Author Topic: Angara-1.2/AM - Kosmos 2577/8 (OO MKA) - Plesetsk - 17 September 2024 (07:01:00 UTC)  (Read 9251 times)

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Looks like an Angara-1.2 is about to be launched from Plesetsk.

Impact areas for the first stage and the nose fairing:

Quote
NAVAREA XIX 118/24
BARENTS SEA
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 0700 TO 0900 UTC 17 TO 30 SEP
IN AREAS DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY
AREA: A
A. 71-31.03N 032-57.54E
B. 70-31.57N 034-23.46E
C. 70-17.07N 033-00.42E
D. 70-59.45N 032-05.00E
E. 71-22.33N 032-05.00E
F. 71-31.03N 032-57.54E
AREA: B
A. 74-26.38N 028-28.51E
B. 73-21.04N 030-39.43E
C. 73-03.21N 029-12.41E
D. 74-12.43N 027-05.01E
E. 74-26.38N 028-28.51E

2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301000 UTC SEP 24

Impact areas for the 2nd stage and the AM stage:

Quote
NAVAREA XII
121725Z SEP 24
NAVAREA XII 744/24(18,19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 0700Z TO 1100Z
DAILY 17 THRU 30 SEP IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A.
30-04.69N 127-23.08W
30-18.40N 128-29.38W
26-42.43N 129-17.48W
26-27.62N 128-11.59W.

B.
38-11.33N 170-04.15W
38-41.80N 172-20.42W
31-37.52N 174-21.19W
30-59.02N 172-02.78W
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301200Z SEP 24.

The coordinates slightly differ from those for the Angara-1.2. launches on April 29, 2022 (Kosmos-2555) and  October 15, 2022 (Kosmos-2560).

When visiting Plesetsk last April, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said there would be three Angara launches this year. He was shown several Angara rockets being prepared for launch at the time. Video and pictures are here:
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12510298@egNews
« Last Edit: 09/17/2024 03:41 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »

Offline Galactic Penguin SST

Looks like an Angara-1.2 is about to be launched from Plesetsk.

Impact areas for the first stage and the nose fairing:

Quote
NAVAREA XIX 118/24
BARENTS SEA
1. ROCKET LAUNCHING 0700 TO 0900 UTC 17 TO 30 SEP
IN AREAS DANGEROUS TO NAVIGATION BOUNDED BY
AREA: A
A. 71-31.03N 032-57.54E
B. 70-31.57N 034-23.46E
C. 70-17.07N 033-00.42E
D. 70-59.45N 032-05.00E
E. 71-22.33N 032-05.00E
F. 71-31.03N 032-57.54E
AREA: B
A. 74-26.38N 028-28.51E
B. 73-21.04N 030-39.43E
C. 73-03.21N 029-12.41E
D. 74-12.43N 027-05.01E
E. 74-26.38N 028-28.51E

2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301000 UTC SEP 24

Impact areas for the 2nd stage and the AM stage:

Quote
NAVAREA XII
121725Z SEP 24
NAVAREA XII 744/24(18,19).
NORTH PACIFIC.
1. HAZARDOUS OPERATIONS, SPACE DEBRIS 0700Z TO 1100Z
DAILY 17 THRU 30 SEP IN AREAS BOUND BY:
A.
30-04.69N 127-23.08W
30-18.40N 128-29.38W
26-42.43N 129-17.48W
26-27.62N 128-11.59W.

B.
38-11.33N 170-04.15W
38-41.80N 172-20.42W
31-37.52N 174-21.19W
30-59.02N 172-02.78W
2. CANCEL THIS MSG 301200Z SEP 24.

The coordinates slightly differ from those for the Angara-1.2. launches on April 29, 2022 (Kosmos-2555) and  October 15, 2022 (Kosmos-2560).

