Scenario A: Initial R&D and early test flights2019-2021 3 year outlook as BFR goes proto & test flights5) Comsat revenue: over this time period it is an expense
IF profit after manufacturing & operations is $30M/flight, cash in = $690M<snip>Uses of Funds:1) Employees: SpaceX has ~7,000 employees. Burdened cost/employee (most are engineers & skilled technical) my guess $120K/employee. Total ~$840M/year2) Facilities: Includes 2.1) all buildings operational & lease payments and 2.2) construction of new Long Beach factory, McG test facilities, Boca & Cape launch control centers and pads. I have no idea about these costs. Placeholder guess $200M/year
Quote from: meekGee on 09/16/2018 03:51 pmIs there any evidence that BFR will require much larger workforce?SpaceX is done with Falcon, Merlin and Dragon development. Not will soon begin to ramp-down manufacturing.This is where more traditional companies idiotically start downsizing the engineering workforce. SpaceX won't.----That, plus I don't see how SpaceX today can't raise single-digit $B just by raising their hand. People will be lining up to be part of this."Those of us" that keep the skeptical snark on don't have to participate or agree."The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on"... This was true with F9-era snark, and is doubly true today.----https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_dogs_bark,_but_the_caravan_goes_onCuriously, this saying is likely of Turkish origin.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownThe Turkish phrase I think you are looking for is "Okuz altinda buzagi aranmaz. " which is roughly "you are to suspicious about what is happening" easy to be these days
Is there any evidence that BFR will require much larger workforce?SpaceX is done with Falcon, Merlin and Dragon development. Not will soon begin to ramp-down manufacturing.This is where more traditional companies idiotically start downsizing the engineering workforce. SpaceX won't.----That, plus I don't see how SpaceX today can't raise single-digit $B just by raising their hand. People will be lining up to be part of this."Those of us" that keep the skeptical snark on don't have to participate or agree."The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on"... This was true with F9-era snark, and is doubly true today.----https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_dogs_bark,_but_the_caravan_goes_onCuriously, this saying is likely of Turkish origin.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
I think the disparagement of earlier attempts to bring a discussion about financing into this thread were premature..Given Tesla’s approach to partially funding new cars with reservation deposits, I expect Monday’s announcement to also be a marketing pitch along the lines of “1 seat taken for $200million, 9 more available”.Just because Spacex can raise “unlimited” funds from investors doesn’t mean they will if they don’t have to. Why give up more ownership when you can fund development by selling seats to space years in advance?
Quote from: TripleSeven on 09/16/2018 05:05 pmQuote from: meekGee on 09/16/2018 03:51 pmIs there any evidence that BFR will require much larger workforce?SpaceX is done with Falcon, Merlin and Dragon development. Not will soon begin to ramp-down manufacturing.This is where more traditional companies idiotically start downsizing the engineering workforce. SpaceX won't.----That, plus I don't see how SpaceX today can't raise single-digit $B just by raising their hand. People will be lining up to be part of this."Those of us" that keep the skeptical snark on don't have to participate or agree."The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on"... This was true with F9-era snark, and is doubly true today.----https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_dogs_bark,_but_the_caravan_goes_onCuriously, this saying is likely of Turkish origin.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownThe Turkish phrase I think you are looking for is "Okuz altinda buzagi aranmaz. " which is roughly "you are to suspicious about what is happening" easy to be these days Nope, the phrase I was aiming for was the one I quoted... (Follow the link if you're into the cultural origin)Meanwhile, I can take your claim of "suspicion" at face value only when I see you apply the same level of suspicion and snark at the New Armstrong rocket (or SpaceShipTwo) threads. Until then, you're just barking...Fly safe...-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Could they be selling tickets for this mission at $200 million? Sure, that is a distinct possibility among many. I even think that is an interesting possibility.
