Author Topic: SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM1 : March 2, 2019 : DISCUSSION  (Read 549116 times)

Offline deruch

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How many docking/undocking approaches and events do people think this mission will have?  How many did the first Dragon 1 COTS mission that visited ISS have?
« Last Edit: 03/07/2015 02:30 am by deruch »
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Offline Prober

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Oh, can't we start the party thread now just to keep this discussion thread clean for the next two years?

My party thread title suggestion: "The Final Score- Dragon 2: SPX-DM1"

nah, "The Final Countdown- Dragon 2: SPX-DM1" and I know the proper 1980's music to go along with it :)
2017 - Everything Old is New Again.
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Offline dror

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Will these flights take any real cargo on them? To assist the resupply efforts, I mean.
Will the first crew demo flight assist in crew rotation ? (This question may not fit in this thread )
Space is hard immensely complex and high risk !

Offline nlec

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Will the first crew demo flight assist in crew rotation ? (This question may not fit in this thread )
I don't think this will be done since it will require the incoming crew to bring his/her custom Soyuz seat liner for the return home on Soyuz, as in the event of lifeboat use.

Offline woods170

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Careful there... If the best this thread has to offer is bets for beer, Chris may reconsider his decision to start this thread and he could lock it for the next 18 months.

Me being smart again. One of the rules of the bet is the thread not becoming locked, for any reason. The minute the thread is locked, the bet is off. That was on the notion that starting a thread some 20 months before the flight, and subsequently locking it a good bit of that time would be somewhat silly. I don't see Chris doing that.

Offline Sotar

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How many approaches will be required of Dragon V2 compared to CST-100?  Will they have identical validation requirements for docking with ISS or will one require more validation?   

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Offline Roy_H

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Will these flights take any real cargo on them? To assist the resupply efforts, I mean.
Will the first crew demo flight assist in crew rotation ? (This question may not fit in this thread )

"Real cargo" as in experiments or critical equipment, doubtful, general supplies I would think yes. Why not when the cost of the cargo is small.

It makes good sense to me that the first flight(s) be unmanned, why risk a crew to test if you don't have to. But what doesn't make sense to me is the crewed demo. I mean what can be accomplished by the crew demo that can't be done on the unmanned version? Makes more sense to me to make the first crewed flight a fully operational crew rotation flight.
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Offline cscott

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But what doesn't make sense to me is the crewed demo. I mean what can be accomplished by the crew demo that can't be done on the unmanned version?

It won't do an actual crew rotation to lessen logistic impacts of a failure (since it's a test flight, after all).  No pressure to launch on time, no pressure to reach the station once launched, no pressure to ensure docking is successful once station is reached.  Can wave off the demo at any point without impact to station logistics.

But it *will* demonstrate human ops and assess HCI issues.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2015 08:00 pm by cscott »

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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It makes good sense to me that the first flight(s) be unmanned, why risk a crew to test if you don't have to. But what doesn't make sense to me is the crewed demo. I mean what can be accomplished by the crew demo that can't be done on the unmanned version? Makes more sense to me to make the first crewed flight a fully operational crew rotation flight.

25% of the time when things go wrong when it comes to complex machinery, it's the fault of the machine. Once you've got that down pat, you need to suss out the remaining 75% fail likelihood - the nut(ter) that holds the wheel/stick/sits in the chair and waits for the machine to do all the difficult work. A machine can tell you that everything's working as it should, but it can't tell you if a seat is lumbar-crushingly inadequate or if a certain critical button is just out of reach when the rest of the space is packed with moving astronauts. How humans react to the spacecraft is just as important as knowing how the spacecraft works; best to go in increments.
« Last Edit: 03/09/2015 07:21 pm by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Offline Harold KSC

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NASA Selects Astronauts for First U.S. Commercial Space Flights

 

July has always been a big month for America’s space program.  Next week, on July 14, New Horizons will make the closest approach ever to Pluto, and the United States will become the first nation to visit this dwarf planet in the outer reaches of our solar system.  It was on July 20, 1969 that Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin made their giant leap for humankind.  It was on July 30, 1971 that the lunar rover was driven on the surface of the Moon for the very first time. It was on July 4, 1997 that Pathfinder arrived on Mars.  Furthermore, it was on July 14, 1965 – 50 years ago next week – that Mariner 4 flew by and sent us the very close-up first pictures of Mars.

 

Today, a half century after we received those first pictures of the Red Planet, we’re able to make a significant announcement that will further our nation’s Journey to Mars.

 

I am pleased to announce that four American space pioneers have been selected to be the first astronauts to train to fly to space on commercial crew carriers, all part of our ambitious plan to return space launches to U.S. soil, create good-paying American jobs and advance our goal of sending humans farther into the solar system than ever before.  These distinguished, veteran astronauts are blazing a new trail, a trail that will one day land them in the history books and Americans on the surface of Mars.  (Click on each astronaut’s name to learn more about him or her!):

 

·        Robert Behnken

·        Sunita Williams

·        Eric Boe

·        Douglas Hurley

 

For as long as I’ve been Administrator, President Obama has made it very clear that returning the launches of American astronauts to American soil is a top priority – and he has persistently supported this initiative in his budget requests to Congress.  Had we received everything he asked for, we’d be preparing to send these astronauts to space on commercial carriers as soon as this year.  As it stands, we’re currently working toward launching in 2017, and today’s announcement allows our astronauts to begin training for these flights starting now.

