Author Topic: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)  (Read 49663 times)

Offline Tywin

« Last Edit: 07/11/2025 11:46 pm by gongora »
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Offline trimeta

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #1 on: 07/11/2025 11:20 pm »
What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

Offline Tywin

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

Well I only copy the Rocket Lab thread, because for me make sense.
« Last Edit: 07/11/2025 11:27 pm by Tywin »
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Offline Tywin

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

IF they going public, they will have money for new vehicle, maybe a new lander, new space tug, or future evolution of Eclipse...
« Last Edit: 07/11/2025 11:28 pm by Tywin »
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Offline trimeta

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #4 on: 07/12/2025 12:54 am »
What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

Well I only copy the Rocket Lab thread, because for me make sense.

The Rocket Lab thread was named that way because they announced that they were going public and developing Neutron at the same time. That thread was initially about both financial discussion and Neutron discussion. When Neutron discussion was split out, the "(financial discussion)" suffix was added to clarify that the original thread would only be for finances.

Blindly copying the Rocket Lab title without understanding its history wasn't a good idea.

Offline lightleviathan

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #5 on: 07/12/2025 01:43 am »
Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

Offline Tywin

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

Why?
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Offline sstli2

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #7 on: 07/12/2025 03:04 pm »
Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

Offline DC_Spaceguy

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #8 on: 07/12/2025 10:33 pm »
Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

AE Industrial wants a return on their investment, which they'll get with an IPO and offloading their shares to the public. Looks like they have  ~6 month lockup period so they won't be able to dump their shares until 6 months after the IPO

Relatedly, I expected them to merge Firefly and York at some point before an IPO. Would have been good to diversify their revenues a bit more. York's been doing good with their SDA work.
« Last Edit: 07/12/2025 10:35 pm by DC_Spaceguy »

Offline TrevorMonty

Rocket lab weekly guys discuss Firefly later half of video.
I'm like them, wish Firefly well but think they aren't worth risk at this stage.

https://www.youtube.com/live/h2ghA12idLA?si=n-2Ho8rny4zoi89g

Offline Tywin

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

AE Industrial wants a return on their investment, which they'll get with an IPO and offloading their shares to the public. Looks like they have  ~6 month lockup period so they won't be able to dump their shares until 6 months after the IPO

Relatedly, I expected them to merge Firefly and York at some point before an IPO.
Would have been good to diversify their revenues a bit more. York's been doing good with their SDA work.


Yeah I expected the same, maybe happend later, like Redwire and Edge, and both are from AE Industrial.
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Offline Tywin

We have now the valuation:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/firefly-aerospace-seeks-55-billion-valuation-ipo-us-space-race-heats-up-2025-07-28/

600 million in cash for the company is very good, for the investor in the other side, is too high IMHO.
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Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #12 on: 07/28/2025 06:39 pm »
I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.

Offline TrevorMonty

I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.
Plus 1 from 1 successful moon landings.

Offline Tywin

I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.

They need to improve the Alpha cadence and success a lot...and show good progress with Eclipse.
« Last Edit: 07/28/2025 07:02 pm by Tywin »
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Offline ShinodaChan

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #15 on: 07/28/2025 07:23 pm »
We have now the valuation:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/firefly-aerospace-seeks-55-billion-valuation-ipo-us-space-race-heats-up-2025-07-28/

600 million in cash for the company is very good, for the investor in the other side, is too high IMHO.

$35-39 a share? Heck no, not even close. They're looking at $30 at best, more realistically the low to mid 20s. Blue Ghost is one thing, but the poor track record of Alpha + the dubious nature of their other projects (Eclipse notwithstanding) puts them in a gray zone.
« Last Edit: 07/28/2025 07:23 pm by ShinodaChan »

Offline Tywin

IPO this week.
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Offline Tywin

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Offline sstli2

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #18 on: 08/07/2025 02:59 pm »
My cynical take is that RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, and now FLY are getting propped up by amateur (or delusional) retail investors who see SpaceX's success and think that this handful of publicly-traded names serve as a good enough proxy for space sector exposure.

