SpaceX Falcon 9 / Dragon 2 : SpX-DM1 : March 2, 2019 : DISCUSSION

[the_other_Doug]

Dragon-2 cannot be berthed, it must dock at one of the smaller docking ports (yet to have their IDA docking adapters to be installed).  This makes Dragon 2 unsuitable for pressurized cargo delivery.  For example, you can't get anything rack-sized through the docking port; that requires using one of the berthing ports.

SpaceX offered Dragon 2 as an option for CRS-2, berthing requires valuable crew time and most flights dont need the full hatch size (ie anything going on Cygnus as it doesnt use a full PCBM) Without crew you dont need seats, displays ect.

SpaceX – yet to release a statement on the CRS2 award – will utilize its Dragon spacecraft, in two configurations, during CRS2, with both the berthed Dragon spacecraft – as currently being employed during CRS1 – and the upgraded Dragon 2, which can dock directly with the ISS.

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2016/01/nasa-awards-crs2-spacex-orbital-atk-sierra-nevada/

Oh, sure.  But that's for CRS-2, and the original question was whether or not SPX-DM1 could double as a full CRS flight under the current CRS contract.  The CRS-2 cargo flights that might use a Dragon 2 would likely be sized in terms of upmass for the particular amount that a Dragon 2 would normally be able to carry -- which I believe would be less than that for a cargo Dragon.  I mean, a Dragon 2 carries the super Dracos and their fuel, the ECLSS, and (unless they are unshipped) the crew couches and control panels.  The mass of the extra Dragon 2 systems that the cargo Dragon doesn't carry isn't insignificant, and would need to come out of the cargo upmass.  The internal volume is a bit less in the Dragon 2, as well, IIRC.

And I can't see SpaceX modifying the first Dragon 2 to fly to the extent of removing items such as the crew couches, etc., that they will ultimately fly crew with.  It's called test-as-you-fly, fly-as-you-test.  An uncrewed cargo version of Dragon 2 will surely come as a set of modifications that will occur after Dragon 2 is fully qualified for crewed flight --which, after all, is what DM1 is all about, right?

I can, though, see a very attractive scenario in which SpaceX uses cargo Dragon 2 uncrewed to deliver upmass, on a flight without any critical downmass requirements, and then test propulsive landing from orbit with such a craft.  They have to test it uncrewed at some point before they try it with a crew on board anyway; this would seem the perfect type of mission profile with which to test it.

[Robotbeat]

Will these flights take any real cargo on them?

I would be curious to see if SpaceX could use DM-1 for one of the CRS flights, kill two birds with one stone. Anyway SpaceX can charge for both the DM-1 Milestone and a CRS flight on one mission?

Dragon-2 cannot be berthed, it must dock at one of the smaller docking ports (yet to have their IDA docking adapters to be installed).  This makes Dragon 2 unsuitable for pressurized cargo delivery....

False. Progress also only docks, and is certainly suitable for pressurized cargo delivery. Cygnus's door is actually much, much smaller than the full CBM, but that doesn't seem to be a show-stopper, either.

Yes, there is some cargo that you'd want the larger port for, but it is completely false to say it's unsuited for pressurized cargo delivery. I seem to recall that some some of the later CRS 2 missions for SpaceX may even dock, not berth.

[CameronD]

With the Boeing crew launch now pushed out to 2018 according to Chris's article, does anyone know what's happening in the SpaceX camp?

Amongst all of the recent Dragon 1 launches and mission successes, are they still on schedule?? 

[Robotbeat]

With the Boeing crew launch now pushed out to 2018 according to Chris's article, does anyone know what's happening in the SpaceX camp?

Amongst all of the recent Dragon 1 launches and mission successes, are they still on schedule??

Yes. Doesn't mean they won't slip later, but current word is they're still on schedule.

[woods170]

With the Boeing crew launch now pushed out to 2018 according to Chris's article, does anyone know what's happening in the SpaceX camp?

Amongst all of the recent Dragon 1 launches and mission successes, are they still on schedule??

Yes. Doesn't mean they won't slip later, but current word is they're still on schedule.

SpaceX is not quite on schedule. They are still on track for a first unmanned launch of Dragon 2 in 2017, but that was originally scheduled for late THIS year. So that already slipped. The following in-flight abort subsequently slipped as well (as it uses the spacecraft from the unmanned flight). And the first manned flight slipped at least 8 months to the end of 2017. It's all in the most recent FPIP.
So yeah, for the moment SpaceX is still targeting a first manned flight in 2017, whereas Boeing has already slipped into 2018.
But, the first manned mission of Dragon 2 is now scheduled near the very end of 2017 and it is almost a given, IMO, that it will slip into 2018 as well.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

But, the first manned mission of Dragon 2 is now scheduled near the very end of 2017 and it is almost a given, IMO, that it will slip into 2018 as well.

You may well be correct. In part it'll depend on whether SpaceX built much contigency in when they announced the slip to late 2017. Given their past (poor) record on milestone dates and the size of the slip I'm really hoping they've learnt from experience and given themselves a more realistic schedule to allow for further unforeseen issues.

I suspect the now declared Boeing delays will also provide even more motivation to keep to the current schedule.