 

We are on a Journey to Mars, and in order to meet our goals for sending American astronauts to the Red Planet in the 2030s we need to be able to focus both on deep space and the groundbreaking work being done on the International Space Station (ISS).

 

Our commercial crew initiative makes these parallel endeavors possible.  By working with American companies to get our astronauts to the ISS, NASA is able to focus on game-changing technologies, the Orion spacecraft and the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket that are geared toward getting astronauts to deep space.

 

Furthermore, there are real economic benefits to bolstering America’s emerging commercial space market.  We have over 350 American companies working across 36 states on our commercial crew initiative.  Every dollar we invest on commercial crew is a dollar we invest in ourselves, rather than in the Russian economy.

 

Our plans to return launches to American soil also make fiscal sense. It currently costs $76 million per astronaut to fly on a Russian spacecraft.  On an American-owned spacecraft, the average cost will be $58 million per astronaut.  What’s more, each mission will carry four crewmembers instead of three, along with 100 kg of materials to support the important science and research we conduct on the ISS.

 

For these reasons, our commercial crew program is a worthy successor to the incredible 30-year run of the Space Shuttle Program.  The decision that President Bush made in 2004 to retire the Space Shuttle was not an easy decision, but it was the right decision.  As you’ll recall, it was the recommendation of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, and endorsed by many people in the space community – including yours truly.

 

I cannot think of a better way to continue our celebration of independence this July than to mark this milestone as we look to reassert our space travel independence and end our sole reliance on Russia to get American astronauts to the International Space Station.

 

***

 

I also want to take this opportunity to offer a special word of congratulations to astronaut candidates from the Class of 2013, who are transitioning into flight-ready status.  These eight outstanding Americans – four of them women, four of them men -- were selected from a pool of more than 6,300 applicants – our second largest pool of applicants, ever.

 

The enthusiasm for NASA’s astronaut program reminds us that journeying to space continues to be the dream of Americans everywhere.  So my message to members of our incredible NASA Family, is that you must never lose sight of the fact that by your work every day, you inspire today’s students to become tomorrow’s leaders, scientists, engineers and astronauts.

 

You can click on each astronaut’s name to learn more about our newest astronauts:

 

·        Josh Cassada

·        Victor Glover

·        Tyler "Nick" Hague

·        Christina Hammock

·        Nicole Mann

·        Anne McClain

·        Jessica Meir

·        Andrew Morgan

Offline Joffan

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Offline Hg

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I wonder if NASA will insist that IDA3 has arrived at the ISS and properly installed, so that any visiting commercial vehicle has a backup docking port for attachment, before this SpX-DM1 flight is allowed to launch.  As this flight (or Boeing's first uncrewed test flight) will be the first usage of the new docking standard in space, they may be wary. 
I believe I've heard that the IDA3 is penciled in for launch on SpaceX flight CRS-12, and that the best guess for CRS-12 is 'late 2017'.  After that, IDA3 has to be manually mounted to its PMA by EVAing astronauts.  Probably a new set of astronauts will need to be trained in this EVA before then.   If all this is true, doesn't it suggest that this mission is more likely to launch around December 2017, and the rest of the Commercial Crew Program will follow in 2018? 

I hope NASA will allow SpaceX and Boeing to start flights while only IDA2 is operational.

Offline mn

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I wonder if NASA will insist that IDA3 has arrived at the ISS and properly installed, so that any visiting commercial vehicle has a backup docking port for attachment, before this SpX-DM1 flight is allowed to launch.  As this flight (or Boeing's first uncrewed test flight) will be the first usage of the new docking standard in space, they may be wary. 
I believe I've heard that the IDA3 is penciled in for launch on SpaceX flight CRS-12, and that the best guess for CRS-12 is 'late 2017'.  After that, IDA3 has to be manually mounted to its PMA by EVAing astronauts.  Probably a new set of astronauts will need to be trained in this EVA before then.   If all this is true, doesn't it suggest that this mission is more likely to launch around December 2017, and the rest of the Commercial Crew Program will follow in 2018? 

I hope NASA will allow SpaceX and Boeing to start flights while only IDA2 is operational.

I would suppose that if there is a problem with the docking they could return to earth, I can't imagine they would launch a vehicle that can't return safely if there is a docking problem.

Online Comga

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I wonder if NASA will insist that IDA3 has arrived at the ISS and properly installed, so that any visiting commercial vehicle has a backup docking port for attachment, before this SpX-DM1 flight is allowed to launch.  As this flight (or Boeing's first uncrewed test flight) will be the first usage of the new docking standard in space, they may be wary. 
I believe I've heard that the IDA3 is penciled in for launch on SpaceX flight CRS-12, and that the best guess for CRS-12 is 'late 2017'.  After that, IDA3 has to be manually mounted to its PMA by EVAing astronauts.  Probably a new set of astronauts will need to be trained in this EVA before then.   If all this is true, doesn't it suggest that this mission is more likely to launch around December 2017, and the rest of the Commercial Crew Program will follow in 2018? 

