Poll

CST-100 or Dragon 2? - Which of the two spacecraft will carry out the first successful CREWED test flight? (Successful defined as achieving one complete orbit and returning its crew unharmed back to Earth).

CST-100
26 (15.5%)
Dragon 2
142 (84.5%)

Total Members Voted: 168


Author Topic: CST-100 or Dragon 2 - Which will be the first successful CREWED test flight?  (Read 13361 times)

Offline Oersted

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Please note that this poll concerns the first CREWED test flight.

Other polls will deal with the first uncrewed flight and the first mission to the ISS.

Poll running for 60 days.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 02:43 am by gongora »

Offline Hog

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The term "crewed" might be appropriate.
Paul

Offline Oersted

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Would have used "crewed" but since I simultaneously put up another poll regarding "uncrewed" flight I figured that only two letters' difference between the subjects could lead to mistake.

Anyway, it is common usage for 'manned' to refer to both male and female crew.

Offline Phil Stooke

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"it is common usage"

Well, it was.  Now it's fading away.  Not a good excuse.  So - use crewed here and differentiate the other title a bit more by saying 'first successful test flight without a crew'.


Offline Patchouli

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Really tough call as this can easily go either way.
Spacex seems ahead as far as the rocket and reentry systems go but Boeing seems to have a better handle on the details.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Really tough call as this can easily go either way.
Spacex seems ahead as far as the rocket and reentry systems go but Boeing seems to have a better handle on the details.
Not details, paperwork.

Offline jbenton

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SpaceX has the cheaper, and more importantly, simpler craft. They also have more recent experience with capsules and space-worthy pressure-vehicles in general (both through the Dragon 1). Having a rocket built from the ground up to launch a payload with this exact OML helped them too, and they seem to be far ahead on LAS maturity. They're also probably going to fly the first uncrewed mission. For these reasons, I expect Dragon 2 to get crew up there first.

Boeing does know gov't contracts better than anyone else in the business, though (except for maybe LM and NG - but they're not competing). That could be important.

I voted for SpaceX, but I wouldn't be surprised if I'm wrong. Much can happen in five months and Cpt. Ferguson would really like to be first (not sure if that changes anything).
« Last Edit: 09/18/2018 09:52 am by jbenton »

Offline Oersted

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jbenton, why is the Dragon 2 simpler?

Offline jbenton

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jbenton, why is the Dragon 2 simpler?

Full disclosure: I am not an expert.

That being said, I was under the understanding that Dragon is simpler than Starliner and that people who actually are experts have said that, but I could be wrong.

That being said, part of it is just me "eyeballing" it. Now that I think about I don't really know at all. Dragon just has a minimalist vibe to it. In particular the trunk has the solar panels and that's about it. That of course has more to do with reusability than anything else.
Also, since Dragon is cheaper, I kind of off-hand assumed that it was easier to design, develop and build. No doubt that Starliner is larger than Dragon, though.

Starliner's LAS is probably no more complicated than Dragon's.

Now I'm curious: does anyone know which design is simpler.

I still believe that Dragon will fly with crew first, but as Patchouli said, it'll be a close call. Both companies have a design to be proud of.

Offline whitelancer64

Yes, please change "manned" in the question to "crewed"

It's a gender neutral term, it doesn't take away from or add to the scope of the question, and it hurts NO ONE AT ALL for our language to be inclusive. It may even be helpful, since there's no implication of excluding women. Frankly I think it's even more important because there IS, in fact, a woman involved in this context. Sunita Williams.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline Rocket Science

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CST-100 with Fergie to "capture the flag" he left at ISS when he commanded the final Shuttle flight STS-135. NASA will milk the PR value...
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Offline Coastal Ron

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I voted Dragon 2 will carry crew first.

My reasoning is based on the progress that SpaceX and Boeing have showed, and not based on other factors (i.e. who I wish would be first). More specifically, the engine test anomaly that the Starliner had in June is going to give SpaceX some breathing room for their first flight.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Alpha Control

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Yes, please change "manned" in the question to "crewed"

It's a gender neutral term, it doesn't take away from or add to the scope of the question, and it hurts NO ONE AT ALL for our language to be inclusive. It may even be helpful, since there's no implication of excluding women. Frankly I think it's even more important because there IS, in fact, a woman involved in this context. Sunita Williams.