This IPO values Firefly at ~6B, which if we use a simple perpetuity calc, and a ~8% rate of return, implies ~500m of profit (not revenue). Their annual revenue is ~70m, their net profit probably negative.

"New space" may be the next tech bubble

Offline catdlr

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #19 on: 08/07/2025 04:14 pm »
Quote
Welcoming Firefly Aerospace to the @NasdaqExchange Opening Bell.

https://twitter.com/NasdaqExchange/status/1953445716837159213
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Offline Tywin

70$ now :o
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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #21 on: 08/07/2025 06:05 pm »
Sorry, I was incorrect. It actually implies a ~$10B valuation, which is even more ludicrous. I remain convinced that people pour money into these new space stocks thinking it's correlated with / gives them exposure to SpaceX.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #22 on: 08/07/2025 06:26 pm »
Opened at $70/sh compared with the IPO price of $45, now trading intra-day around $63. The IPO was for 19.3 million shares.

19.3 x 63 =~ $1.2 billion in market capitalization.
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Offline sstli2

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #23 on: 08/07/2025 06:46 pm »
Opened at $70/sh compared with the IPO price of $45, now trading intra-day around $63. The IPO was for 19.3 million shares.

19.3 x 63 =~ $1.2 billion in market capitalization.

It's a diluted equity stake. Per CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/07/rocket-maker-firefly-aerospace-fly-stock-ipo.html

Quote
Shares started trading at $70 each under the ticker symbol FLY. The initial price values the company at close to $10 billion.


Offline ShinodaChan

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #24 on: 08/07/2025 06:46 pm »
Suffice to say, FLY is a little overvalued right now...wouldn't advise anyone to buy in at this point.

Offline TrevorMonty

AEI Partners will be happy with price, they would've made a nice profit after buy their stake for peanuts. To be fair they have invested in company.

Offline Tywin

Under 20$ is a look up...but now is overvalue.
« Last Edit: 08/07/2025 07:53 pm by Tywin »
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Offline catdlr

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #27 on: 08/07/2025 10:13 pm »
Quote
We rocket-powered the @Nasdaq opening bell.

$FLY https://nasdaq.com/newsroom/texas-innovator-takes-flight-nasdaq-firefly-launches-ipo

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1953555876968554792

Quote
Today, @Firefly_Space becomes the newest member of the @Nasdaq family. Welcome home, $FLY! 🔔 Catch the highlights. 🎥

https://twitter.com/NasdaqExchange/status/1953557102883918098



Quote
Nasdaq@Nasdaq
🚀
@Firefly_Space, rooted in Texas, made its debut on @Nasdaq. From IPO celebrations to landmark legislation, Nasdaq is proud to stand alongside Texas leaders driving economic growth, innovation, and governance.

Read more: http://spr.ly/6018fcwUo

https://x.com/Nasdaq/status/1953535961767252208
« Last Edit: 08/07/2025 10:31 pm by catdlr »
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Offline Tywin

The best news is they get 800 million Cash now...that is important for Eclipse and other stuff in the future...
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Offline catdlr

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #29 on: 08/09/2025 02:09 am »
Kudos to NSF on this post

Quote
Jason Halter@ereboros
Wanted to celebrate @Firefly_Space  going public yesterday by sharing some bts shots from Flight 6 that never got posted. Haven’t talked about it much, but serving as floor manager for the last three launch broadcasts has absolutely been one of the highlights of my career.

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Offline pilottim

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #30 on: 08/11/2025 12:46 am »
Really wondering how much NOC put up for Firefly that AEI said no to...AEI wins anyways even if NOC ended up buying Firefly for below their initial offering price (like Lockmart/Terran), because they will still get a fat cash out 6 months from now. 

