North Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all.
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again. ...
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 07/05/2022 05:02 pmNorth Korea isn't developing a human space capsule, which also would require a rocket much larger than they have to launch it.I don't think Cuba has a space launch program at all. In September 2008, Roscosmos officials were reported as saying that they would help cooperate with Cuba to implement a joint space program, including setting up a space center in Cuba, but the proposed space center in Cuba didn't materialize, so maybe the Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces and CITMA (the Cuban science/technology/environment ministry) have secretly partnered with the South African aerospace industry to work on a multistage rocket to be jointly built by South Africa and Cuba. Venezuela, Cuba's top ally in Latin America, has built satellites launched atop Chinese rockets, and it would not be surprised if Cuba and South Africa are relying on help from China's space agency to help Cuba to lay the foundations for development for a purely Cuban-made SLV similar in height to North Korea's Paektusan-2 (Unha) and Iraq's Al-Abid (the latter which only got as far as a suborbital launch before the program was canceled due to the repercussions of Operation Desert Storm).The Paektusan-2 (Unha) that concocted North Korea's first successful space launch in 2012 is about the same height as the Vostok-K that lofted Yuri Gagarin into orbit, so North Korea would need to mate the airframe of the Hwasong-15/17 with the second and third stages of the Paektusan-2 to create an SLV with enough thrust to loft a man into space, and given that North Korea's spacecraft have historically been constructed in secret notwithstanding anecdotal evidence by defected North Korean missile/rocket engineers, the DPRK could use a manned spaceflight for propaganda purposes to further bash the US for dismissing any North Korean space launch as merely utilizing ICBM tech. Link:https://www.wired.com/2008/09/a-cuban-space-p/https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_Cuba_To_Implement_Joint_Space_Programs_999.html
I know it may be a bit early to speculate on what 2023 will hold for spaceflight worldwide, but I thought it may be about time for another predictions thread again. Predictions for spaceflight 2023:- Blue Origin's New Glenn mega SLV makes first launch- Artemis 2 mission slightly moved forward to H2 2023 assuming that the Artemis 1 mission unexpectedly will accomplish some objectives otherwise earmarked for Artemis 2- NASA decides to contract future Starliner crewed missions, but instead use the Vulcan rocket for those missions given that the Vulcan rocket's diameter is big enough to accommodate the entire CST-100 spacecraft- South Africa revives the RSA program (based on Israel's Shavit)- Cuba carries out its first orbital launch using a rocket using retired FROG-7 missiles and technology from South African SLV projects on July 26, 2023, the 70th anniversary of Fidel Castro's assault on the Moncada Barracks in Santiago de Cuba- Blue Origin and SpaceX start design work on a 360 mega SLV with a nuclear-powered upper stage to allow nuclear-powered spacecraft to reach the gas giants and the Kuiper belt- North Korea launches its first man into space aboard homegrown Shenzhou-like spacecraft carried atop a Paektusan-2 (Unha) rocket- South Korea carries out four Nuri launches- Roscosmos orders the incomplete second Buran space shuttle to completed and used to launch into orbit space trawlers that can retrieve and deorbit derelict Brezhnev-era military satellites to reduce Russian-made space junk in the face of criticism for its ASAT test against the Cosmos 1408 satellite- China greenlights development of a variant of the CSSHQ spaceplane to be used to spy on US bases in Japan and Guam
So my favourite prediction again.During a refueling test of Starship, both vehicles will explode, generating a cloud of more than 150 t of debris in LEO and triggering the Kessler syndrome. The resulting chain reaction will destroy all the assets in LEO, including the ISS and the Chinese space station.All activities in LEO will be suspended for next twenty years and access to other orbits will be severely limited. An international board will be convened to get rid of what will remain nicknamed as the " Elon cloud ".
I'm also predicting the following with regard to spaceflight in 2023:- Blue Origin signs a joint agreement with Energy Fuels and Cameco to provide uranium fuel for nuclear-powered spacecraft to be potentially launched by the forthcoming New Glenn rocket for interplanetary and interstellar missions-
In light of Northrop Grumman signing a contract with Firefly to create a new version of the Antares rocket, but also the upcoming SLS maiden launch and paucity of remaining Delta IV Heavy and Proton launches, I wanted to make additional predictions regarding spaceflight in 2023:- Last Delta IV Heavy launch (involving the NROL-70 satellite) is pushed forward to Q3 or Q4 2023 by the NRO to free up additional funds for Atlas V and Falcon 9 launches on NRO launch manifest
Predictions for spaceflight 2023SLS flies at least twice
Quote from: scienceguy on 09/05/2022 10:28 pmPredictions for spaceflight 2023SLS flies at least twiceHuhhh, you do know that SLS only flies on Artemis missions? Artemis 1 in october or early 2023, then Artemis 2 no earlier than 2024. So I don't see how it could fly twice in 2023. Boggles my mind that if you're interested in spaceflight you wouldn't know that by now...
So I have an idea, why not set up the prediction thread of each year until, say, 2030 all at once, in this way users are able to do more long term, far fetched prediction as well!