When visiting Plesetsk last April, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said there would be three Angara launches this year. He was shown several Angara rockets being prepared for launch at the time. Video and pictures are here:
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12510298@egNews

The corresponding reentry NOTAMs that specifically point to them being from Russian rocket launches:

A3805/24 NOTAMR A3801/24
Q) KZAK/QWMLW////000/999/
A) KZAK
B) 2409170700
C) 2409301100
D) DLY 0700 - 1100
E) THE RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES PLANS TO CONDUCT ROCKET FIRINGS.
THERE ARE TWO IMPACT AREAS WI THE OAKLAND ARTCC OCEANIC FIR. IMPACT
AREA 1 IS WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 300441N 1272305W 301824N 1282923W
264226N 1291729W 262737N 1281135W TO POINT OF ORIGIN.
IMPACT AREA 2 IS WI AN AREA DEFINED AS 305901N 1720247W 381120N
1700409W 384148N 1722005W 313731N 1742111W TO POINT OF ORIGIN.  FOR
FLT SAFETY ATC WILL NOT CLEAR IFR FLT THRU THE IMPACT AREAS.
F) SFC
G) UNL


A3804/24 NOTAMN
Q) KZAK/QRACA//////
A) KZAK PART 1 OF 2
B) 2409170630
C) 2409301130
D) DLY 0630 - 1130
E) ATTENTION ACFT OPR AND DISPATCHERS THIS NOTICE IS FOR ALL
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING FM HAWAII TO NORTH AMERICA AND NORTH AMERICA TO
HAWAII. THE FOLLOWING RESTRICTIONS ARE DUE TO THE RUSSIAN AEROSPACE
FORCES ROCKET FIRING IMPACT AREAS.

EB TFC ON R578 ESTIMATING FLITY BTN 0630 AND 1100 SHALL FILE FITES
R578 FLITY TO 305000N1290000W TO FOOTS TO FICKY FLT PLAN ROUTE.
WB TFC ON R578 ESTIMATING FLITY BTN 0630 AND 1130 SHALL FILE FICKY
R578 FOOTS TO 305000N1290000W TO FLITY R578 FITES FLT PLAN ROUTE.
THE TEMPORARY ROUTES DESCRIBED ABOVE ARE FOR ALL AIRCRAFT EQUIPPED
WITH RNP-10 NAVIGATION SYSTEMS OR BETTER.
ALL OTHERS SHALL FLT PLAN
TO AVOID THE AIRSPACE NOTAMED FOR RUSSIAN AEROSPACE FORCES IMPACT
AREAS BY AT LEAST 50NM.  TIMES LISTED ABOVE ARE BASED ON THE
PERFORMANCE OF TURBOJET AIRCRAFT ONLY AND SLOWER AIRCRAFT SHOULD
PLAN ACCORDINGLY. QUESTIONS SHOULD BE DIRECTED TO THE OAKLAND ARTCC
MILITARY OPERATIONS SPECIALIST AT 510-745-3334, OR THE OCEANIC
END PART 1 OF 2
A3804/24 NOTAMN
Q) KZAK/QRACA//////
A) KZAK PART 2 OF 2
B) 2409170630
C) 2409301130
D) DLY 0630 - 1130
E) SUPERVISOR AT 510-745-3342.
F) SFC
G) UNL
END PART 2 OF 2


A5057/24 NOTAMN
Q) ENOB/QRDCA/IV/BO /W /000/999/7345N02852E043
A) ENOB B) 2409170700 C) 2409301100
D) DAILY 0700-1100
E) TEMPO DANGER AREA 'RUS SPACE LAUNCH AREA SEPT24' ACTIVATED. PSN
734202N 0300000E - 742638N 0282851E - 741243N 0270501E - 730321N
0291241E - 731308N 0300000E - (734202N 0300000E)
IMPACT AREA FOR RUSSIAN MISSILES. SIMILAR ACTIVITIES ARE ALSO
PLANNED WITHIN THE UNALLOCATED INTERNATIONAL AIRSPACE IN PSN 734202N
0300000E - 732104N 0303943E - 731308N 0300000E - (734202N 0300000E).
F) GND G) UNL
« Last Edit: 09/13/2024 04:44 pm by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Online zubenelgenubi

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Unless this is a previously (completely) unknown payload, then it should be one of these?

