Color is odd though, I thought it was gold.
My guess for ULA's manifest in 2024 is:
Quote from: AndrewM on 08/02/2024 01:25 amMy guess for ULA's manifest in 2024 is:You mean 2025?
Project Kuiper updateQuoteWe expect to ship our first completed production satellites this summer, and we’re targeting our first full-scale Kuiper mission for Q4 aboard an Atlas V rocket from ULA.
We expect to ship our first completed production satellites this summer, and we’re targeting our first full-scale Kuiper mission for Q4 aboard an Atlas V rocket from ULA.
QuoteUnited Launch Alliance Successfully Launches 100th National Security MissionJuly 30, 2024[...]ULA’s next launch is the second certification flight (Cert-2) of the Vulcan rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida [ currently Sep 16]. Vulcan will also launch USSF-106 and USSF-87, two critical NSS missions, to orbit later this year.
United Launch Alliance Successfully Launches 100th National Security MissionJuly 30, 2024[...]ULA’s next launch is the second certification flight (Cert-2) of the Vulcan rocket from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida [ currently Sep 16]. Vulcan will also launch USSF-106 and USSF-87, two critical NSS missions, to orbit later this year.
NET October. Seems like the 60 day review period following Cert-2 got waived or reduced.QuoteAs of Friday, the Space Force is targeting October for this launch, following the Cert-2 mission on Vulcan in mid-September.https://x.com/StephenClark1/status/1820181812976427505
As of Friday, the Space Force is targeting October for this launch, following the Cert-2 mission on Vulcan in mid-September.
https://www.msn.com/en-ae/money/companies/lockheed-boeing-alliance-hit-with-us-fine-for-launch-delays/ar-BB1moavO[May 14]QuoteLaunch of a seventh new GPS-III satellite slated for next month [June 2024] was rescheduled for January 2025, the service said.
Launch of a seventh new GPS-III satellite slated for next month [June 2024] was rescheduled for January 2025, the service said.
The next Viasat 3 bird to launch, which is Viasat 3 F3, is expected to serve Asia/Pacific and launch late this year.https://runwaygirlnetwork.com/2024/08/delta-now-eyeing-mid-late-2025-for-free-wi-fi-on-transpacific-routes/ [Aug 13]QuoteIndeed, Delta now expects that widebodies flying transpacific routes (including to Asia, Australia and New Zealand) — as well as to South Africa, will begin rollout in “mid-late 2025”. At that time, barring any unexpected events, Viasat should be able to support inflight Wi-Fi in the Asia-Pacific region using its high-capacity ViaSat-3 F3 satellite.(Viasat has Asia-Pacific coverage via the Global Xpress Ka-band satellite fleet acquired through its Inmarsat buy, but its IFC system is not yet fully interoperable with GX, and interoperability will require hardware upgrades at airlines.)Anticipating a calendar 2024 launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 satellite into geostationary orbit, Viasat management recently told investors that the Carlsbad, California-based firm is eyeing a service entry of “mid-late 2025”.
Indeed, Delta now expects that widebodies flying transpacific routes (including to Asia, Australia and New Zealand) — as well as to South Africa, will begin rollout in “mid-late 2025”. At that time, barring any unexpected events, Viasat should be able to support inflight Wi-Fi in the Asia-Pacific region using its high-capacity ViaSat-3 F3 satellite.(Viasat has Asia-Pacific coverage via the Global Xpress Ka-band satellite fleet acquired through its Inmarsat buy, but its IFC system is not yet fully interoperable with GX, and interoperability will require hardware upgrades at airlines.)Anticipating a calendar 2024 launch of the ViaSat-3 F3 satellite into geostationary orbit, Viasat management recently told investors that the Carlsbad, California-based firm is eyeing a service entry of “mid-late 2025”.
Northrop Grumman developing military communications satellite for 2025 launchThe company’s Protected Tactical Satcom satellite will be built on an ESPAStar-HP busApril 9, 2023[...]Blake Bullock, vice president of communication systems at Northrop Grumman’s Strategic Space Systems Division, said the company’s PTS payload will fly on dedicated spacecraft built on an ESPAStar-HP satellite bus. This is a larger version of the company’s ESPAStar commercial bus optimized for operation in geostationary orbit.[...]Bullock said Northrop Grumman’s satellite will launch to orbit on a national security space mission aboard a United Launch Alliance Vulcan rocket. “The program is on track for a 2025 launch,” she said in a statement to SpaceNews.[...]
