I'm far from an expert but I took a look at the New Glenn with the 7 meter fairing and assuming each OneWeb satellite is a 1 meter cube at 150 kg, it appears to me that the New Glenn could launch about 240 OneWeb satellites to Leo. Not sure what each launch will cost but I assume it will be less than $100M. That looks to me like the most efficient way to launch OneWeb satellites, particularly the addition of 1260 satellites to LEO pending FCC approval. Would appreciate comment!
Our new Automated Potting Machine in Titusville, Florida, U.S., is up and running and busy as a bee placing inserts into honeycomb panels https://www.ruag.com/en/products-services/space/spacecraft/satellite-structures/honeycomb-panels-demand …
Is this for OneWeb?Tweet from RUAGQuoteOur new Automated Potting Machine in Titusville, Florida, U.S., is up and running and busy as a bee placing inserts into honeycomb panels https://www.ruag.com/en/products-services/space/spacecraft/satellite-structures/honeycomb-panels-demand …(there is a video embedded in the Tweet)
OneWeb, Arianespace target December-February for first Soyuz launchby Caleb Henry — August 27, 2018WASHINGTON — The first launch of OneWeb’s low-Earth-orbit broadband constellation could still happen by year’s end, but may slip into early 2019, according to officials from OneWeb and launch provider Arianespace.
“Arianespace had an urgent customer need, and being good partners we can move around a bit, but we are hoping to get up as early in our launch window as possible,”
QuoteOneWeb, Arianespace target December-February for first Soyuz launchby Caleb Henry — August 27, 2018WASHINGTON — The first launch of OneWeb’s low-Earth-orbit broadband constellation could still happen by year’s end, but may slip into early 2019, according to officials from OneWeb and launch provider Arianespace.https://spacenews.com/oneweb-arianespace-target-december-february-for-first-soyuz-launch/Reason:Quote“Arianespace had an urgent customer need, and being good partners we can move around a bit, but we are hoping to get up as early in our launch window as possible,”
by Peter B. de Selding | Sep 11, 2018OneWeb on Sept. 7 announced that CEO Eric Beranger, an Airbus veteran named to the OneWeb post in July 2016, had been named chief operating offer and that Adrian Steckel, up to now CEO of crytocurrrency trader Uphold of San Francisco, would be OneWeb’s new CEO.Industry officials said privately that Beranger is a better fit for OneWeb as COO, a position that will allow him to focus on the service’s development rather than having to beat the hustings to raise capital....Industry officials have said in recent months that Bpifrance wants to see more customer commitments to the OneWeb system, which is designed to provide broadband connectivity worldwide to a wide swath of consumer and and industry users.These same officials said Bpifrance was now setting fresh conditions on OneWeb in return for financing and that these are proving difficult to meet.OneWeb’s total system costs are also an issue. The company began by talking about a system with a price tag of $3.5 billion to $5 billion. In its Sept. 7 announcement, which was curiously worded for a company losing its CEO, Uphold referred to OneWeb as a $6 billion system before removing that figure 48 hours after issuing its first statement.
Oneweb already has firm launch contracts for their initial constellation, and there is no indication launches will be a problem.
You can't seem to grasp the concept of a contract. Oneweb has already been paying on the Soyuz deal for a couple years. Launch providers don't get all the money after the launch, a lot of it is upfront.