If so, is any one of them more probable?


Planned Russian space launches
(suborbital launches are not included!)

2024
UTC Date (Format: DDD:HH:MM:SS:MS) – Satellite(s) – Rocket/Upper stage – Cosmodrome (Site/Pad) - Remarks

September  17/30 (261:07:00:xx.xxx/274:09:00:xx.xxx) - Kosmos – Angara-A1.2/AM (71604/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1
<snip>
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos/Kosmos/Kosmos (14F132 Rodnik-S/Strela-3M) [block-17] – Angara-A1.2/AM or Angara-A1.2/Briz-KM-2 (7160x/x) or Rokot-M/Briz-KM-2 (x/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1 or Plesetsk, 133/3
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos/Kosmos/Kosmos (14F132 Rodnik-S/Strela-3M) [block-18] – Angara-A1.2/AM or Angara-A1.2/Briz-KM-2 (7160x/x) or Rokot-M/Briz-KM-2 (x/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1 or Plesetsk, 133/3
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos/Kosmos/Kosmos (14F132 Rodnik-S/Strela-3M) [block-19] – Angara-A1.2/AM or Angara-A1.2/Briz-KM-2 (7160x/x) or Rokot-M/Briz-KM-2 (x/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1 or Plesetsk, 133/3
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos/Kosmos/Kosmos (14F132 Rodnik-S/Strela-3M) [block-20] – Angara-A1.2/AM or Angara-A1.2/Briz-KM-2 (7160x/x) or Rokot-M/Briz-KM-2 (x/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1 or Plesetsk, 133/3
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos (MKA-R №1) – Angara-A1.2/AM (17605/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1
TBD (xxx:xx:xx:xx.xxx) - Kosmos – Angara-A1.2/AM (17606/x) – Plesetsk, 35/1
<snip>
« Last Edit: 09/15/2024 12:48 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Unless this is a previously (completely) unknown payload, then it should be one of these?

If so, is any one of them more probable?

The Angara-1.2 has three known military payloads: Strela-3M/Rodnik, EO MKA and Razbeg.

Strela-3M/Rodnik (14F132)

These are small military communications satellites of ISS Reshetnev that have so far been launched in trios by the Rokot launch vehicle (the latest launch having taken place in November 2018). Rokot launches were discontinued because the rocket contained Ukrainian-built components and therefore Rodnik was moved to Angara-1.2 (a decision made long before the start of the war in February 2022). As is known from court documents, the program has suffered major delays not only because of the launch vehicle switch, but also due to the need to replace foreign-built electronic components for the satellites' 14R59 communications payload (as a result of the sanctions). 

Although the launch of the next trio (“Block 17”) is long overdue, it is doubtful that this is the payload for the upcoming launch. All previous Rodnik satellites were placed into roughly circular 1,400 km orbits with an inclination of 82.6°. The NOTAMs for this launch show that the rocket is headed for an orbit with a much higher inclination, probably around 96°. Even if Angara-1.2 would introduce a new inclination for Rodnik (which is unlikely), another problem is that the AM stage will deorbit itself within a couple of hours after launch. Can it do that after having circularized the orbit above 1,000 km (assuming that remains unchanged)?

I should add that an all-Russian version of the Rokot (Rokot-M) is expected to make its debut before the end of the year (at least that is what Defense Minister Shoigu said during a visit to Plesetsk last April). It is not impossible that amid all the launch delays, Rodnik has been moved back from Angara to Rokot.   


