Major damage to PU-6 at Baikonur

[russianhalo117]

Guys, I do not see this launch happening anytime soon.

Time to suggest a trampoline?

Soyuz and Progress are launch vehicle agnostic.

[ChrisC]

The firemen all running around the flame trench at minute 1:58 need "Yakety Sax" playing in the background,. But I suppose what the heck else would anyone do?!

Please use the quoting feature, when referring to prior content.

In this case, I find no such short videos in this thread, so I'm guessing he meant 1h58m, which would be a reference to the video that I posted above and that I provided a precise time jump for.  I don't see see any firemen running around, but on rewatch I did notice what appeared to be sprays of water onto the structure, coming from fire crews out of sight.

[cohberg]

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1994420759138107881/photo/2

[russianhalo117]

Moderator note:
All geopolitical discussions on this forum are restricted solely to the Space Policy section. Now let's keep the geopolitical opinions out of this thread, keep it classy, and get back on the topic. Failure to do so will result in moderation of posters found in contempt.


zubenelgenubi edit: Space Policy splinter post here: Major damage to Baikonur Site 31/6: policy discussion

[russianhalo117]

Article: https://www.russianspaceweb.com/baikonur_r7_31.html

Unofficially, violations of operational procedures, stemming from increasingly scarce maintenance of the facility in the past few years, were blamed for the collapse of the structure. ... A failure to install a special stopper into position to secure the mobile service platform inside its shelter during the launch could be the culprit ... According to another rumor, the mobile platform was not properly secured in its underground shelter before launch, which let the blast wave from the rocket exhaust pull it off its guide rails into the flame trench.

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1994391764476866942?s=19

mod edit: added article link and quote

[Jeff Lerner]

Based on the debris pictures I’m going with what someone suggested up thread…I’m betting a lot of of the parts can be reused to build the structure…especially those components at the top of the heap.

[lightleviathan]

Guys, I do not see this launch happening anytime soon.

Time to suggest a trampoline?

Soyuz and Progress are launch vehicle agnostic.

Theoretically, they could launch on Soyuz-5 next year but I don't know how feasible that is.

[Satori]

Moderators note:

Please, lets keep the forum on topic. Any post with any political significance will be deleted!


zubenelgenubi edit: Space Policy splinter post here: Major damage to Baikonur Site 31/6: policy discussion

[StraumliBlight]

Ars Technica: Before a Soyuz launch Thursday someone forgot to secure a 20-ton service platform [Nov 28]

The damage will therefore test the current leaders of Russia. How committed are they to the International Space Station partnership with NASA? Before, they were willing to play out the string to 2030 and the end of the station’s lifetime, but that required minimal investment in new capabilities. In fact, Russia recently cut the number of crewed Soyuz missions to the station from four every two years down to three, to save money. Now they must devote significant resources to the Soyuz program critical to the ISS.

[...]

Thursday was the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and so far NASA has not commented on the implications of damage to Site 31 in Kazakhstan.

However one source familiar with the agency’s relationship with Russia said there are multiple concerns. In the long-term, as Manber said, this will test Russia’s commitment to the partnership. But in the near-term there are concerns about the lack of Progress launches.

Not only does this cargo vehicle bring supplies to the Russian segment of the station, it is used as a primary means to reboost the space station’s altitude. It also services the Russian thruster attitude control system which works alongside the US control moment gyroscopes to maintain the station’s attitude and orientation. Notably, the Russian control system “desaturates” the US gyroscopes by removing their excess angular momentum.

[Tywin]

I'm really glad that Dragon has demonstrated the ability to reboost ISS.

Cygnus too.

[DanClemmensen]

I'm really glad that Dragon has demonstrated the ability to reboost ISS.

We know a Dragon at Harmony forward can apply axial force for reboost. I'm less certain about CMG desaturation, which requires applying the right kind of angular acceleration. Does anyone here know? My crude mental model says that a Dragon at harmony zenith can do it if ISS is oriented properly, but I do not trust my mental model.

[Eric Hedman]

I'm really glad that Dragon has demonstrated the ability to reboost ISS.

We know a Dragon at Harmony forward can apply axial force for reboost. I'm less certain about CMG desaturation, which requires applying the right kind of angular acceleration. Does anyone here know? My crude mental model says that a Dragon at harmony zenith can do it if ISS is oriented properly, but I do not trust my mental model.

I suspect NASA will be doing some mathematical modeling very quickly to see what is possible.

