Author Topic: Chinese crewed lunar program  (Read 37147 times)

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #40 on: 01/28/2011 04:25 am »

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html
It also was never built instead the very different Energia rocket flew.

The CZ-5-504 lifts about 25T into LEO it uses four CZ-5-300 boosters.
The 25T LM-5 already uses five CZ cores not sure there is a direct route to 100+ T like Delta IV.
The CZ-500 core looks too heavy to fly on it's own the boosters appear to be necessary.
40 or 50T might be doable with out too many changes to tooling.
Now the interesting part is they claim they might be able to produce up to 30 CZ-5 units a year.
Not sure if this is complete vehicles or first stage/booster units.
But it seems they're going for flight rates vs a large payload.
They only spend 2 maybe at most 3 billion a year on spaceflight a government HLV is just going to be wishful thinking on that budget.

Also brings to light how efficient private operations are.
F9 is functionally equivalent to LM-5 and Dragon exceeds Shenzhou across the board.
« Last Edit: 01/28/2011 04:57 am by Patchouli »

Offline Downix

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #41 on: 01/28/2011 04:59 am »

Are you familiar with the UR-700?  it was to be multiple Protons, their 6 individual engines replaced with a single RD-270, strapped together.  In this situation, it would be 7 LM5's, strapped together.  You can see a similar design in the Super Delta IV Heavy thread in the Heavy lift section.

http://www.russianspaceweb.com/ur700.html
It also was never built instead the very different Energia rocket flew.

The CZ-5-504 lifts about 25T into LEO it uses four CZ-5-300 boosters.
The 25T LM-5 already uses five CZ cores not sure there is a direct route to 100+ T like Delta IV.
The CZ-500 core looks too heavy to fly on it's own the boosters appear to be necessary.
40 or 50T might be doable with out too many changes to tooling.
Now the interesting part is they claim they might be able to produce up to 30 CZ-5 units a year.
Not sure if this is complete vehicles or first stage/booster units.
But it seems they're going for flight rates vs a large payload.
They only spend 2 maybe 3 billion a year on spaceflight a government HLV is just going to be wishful thinking on that budget.

I think it depends on if they can deliver the 600 ton engine that was mentioned awhile back. 
chuck - Toilet paper has no real value? Try living with 5 other adults for 6 months in a can with no toilet paper. Man oh man. Toilet paper would be worth it's weight in gold!

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #42 on: 01/29/2011 03:35 pm »
It's not like China is an open society.  It's not like they are not actively, although they will officially tell you otherwise, preparing to go head-to-head with the United States.

I'd be scared poop-less to visit China the way I talk; the government of a billion people is scared of a man who got the Nobel Peace Prize.  Over here, if you say something that offends the powers that be, you get your post deleted.  Over there, you get deleted.

My feeling is that China will do what it determines that it wants to do, regarding HSF, and anything else.  And clearly, if they can get to the Moon in a decade, then they will have bragging rights.  It is no longer about getting there first, an idea which is lost on our President; it is about getting there and staying.

Pragmatically speaking, they have got to be more technically advanced than the US was in 1959.  There should be no technical reason that they cannot accomplish this goal within a decade, but that is not a prediction nor a guarantee.  We did it then, why couldn't they do it now?

As to the WaPo becoming more of a yellow press than it ever used to be; I am not surprised.  Of course their circulation is dropping; there is little useful information in too many news articles.  One Advanced Persistant Threat that the Chinese could use to great advantage is the intellectual paucity displayed by so many American journalists.  But I digress.

And OV:  I found your quote from Dale Meyerrose to be a little vague: "...the vast majority of APT attacks are believed to come from a single country."  Uhhhh...  Which country?  Luxembourg?  Andorra?

One of the goals listed is to map out the location for their Lunar Base.  You don't map out such a location unless you have at least some plans to make use of such a base, do you?

They could also be practising their PowerPoint skills.  Just sayin'.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline hop

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #43 on: 01/29/2011 08:07 pm »
Pragmatically speaking, they have got to be more technically advanced than the US was in 1959.  There should be no technical reason that they cannot accomplish this goal within a decade, but that is not a prediction nor a guarantee.
Agreed. There is absolutely no reason to believe they couldn't. There are fairly good reasons to believe their leadership has not yet committed the resources required to do so.

Their current program is operated in a very careful, incremental manner, and the pace seems to be limited in part by a desire to keep costs down. To date, they have not exhibited any tendency toward crash programs or high risk, one-off propaganda spectaculars. Getting to the moon in 10 years at the current pace would be difficult, and IMO impossible if they do the other things they have explicitly committed doing. They are clearly building a space station, and that will keep them busy through at least 2016. Probably more, given inevitable slips and setbacks. Presumably they will operate it for a while after it is completed. Even if they turn seriously toward the moon in 2016, a 2020 crewed landing would be a stretch. Mid to late 2020s would seem more likely.

The pace may changes, but based on past experience, it will probably be obvious if it happens. To date, the Chinese have been fairly open about the direction of their manned program. They've consistently said what they are going to do and done it. There doesn't appear to be any compelling reason to hide this, so it's reasonable to expect the same behavior to continue.

There seems to be a theme in some of these posts (in this thread and other similar threads, not JohnFornaro's quoted above) that China would somehow benefit by springing a surprise moon mission on the world. What's missing is any rational explanation of how this benefits them over announcing it in advance (as they have done with their program to date) and following through.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #44 on: 01/30/2011 02:40 pm »
Their current program is operated in a very careful, incremental manner, and the pace seems to be limited in part by a desire to keep costs down.

