Quote from: guckyfan on 09/16/2014 07:42 amHow about this? Only one CCtCap award and that goes to Boeing or Sierra Nevada. SpaceX as the clear fronrunner gets a contract outside CCtCap limitations for fasttracking crew to the ISS? Conceivable?No, not conceivable. It's illegal for NASA to give SpaceX an uncompeted award. CCtCap was a competition open to anyone who wanted to bid.
How about this? Only one CCtCap award and that goes to Boeing or Sierra Nevada. SpaceX as the clear fronrunner gets a contract outside CCtCap limitations for fasttracking crew to the ISS? Conceivable?
Quote from: ChrisWilson68 on 09/16/2014 10:50 amQuote from: guckyfan on 09/16/2014 07:42 amHow about this? Only one CCtCap award and that goes to Boeing or Sierra Nevada. SpaceX as the clear fronrunner gets a contract outside CCtCap limitations for fasttracking crew to the ISS? Conceivable?No, not conceivable. It's illegal for NASA to give SpaceX an uncompeted award. CCtCap was a competition open to anyone who wanted to bid.Simple. NASA puts out a separate Request for Bid for emergency crewed access to the ISS with a crewed demonstration flight to ISS 12 months from the date of the award. Everybody that wants to gets to take a shot at it.
Wow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...
A space plane's day will come. imo
Quote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 09:15 pmWow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now? Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.What seems likely?
Quote from: Silmfeanor on 09/16/2014 09:19 pmQuote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 09:15 pmWow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now? Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.What seems likely?Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.
Quote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 10:52 pmQuote from: Silmfeanor on 09/16/2014 09:19 pmQuote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 09:15 pmWow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now? Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.What seems likely?Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.
...There was news about that...I'd love that, but I am not sure they would pay up. Unless its launched on an Ariane rocket, it's not really employing European industry and workers...and ESA is very about that. Also they have had trouble just trying to agree on which rocket they were going to build next while the rest of the industry marches on. ESA's crew requirements for ISS are very low, so the flight rate would be appalling unless they sent it on other missions. Europes economic problems as a whole are only going to get much worse...so I think appetite for human spaceflight funding will go down for most of the rest of the decade.
Quote from: Burninate on 09/16/2014 10:55 pmQuote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 10:52 pmQuote from: Silmfeanor on 09/16/2014 09:19 pmQuote from: Darkseraph on 09/16/2014 09:15 pmWow...so that turned as I expected and not as all the polls on various Space websites thought...I don't know if that warrants a smiley. But let's keep this discussion on-topic; what will happen to SNC now? Various predictions seen across the 2 threads discussing / updates on the rewards:-SNC will have the option to bid later on, after initial service contracts are up for renewal-SNC will continue to work on Dream Chaser on a slower pace-and that might end in final cancellation after a drawn-out battle. Or not.What seems likely?Oh, I means Boeing is a kind of boring choice, but it sounded like the more likely one. Most people were stridently predicting SpaceX and SNC because that's who they wanted to see win rather than what was actually likely. I feel good to have gone with my head instead of my heart in predictions.I feel bad for Dreamchaser...I'm not sure how they can continue it without NASA as a customer.There was that interest from ESA in a europeanized Dream Chaser.There was news about that...I'd love that, but I am not sure they would pay up. Unless its launched on an Ariane rocket, it's not really employing European industry and workers...and ESA is very about that. Also they have had trouble just trying to agree on which rocket they were going to build next while the rest of the industry marches on. ESA's crew requirements for ISS are very low, so the flight rate would be appalling unless they sent it on other missions. Europes economic problems as a whole are only going to get much worse...so I think appetite for human spaceflight funding will go down for most of the rest of the decade.
I'm expecting SpaceX to be the odd man out. Boeing has flight heritage and big lobbyists. Sierra Nevada has wings and that's something NASA wants it seems. That leaves SpaceX holding the bag. I am one of SpaceX's biggest supporters but, I'm not sure that this wind is blowing in their direction. If not, they'll stay busy with cargo, commercial satellite launches and reuse for now. In the end, they become as know to the general public as Sea Launch sad to say. Without manned flights, SpaceX looses it's appeal.
Dragon V2 + Falcon Heavy are an alternate to some SLS/Orion missions.
Dragon V2 + Raptor rockets should provide an alternate to all SLS/Orion missions.
Plus a part of NASA likes the can do attitude of SpaceX, since SpaceX has a mission much larger than manned ISS flights, SpaceX will tend to accommodate any logical requests to improve on the design, since they are very likely to be needed for the Mars missions SpaceX aims to execute prior to the full blown MCT goal.
Quote from: joek on 09/12/2014 06:27 pmAgree, although I would note that CCtCap selection has implications well beyond this CR and for the next several years). While current budget issues may have an impact on CCtCap award timing, I hope and expect that it has little bearing on the actual awards.CCtCap as written does not allow for fractional awards. On CCtCap award, each CCtCap awardee is committed to complete certification, and guaranteed a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.* On CCtCap award, NASA is committed to funding every awardee through certification and a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.** Assuming the awardee wants those flights.You could still have one company that gets more money and another one that gets less funding. You would just have to adjust the timeline.
Agree, although I would note that CCtCap selection has implications well beyond this CR and for the next several years). While current budget issues may have an impact on CCtCap award timing, I hope and expect that it has little bearing on the actual awards.CCtCap as written does not allow for fractional awards. On CCtCap award, each CCtCap awardee is committed to complete certification, and guaranteed a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.* On CCtCap award, NASA is committed to funding every awardee through certification and a minimum of two post-certification ISS crew flights.** Assuming the awardee wants those flights.