EO MKA

Mysterious low-orbiting satellites, four of which are believed to have been launched so far (Kosmos-2551, 2555, 2560 and 2568). The first and fourth went up on a Soyuz-2.1v, the second and third on an Angara-1.2/AM. The first three re-entered after just weeks in orbit without having made any maneuvers. Kosmos-2568, however, suddenly started making orbit corrections several months into its mission and remains in a low orbit under 300 km 1.5 years after its launch.

What the upcoming launch has in common with Kosmos-2555 and 2560 is that it is headed for roughly the same inclination and that the AM stage will be deorbited shortly after deploying the payload. However, the NOTAM coordinates for this launch are somewhat different from those for the launches of Kosmos-2555 and 2560 (which were exactly the same). The most notable difference is that the latitude of the second stage impact zone in the Pacific is significantly higher (between 26-30°N versus  11-15°N for the EO MKA launches). In other words, the second stage will impact the ocean earlier. That could be due to a lower insertion orbit and/or a heavier payload.


Razbeg (14F169)

Small optical reconnaissance satellites of VNIIEM. According to a report on the environmental impact of Razbeg launches from Plesetsk that appeared online earlier this year, the satellites are compatible with the Soyuz-2.1v, Soyuz-2.1a, Soyuz-2.1b and Angara-1.2/AM and can be launched solo or in groups. One problem is that the same report indicated that during Razbeg launches the Angara’s second stage will enter orbit, whereas it clearly will be suborbital on the upcoming launch.


In short, there are reasons to doubt that any of these satellites will be on board. It may well be something totally unknown. As is evident from some recent launches, some Russian military space projects have not been identified through open source intelligence and this could be another one. We’ll just have to wait and see.



Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://www.interfax.ru/russia/982339

The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed the launch of an Angara-1.2 from Plesetsk at 10.00 Moscow time (7.00 UTC), so right at the beginning of the window given in the NOTAMs. It talks about the launch of satellites (plural). No further details so far.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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An insider on the NK forum says that there are two satellites on board and that they are designated OO MKA. "MKA" stands for "small satellite" and, according to the source, the first "O" stands for "opytnyy", which means "experimental". It is a synonym for "eksperimentalnyy", the first word in EO MKA. Not clear though if there is any connection with EO MKA.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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https://tass.ru/kosmos/21883941

The Ministry of Defense reports that the satellites have been placed into the planned orbit. Communications have been established with them and they are functioning normally. The number of satellites placed into orbit is not given, but, again, an insider on the NK forum claims there are two.

Judging from the NOTAMs, the AM stage will be de-orbited on the second revolution, but we're not likely to get official confirmation of that. We'll now have to wait for US tracking data to find out into what kind of orbit the satellites have been placed. 

Offline Alter Sachse

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07:01 ?
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Offline Alter Sachse

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https://vk.com/roscosmos?w=wall-30315369_573573

The launch of the launch vehicle and the insertion of the spacecraft into the designed orbit went smoothly. After the launch, the Angara-1.2 light launch vehicle was escorted by the ground-based automated control system of the German Titov Main Test Space Center.

At the estimated time, the spacecraft were placed into their target orbits and were taken over for control by the ground facilities of the space forces of the All-Union Space Forces.

A stable telemetry link has been established and maintained with the spacecrafts, their onboard systems are functioning normally.

Photo: Angara-1.2 rocket. Press service of the Russian Defense Ministry

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
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Offline B. Hendrickx

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Video of the roll-out and launch on the website of the Ministry of Defense:
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12529550@egNews

More footage on Zvezda TV:
https://tvzvezda.ru/news/20249171352-XBsgk.html


Offline Alter Sachse

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Kosmos 2577 and Kosmos 2578
« Last Edit: 09/17/2024 01:01 pm by Alter Sachse »
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ORIGINATOR    "18 SPCS"
OBJECT_ID    "2024-166A"
EPOCH    "2024-09-17T13:16:37.600608"
INCLINATION    "96.7682"
NORAD_CAT_ID    "61179"
PERIOD    "91.254"
APOAPSIS    "343.838"
PERIAPSIS    "328.347"

