Firefly Aerospace to go public (financial discussion)

[Tywin]

I open this thread for debate the finance stuff of Firefly going public.

https://fireflyspace.com/news/firefly-aerospace-files-registration-statement-for-proposed-initial-public-offering/


https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1860160/000119312525158225/d849748ds1.htm

[trimeta]

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

[Tywin]

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

Well I only copy the Rocket Lab thread, because for me make sense.

[Tywin]

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

IF they going public, they will have money for new vehicle, maybe a new lander, new space tug, or future evolution of Eclipse...

[trimeta]

What new vehicle is Firefly Aerospace announcing, Tywin? Because Eclipse (née MLV, née Beta) was announced previously, it wasn't part of the same announcement that they're going public.

Well I only copy the Rocket Lab thread, because for me make sense.

The Rocket Lab thread was named that way because they announced that they were going public and developing Neutron at the same time. That thread was initially about both financial discussion and Neutron discussion. When Neutron discussion was split out, the "(financial discussion)" suffix was added to clarify that the original thread would only be for finances.

Blindly copying the Rocket Lab title without understanding its history wasn't a good idea.

[lightleviathan]

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

[Tywin]

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

Why?

[sstli2]

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

[DC_Spaceguy]

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

AE Industrial wants a return on their investment, which they'll get with an IPO and offloading their shares to the public. Looks like they have  ~6 month lockup period so they won't be able to dump their shares until 6 months after the IPO

Relatedly, I expected them to merge Firefly and York at some point before an IPO. Would have been good to diversify their revenues a bit more. York's been doing good with their SDA work.

[TrevorMonty]

Rocket lab weekly guys discuss Firefly later half of video.
I'm like them, wish Firefly well but think they aren't worth risk at this stage.

https://www.youtube.com/live/h2ghA12idLA?si=n-2Ho8rny4zoi89g

[Tywin]

Another reminder that private equity is cancer. There's no reason to do this, and I think this probably is the beginning of the end for Firefly.

What does an IPO have to do with private equity?

AE Industrial wants a return on their investment, which they'll get with an IPO and offloading their shares to the public. Looks like they have  ~6 month lockup period so they won't be able to dump their shares until 6 months after the IPO

Relatedly, I expected them to merge Firefly and York at some point before an IPO. Would have been good to diversify their revenues a bit more. York's been doing good with their SDA work.

Yeah I expected the same, maybe happend later, like Redwire and Edge, and both are from AE Industrial.

[Tywin]

We have now the valuation:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/firefly-aerospace-seeks-55-billion-valuation-ipo-us-space-race-heats-up-2025-07-28/

600 million in cash for the company is very good, for the investor in the other side, is too high IMHO.

[jstrotha0975]

I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.

[TrevorMonty]

I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.

Plus 1 from 1 successful moon landings.

[Tywin]

I'm not investing in a company that has only 2 successful launches out of 6.

They need to improve the Alpha cadence and success a lot...and show good progress with Eclipse.

[ShinodaChan]

We have now the valuation:

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/firefly-aerospace-seeks-55-billion-valuation-ipo-us-space-race-heats-up-2025-07-28/

600 million in cash for the company is very good, for the investor in the other side, is too high IMHO.

$35-39 a share? Heck no, not even close. They're looking at $30 at best, more realistically the low to mid 20s. Blue Ghost is one thing, but the poor track record of Alpha + the dubious nature of their other projects (Eclipse notwithstanding) puts them in a gray zone.

[Tywin]

IPO this week.

[Tywin]

https://twitter.com/Firefly_Space/status/1953210675544899998

[sstli2]

My cynical take is that RKLB, ASTS, LUNR, and now FLY are getting propped up by amateur (or delusional) retail investors who see SpaceX's success and think that this handful of publicly-traded names serve as a good enough proxy for space sector exposure.

This IPO values Firefly at ~6B, which if we use a simple perpetuity calc, and a ~8% rate of return, implies ~500m of profit (not revenue). Their annual revenue is ~70m, their net profit probably negative.

"New space" may be the next tech bubble

[catdlr]

Welcoming Firefly Aerospace to the @NasdaqExchange Opening Bell.

https://twitter.com/NasdaqExchange/status/1953445716837159213