Let's say, /at least/ $50 million per Soyuz. That's $1050 million (in line with estimates of over $1b for the Soyuz part).39 LauncherOne launches. Those are over $12 million apiece, let's make it a cool $500 million.Plus 5 New Glenn. Who knows how much those cost. Maybe $100 million? $150 million? That's $750 million.We're looking at somewhere north of $2.2b just in launch costs. If I were their bank, I'd ask seriously why they're doing 21 Soyuz launches for at least $50 million apiece at ~6 tons per launch when they could do half as many Falcon 9 launches (since reusable F9 payload capacity and payload fairing capacity is about twice Soyuz) for about the same price per launch. And I'd question what the point of the LauncherOne launches are, since proper spare management could eliminate the need for so many smallsat launches.The New Glenn launches seem to be for the later upgrades to the constellation, and are pretty reasonable given the large payload, but the Soyuz launches are very early and account for over a billion in early capital. That's $500 million more than is required, and it is early capital as well. I'd have serious questions about that.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/13/2018 02:38 amLet's say, /at least/ $50 million per Soyuz. That's $1050 million (in line with estimates of over $1b for the Soyuz part).39 LauncherOne launches. Those are over $12 million apiece, let's make it a cool $500 million.Plus 5 New Glenn. Who knows how much those cost. Maybe $100 million? $150 million? That's $750 million.We're looking at somewhere north of $2.2b just in launch costs. If I were their bank, I'd ask seriously why they're doing 21 Soyuz launches for at least $50 million apiece at ~6 tons per launch when they could do half as many Falcon 9 launches (since reusable F9 payload capacity and payload fairing capacity is about twice Soyuz) for about the same price per launch. And I'd question what the point of the LauncherOne launches are, since proper spare management could eliminate the need for so many smallsat launches.The New Glenn launches seem to be for the later upgrades to the constellation, and are pretty reasonable given the large payload, but the Soyuz launches are very early and account for over a billion in early capital. That's $500 million more than is required, and it is early capital as well. I'd have serious questions about that.Even the Atlas V 551 would be cost competitive though the main argument in it's favor is reliability which should reduce insurance costs.
Quote from: Patchouli on 09/13/2018 04:00 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 09/13/2018 02:38 amLet's say, /at least/ $50 million per Soyuz. That's $1050 million (in line with estimates of over $1b for the Soyuz part).39 LauncherOne launches. Those are over $12 million apiece, let's make it a cool $500 million.Plus 5 New Glenn. Who knows how much those cost. Maybe $100 million? $150 million? That's $750 million.We're looking at somewhere north of $2.2b just in launch costs. If I were their bank, I'd ask seriously why they're doing 21 Soyuz launches for at least $50 million apiece at ~6 tons per launch when they could do half as many Falcon 9 launches (since reusable F9 payload capacity and payload fairing capacity is about twice Soyuz) for about the same price per launch. And I'd question what the point of the LauncherOne launches are, since proper spare management could eliminate the need for so many smallsat launches.The New Glenn launches seem to be for the later upgrades to the constellation, and are pretty reasonable given the large payload, but the Soyuz launches are very early and account for over a billion in early capital. That's $500 million more than is required, and it is early capital as well. I'd have serious questions about that.Even the Atlas V 551 would be cost competitive though the main argument in it's favor is reliability which should reduce insurance costs.If this is correct, insurance on the launches and satellite operations is around $200 million initially. Using Atlas (or Falcon 9) could save as much as half of that in insurance alone. But the total initial deployment cost (launch+insurance) is still around $1.9 billion on Soyuz and $1.4 billion on Atlas V (assuming 4% insurance, 8 launches at 17 tonnes net payload, $180 million each, including the payload dispenser).6 tonnes for $67 million doesn't seem like a very good deal, but it does sound about right for Soyuz. http://www.gcasummit.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2015/08/2015_06_Satellite-Monthly.pdfF9R could do the deployment for about $700 million, assuming 11 launches at $60 million per launch including payload dispenser, 12 tonnes net payload, and 5% insurance.
Conclusion. A step in the right direction, but a long road ahead. While the recent OneWeb announcements answered anumber of questions regarding the company’s operational plans, they also raised a number of vexing questions that are yetto be resolved, including:Project cost. Despite earlier claims that the OneWeb constellation would only cost between $1.5-2.0 billion, webelieve the project will cost in excess of $3 billion assuming no cost overruns or launch failures.
The initial deployment is on Soyuz, not LauncherOne. The year that contract was signed (which was only 3 years ago) SpaceX had 6 successful launches, and the year after that SpaceX had 8 successful launches with a big backlog left to work through.