[AmigaClone]

Has there been any indication that the Russian space agency might consider modernizing/reactivating Gagarin's Start?

That is a retired launch complex in Baikonur that historically was used for crewed launches.

[russianhalo117]

Has there been any indication that the Russian space agency might consider modernizing/reactivating Gagarin's Start?

That is a retired launch complex in Baikonur that historically was used for crewed launches.

The money doesn't exist for a rocket family scheduled to be phased out by the Soyuz-5 launcher family. They even tried to entice Middle East Sovereign Wealth Funds, their governments and their royal families to pay for a new legacy launcher version and upgrade their pads starting with LC1/5. 1/5 along with every other inactive pad is mothballed without caretaker crews resulting in their underground infrastructure flooding with irreparable damage from corrosion, rusting, and freeze/thaw cycles along with above ground infrastructurebecoming increasinglyunsafe i.e. N1/Energia and Proton cosmodrome sites/complexes collapsing and being so far gone that it was cost prohibitive to convert to the Angara family including the likewise cancelled Angara-A7 variant that would have used the Site 110 pads.

[ulm_atms]

Eric Berger
@SciGuySpace

Replying to
@SciGuySpace
Crazy to think about, but if there’s any emergency on the ISS for the time being, literally every responsibility falls on SpaceX:

Crew: Dragon
Cargo: Dragon and Cygnus (launches on Falcon 9)
Reboosts: Dragon and Cygnus
Rescue missions: Dragon

Yep, they built a pretty nice trampoline didn't they? 

Sorry...couldn't help it.

Does anyone have a list (or point me to it) of all the things the platform provided for Soyuz?

[zubenelgenubi]

I'm really glad that Dragon has demonstrated the ability to reboost ISS.

Cygnus too.

We know a Dragon at Harmony forward can apply axial force for reboost. I'm less certain about CMG desaturation, which requires applying the right kind of angular acceleration. Does anyone here know? My crude mental model says that a Dragon at harmony zenith can do it if ISS is oriented properly, but I do not trust my mental model.

I suspect NASA will be doing some mathematical modeling very quickly to see what is possible.

I suspect such contingency plans already exist.

See splinter thread and discuss there: What surge capability does SpaceX have with Cargo Dragon?

IMO they can just cobble together some scaffolding for the technical crew to walk on and...<snip>

This wouldn't be pretty and but it likely could work for a few launches a year until they have a better replacement.

It's mostly *just* an access platform, fundamentally. People are overthinking it when they mention using other pads.

I suspect such contingency plans already exist.

[zubenelgenubi]

Moderator: Just to be absolutely, crystal clear.

zubenelgenubi edit: Space Policy splinter thread here: Major damage to Baikonur Site 31/6: policy discussion

Moderator note:
All geopolitical discussions on this forum are restricted solely to the Space Policy section. Now let's keep the geopolitical opinions out of this thread, keep it classy, and get back on the topic. Failure to do so will result in moderation of posters found in contempt.


zubenelgenubi edit: Space Policy splinter post here: Major damage to Baikonur Site 31/6: policy discussion

Moderators note:

Please, lets keep the forum on topic. Any post with any political significance will be deleted!


zubenelgenubi edit: Space Policy splinter post here: Major damage to Baikonur Site 31/6: policy discussion

[catdlr]

Based on these images, the damage seems to have happened after the launch. There is no flame damage visible on any of the metal.

https://twitter.com/RussianSpaceWeb/status/1994456367436849173

Anatoly Zak
@RussianSpaceWeb
Probably clearest views so far of the collapsed service platform at Site 31 in Baikonur:

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/katlinegrey/status/1994420759138107881

Katya Pavlushchenko
@katlinegrey
New photos of the damaged launch pad at Site 31 of Baikonur Kosmodrome were published in Telegram channels and on Novosti Kosmonavtiki forum. Sad to see it like this.

[catdlr]

Moderator Note: (now there are three moderation notices)

Let us continue to focus on the physical damage, Russian news, sources related to that, and any reconstruction updates we can obtain. There should be no discussion of alternatives for resupplying the ISS until the joint ISS-Russian team develops a plan. Until then, avoid speculation or discussion about alternative launch providers.

There is enough information here to support this thread. I also suggest adding 'Reconstruction' to the title if that decision is made. For now, the focus remains on identifying and understanding the damage. Let's give the Russians time to consider their options.

Appreciate your assistance. 

Tony