They both have the right approach given their goals.Blue's goal seems to be to "Have millions of people living in a working in space." So they are heavily focused on lower the cost of HSF. Suborbital is the only large enough market to be able to have enough people fly to realize cost savings. Then once they have lowered the cost with suborbital, they can start doing orbital tourism, and because of the lower costs due to the suborbital market maturing, there will be a big enough market to be able to mature and lower the cost yet again. Launching payloads will not be that effective since humans make the problem 2X more complex.Musk wants to go to Mars. (note how I say Musk not Spacex-I have no guarantee that all of Spacex's owners share that passion) To do this mostly he needs to be able to launch tons of cargo cheaply. So he is working on that problem first. He won't need to launch nearly as many people to achieve his goal, but will need more energetic launches. So he has gone down the path of make it big first, then put people on it. Makes total sense.Personally, I think they must secretly be in cahoots, because they way things are going Blue is working on solving one half of the puzzle while Spacex is working on the other half. (of course, there is some overlap, as seen yesterday) Then in 10-15 years when they get to the really tough parts that are no longer overlapping they will be in the perfect position to help each other out.
Cahoots, well, that may be an interesting possibility. BFR really opens up possibilities. What if there are multiple BFR's on the horizon?
I suspect Blue will eventually build a BFR. It won't be for many years though. As for the dragon capsule, it is reusable, it's just not contracted for that I believe. They have done reusabillity testing on some of them.
Quote from: The Amazing Catstronaut on 05/04/2016 11:36 pmI suspect Blue will eventually build a BFR. It won't be for many years though. As for the dragon capsule, it is reusable, it's just not contracted for that I believe. They have done reusabillity testing on some of them.You think? I think Blue will start developing its own FalconHeavy as soon as its first orbital rocket is working. Their first orbital rocket will likely be in the F9R class - it'll be reusable from the start, and it will have comparable lift capacity as Falcon9. Then after Blue Heavy is working, then they'll go for their own SuperHeavy comparable to MCT.As a businessman, Bezos knows the value of economies of scale, and while he won't be fixated on Mars in particular, I think he'll want a SuperHeavy transport to the Moon. He keeps talking about building the "basic infrastructure", analogous to pre-existing phone and fiber lines which were the backbone for his internet business.To build heavy-duty infrastructure, you want very heavy lift capacity. And that then sets the scene for all those other small businesses to access the infrastructure and make use of it, to allow a space economy, which is what Bezos wants.I wonder whether if Blue is thinking in terms of multi-core modularity for scalability, a la Angara, or UMLV, or FalconHeavy.
You either go with heavy lift launchers or reusable launchers. Don't need both for space infrastructure. You only do both in one launcher if you want to plop a city on Mars.Also according the NSF tea readers. The first Blue orbital capable launcher will be more likely to be in the Delta II class.
You either go with heavy lift launchers or reusable launchers. Don't need both for space infrastructure. You only do both in one launcher if you want to plop a city on Mars.
Also according the NSF tea readers. The first Blue orbital capable launcher will be more likely to be in the Delta II class.
Quote from: sanman on 05/05/2016 04:45 amQuote from: The Amazing Catstronaut on 05/04/2016 11:36 pmI suspect Blue will eventually build a BFR. It won't be for many years though. As for the dragon capsule, it is reusable, it's just not contracted for that I believe. They have done reusabillity testing on some of them.You think? I think Blue will start developing its own FalconHeavy as soon as its first orbital rocket is working. Their first orbital rocket will likely be in the F9R class - it'll be reusable from the start, and it will have comparable lift capacity as Falcon9. Then after Blue Heavy is working, then they'll go for their own SuperHeavy comparable to MCT.As a businessman, Bezos knows the value of economies of scale, and while he won't be fixated on Mars in particular, I think he'll want a SuperHeavy transport to the Moon. He keeps talking about building the "basic infrastructure", analogous to pre-existing phone and fiber lines which were the backbone for his internet business.To build heavy-duty infrastructure, you want very heavy lift capacity. And that then sets the scene for all those other small businesses to access the infrastructure and make use of it, to allow a space economy, which is what Bezos wants.I wonder whether if Blue is thinking in terms of multi-core modularity for scalability, a la Angara, or UMLV, or FalconHeavy.You either go with heavy lift launchers or reusable launchers. Don't need both for space infrastructure. You only do both in one launcher if you want to plop a city on Mars.Also according the NSF tea readers. The first Blue orbital capable launcher will be more likely to be in the Delta II class.
IMHO Jon is right. A F9R class vehicle that deliver 6-7 passengers to LEO for 5-$10m a seat should be enough to create a new market. The same RLV could also be used for supplying a fuel depot, this would enable BLEO HSF eg moon. As market develops introduce reusable US and larger RLVs that can lower launch costs even more.
Quote from: TrevorMonty on 05/05/2016 09:05 pmIMHO Jon is right. A F9R class vehicle that deliver 6-7 passengers to LEO for 5-$10m a seat should be enough to create a new market. The same RLV could also be used for supplying a fuel depot, this would enable BLEO HSF eg moon. As market develops introduce reusable US and larger RLVs that can lower launch costs even more.With a full RLV, I don't think you need an F9R class vehicle to deliver 6-7 people to LEO...~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 05/05/2016 09:46 pmQuote from: TrevorMonty on 05/05/2016 09:05 pmIMHO Jon is right. A F9R class vehicle that deliver 6-7 passengers to LEO for 5-$10m a seat should be enough to create a new market. The same RLV could also be used for supplying a fuel depot, this would enable BLEO HSF eg moon. As market develops introduce reusable US and larger RLVs that can lower launch costs even more.With a full RLV, I don't think you need an F9R class vehicle to deliver 6-7 people to LEO...~JonNo, you likely need something bigger. Unless you think 'Blue' is sitting on a real propulsion breakthrough that will allow a fully reusable launch vehicle to deliver ~10 mt to LEO (what you'll need for a 6-7 people spacecraft) with a LV that is smaller than F9R.
No, you likely need something bigger. Unless you think 'Blue' is sitting on a real propulsion breakthrough that will allow a fully reusable launch vehicle to deliver ~10 mt to LEO (what you'll need for a 6-7 people spacecraft) with a LV that is smaller than F9R.
Quote from: Lars-J on 05/06/2016 12:19 amNo, you likely need something bigger. Unless you think 'Blue' is sitting on a real propulsion breakthrough that will allow a fully reusable launch vehicle to deliver ~10 mt to LEO (what you'll need for a 6-7 people spacecraft) with a LV that is smaller than F9R.I guess my point is that most of the mass in a traditional crewed spacecraft are in the very things you need to make an RLV work in the first place. If you design a crewed RLV right, my guess is you can get the mass per person much lower than 1.5mT each...~Jon
I should also point out though, that the approach Blue Origin has taken to-date has been more of a traditional capsule with launch escape system. The capsule on New Shepard seats 6 and weighs ~8000lb, though would likely be heavier for an orbital version. I think we're way too early in the age of the reusable space vehicles for most of the big players to have really thought through how to make passenger carrying full RLVs work best.~Jon