Offline AndrewM

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #31 on: 09/13/2025 06:58 pm »
https://twitter.com/GoldmanSachs/status/1963697359025578109 [Sep 4]

Quote
On August 6, Firefly Aerospace (@Firefly_Space $FLY) successfully priced its $1B IPO—representing the largest-ever space & defense technology IPO. Goldman Sachs served as lead left bookrunner.

Offline jstrotha0975

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #32 on: 09/13/2025 07:31 pm »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket lab?

Offline lightleviathan

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #33 on: 09/13/2025 07:44 pm »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket Lab?

Traders very rarely do research on the companies they invest in, and are often subject to hype.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #34 on: 09/14/2025 02:49 am »
How can Firefly be more valuable than Rocket lab?

This analysis relies on the standard model of 'market capitalization' that multiplies the market price and the total shares outstanding. Set aside for the moment the question of lock-ups that prohibit some holders from selling and consider the price at which big holders would choose to sell. If they have an interest in maintaining voting control (possibly a non-financial interest like sentimental attachment to the enterprise) it doesn't fully make sense to count their shares in the total valuation.

Are there only 22,190,400 shares in circulation right now? (All the others locked-up?) Those are the shares market participants are bidding for. As an example, one director (Pamela Braden) increased their holdings, acquiring additional shares at the $45 IPO price. FLY currently trades below that, indicating the market values the shares less than an insider.
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #35 on: 09/24/2025 07:36 pm »
Firefly held their 1st earnings call (Q2 2025) on September 22nd.

Presentation
Form 8-K
Form 10-Q

Items that I saw that I found notable in the presentation were:
- 1st Elytra mission (New Glenn launch) is still targeting 2025.
- Eclipse is targeting 1st launch in 2026 but no mention of Antares 330.
- Pad 0A at Wallops is targeting 2026 for 1st launch while LC-3C at Esrange is in 2027. I believe both of these previously were planned for 2026.
- $15.5M in revenue in Q2 2025 vs $21.1M in Q2 2024 but $71.4M in revenue in H1 2025 vs $29.4M in H1 2024.

Then in the 10-Q, it seems like a 5th Blue Ghost mission has been ordered.
Quote
Additionally, we have been selected by a proprietary commercial customer for a separate dedicated Blue Ghost lander mission.

Firefly's current backlog (as of July 31) is $1.3B. The multi-launch agreements that Firefly has but don't have scheduled missions account for $344.8M of that backlog.

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #36 on: 09/30/2025 08:44 pm »
The test stand anomaly seems to have let some of the air out of the valuation bubble. Leveraged long positions have likely been feeling pressure. In the original filing the IPO price was expected to be in the range between $35 and $39 per share; anything above that certainly looked frothy. Now that it's trading below $30 it might be fun to speculate on whether that initial range was 'priced to perfection' or allowed for some anomalies along the way. 
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Offline AndrewM

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #37 on: 10/10/2025 01:57 am »
Looks like Firefly is hit with their first likely frivolous lawsuit as a result of the FLTA007 stage 1 anomaly.

Securities Fraud Investigation Into Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm [Oct. 3]

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a leading national shareholder rights law firm, today announced that it has commenced an investigation on behalf of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: FLY) investors concerning the Company’s possible violations of the federal securities laws.

IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR WHO LOST MONEY ON FIREFLY AEROSPACE INC. (FLY), CLICK HERE TO INQUIRE ABOUT POTENTIALLY PURSUING CLAIMS TO RECOVER YOUR LOSS.

What Happened?

On September 29, 2025, Firefly disclosed that during testing, the first stage of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket “experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage.”

On this news, Firefly’s stock price fell $10.29, or 27.8%, over two consecutive trading days to close at $26.67 per share on October 1, 2025, thereby injuring investors.

Offline TrevorMonty

Looks like Firefly is hit with their first likely frivolous lawsuit as a result of the FLTA007 stage 1 anomaly.