I respectfully disagree.  The term "manned" or "unmanned" for spaceflight was perfectly fine - until we were told it wasn't.  And who made that decision, anyway?  I believe that language is fluid, and can change over time with the consent of the users.  To me, the term "manned" never implied gender, it implied human beings .  It is a concise, one-syllable phrase, that means exactly what it says - operated and flown by human beings. Period.

There are gender-neutral examples of a manned-based phrase that are in active use right now. We all know about NOTAMs - typically issued when temporary airspace restrictions are put in place for pilots. "NOTAM" means "Notice to Airmen". Does it therefore only apply to male pilots?  Of course not.

The U.S. Navy has many titles for enlisted personnel that have the word 'man' in them.  Midshipman, Seaman, Yeoman, etc. The titles originated in the days when Navy personnel were only male. But today's Navy reclaimed the titles, and made it policy that the titles now encompass both genders.

The U.S. military in general operates UAVs - Unmanned Aerial Vehicles - aircraft designed to be flown without pilots. I'm not aware of any concerns about the naming convention for these vehicles.

So let's take the phrase "manned" back, and make it mean "operated and flown by human beings" once again. Why not? - we ALL own the language.
Space launches attended:
Antares/Cygnus ORB-D1 Wallops Island, VA Sept 2013 | STS-123 KSC, FL March 2008 | SpaceShipOne Mojave, CA June 2004

Offline Oersted

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Yes, please change "manned" in the question to "crewed"

It's a gender neutral term, it doesn't take away from or add to the scope of the question, and it hurts NO ONE AT ALL for our language to be inclusive. It may even be helpful, since there's no implication of excluding women. Frankly I think it's even more important because there IS, in fact, a woman involved in this context. Sunita Williams.

'Manned' doesn't hurt anyone except for those who want to be hurt. It obviously refers to 'Man' as in humanity/mankind.

I didn't change the thread title, btw, a mod did.

Offline whitelancer64

I don't think "manned" was ever really OK.

A few years ago I might have agreed with you, but gender issues that have been suppressed for a very long time are getting more and more attention.

"Manned" implicitly excludes women. It sets the tone that women aren't good enough to be astronauts, scientists, etc... There's a huge problem with women not being well represented in nearly every field of scientific study. There's a major gender gap in employment in almost every profession, along with a significant pay gap. Women are clearly not operating on a level playing field and never have been.

It does you no harm to include women in your language. It certainly does harm to exclude them.

For the record, I do think such archaic / implicitly biased verbiage should be corrected. Re: UAV, I've seen the term "Remotely Piloted Aerial Vehicle (RPAV)" or something similar, used to avoid the gender bias.

The mods here are excellent, thank goodness.
« Last Edit: 09/14/2018 09:01 pm by whitelancer64 »
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline RotoSequence

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I firmly believe that the obsession with siloing everyone and everything into its own box is the reason there's so much divisive and combative discourse in the modern era. Trying to remove "man" as a suffix because its considered different and exclusionary of women is a prime example of that. It's a great way to create as many different kinds of "us" and "them" as possible.  :-\
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 12:06 am by RotoSequence »

Offline Lar

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Let's not focus on the title so much please. (wasn't me that changed it but I would have)
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Offline Exastro

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I'm betting D2 makes the first MANNED flight for reasons already given by earlier posters.

I'm hoping neither vehicle ever makes a CREWED flight, since if the people inside one of these highly automated vehicles ever need to serve as crew it probably means something has gone badly wrong.
« Last Edit: 09/15/2018 02:49 pm by Exastro »

Offline Comga

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CST-100 with Fergie to "capture the flag" he left at ISS when he commanded the final Shuttle flight STS-135. NASA will milk the PR value...

I voted for Dragon, but have long harbored a suspicion that NASA would put their thumbs on the scale to get this outcome.
Perhaps this “symmetry” with Ferguson is an indication of which way NASA thinks the “race” will go.
(Any cynicism about NASA is hard earned on my part.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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CST-100 with Fergie to "capture the flag" he left at ISS when he commanded the final Shuttle flight STS-135. NASA will milk the PR value...

I voted for Dragon, but have long harbored a suspicion that NASA would put their thumbs on the scale to get this outcome.
Perhaps this “symmetry” with Ferguson is an indication of which way NASA thinks the “race” will go.
(Any cynicism about NASA is hard earned on my part.)
Thinks, or will ensure?... This fan's perception is that there are many within NASA who have favored Boeing all along.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

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