Next-Gen OPIR: 2 steps forward, 1 step back for missile warning effortThe Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared constellation's first satellite may see its launch pushed back by a year to 2026.May 03, 2024The Space Force’s flagship but somewhat troubled missile warning satellite development program is babystepping its way toward deployment of both its space and ground segments — although the first of the Next Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared (Next-Gen OPIR) birds may well miss its planned 2025 launch into geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) by a year.[...]Meanwhile, first Next-Gen GEO bird is running about a year behind schedule, due to issues with its sensor payload being also built by RTX — although both the Space Force and prime contractor Lockheed Martin up to now have been hoping to be able rejigger activities in order to meet the 2025 launch date.However, in testimony before the House Armed Services Committee (HASC) on April 30, Frank Calvelli, the Air Force’s head of space acquisition, appeared to be laying the groundwork for that date to slip. While saying that the Next-Gen GEO “is continuing to make progress,” he raised the prospect that the first satellite might not be launched until 2026.“We have some challenges making sure that the mission payload gets delivered. It’s about a year late and we’re tracking that really closely. It should arrive this summer for integration into the satellite and for a launch in … early ’25 or early -26,” he said.
SLC-41 schedule, remainder of 2024 and into 2025:One Atlas V MLPOne Vulcan VLPdummy payload Vulcan VC4L late September 2024USSF-106 Vulcan VC4S? NET OctoberUSSF-87 GSSAP-7/8 Vulcan VC4S DecemberKuiper Flight 1 Atlas V 551 Q4ViaSat-3.3 Atlas V 551 lateGPS III SV07 Vulcan VC2S? Jan 2025Dream Chaser Fl 1 Vulcan VC4L early 2025Seeking correction or clarification
A couple notes from today's ULA Cert-2 briefing:- ULA still expects to launch USSF-106 and 87 missions (first national security Vulcan flights) this year, assuming Cert-2 goes well;- 20 launches next year, split half-and-half between Atlas and Vulcan;- first Atlas 5 Kuiper launch slips to early next year;- room in the manifest next year for Dream Chaser, but no date set yet
10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
Our previous peak was 16. Did 14 the year I arrived. All that with 1 VIF / 1 Track. It’s been lower the last few of years because we split the USG market competitively with SX. We’ve nearly finished all the factory expansions and will have 2 VIFs. Hard work, but not a stretch
https://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150Quote10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/03/2024 06:05 pmhttps://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150Quote10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years. Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/03/2024 11:04 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/03/2024 06:05 pmhttps://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150Quote10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years. Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.
Quote from: sstli2 on 10/04/2024 02:19 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/03/2024 11:04 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/03/2024 06:05 pmhttps://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150Quote10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years. Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.Sure, and Jim has already given us one differentiator. Since I am not in the industry, I cannot personally evaluate on the merits, and this is why I asked others to comment.I do note that Falcon 9 did not achieve ten launches in its first four years even though SpaceX considered itself to be under incredible pressure to go faster.I also note that Vulcan Centaur is very late, and that its second launch will be eleven months after its first launch, so ULA will need to break loose from this track record.I will be very happy to cheer for ULA if they do launch ten Vulcan Centaurs in 2025.I'm an equal-opportunity skeptic. These track records aren't just for Vulcan Centaur. They also apply to Starship and to New Glenn.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 10/04/2024 03:04 amQuote from: sstli2 on 10/04/2024 02:19 amQuote from: DanClemmensen on 10/03/2024 11:04 pmQuote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 10/03/2024 06:05 pmhttps://x.com/daveginvesting/status/1841867584649519150Quote10 launches for Vulcan next year sounds quite ambitious! Where do you guys put the odds on that happening?No new orbital rocket in the last 30 years has reached its tenth launch in less than four years. Ten next year would means fourteen in less than two years. Vulcan might do it and I wish them the best, but why is it different?Extrapolating things based on the past works well when you have a high number of comparable observations. But here you don't. There's been maybe a handful of ramp-ups of orbital rockets of a comparable class in the past 30 years, and once you remove government vehicles, even fewer.The entire past decade has been littered with firsts for space flight. You could have made similar "it's never happened before" statements about SpaceX cadence around 2015. It never happened before, until it did.30 years ago, there was *no reason* to scale up a launch vehicle quickly. There was little commercial demand and government demand was sparse and fleeting.So while we absolutely should be skeptical of ambitious claims from launch providers, I think it's more useful to evaluate these projections on the actual merits than based on a backward-looking analysis.Sure, and Jim has already given us one differentiator. Since I am not in the industry, I cannot personally evaluate on the merits, and this is why I asked others to comment.I do note that Falcon 9 did not achieve ten launches in its first four years even though SpaceX considered itself to be under incredible pressure to go faster.I also note that Vulcan Centaur is very late, and that its second launch will be eleven months after its first launch, so ULA will need to break loose from this track record.I will be very happy to cheer for ULA if they do launch ten Vulcan Centaurs in 2025.I'm an equal-opportunity skeptic. These track records aren't just for Vulcan Centaur. They also apply to Starship and to New Glenn.I would even be happy to cheer if ULA has more than ten total launches in 2025.