OBJECT_ID    "2024-166B"
EPOCH    "2024-09-17T13:16:37.615296"
INCLINATION    "96.7691"
NORAD_CAT_ID    "61180"
PERIOD    "91.253"
APOAPSIS    "343.761"
PERIAPSIS    "328.252"
« Last Edit: 09/17/2024 02:09 pm by input~2 »

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https://twitter.com/tskelso/status/1836098625925189784

Quote
CelesTrak has GP data for 2 objects from the launch (2024-166) of COSMOS 2577 & 2578 atop an Angara-1.2 rocket from Plesetsk Cosmodrome on Sep 17 at 1001 UTC: russianspaceweb.com/angara1-flight…. Data for the launch can be found at: https://celestrak.org/NORAD/elements/table.php?INTDES=2024-166

Offline B. Hendrickx

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All indications are that Kosmos-2577 and 2578 are low-flying satellites of a type similar to Kosmos-2551, 2555, 2560 and 2568, earlier identified as EO MKA. The first and last of those were launched by the Soyuz-2.1v and the second and third by the Angara-1.2. Here’s a comparison of their initial orbit parameters:

Kosmos-2551: 295x307 km, 96.34°
Kosmos-2555: 278x293 km, 96.45°
Kosmos-2560: 329х344 km, 96.35°
Kosmos-2568: 329x345 km, 96.46°
Kosmos-2577/2578: 328x343, 96.77°

As can be seen, the initial perigee/apogee of the latest four satellites are strikingly similar. There were slight differences in the impact zones for this Angara-1.2 launch and the two earlier ones (see Reply 3), but these can be explained by the presence of two rather than one satellite (especially the earlier impact time of the second stage). After deploying the payloads on the two previous launches, the AM upper stage performed a test burn that raised its apogee to around 700-800 km and then de-orbited itself. It may have done the same this time, but this would have happened before it was tracked and may never be confirmed.

The fact that the latest two satellites are in the same series as EO MKA was also confirmed by an insider on the NK forum. He did write that the latest two are designated OO MKA instead of EO MKA. These abbreviations seem to stand for “opytnyy obrazets malogo kosmicheskogo apparata” (опытный образец малого космического аппарата) and “eksperimentalnyy obrazets malenkogo kosmicheskogo apparata” (экспериментальный образец малого космического аппарата). These terms translate the same, namely “experimental model of a small satellite”. However, EO and OO are standard terms in the production of Russian technology that denote different products manufactured at different times in the development process. Basically, an EO is manufactured in the research (“NIR”) phase of a project and can be used to refine the final design (somewhat similar to a prototype) and an OO is manufactured in the development (“OKR”) phase of a project to determine if it can enter production. That would imply that the latest two satellites more closely resemble the operational version of the satellite than the earlier ones. 

The first three EO MKA satellites re-entered after just a couple of weeks without making any maneuvers, but Kosmos-2568 started making regular orbit corrections in the summer of last year after it had sunk to just below 300 km and continues to maintain that low altitude. We may see the same happen with the latest two satellites. Interestingly, Kosmos-2574 and 2575 (both launched by the Soyuz-2.1v in December 2023 and January 2024) are showing similar behavior. They are now maintaining a mean altitude of 293 km and it’s also worth noting that their inclination and orbital plane are very close to those of the newly launched pair (although it’s too early to say if they’re co-planar).  Yet another satellite, Kosmos-2572, orbited by the Soyuz-2.1b in November 2023, is also maintaining an altitude around 300 km, but must be much bigger considering the heavier launch vehicle.

