 am »
Which super heavy launch vehicle will successfully fly first, SLS Block I or the full Super Heavy/Starship stack?  For this poll, success means either to orbit or deep space. A Starship flight without the SH booster does not qualify, however on-orbit refueling is not a requirement. Since SLS is disposable, and to make the playing field a bit more level, landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll).

If SpaceX beats Boeing with a successful flight, how much (if any) affect will that have on SLS's future, both in terms of public perception as well as political ramifications? How important do you think it is to Elon that he beats Boeing and does Boeing even care? You may vote only once, however you are allowed to change your vote based on changing circumstances. Poll closes in 60 days.
« Last Edit: 02/23/2020 02:15 am by TomH »

Offline Hog

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #1 on: 02/23/2020 03:46 am »
Interesting question, the ability of either of them to be able to orbit humans or send them "towards" Luna is another. In the end its about people moving and the long term goal is Mars. "Moon first.....on the way to Mars and other places." If the government says "we want a national heavy lift rocket to carry on after the STS mission" then seeing buying blocks of 10 Core Stages makes huge sense. Economics of scale.  SLS may be the last nationally procured space heavy lifter. The "Space Industry" as a whole is hugely dynamic right now.  It's exciting to a bystander. SLS coming off of 39-B will be great. A "VISIBLE" national capability. I last saw a TV commercial that featured a Shuttle Orbiter representation in mid 2019.(8 years after the program was retired after 4 decades of STS/SSP service.(1971-2011 plus T&R services).  The Space Shuttle as a program represented American technological dominance.  Will Orion "carry the torch"?  I don't know how it will end up, but I'll no doubt enjoy the ride.

So Artemis-2 vs. crewed SH/SS?    In the end, Congress will get what it wants. If would be great if US spaceflight was limited by "technological challenges" rather than financial/political ones.  We'd have been buying Martian mined diamonds on the InterPLANETARYnet. years ago.
Paul

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #2 on: 02/23/2020 05:02 am »
I voted SLS.  If SLS does fly in April of 2021, I don't think there is enough time to get Starship and Super Heavy tested out and ready to fly as a stack by then.  If SLS gets delayed to later in 2021 then my vote changes.

Offline Rebel44

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #3 on: 02/23/2020 08:07 am »
IMO, if the first Spaceship high-altitude flight goes well, Superheavy + Starship will have a good chance at launching in the early 2021 - before SLS.

Offline c4fusion

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #4 on: 02/23/2020 08:14 am »
I will go bullish, very bullish and say that SpaceX will beat SLS by at least 6 months.  Why?  Because they will be building something that is suboptimized very, very quickly (at least by large rocket terms).  I would not be surprised that by October that there will be 5 starships and at least a couple of super heavies built.  The only hard part of the super heavies are the engines.  Once they nail the the Starship (which I think SN1 will still go boom), building the SuperHeavy is relatively trivial.

Offline ncb1397

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #5 on: 02/23/2020 08:17 am »
I like this competition. SLS = Saturn V, Starship = N1. Either way, USA wins ... unlike last time where the outcome was in doubt.



Is history about to repeat itself or is NASA losing this one?
« Last Edit: 02/23/2020 08:30 am by ncb1397 »

Offline nicp

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #6 on: 02/23/2020 08:54 am »
I voted SLS (despite disliking it and being a SpaceX amazing people).

I think Starship will fly before SLS but not the full Superheavy/Starship stack.

I expect difficulties revealed by Starship (not necessarily LOV) which will require several flights before the full stack can fly.
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Offline randomly

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #7 on: 02/23/2020 09:17 am »
Boeing is working under a cost plus contract. As historically seen their motivation is to drag the process out as long as possible without getting it cancelled. Unless other factors come in to play such as getting an EUS contract there is no urgency on their part to complete SLS. Until Shelby is out of office I don't think there is any danger about SLS funding stopping. I think it likely the SLS launch will get delayed again past april 2021.

 Elon on the other hand is going flat out 24 hours a day and building infrastructure for very rapid production of Starships. I expect quite a few starships constructed before SLS flies, there will be some failures in testing, but I'm optimistically thinking they may reach orbit first anyway.

Online daedalus1

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #8 on: 02/23/2020 09:34 am »
Am I correct that the starship (upper stage) with all 6/7? engines installed doesn't have enough thrust to lift off from the ground fully fueled, and therefore cannot achieve orbit on its own.
It would have to do this with the heavy first stage.

Offline tyrred

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #9 on: 02/23/2020 09:54 am »
Am I correct that the starship (upper stage) with all 6/7? engines installed doesn't have enough thrust to lift off from the ground fully fueled, and therefore cannot achieve orbit on its own.
It would have to do this with the heavy first stage.

The two aren't mutually exclusive.  TWR >1 =/= SSTO.

That being said, Starship is not designed to be SSTO from Earth, but is designed to be SSTO from Mars.  It is designed to require Superheavy booster to achieve Earth orbit, required components all reusable.

Contrast to SLS, which will not be SSTO from anywhere, has no component designed to lift off from Mars, and solid boosters to achieve Earth orbit, required components all expendable.

