Poll

Which vehicle is your current preference

SD-HLV In-Line (i.e. DIRECT, ESAS Ares V Classic)
SD-HLV Side-mount
Commercial HLV (i.e. Atlas V Phase 2/3A, Falcon-X or Super-Delta)
Kerolox SHLV (i.e. Atlas V Phase 3B or Falcon-XX or NASA-developed Ares-V-RP1)
Ares Launch System (Ares-I and Ares-V as currently envisaged)
Upgraded EELVs (i.e. Atlas V Phase 1, ACES- or Common Centaur-based
MLV/RLV-based frequent launch (NASA or multiple commercial provider-based)
Other - Please specify

Author Topic: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE  (Read 44677 times)

Offline Mark S

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #40 on: 10/12/2010 03:44 am »
How can you pick a launch vehicle without knowing the payload?

How can you pick a payload without knowing the mission?

How can you pick a mission without knowing your capabilities?

Wrong, mission drives the need for the capabilities. It is not build it and they will come.   Payload first, then launch vehicle.   That is how it is done and been done for decades.   That is why Ares I failed.

You said it wrong, Jim. You were supposed to close the circle with:

Quote
How can you decide the capabilities without knowing the payload?

See, it all depends on where in the circle you want to stop. Or start, as the case may be.

Mark S.
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 03:44 am by Mark S »

Online butters

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #41 on: 10/12/2010 03:49 am »
I would vote "lander", since if we develop a lander, then there's a very good chance that we'll find the money to develop a suitable launch architecture.  But the converse is much less likely to come about.  An orbital habitat/mission module may be substituted for the lander if we do not plan to land in any gravity wells.

But in lieu of that option, I would like to vote upgraded EELV followed by commercial HLV.  The subject of the poll implies BEO as the objective, so I actually voted commercial HLV, since I believe that those vehicles would be ready by the time we finally have the in-space hardware ready for any BEO mission.

We could never actually develop any in-space hardware and just work on launch vehicles for another couple decades.  We could have many polls on their relative merits as the programs are cancelled and replaced with new acronyms and such.
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 03:54 am by butters »

Offline Lee Jay

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #42 on: 10/12/2010 03:51 am »
How can you pick a launch vehicle without knowing the payload?

How can you pick a payload without knowing the mission?

How can you pick a mission without knowing your capabilities?

Capabilities aren't the issue.  We've had a good handle on the capabilities of chemical rockets since at least the early 60s or earlier.  The limitation is funding.  So the question is, "how can you pick a mission without knowing your (out-year) funding?"  Answer:  I don't know, but large increases are looking very, very unlikely at this moment.

Offline Rabidpanda

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #43 on: 10/12/2010 04:19 am »
Wrong, mission drives the need for the capabilities. It is not build it and they will come.   Payload first, then launch vehicle.   That is how it is done and been done for decades.   That is why Ares I failed.

Which one did you vote for Jim?  EELV?

Online Chris Bergin

Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #44 on: 10/12/2010 05:23 am »
Vote for your favored option.

Round Two will remove two or three of the above options with the lowest votes.

I like the way Chris is doing this, by whittling down the options.  I voted for kerolox SHLV, but was very close to voting for commercial HLV.  I hope that one of these choices makes it to round 2, while the other is eliminated.  Otherwise I think the vote will be split for those who like these types of vehicles.

By the way, when will we move on to round 2?

Thanks!

Probably all of Tuesday and go to Round 2 on Wednesday. Toying with the idea of Round 2 Group A (SD HLVs) and Group B (Non SD HLVs or something, maybe commerical....will take advice when I'm back from work later today before we start it up), and then a final hoedown (yee haa) showdown of the two or three 'winners' from Group A and B.

Interesting results so far. Of course Inline SD HLV was going to do well on this forum, but polls are only ever cross sections, as there's so much voter apathy with only a three figure total vote so far (according to the admin section, 12 times the amount that have voted have logged on to the forum since we started the poll. Baffles me to be honest). Anyway, still interesting, as we're seeing some movement with the non-HLV preferences via this.
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Offline neilh

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #45 on: 10/12/2010 05:47 am »
Vote for your favored option.

Round Two will remove two or three of the above options with the lowest votes.

I like the way Chris is doing this, by whittling down the options.  I voted for kerolox SHLV, but was very close to voting for commercial HLV.  I hope that one of these choices makes it to round 2, while the other is eliminated.  Otherwise I think the vote will be split for those who like these types of vehicles.

By the way, when will we move on to round 2?

Thanks!

