With both NASA and China actively preparing the technology for a Mars sample return as early as the 2020s, this seems like a good new topic.Popular Mechanics just published a nice, but non-technical, overview of both agencies plans and probable approaches.http://www.popularmechanics.com/space/moon-mars/a14506608/united-states-china-racing-first-sample-from-mars/
You know something? There is a dedicated NASA effort to return samples from Mars. There are presentations and plans and all that. People doing real technology development. Hardware being tested.But then I come to NSF and I see that you guys turn every discussion into SpaceX, and you know what? It shows how incredibly clueless you are about what is actually going on. And you don't even realize it. There's really no point in discussing it here, because you're all living in your little fantasy worlds.
There is a dedicated NASA effort to return samples from Mars. There are presentations and plans and all that. People doing real technology development. Hardware being tested.
You know something? There is a dedicated NASA effort to return samples from Mars. There are presentations and plans and all that. People doing real technology development. Hardware being tested.
But then I come to NSF and I see that you guys turn every discussion into SpaceX, and you know what? It shows how incredibly clueless you are about what is actually going on. And you don't even realize it. There's really no point in discussing it here, because you're all living in your little fantasy worlds.
Ten years ago if anyone had thought that Elon Musk would be proposing a massive rocket and spaceship to move 100 humans to Mars on each trip, that would have seemed to border on fantasy. But over the past ten years a lot has happened in the private aerospace field, and it's impossible to ignore that.It now looks possible that SpaceX could get to Mars.
BTW, NASA has cut metal, run tests, and is learning on prototypes for the crucial components of its sample return.
Right now those plans exist on PowerPoint slides. When they start cutting metal, running tests, learning from failures on their prototypes, I'll start to believe -- and add a decade. Look at how much the Falcon Heavy has slipped because -- as Musk said -- it was harder than they had thought. But they have hardware and so I believe they will bring it to flight. We will see when their next plans reach this stage.BTW, NASA has cut metal, run tests, and is learning on prototypes for the crucial components of its sample return.
But this whole SpaceX vs NASA regarding MSR is misleading, since SpaceX has no interest in MSR, nor do they want to compete with NASA on MSR. What SpaceX may provide is cheap transport of significant mass to Mars, either to TMI via FH or to surface via BFR, depending on how much risk you're willing to take. Would this affect MSR plans? I don't know, but it seems to me this is worth discussing instead of just dismissing as fantasy land.
Even if a Mars sample return was funded in the next year after a successful sample-stow mission of Mars 2020 (around Nov 2020 at Mars), in 2021, it's hard seeing it likely to be launched in 5 years from then, or 2026.It is at least plausible that before 2021, BFR/BFS will have demonstrated significant enough capability that it makes plans for returning five kilos (or whatever) to earth look utterly comical.(If funded in 2021, and launched around 2026, earth return for a sample mission would be in 2028).At the very least, barring total failure of BFR (say several pad and orbital reentry losses) at that time - 2021 - anyone funding such a mission would need to take a very careful look at risks and potential rewards of doing a one-off probe, or getting some tons of material back on a returning BFS.
NASA is thinking of flying in the mid-2020s, and so must commit to a launch vehicle early in that decades.
But then I come to NSF and I see that you guys turn every discussion into SpaceX...
Quote from: Blackstar on 12/31/2017 09:29 pmBut then I come to NSF and I see that you guys turn every discussion into SpaceX...I'd like to see the mods rigorously enforce a no-SpaceX policy on threads that clearly have nothing to do with SpaceX. Although maybe it's just too late for that, and this site should quit pretending that it can serve as a forum for anything except SpaceX.
If you believe in ISRU, earth return gets rather better of course.