Author Topic: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion  (Read 16749 times)

Offline GewoonLukas_

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1642
  • Lukas C. H.
  • Netherlands
  • Liked: 4022
  • Likes Given: 1964
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #40 on: 07/24/2024 08:07 pm »
The NRO patch for the NROL-64 mission (which will launch on Vulcan) has appeared/leaked for some reason. Possibly this will be Vulcan's first NRO launch?
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Offline Newton_V

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 871
  • United States
  • Liked: 877
  • Likes Given: 132
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #41 on: 07/25/2024 12:34 am »
Color is odd though, I thought it was gold.

Offline GewoonLukas_

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1642
  • Lukas C. H.
  • Netherlands
  • Liked: 4022
  • Likes Given: 1964
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #42 on: 07/25/2024 05:47 am »
Color is odd though, I thought it was gold.

There indeed also appears to be a gold version:
« Last Edit: 07/25/2024 05:48 am by GewoonLukas_ »
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Offline AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 356
  • United States
  • Liked: 411
  • Likes Given: 879
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #43 on: 08/02/2024 01:25 am »
My guess for ULA's manifest in 2024 2025 is:

Atlas V: AV Kuiper L2 through L8, ViaSat-3 EMEA, Starliner-1 (August)
Vulcan: GPS III-7 (January), DCC-1, T1TR-B (April), DCC-2 (July), USSF-112, WGS-11, USSF-23, GPS III-8, USSF-57, and VC Kuiper L1

Edit Aug. 5: Fix year
« Last Edit: 08/05/2024 11:00 pm by AndrewM »

Offline deltaV

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2694
  • Change in velocity
  • Liked: 1030
  • Likes Given: 3837
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #44 on: 08/02/2024 04:31 am »
My guess for ULA's manifest in 2024 is:

You mean 2025?

Offline AndrewM

  • Global Moderator
  • Full Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 356
  • United States
  • Liked: 411
  • Likes Given: 879
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #45 on: 08/05/2024 10:59 pm »
My guess for ULA's manifest in 2024 is:

You mean 2025?

Yep, 2nd time I've done that in the last week. :(

Offline seb21051

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 299
  • Michigan, USA
  • Liked: 156
  • Likes Given: 537
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #46 on: 08/06/2024 09:19 pm »
Freudian Slip. You want it to be 2024. Perfectly understandable for a Space Enthusiast.

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12586
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 83523
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #47 on: 08/08/2024 05:07 pm »
SLC-41 schedule, remainder of 2024 and into 2025:
One Atlas V MLP
One Vulcan VLP

dummy payload         Vulcan VC4L    16 September 2024

USSF-106                    Vulcan VC4S?  NET October

USSF-87 GSSAP-7/8  Vulcan VC4S    December

Kuiper Flight 1            Atlas V 551      Q4

ViaSat-3.3                   Atlas V 551      late

GPS III SV07               Vulcan VC2S?  Jan 2025

Dream Chaser Fl 1     Vulcan VC4L    early 2025

Seeking correction or clarification

Busy fourth quarter at SLC-41:
Project Kuiper update

Quote
We expect to ship our first completed production satellites this summer, and we’re targeting our first full-scale Kuiper mission for Q4 aboard an Atlas V rocket from ULA.

Quote
United Launch Alliance Successfully Launches 100th National Security Mission
July 30, 2024
[...]
ULA’s next launch is the second certification flight (Cert-2) of the Vulcan rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida [ currently Sep 16]. Vulcan will also launch USSF-106 and USSF-87, two critical NSS missions, to orbit later this year. 

NET October. Seems like the 60 day review period following Cert-2 got waived or reduced.

Quote
As of Friday, the Space Force is targeting October for this launch, following the Cert-2 mission on Vulcan in mid-September.
https://x.com/StephenClark1/status/1820181812976427505

Into 2025:
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/companies/lockheed-boeing-alliance-hit-with-us-fine-for-launch-delays/ar-BB1moavO
[May 14]
Quote
Launch of a seventh new GPS-III satellite slated for next month [June 2024] was rescheduled for January 2025, the service said.

Viasat-3.3
The next Viasat 3 bird to launch, which is Viasat 3 F3, is expected to serve Asia/Pacific and launch late this year.
https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2024/08/delta-now-eyeing-mid-late-2025-for-free-wi-fi-on-transpacific-routes/ [Aug 13]
Quote
Indeed, Delta now expects that widebodies flying transpacific routes (including to Asia, Australia and New Zealand) — as well as to South Africa, will begin rollout in “mid-late 2025”. At that time, barring any unexpected events, Viasat should be able to support inflight Wi-Fi in the Asia-Pacific region using its high-capacity ViaSat-3 F3 satellite.