Quote from: meekGee on 09/16/2018 05:22 pmQuote from: TripleSeven on 09/16/2018 05:05 pmQuote from: meekGee on 09/16/2018 03:51 pmIs there any evidence that BFR will require much larger workforce?SpaceX is done with Falcon, Merlin and Dragon development. Not will soon begin to ramp-down manufacturing.This is where more traditional companies idiotically start downsizing the engineering workforce. SpaceX won't.----That, plus I don't see how SpaceX today can't raise single-digit $B just by raising their hand. People will be lining up to be part of this."Those of us" that keep the skeptical snark on don't have to participate or agree."The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on"... This was true with F9-era snark, and is doubly true today.----https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/the_dogs_bark,_but_the_caravan_goes_onCuriously, this saying is likely of Turkish origin.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownThe Turkish phrase I think you are looking for is "Okuz altinda buzagi aranmaz. " which is roughly "you are to suspicious about what is happening" easy to be these days Nope, the phrase I was aiming for was the one I quoted... (Follow the link if you're into the cultural origin)Meanwhile, I can take your claim of "suspicion" at face value only when I see you apply the same level of suspicion and snark at the New Armstrong rocket (or SpaceShipTwo) threads. Until then, you're just barking...Fly safe...-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Downit is not important but its Arabic... four years in country and speak the language. the Turks have no saying like that at all...and thanks... that is our goal..safe flights
On another track SpaceX costs to develop a vehicle is about 1/10 th that of a NASA run development the such as the SLS/Orion. 10 year s at $2.5B per year is an least $25B putting SpaceX costs to develop a similar size vehicle at $2.5B and they will be able to do it in half the time for a year expenditure of $500M.
Quote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/16/2018 09:42 pmOn another track SpaceX costs to develop a vehicle is about 1/10 th that of a NASA run development the such as the SLS/Orion. 10 year s at $2.5B per year is an least $25B putting SpaceX costs to develop a similar size vehicle at $2.5B and they will be able to do it in half the time for a year expenditure of $500M.$2.5 Billion? Same cost as Crew/Cargo Dragon and 10 mT Falcon 9? Not bloody likely.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 09/17/2018 01:39 amQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/16/2018 09:42 pmOn another track SpaceX costs to develop a vehicle is about 1/10 th that of a NASA run development the such as the SLS/Orion. 10 year s at $2.5B per year is an least $25B putting SpaceX costs to develop a similar size vehicle at $2.5B and they will be able to do it in half the time for a year expenditure of $500M.$2.5 Billion? Same cost as Crew/Cargo Dragon and 10 mT Falcon 9? Not bloody likely."According to NASA's own independently verified numbers, SpaceX's development costs of both the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets were estimated at approximately US$390 million in total." https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/07/spacex-urges-lawmakers-to-commercialize-deep-space-exploration/...because one has NASA's detailed requirements (Dragon Crew), and the other didn't (or at least not much).So yeah, I do think SpaceX can get BFR, or at least a simplified uncrewed version, developed for no more than another $2.5b. Crewed portion could also be pretty cheap since they can just use Dragon's systems to start with and have literally tons and tons of mass to spare.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/17/2018 01:43 amQuote from: ncb1397 on 09/17/2018 01:39 amQuote from: oldAtlas_Eguy on 09/16/2018 09:42 pmOn another track SpaceX costs to develop a vehicle is about 1/10 th that of a NASA run development the such as the SLS/Orion. 10 year s at $2.5B per year is an least $25B putting SpaceX costs to develop a similar size vehicle at $2.5B and they will be able to do it in half the time for a year expenditure of $500M.$2.5 Billion? Same cost as Crew/Cargo Dragon and 10 mT Falcon 9? Not bloody likely."According to NASA's own independently verified numbers, SpaceX's development costs of both the Falcon 1 and Falcon 9 rockets were estimated at approximately US$390 million in total." https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/07/spacex-urges-lawmakers-to-commercialize-deep-space-exploration/...because one has NASA's detailed requirements (Dragon Crew), and the other didn't (or at least not much).So yeah, I do think SpaceX can get BFR, or at least a simplified uncrewed version, developed for no more than another $2.5b. Crewed portion could also be pretty cheap since they can just use Dragon's systems to start with and have literally tons and tons of mass to spare.So..10 t Falcon 9: $390 milliondragon cargo: $659 million(https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170008895.pdf figure 4)CCDev 2: $75 millionCCiCap: $460 millionCCtCap: $1206 millionTotal: $2.79 Billion
Yes, and?You forgot that the $390m included Falcon 1 dev costs.
Everything after included a bunch of NASA design requirements which is part of the reason the price is much higher. BFR doesn't have that.