The expendable camp is experiencing considerably embarrassing setbacks, considering it's heritage.  Meanwhile, the reusable camp is experiencing exciting setbacks, considering it's rapidity.

I voted for more exciting than embarrassing.
« Last Edit: 02/23/2020 09:56 am by tyrred »

Online daedalus1

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #10 on: 02/23/2020 10:37 am »
Am I correct that the starship (upper stage) with all 6/7? engines installed doesn't have enough thrust to lift off from the ground fully fueled, and therefore cannot achieve orbit on its own.
It would have to do this with the heavy first stage.

The two aren't mutually exclusive.  TWR >1 =/= SSTO.

That being said, Starship is not designed to be SSTO from Earth, but is designed to be SSTO from Mars.  It is designed to require Superheavy booster to achieve Earth orbit, required components all reusable.

Contrast to SLS, which will not be SSTO from anywhere, has no component designed to lift off from Mars, and solid boosters to achieve Earth orbit, required components all expendable.

The expendable camp is experiencing considerably embarrassing setbacks, considering it's heritage.  Meanwhile, the reusable camp is experiencing exciting setbacks, considering it's rapidity.

I voted for more exciting than embarrassing.

So my point is that it requires the whole stack to reach orbit, therefore the timescale for the purpose of this poll is much longer.
I have not seen any construction of the super heavy 1st stage yet.

Offline spacenut

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #11 on: 02/23/2020 01:17 pm »
From what I gather, Superheavy first stage is not supposed to be hard.  It's software is based on the f9 booster, so it should be easier to get up and running.  Starship on the other hand is supposed to be hard, since the whole stage is to come back through the atmosphere and land.  If they get the Starship bugs out this year, Superheavy should be fine for launching Starship when it is built. 

I voted Starship/Superheavy.  I feel like SLS will be delayed beyond April 2021, as everything associated with SLS has been delayed continuously. 

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #12 on: 02/23/2020 01:34 pm »
I'm hoping both fly ASAP. However I expect Starship to go through 1 or 2 RUDs before reaching orbit which may delay it just a bit more than the inevitable delay in SLS.

SLSs days are numbered either way and I pretty much wish that it's replaced by an 8.4 m RSHLV with clusters of BE4 engines underneath it, built with the same tooling.
"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled." R.P.Feynman

Offline pochimax

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #13 on: 02/23/2020 02:34 pm »
Votes for SLS. Starship is years away.

Offline meberbs

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #14 on: 02/23/2020 05:06 pm »
I voted SLS (despite disliking it and being a SpaceX amazing people).

I think Starship will fly before SLS but not the full Superheavy/Starship stack.

I expect difficulties revealed by Starship (not necessarily LOV) which will require several flights before the full stack can fly.
Agree about difficulties and multiple flights, however, SN1 has been largely built in 2 months, and should be basically done in 3, while additional infrastructure to speed future builds has been built. Up through SN4 and a Super Heavy should reasonably be built by the end of the year.

On the other hand, SLS is at best April 2021, realistically in the summer, and delays to late 2021 would not be that surprising.

If things go average, with Starship failures and even LOV, Starship will be first by a comfortable margin, if things go well it will be no contest.

Offline su27k

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #15 on: 02/24/2020 02:14 am »
I last saw a TV commercial that featured a Shuttle Orbiter representation in mid 2019.(8 years after the program was retired after 4 decades of STS/SSP service.(1971-2011 plus T&R services).  The Space Shuttle as a program represented American technological dominance.  Will Orion "carry the torch"?  I don't know how it will end up, but I'll no doubt enjoy the ride.

This may be off topic, but in my mind Starship will be the perfect replacement of Shuttle as symbol of American technological dominance, SLS/Orion doesn't even come close to do this. In fact I would go as far as to say SLS/Orion is a symbol of American losing its technological dominance, given its lack of breakthrough in terms of design, technology and performance.

Starship is a true and better Shuttle replacement: inline configuration, all liquid propulsion, separation of cargo and crew, fully reusable, 4 times the payload to LEO, and it can go beyond LEO. You can't come up with a better Shuttle 2.0 than this if you go back in time and ask Max Faget himself.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #16 on: 02/24/2020 02:21 am »
I think Starship will reach suborbit before SLS, but I think SLS and Orion will reach orbit before Starship.
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Online high road

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #17 on: 02/24/2020 09:29 am »
I voted SLS (despite disliking it and being a SpaceX amazing people).

I think Starship will fly before SLS but not the full Superheavy/Starship stack.

I expect difficulties revealed by Starship (not necessarily LOV) which will require several flights before the full stack can fly.

Same here.

Offline Hauerg

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #18 on: 02/24/2020 09:59 am »
What does "fly" mean?

Reach orbit?

Reach orbit AND land the capsule vs both stages?


Offline indaco1

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Re: Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?
« Reply #19 on: 02/24/2020 12:58 pm »
Technically speaking hopper already flew but:

For this poll, success means either to orbit or deep space.
« Last Edit: 02/24/2020 01:01 pm by indaco1 »
Non-native English speaker and non-expert, be patient.

Tags: Artemis 1 SLS falcon 
 

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