Probably all of Tuesday and go to Round 2 on Wednesday. Toying with the idea of Round 2 Group A (SD HLVs) and Group B (Non SD HLVs or something, maybe commerical....will take advice when I'm back from work later today before we start it up), and then a final hoedown (yee haa) showdown of the two or three 'winners' from Group A and B.

Interesting results so far. Of course Inline SD HLV was going to do well on this forum, but polls are only ever cross sections, as there's so much voter apathy with only a three figure total vote so far (according to the admin section, 12 times the amount that have voted have logged on to the forum since we started the poll. Baffles me to be honest). Anyway, still interesting, as we're seeing some movement with the non-HLV preferences via this.

I actually really like the idea of having separate SD- and non-SD polls for round 2. I don't think I've ever seen polls like that before, and it'd be really interesting to see the results. Comparisons within the same launch vehicle family tend to be more apples-to-apples, and I'm really curious about what people think are the best options within the families.
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Offline kkattula

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #46 on: 10/12/2010 06:16 am »
I voted MLV/RLV-based frequent launch, but I see almost zero probability of this in the next decade.

In Round 2 I will vote for the most Direct-ish SD HLV inline.

Offline Proponent

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #47 on: 10/12/2010 06:21 am »
See, it all depends on where in the circle you want to stop. Or start, as the case may be.

If what's important is exploring space, first choose a space mission and then build a launch vehicle capable of performing the mission.  If what's important is building a rocket, first choose a rocket and then find a mission it can perform.  The US government has chosen the latter path.

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #48 on: 10/12/2010 07:45 am »
After sitting down and thinking about this, I selected 'Commercial HLV'.  Why? Am I not a DIRECT amazing people? Well, I am.  However, DIRECT, for me, has always been the ideal political solution.

However, if I were to be asked what is the best overall option in terms of technology, performance and likely operational costs, it would be to have a large (but not over-large) kerolox MLV scalable to an HLV like the Atlas-V Phase 2/3A.  With engine upgrades and performance tweaks, it will easily get over the 100t to LEO mark and even has a potential three-stage option (Phase 3A).  Additionally, as the Atlas-V evolution uses ACES upper stages, this opens the way to a common payload interface with the EELVs, potentially doubling the number of pads (adding LC-37B and SLC-41 to the two LC-39 pads) available for a large LEO assembly mission.

DIRECT/SLS meets the politicians requirements to protect as much of the shuttle work-force as they can, but it is not the ideal LV.  I support it because it is the only one with a realistic hope of being funded and getting quick results.  However, it is not the best and my vote reflects this.
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Offline Celebrimbor

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #49 on: 10/12/2010 08:14 am »
After sitting down and thinking about this, I selected 'Commercial HLV'.  Why? Am I not a DIRECT amazing people? Well, I am.  However, DIRECT, for me, has always been the ideal political solution.

However, if I were to be asked what is the best overall option in terms of technology, performance and likely operational costs, it would be to have a large (but not over-large) kerolox MLV scalable to an HLV like the Atlas-V Phase 2/3A.  With engine upgrades and performance tweaks, it will easily get over the 100t to LEO mark and even has a potential three-stage option (Phase 3A).  Additionally, as the Atlas-V evolution uses ACES upper stages, this opens the way to a common payload interface with the EELVs, potentially doubling the number of pads (adding LC-37B and SLC-41 to the two LC-39 pads) available for a large LEO assembly mission.

DIRECT/SLS meets the politicians requirements to protect as much of the shuttle work-force as they can, but it is not the ideal LV.  I support it because it is the only one with a realistic hope of being funded and getting quick results.  However, it is not the best and my vote reflects this.

I did the same, for pretty much the same reasons - although I couldn't have expressed them as well!

Offline mdo

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #50 on: 10/12/2010 08:40 am »
... as there's so much voter apathy

A link "active polls" on the forum index page might alleviate what looks like voter apathy.

It is not entirely obvious how to spot polls in an efficient manner, i.e., without continuously checking all subsections.

Offline gin455res

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #51 on: 10/12/2010 08:43 am »
upgraded EELV, as it could be the thin edge of the wedge, i.e. it might be commercially viable, and shift the cost balance between payload and launcher.

