Total Members Voted: 149
Voting closed: 01/01/2017 01:29 am
- For most of the year (i.e. through the end of July) there is considerable disagreement about whether FH will fly before year end.
Apparently we have become less optimistic in a year's time, not more as one might suspect, given the progress at the launch pad
it will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.
In fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago. 186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully.
Quote from: watermod on 12/24/2016 02:04 amit will become obsolete and be scrapped before it is ever taken to a launch pad.After all that's what happened to Falcon 5, right? That story is quite relevant. Because SpaceX didn't choose Falcon 9 over Falcon 5 on its own. SpaceX needed to be pushed into it....
Quote from: Comga on 12/24/2016 12:17 amIn fact, there was a poll on FH one year ago. 186 out of 211 people thought it would not only launch in 2015 but do so successfully. The 2015 poll took place 2 years ago, not 1 year ago. 1 year ago and everyone would already have known that the FH didn't launch in 2015.(snip)
If FH doesn't fly in 2017 then Red Dragon 2018 isn't going to happen either; it's launch window is April to May (Wikipedia). My vote: Yes.
If SpaceX is at all serious about falcon heavy then it has to fly before development stops on the falcon 9, in order to validate the falcon 9 design that will form part of it. For the heavy to fly often it needs reuse to work well, otherwise it is too expensive, unless the military thinks it is worth supporting....
Interestingly, now that the back to launch is out of the way SpaceX's Launch manifest has the FH as the next launch for ARABSAT. Can anyone confirm this?
VIASAT
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 01/30/2017 03:08 amVIASATI thought Viasat gave up waiting and jumped to Arianespace... https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/
Interestingly there are 6 Falcon Heavy flights listed. But no Red Dragon flights.
Just noticed this poll. I would have voted nay. It's always 6 months away.
SpaceX are still saying FH demo flight this year:QuoteSpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshowhttps://twitter.com/chenry_sn/status/839590030511386625
SpaceX's Shotwell: Falcon Heavy to fly this year #satshow
IMO the Falcon Heavy will fly shortly after the first Falcon 9 Block 5.
Does this mean that FH will have to be re-designed to be compatible with F9B5?
Actual hardware is a good sign, but I still think we're a year or two away. Hopefully only a year, then Red Dragon in 2018 is a real possibility.
BumpWith Koreasat scheduled for late October on 39A and 60 days needed for renovations at 39A for Heavy, it seems less likely 2017 will happen. Would a new poll be in order?
Recent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.
Quote from: guckyfan on 10/02/2017 10:51 amRecent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.How about now?
Quote from: intrepidpursuit on 10/25/2017 07:49 pmQuote from: guckyfan on 10/02/2017 10:51 amRecent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.How about now?No change. I still don't count it out.
Quote from: guckyfan on 10/30/2017 05:35 amQuote from: intrepidpursuit on 10/25/2017 07:49 pmQuote from: guckyfan on 10/02/2017 10:51 amRecent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.How about now?No change. I still don't count it out.With 4/6 of the holddowns installed on the TEL and all the Heavy cores in the barn, it's still possible.
Quote from: envy887 on 10/30/2017 07:54 pmQuote from: guckyfan on 10/30/2017 05:35 amQuote from: intrepidpursuit on 10/25/2017 07:49 pmQuote from: guckyfan on 10/02/2017 10:51 amRecent pictures show that the conversion is well on the way. I would not count out 2017 yet.How about now?No change. I still don't count it out.With 4/6 of the holddowns installed on the TEL and all the Heavy cores in the barn, it's still possible.Photos from the rollout for KoreaSat-5 show more holddowns, and suggest that they are all installed.That said, I would change my vote from yes to no. While I am not as pessimistic as some, like QG, Heavy now seems much less than a year away. Highly likely for early 2018, IMO
So 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse.
Quote from: Dalhousie on 11/30/2017 12:22 amSo 75% of voters in the poll backed the wrong horse. Which just goes to show that polls of technically uninformed people do not and cannot settle the truth of anything, much less make good predictions in repeatable experiments.I've seen too many people, even on this forum, say things like "Well, a majority of the people posting in this thread agree that the Uru Forces of the Mighty Thor actually propel rockets into space, so that means we're all right and you people who quote this 'physics' myth are wrong." Not to that degree, of course -- I exaggerate for effect.The scientific method doesn't care about the majority's opinion. Just about repeatable predictions that are consistently and correctly borne out, and which describe, within acceptable limits, how and why the things we see have the properties they display to us. Majorities that disagree are irrelevant.