[eweilow]

But, the first manned mission of Dragon 2 is now scheduled near the very end of 2017 and it is almost a given, IMO, that it will slip into 2018 as well.

You may well be correct. In part it'll depend on whether SpaceX built much contigency in when they announced the slip to late 2017. Given their past (poor) record on milestone dates and the size of the slip I'm really hoping they've learnt from experience and given themselves a more realistic schedule to allow for further unforeseen issues.

I suspect the now declared Boeing delays will also provide even more motivation to keep to the current schedule.

One should also factor in the fact that they intend to launch a Red Dragon to Mars in the first half of 2018 as well which really does require having a working vehicle at that point so there's more at stake for SpaceX than just the manned missions

[Jet Black]

SpaceX is not quite on schedule. They are still on track for a first unmanned launch of Dragon 2 in 2017, but that was originally scheduled for late THIS year. So that already slipped. The following in-flight abort subsequently slipped as well (as it uses the spacecraft from the unmanned flight). And the first manned flight slipped at least 8 months to the end of 2017. It's all in the most recent FPIP.

The question is the reason for that slip. I heard that some of the slip at least is down to NASA delaying the milestones and not allowing SpaceX do do the work ahead of time.

[TrueBlueWitt]

But, the first manned mission of Dragon 2 is now scheduled near the very end of 2017 and it is almost a given, IMO, that it will slip into 2018 as well.

You may well be correct. In part it'll depend on whether SpaceX built much contigency in when they announced the slip to late 2017. Given their past (poor) record on milestone dates and the size of the slip I'm really hoping they've learnt from experience and given themselves a more realistic schedule to allow for further unforeseen issues.

I suspect the now declared Boeing delays will also provide even more motivation to keep to the current schedule.

One should also factor in the fact that they intend to launch a Red Dragon to Mars in the first half of 2018 as well which really does require having a working vehicle at that point so there's more at stake for SpaceX than just the manned missions

Does not require validation of life support, onboard controls, or the flight suits.  That should help.

[NX-0]

"Oh but Chris this is so far away!"  Heh - it's just going to be THAT historic I want to start a thread for it now
<snip>
Keep the thread specific to this mission. We have Dragon 2, CCtCAP threads and such in the general sections.

Although the dates have changed, we are much closer now than when this thread was originally started. While there is still a lot on the manifest between now and when this launches, I thought I'd ask if there were any updates for this, including hardware and whether or not this will fly on a flight-proven booster.

[deruch]

whether or not this will fly on a flight-proven booster.

Assuming that SpaceX sticks to the current schedule, it won't be using a flight-proven booster (and probably not even if they slip).  In the CRS-10 preflight briefing, NASA's Deputy Manager ISS Program, Dan Hartman, addressed NASA's future plans for flying on reused boosters: 

As far as the booster, we've just started those discussions.  We've got some teams off generating how we'll even go about requesting information from SpaceX.  Laying out our plan.  I imagine we'll have some sort of preliminary review on that in the April/May time period.   I think planning-wise, it may not happen this year.  But shortly thereafter.

I am assuming that when NASA approves using preflown boosters, it will happen first on cargo flights before eventually being accepted for manned missions.  So, even if DM-1 slips into next year when "it may happen", I don't think they would consider it yet for crew missions.  And, even though this mission is an unmanned one, the whole point is that they are doing everything just like they will for DM-2 and eventual operational missions.

[wannamoonbase]

This was likely priced with a new booster.  No reason for them to reuse on this flight.  They'll make money on it regardless.

If they have used boosters to fly they can find commercial customers.

[AncientU]

This was likely priced with a new booster.  No reason for them to reuse on this flight.  They'll make money on it regardless.

If they have used boosters to fly they can find commercial customers.

Orbital has switched twice in the course of COTS, and SpaceX has changed block numbers.  May take some gatting used to, but this is no different.

[Chris Bergin]

A Long term L2 schedule this week has DM-1 as March 9, 2018. Obviously very fluid with it being so far away.

[woods170]

A Long term L2 schedule this week has DM-1 as March 9, 2018. Obviously very fluid with it being so far away.

Quite. Particularly given that this was not some minor 1-month slip, but a major 4-month one.

[ChrisGebhardt]

CCP update for media here at Kennedy.

Kathy Leuders here with us.

It's a media Q&A

[ChrisGebhardt]

Kathy: Exciting time.  We have a tone of hardware.  Had quarterlies w/ SpaceX and Boeing.  3 Service Modules being put together; 1 almost ready to go to White Sands for testing.

SpaceX as Demo 1 & 2 vehicles.  Hardware for PCM (Post Cert Missions) being built up.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Kathy: Stepping through final stages to get ready to fly.  But tough time because we've got to step through some tough integrated tests. Vehicles need to be rung out and test schemes to make sure the crafts will safely fly out crews.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Kathy: More data as SpaceX and Boeing make progress.  Both companies should be happy with progress.

[ChrisGebhardt]

Q from Marcia Dunn: Timelines for uncrewed and crewed?

Kathy: Contracts state end of 2017 for uncrewed for SpaceX and late-2nd quarter '18 for crewed.  Lots of work left on this.  Will work over next few months to finalize schedule.

For Boeing, May for uncrewed and August for crew.