Offline madscientist197

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #52 on: 10/12/2010 09:33 am »
Just like Ben I favour DIRECT as a political solution, but in an ideal world Atlas Phase 2 really appeals to me due to the modularity.
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Offline marsavian

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #53 on: 10/12/2010 09:43 am »
I voted for the original in-line SD-HLV, the ESAS Ares V Classic. Maximum bang for buck in the minimum time is what is needed if we seriously want to go to Mars with humans well before 2050 and this HLV either with or without a fuel depot can do that job, it can do it on its own without any new technology if it has to. A big flagship is also needed to spur public interest again in BEO exploration and in this modern day highly interconnected world won't easily be lost once grabbed. This HLV can act as the exciting exploratory spearhead for commercial business to follow in its wake which will enable the cheaper everyday/week launch vehicles that many want. First though the big powerful HLV has to go to new exciting places to show the rest of humanity what they are missing, it must act as the pied piper. This is not just a zero sum game for NASA's budget as has been narrowly and extensively debated here but a grab for a much larger share of humanity's untapped and unused wealth for the pursuit of BEO exploration, enjoyment, exploitation and eventual colonization. The HLV can be the most highly visible expression of that pursuit as well as being the most capable exponent of that desire.
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 09:52 am by marsavian »

Offline Jim

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #54 on: 10/12/2010 11:45 am »
Wrong, mission drives the need for the capabilities. It is not build it and they will come.   Payload first, then launch vehicle.   That is how it is done and been done for decades.   That is why Ares I failed.

Which one did you vote for Jim?  EELV?

There wasn't one that really liked because, I see three/four of them as one.

Upgraded EELVs (i.e. Atlas V Phase 1, ACES- or Common Centaur-based)
as a start which as requirements evolve could lead into

Commercial HLV (i.e. Atlas V Phase 2/3A, Falcon-X or Super-Delta)
and further

Kerolox SHLV (i.e. Atlas V Phase 3B or Falcon-XX or NASA-developed Ares-V-RP1) but without the NASA developed vehicle.

or by that time an  MLV/RLV-based frequent launch may be viable

So for the poll, I picked Upgraded EELVs as the start.

I picked these because they exist, they are cheaper and affordable and can be sized for existing budgets and they don't exist just to keep people employed.

It is not NASA's job to take care of humanity nor the USA's, these meet the USA's requirements
« Last Edit: 10/12/2010 01:57 pm by Jim »

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #55 on: 10/12/2010 11:50 am »
or by that time an  MLV/RLV-based frequent launch may be viable

So for the poll, I picked Upgraded EELVs as the start

I chose MLV/RLV (big surprise there), with upgraded EELVs as a close second. Why wouldn't MLVs be viable today? I thought that included EELV Heavies.
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Offline dad2059

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #56 on: 10/12/2010 11:55 am »
Count me in for commercial HLV, 1st Round.

IMHO, the most cost effective.
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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #57 on: 10/12/2010 12:24 pm »
there's so much voter apathy with only a three figure total vote so far (according to the admin section, 12 times the amount that have voted have logged on to the forum since we started the poll. Baffles me to be honest).

Well, to be honest - what's the point of this poll? I mean it doesn't really decide on anything and people are generally apathetic even when their vote *does* count for something.  :)

Offline HappyMartian

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #58 on: 10/12/2010 12:57 pm »
I voted for the original in-line SD-HLV, the ESAS Ares V Classic. Maximum bang for buck in the minimum time is what is needed if we seriously want to go to Mars with humans well before 2050 and this HLV either with or without a fuel depot can do that job, it can do it on its own without any new technology if it has to. A big flagship is also needed to spur public interest again in BEO exploration and in this modern day highly interconnected world won't easily be lost once grabbed. This HLV can act as the exciting exploratory spearhead for commercial business to follow in its wake which will enable the cheaper everyday/week launch vehicles that many want. First though the big powerful HLV has to go to new exciting places to show the rest of humanity what they are missing, it must act as the pied piper. This is not just a zero sum game for NASA's budget as has been narrowly and extensively debated here but a grab for a much larger share of humanity's untapped and unused wealth for the pursuit of BEO exploration, enjoyment, exploitation and eventual colonization. The HLV can be the most highly visible expression of that pursuit as well as being the most capable exponent of that desire.

Yep. Thank you Marsavian. Well said. The in-line SD-HLV and BLEO Orion will help us to take great care of the ISS, go back to the Moon, explore NEOs, and head off to Mars. These space vehicles will also encourage lots of active international participation in everything we do in space. The BLEO Orion and in-line SD-HLV are a great investment in the future of our species.

Cheers!
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Offline robertross

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Re: POLL: HLV/SLS/BEO Launch Vehicle Showdown ROUND ONE
« Reply #59 on: 10/12/2010 01:24 pm »

Probably all of Tuesday and go to Round 2 on Wednesday.

Seems a little soon to me, but that's just my opinion. I'd start round 2 maybe Friday, or better yet, 1 week later. Gives us something to blog (complain) about  :)

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