Securities Fraud Investigation Into Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) Announced – Shareholders Who Lost Money Urged To Contact Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a Leading Securities Fraud Law Firm [Oct. 3]

Quote
LOS ANGELES--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a leading national shareholder rights law firm, today announced that it has commenced an investigation on behalf of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: FLY) investors concerning the Company’s possible violations of the federal securities laws.

IF YOU ARE AN INVESTOR WHO LOST MONEY ON FIREFLY AEROSPACE INC. (FLY), CLICK HERE TO INQUIRE ABOUT POTENTIALLY PURSUING CLAIMS TO RECOVER YOUR LOSS.

What Happened?

On September 29, 2025, Firefly disclosed that during testing, the first stage of its Alpha Flight 7 rocket “experienced an event that resulted in a loss of the stage.”

On this news, Firefly’s stock price fell $10.29, or 27.8%, over two consecutive trading days to close at $26.67 per share on October 1, 2025, thereby injuring investors.

Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. Pursuing this lawsuit is great way for investor to devalue their shares. Only winner will be law firm if successful.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #39 on: 10/29/2025 02:01 am »
The acquisition of SciTec was already discussed in the general Firefly thread but cross-posting here for the financial side of it.

Firefly Aerospace Announces Strategic Acquisition of SciTec to Advance National Security Capabilities [Oct. 5]

Quote
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY), a market leading space and defense technology company, has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SciTec, Inc., a leader in advanced national security technologies, for approximately $855 million through a combination of $300 million in cash and $555 million in Firefly shares issued to SciTec owners at a price of $50 per share.

“The acquisition of SciTec enhances our ability to support a growing number of defense missions and provides us with a significant operational advantage,” said Jason Kim, CEO of Firefly Aerospace. “SciTec’s mission-proven software and big data processing capabilities provide warfighters with rapid, accurate information to enable informed decisions that protect our homeland from emerging threats. These capabilities significantly enhance our ability to deliver integrated, software-defined solutions for critical national security imperatives, particularly Golden Dome. We are excited to welcome the SciTec team to the Firefly family and look forward to working together to continue to deliver leading edge solutions to advance our country’s strategic advantage in space.”

The acquisition will advance Firefly’s comprehensive space services by adding mission-proven defense software analytics, remote sensing, and multi-phenomenology data expertise. SciTec’s core capabilities – which include missile warning, tracking and defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, space domain awareness, and autonomous command and control – will supplement Firefly’s launch, lunar, and in-space services. SciTec further adds ground and onboard data processing as well as AI-enabled systems designed for low latency operations to support advanced threat tracking and response across multiple domains.

SciTec generated revenues of approximately $164 million for the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2025, driven by robust contracts supporting the intelligence community, defense and national security agencies, and commercial customers. Earlier this year, SciTec was awarded a $259 million contract by the U.S. Space Force to further enhance the Future Operational Resilient Ground Evolution (FORGE) framework. SciTec is delivering a scalable, cyber-secure ground processing capability to strengthen the Space Force’s missile warning and tracking mission and accelerate threat-responsive solutions for warfighters.

“We believe Firefly is the best home for our business and people,” said Jim Lisowski, CEO SciTec. “In addition to the strong strategic fit, our cultures are similar. Both teams are empowered, rapid innovators who are passionate about our critical missions and willing to take on near impossible tasks to ensure we protect our country from future threats. We share a unique focus on providing differentiated, leading-edge solutions to our customers.”

SciTec is headquartered in Princeton, N.J., and maintains five additional facilities strategically positioned near key space and defense customers.

The acquisition is expected to close by year end 2025, subject to regulatory approvals and customary conditions. Once finalized, SciTec will be operated as a Firefly subsidiary under its current business model led by Jim Lisowski, current CEO of SciTec, who will report to Firefly’s CEO Jason Kim.

Firefly Aerospace to Announce Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results on November 12, 2025 [Oct. 27]

Quote
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY), a market leading space and defense technology company, today announced it will release its third quarter 2025 financial results for the period ended September 30, 2025, on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, after market close.