Although all these satellites behave like VLEO (“very low Earth orbit”) imaging satellites, none of them can be positively identified as such. As I have explained in other threads, there are reasons to doubt that Kosmos-2574/2575 are Razbeg satellites (produced by VNIIEM) and that Kosmos-2572 is Razdan (produced by RKTs Progress), as had been speculated earlier. Neither is the purpose of the EO MKA/OO MKA satellites known. They have so far left no trace in publicly available documentation and their prime contractor is unknown. It is remarkable that Kosmos-2568 has been able to maintain its low orbit for 1.5 years, especially considering the significant drag it has been experiencing in these times of high solar activity. It may well use an electric propulsion system to compensate for the drag (and the same goes for Kosmos-2572).

Finally, it’s interesting to note that a significant percentage of Russian military satellites launched in recent years is of an experimental nature and that many of the “regular” satellites seem to remain grounded for lengthy periods of time. This has so far been a very meager year for Russia’s military space program. A total of 18 military launches were promised at the beginning of the year and only three have taken place so far. It is even doubtful that the overall number of Russian launches will reach 18 by the end of the year. The most logical explanation would be that the Russian space program is only now beginning to feel the full brunt of the sanctions, but that is open to discussion.
 


« Last Edit: 09/17/2024 09:16 pm by B. Hendrickx »

Offline gosnold

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Thanks for the info Bart! The latest two do have a very similar orbit to COSMOS 2568 but they orbit in the other direction, with the node in sunlight being ascending. That's weird, if have never seen that before. Normally if you add satellites to the plane you would put them in the same direction and phase them equally to ensure a pass per day. 3 per plane seem right for that since they are flying low, normally 2 are enough.

Maybe there is some benefit for some specific latitudes? I guess we'll have to wait and see how the new one phase themselves.

Offline B. Hendrickx

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Thanks for the info Bart! The latest two do have a very similar orbit to COSMOS 2568 but they orbit in the other direction, with the node in sunlight being ascending. That's weird, if have never seen that before. Normally if you add satellites to the plane you would put them in the same direction and phase them equally to ensure a pass per day. 3 per plane seem right for that since they are flying low, normally 2 are enough.

Yes, the similarity with the orbit of Kosmos-2568 is only in the initial perigee/apogee and the inclination. Kosmos-2568 (as well as the earlier EO MKA satellites (Kosmos-2551, 2555, 2560)) was launched with a local time at the descending node (LTDN) of 11.30, whereas the LTDN for Kosmos-2577/2578 is 22.40. Also, Kosmos-2568 is in a totally different orbital plane than the two newly launched satellites, so whatever it is doing does not look like it is being co-ordinated with the new satellites.

Take a look, however, at Kosmos-2574 and 2575.  Their initial LTDN was also 22.40 and they are in an orbital plane quite close to that of Kosmos-2577/2578, so there could be a link between these missions, which may imply that Kosmos-2574 and 2575 also belong to the EO MKA/OO MKA series.  One difference is that Kosmos-2574 and 2575 were placed into higher initial orbits (349x360 km) than the satellites identified as EO MKA/OO MKA. What they do have in common with Kosmos-2568 is that both are now performing regular burns to maintain an orbit just below 300 km (the mean altitude for both is 293 km).
« Last Edit: 09/20/2024 10:43 pm by B. Hendrickx »

Offline B. Hendrickx

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More than two weeks after launch, Kosmos-2577 and 2578 are still very close to each other. Both are in 321x340 km orbits with identical inclinations. Satellite tracking maps show Object A trailing Object B by just about 15 seconds. Attached are simultaneous screenshots of a recent pass over South Africa. The Celestrak graphs below show no obvious signs of altitude corrections over the past two weeks, but one would expect natural forces to have caused the satellites to slowly drift apart by now if no deliberate action was taken to keep them so close together.

This pair is worth keeping an eye on in the coming days and weeks, also because their missions are possibly being coordinated with those of Kosmos-2574 and 2575. These are in lower orbits, but very close to the orbital plane of Kosmos-2577 and 2578. After dipping below 300 km, Kosmos-2574 and 2575 settled into an orbital regime in which their average altitude is nearly identical and they are continuously separated by about 180°.  This is strongly indicative of some type of remote sensing mission.     


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