(Viasat has Asia-Pacific coverage via the Global Xpress Ka-band satellite fleet acquired through its Inmarsat buy, but its IFC system is not yet fully interoperable with GX, and interoperability will require hardware upgrades at airlines.)

Anticipating a calendar 2024 launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 satellite into geostationary orbit, Viasat management recently told investors that the Carlsbad, California-based firm is eyeing a service entry of “mid-late 2025”.

Edited
« Last Edit: 08/18/2024 04:36 am by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline GewoonLukas_

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1642
  • Lukas C. H.
  • Netherlands
  • Liked: 4022
  • Likes Given: 1964
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #48 on: 08/10/2024 07:40 am »
Northrop Grumman's Protected Tactical Satcom satellite will launch aboard a national security space mission on Vulcan next year. USSF-16, USSF-23 and USSF-112 appear to be the possible options:

Quote
Northrop Grumman developing military communications satellite for 2025 launch
The company’s Protected Tactical Satcom satellite will be built on an ESPAStar-HP bus
April 9, 2023

[...]

Blake Bullock, vice president of communication systems at Northrop Grumman’s Strategic Space Systems Division, said the company’s PTS payload will fly on dedicated spacecraft built on an ESPAStar-HP satellite bus. This is a larger version of the company’s ESPAStar commercial bus optimized for operation in geostationary orbit.

[...]

Bullock said Northrop Grumman’s satellite will launch to orbit on a national security space mission aboard a United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket. “The program is on track for a 2025 launch,” she said in a statement to SpaceNews.

[...]



Also, the USSF-57 mission with the NG-OPIR-GEO 1 satellite may be delayed from 2025 to 2026:

Quote
Next-Gen OPIR: 2 steps forward, 1 step back for missile warning effort
The Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared constellation's first satellite may see its launch pushed back by a year to 2026.
May 03, 2024

The Space Force’s flagship but somewhat troubled missile warning satellite development program is babystepping its way toward deployment of both its space and ground segments — although the first of the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) birds may well miss its planned 2025 launch into geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) by a year.

[...]

Meanwhile, first Next-Gen GEO bird is running about a year behind schedule, due to issues with its sensor payload being also built by RTX — although both the Space Force and prime contractor Lockheed Martin up to now have been hoping to be able rejigger activities in order to meet the 2025 launch date.

However, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) on April 30, Frank Calvelli, the Air Force’s head of space acquisition, appeared to be laying the groundwork for that date to slip. While saying that the Next-Gen GEO “is continuing to make progress,” he raised the prospect that the first satellite might not be launched until 2026.

“We have some challenges making sure that the mission payload gets delivered. It’s about a year late and we’re tracking that really closely. It should arrive this summer for integration into the satellite and for a launch in … early ’25 or early -26,” he said.
« Last Edit: 08/10/2024 07:48 am by GewoonLukas_ »
Lukas C. H. • Hobbyist Mission Patch Artist 🎨 • May the force be with you my friend, Ad Astra Per Aspera ✨️

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12586
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 83523
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #49 on: 09/04/2024 08:15 pm »
SLC-41 schedule, remainder of 2024 and into 2025:
One Atlas V MLP
One Vulcan VLP

dummy payload         Vulcan VC4L    late September 2024

USSF-106                    Vulcan VC4S?  NET October

USSF-87 GSSAP-7/8  Vulcan VC4S    December

Kuiper Flight 1            Atlas V 551      Q4

ViaSat-3.3                   Atlas V 551      late

GPS III SV07               Vulcan VC2S?  Jan 2025

Dream Chaser Fl 1     Vulcan VC4L    early 2025

Seeking correction or clarification
« Last Edit: 09/04/2024 08:17 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline russianhalo117

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8861
  • Liked: 4802
  • Likes Given: 768
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #50 on: 09/05/2024 02:16 am »
SLC-41 schedule, remainder of 2024 and into 2025:
One Atlas V MLP
One Vulcan VLP

dummy payload         Vulcan VC4L    late September 2024

USSF-106                    Vulcan VC4S?  NET October

USSF-87 GSSAP-7/8  Vulcan VC4S    December

Kuiper Flight 1            Atlas V 551      Q4

ViaSat-3.3                   Atlas V 551      late

GPS III SV07               Vulcan VC2S?  Jan 2025

Dream Chaser Fl 1     Vulcan VC4L    early 2025

Seeking correction or clarification
dummy payload         Vulcan VC2S    late September 2024

Offline zubenelgenubi

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12586
  • Arc to Arcturus, then Spike to Spica
  • Sometimes it feels like Trantor in the time of Hari Seldon
  • Liked: 8485
  • Likes Given: 83523
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #51 on: 09/17/2024 12:59 am »
SLC-41 schedule, remainder of 2024 and into 2025:
One Atlas V MLP
One Vulcan VLP