Firefly will hold a conference call the same day at 4:00 p.m. CT / 5:00 p.m. ET. A live webcast of the call and a replay will be available in the Investors section of the Company’s website at https://investors.fireflyspace.com.

The financial results news release will be posted in the Investors section of the Company’s website under the “News” section. Additional materials supporting the conference call and financial results release will be posted under the "Events & Resources" section.

Offline AndrewM

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #40 on: 12/06/2025 02:24 am »
Firefly held their Q3 2025 earnings call on November 12th.

Presentation
Form 8-K
Form 10-Q

Items that I saw that I found notable in the presentation were:
- Alpha flight 7 aiming for between late Q4 2025 and Q1 2026
- Elytra Mission 3 completed PDR and is on track for a 2027 launch
- Miranda flight engines for 1st Eclipse flight are underway
- Vira hot fire testing is scheduled to begin in 1H2026

Firefly's current backlog (as of September 30th) remains at $1.28B. The multi-launch agreements that Firefly has but don't have scheduled missions account for $344.8M of that backlog.

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Re: Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)
« Reply #41 on: 01/09/2026 08:37 pm »
Firefly Aerospace Joins the Russell 2000® and Russell 3000® Indexes [Dec. 22]

Quote
Firefly Aerospace (Nasdaq: FLY), a market leading space and defense technology company, today joined the Russell 2000® Index, as published by the FTSE Russell.

Firefly was one of 18 companies selected for addition to the Russell 2000® in December. Membership in the Russell 2000® Index also triggered the company’s addition to the broad-market Russell 3000® Index.

Russell indexes are widely used by investment managers and institutional investors as benchmarks for investment strategies. The market capitalization-based indexes are part of FTSE Russell, a global index provider that offers a broad range of market indexes to measure the performance of different segments of the global financial markets.

Prospectus for sale of 11,111,116 shares to acquire SciTec [Dec. 19]

Quote
This prospectus relates to the offer and sale from time to time by the selling securityholders named in this prospectus (the “Selling Securityholders”) of up to 11,111,116 shares of Common Stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”) of Firefly Aerospace Inc. (“Firefly Aerospace”) that were received by such Selling Securityholders as consideration in connection with Firefly Aerospace’s acquisition (the “Acquisition”) of SciTec Innovations, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company. In connection with the Acquisition, the Common Stock acquired by the Selling Securityholders
was valued at $555.6 million based on a price of $50.00 per share of Common Stock.

We will not receive any proceeds from the sale of shares of Common Stock by the Selling Securityholders pursuant to this prospectus. However, we will pay the expenses, other than underwriting discounts and commissions and certain expenses incurred by the Selling Securityholders in connection with the registration of the Common Stock.

We are registering the offer and sale of certain securities described above to satisfy certain registration rights we have granted. Our registration of the securities covered by this prospectus does not mean that the Selling Securityholders will offer or sell, any of the securities. The Selling Securityholders and any of their permitted transferees may offer and sell the securities covered by this prospectus in a number of different ways and at varying prices. In connection with the Acquisition, the Selling Securityholders have agreed not to transfer, sell, pledge, distribute or otherwise dispose of the Common Stock received in the Acquisition, or enter into any other arrangement that transfers to another person any of the economic consequences of ownership of such shares, until February 7, 2026. Additional information on the Selling Securityholders, and the times and manner in which they may offer and sell the securities under this prospectus, is provided under “Selling Securityholders” and “Plan of Distribution” in this prospectus.

You should read this prospectus and any prospectus supplement or amendment carefully before you invest in our securities.
Our Common Stock is listed on the Nasdaq Global Market under the symbol “FLY”. On December 18, 2025, the closing price of our Common Stock was $20.07 per share.

We are an “emerging growth company” as that term is used in the Jumpstart Our Business Startups Act of 2012 (the “JOBS Act”) and have elected to comply with certain reduced public company reporting requirements. See “Risk Factors” and “Prospectus Summary—Implications of Being an Emerging Growth Company.”

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