I hope NASA will allow SpaceX and Boeing to start flights while only IDA2 is operational.

Over in the L2 External Payloads threads we see that SpX-12 has only Space Debris Sensor (SDS) -DRAGONS scheduled for the trunk.  This has an active area of 1 sq meter, so it's probably one FRAM.  SpX-13 has two external payloads, so it could probably accommodate SDS if it were to be bumped by IDA-3. 

We also see that SpX-11 is anticipated to be in late winter of 2017, so SpX-12 might fly around the middle of 2017, which would be before Commercial Crew.  However, I have no idea if IDA-3 can be ready by then.

It could also go the other way, with the external payloads from SpX-13 accelerated to SpX-12 to make room on SpX-13 for IDA-3.  That would provide more time to ready IDA-3 and possibly still be in place for Commercial Crew.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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IDA-3 is flying on SpX-14. See page 14 of this pdf.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/5-Status_of_ISS.pdf
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Online Comga

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IDA-3 is flying on SpX-14. See page 14 of this pdf.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/5-Status_of_ISS.pdf

This is all well and good, but much of the information is out of date.
The FPIP page on slide 10 is dated October 20, 2015.  L2 has one from February, and that is already out of date.
This one has SpX-11 in August of 2016, which is probably when SpX-9 will launch.
SpX-12 is probably flying when SpX-14 was scheduled as of Nov 4, 2014, the date of this presentation. SpX-12 will probably launch mid year 2017.
If they want to "Establish 2 docking ports and 2 berthing ports on ISS USOS to support crew and cargo vehicles" as this states, they will want to move IDA-3 ahead in the delayed SpaceX CRS schedule, which can be accommodated.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline AnalogMan

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IDA-3 is flying on SpX-14. See page 14 of this pdf.

http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/5-Status_of_ISS.pdf

This is all well and good, but much of the information is out of date.
The FPIP page on slide 10 is dated October 20, 2015.  L2 has one from February, and that is already out of date.
This one has SpX-11 in August of 2016, which is probably when SpX-9 will launch.
SpX-12 is probably flying when SpX-14 was scheduled as of Nov 4, 2014, the date of this presentation. SpX-12 will probably launch mid year 2017.
If they want to "Establish 2 docking ports and 2 berthing ports on ISS USOS to support crew and cargo vehicles" as this states, they will want to move IDA-3 ahead in the delayed SpaceX CRS schedule, which can be accommodated.

Latest info I have seen is the attached chart, which was presented 3 March 2016.  However, it may not help much in deciding which SpaceX flight it launches on (other than no earlier than SpX-14).

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Will these flights take any real cargo on them?

I would be curious to see if SpaceX could use DM-1 for one of the CRS flights, kill two birds with one stone. Anyway SpaceX can charge for both the DM-1 Milestone and a CRS flight on one mission?

Offline the_other_Doug

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Will these flights take any real cargo on them?

I would be curious to see if SpaceX could use DM-1 for one of the CRS flights, kill two birds with one stone. Anyway SpaceX can charge for both the DM-1 Milestone and a CRS flight on one mission?

Dragon-2 cannot be berthed, it must dock at one of the smaller docking ports (yet to have their IDA docking adapters to be installed).  This makes Dragon 2 unsuitable for pressurized cargo delivery.  For example, you can't get anything rack-sized through the docking port; that requires using one of the berthing ports.

Also, a good deal of the internal volume of Dragon 2 is taken up with crew stations, control panels, etc.  Again, this makes it less than ideal as a cargo craft.

It's not that Dragon 2 could never be pressed into service as a cargo craft, but it's not designed for the task, and would not do it as well as the less-expensive cargo Dragon.

That said, if DM1 docks unmanned to ISS as planned, I would expect it to contain some luxury cargo, like fresh fruit and personal items for the crew.  I just don't think they'll try to pack it with all the upmass that a CRS flight would normally carry.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Offline Ronsmytheiii

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Dragon-2 cannot be berthed, it must dock at one of the smaller docking ports (yet to have their IDA docking adapters to be installed).  This makes Dragon 2 unsuitable for pressurized cargo delivery.  For example, you can't get anything rack-sized through the docking port; that requires using one of the berthing ports.

SpaceX offered Dragon 2 as an option for CRS-2, berthing requires valuable crew time and most flights dont need the full hatch size (ie anything going on Cygnus as it doesnt use a full PCBM) Without crew you dont need seats, displays ect.

Quote
SpaceX – yet to release a statement on the CRS2 award – will utilize its Dragon spacecraft, in two configurations, during CRS2, with both the berthed Dragon spacecraft – as currently being employed during CRS1 – and the upgraded Dragon 2, which can dock directly with the ISS.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/01/nasa-awards-crs2-spacex-orbital-atk-sierra-nevada/
« Last Edit: 04/10/2016 04:37 pm by Ronsmytheiii »

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