✅️ dummy payload    Vulcan VC2S    early October/NET October 4 2024

USSF-106                    Vulcan VC4S?  NET October

USSF-87 GSSAP-7/8  Vulcan VC4S    December

ViaSat-3.3                   Atlas V 551      late

GPS III SV07               Vulcan VC2S?  Jan 2025

Dream Chaser Fl 1     Vulcan VC4L   Q1 early 2025

Kuiper Flight 1            Atlas V 551      early 2025 Q4 2024

Seeking correction or clarification
« Last Edit: 10/05/2024 01:34 pm by zubenelgenubi »
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 54381
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 90579
  • Likes Given: 41833
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #52 on: 10/02/2024 07:17 pm »
https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/1841557509133480088

Quote
A couple notes from today's ULA Cert-2 briefing:
- ULA still expects to launch USSF-106 and 87 missions (first national security Vulcan flights) this year, assuming Cert-2 goes well;
- 20 launches next year, split  half-and-half between Atlas and Vulcan;
- first Atlas 5 Kuiper launch slips to early next year;
- room in the manifest next year for Dream Chaser, but no date set yet

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 54381
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 90579
  • Likes Given: 41833
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #53 on: 10/03/2024 06:05 pm »
https://twitter.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150

Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?

https://twitter.com/torybruno/status/1841893391950573568

Quote
Our previous peak was 16. Did 14 the year I arrived. All that with 1 VIF / 1 Track. It’s been lower the last few of years because we split the USG market competitively with SX. We’ve nearly finished all the factory expansions and will have 2 VIFs. Hard work, but not a stretch

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6695
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 5448
  • Likes Given: 2267
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #54 on: 10/03/2024 11:04 pm »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

Offline Jim

  • Night Gator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 37989
  • Cape Canaveral Spaceport
  • Liked: 22330
  • Likes Given: 432
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #55 on: 10/04/2024 12:02 am »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

It uses the same infrastructure as Atlas V

Online sstli2

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 106
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 52
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #56 on: 10/04/2024 02:19 am »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.

The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.

30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.

So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.

« Last Edit: 10/04/2024 02:20 am by sstli2 »

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6695
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 5448
  • Likes Given: 2267
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #57 on: 10/04/2024 03:04 am »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.

The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.

30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.

So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.
Sure, and Jim has already given us one differentiator. Since I am not in the industry, I cannot personally evaluate on the merits, and this is why I asked others to comment.

I do note that Falcon 9 did not achieve ten launches in its first four years even though SpaceX considered itself to be under incredible pressure to go faster.

I also note that Vulcan Centaur is very late, and that its second launch will be eleven months after its first launch, so ULA will need to break loose from this track record.

I will be very happy to cheer for ULA if they do launch ten Vulcan Centaurs in 2025.

I'm an equal-opportunity skeptic. These track records aren't just for Vulcan Centaur. They also apply to Starship and to New Glenn.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #58 on: 10/04/2024 03:54 am »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.

The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.

30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.

So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.
Sure, and Jim has already given us one differentiator. Since I am not in the industry, I cannot personally evaluate on the merits, and this is why I asked others to comment.

I do note that Falcon 9 did not achieve ten launches in its first four years even though SpaceX considered itself to be under incredible pressure to go faster.

I also note that Vulcan Centaur is very late, and that its second launch will be eleven months after its first launch, so ULA will need to break loose from this track record.

I will be very happy to cheer for ULA if they do launch ten Vulcan Centaurs in 2025.

I'm an equal-opportunity skeptic. These track records aren't just for Vulcan Centaur. They also apply to Starship and to New Glenn.
I would even be happy to cheer if ULA has more than ten total launches in 2025.

Offline DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6695
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 5448
  • Likes Given: 2267
Re: ULA Launch Manifest - Discussion
« Reply #59 on: 10/04/2024 04:30 am »
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150
Quote
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years.  Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?

Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.

The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.

30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.

So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.
Sure, and Jim has already given us one differentiator. Since I am not in the industry, I cannot personally evaluate on the merits, and this is why I asked others to comment.

I do note that Falcon 9 did not achieve ten launches in its first four years even though SpaceX considered itself to be under incredible pressure to go faster.

I also note that Vulcan Centaur is very late, and that its second launch will be eleven months after its first launch, so ULA will need to break loose from this track record.

I will be very happy to cheer for ULA if they do launch ten Vulcan Centaurs in 2025.

I'm an equal-opportunity skeptic. These track records aren't just for Vulcan Centaur. They also apply to Starship and to New Glenn.
I would even be happy to cheer if ULA has more than ten total launches in 2025.
They now have a chance to do ten Atlas V in 2025. Unfortunately all of the are conditional.
  8 Kuipers -- The satellites and their dispenser need to be available
  1 Viasat   --  uncertain
  1 Starliner -- contingent on CFT certification.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1