The only thing I would add is that they also appear to be proceeding "slowly" to avoid spectacular failures, which would not reflect well on the regime.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline tigerade

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #45 on: 01/31/2011 12:13 am »
I think a Chinese moon mission would be pretty dang cool.  It'd be the first manned mission to the moon that I've seen in my lifetime.  It'd be cool to see the taikonauts bounce around while being filmed by modern cameras.  I enjoyed seeing the spacewalk video from a couple years ago.

Offline butters

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #46 on: 01/31/2011 12:32 am »
China won't go do any manned missions to the moon until they're comfortable with their space station program. They'll move forward in a logical progression. Unlike the United States, which aimed for the moon before laying any groundwork for an ongoing exploration program.

Werner von Braun laid out the roadmap to manned space exploration: first you built a space station, they you build a moon base, and then you go to the mars. This has been widely established as the most sensible way to proceed.

This is also the kind of long view that doesn't play well in the U.S. but suits the Communist Party of China just fine. They'll be around to take credit for the future successes that build on the steps they're taking today.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #47 on: 09/24/2022 01:42 pm »
Just bumping this thread to point out that China did not build a lunar base in the last decade.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #48 on: 03/06/2023 03:59 pm »
China won't go do any manned missions to the moon until they're comfortable with their space station program. They'll move forward in a logical progression. Unlike the United States, which aimed for the moon before laying any groundwork for an ongoing exploration program.

Werner von Braun laid out the roadmap to manned space exploration: first you built a space station, they you build a moon base, and then you go to the mars. This has been widely established as the most sensible way to proceed.

This is also the kind of long view that doesn't play well in the U.S. but suits the Communist Party of China just fine. They'll be around to take credit for the future successes that build on the steps they're taking today.
China is lucky that it is not in a lunar space race with America because any unmanned lunar missions it has conducted (and continues to launch) have been tailored for peaceful purposes. The Long March 9 moon rocket is scheduled to launch in the 2030s, and since the US is in the lead in preparing to send humans back to the moon with the Starship and SLS, the China National Space Administration will have good reason to take a slow steady pace in planning to send humans to moon and possibly build a lunar base rather than hastily catch up with NASA in manned lunar exploration plans.

Offline Timothytyy

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #49 on: 04/25/2023 03:33 am »
https://twitter.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1650329077298118657
Quote
WU Weiren, chief designer of China's lunar exploration program: "Chinese will set foot on the Moon before 2030. There's no doubt about it."
What a great promise. Let's wait and see.

Offline JohnFornaro

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #50 on: 04/25/2023 10:11 am »
Quote from: WU Weiren
Chief designer of China's lunar exploration program: "Chinese will set foot on the Moon before 2030. There's no doubt about it."

Well, good for them.  Accentuate the positive.
Sometimes I just flat out don't get it.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #51 on: 05/29/2023 06:44 am »
https://twitter.com/cnspaceflight/status/1663023215143444481

Quote
One major announcement by CMSA in the Shenzhou-16 press briefing is the crewed lunar landing in full swing, including Long March 10, lunar lander, new generation crewed spacecraft, lunar space suits, heavy rocket launch facility, etc.
And, they say BEFORE 2030

Offline native chicken

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #52 on: 06/01/2023 04:27 am »
The earliest planned lunar landing time in China is around 2025.
The Chinese lunar landing plan is a two-step process, with the first stage being to use mature rocket technology (2-3 rockets) to create an Apollo level lunar landing plan in 2025, with a minimum total LEO mass of 70-150 tons. The second stage is to use heavy carrier rockets as cargo rockets, with a timeline of 2030. In an interview article with an academician in 2019, it was stated that the development of heavy carrier rockets was initially planned to take 20 years (2011-2030).
The initial planned lunar landing plan used the CZ5DY rocket, which is a fully liquid oxygen kerosene version of the CZ5 rocket with takeoff stage power. The transportation capacity is approximately LEO50t and LTO 15-20t. This matter was mentioned in the article by Academician Long Lehao in 2009 and 2010.
In 2013, a local publication in Shanghai called Xinmin Weekly revealed in an interview with relevant personnel that the country had suspended research on lunar rockets and demanded full completion of space station construction. There was a problem with the static pressure test of the storage tank of the CZ5 rocket back then.
The re development of the lunar rocket was from 2017 to 2018. This time, the need for reuse has been added. The takeoff scale is larger.

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #53 on: 06/01/2023 07:58 am »
It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.
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Offline shijiav

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #54 on: 06/01/2023 06:55 pm »
It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.

I read the SZ16 press conference they said "2030年前" which should means before 2030, Isn`t 'by 2030' meaning 2030 is included?

Offline Phil Stooke

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #55 on: 06/02/2023 03:05 am »
Before the beginning of 2030 or the end of 2030?

Offline Vahe231991

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #56 on: 06/02/2023 03:58 am »
It was announced at the Shenzhou 16 press conference that China aims to walk on the Moon by 2030. The CZ-5DY is now called the CZ-10. Two launches will be used for the Lunar landing. The first will send the lander and the second the crewed orbiter. Models of all three vehicles were recently shown.

I read the SZ16 press conference they said "2030年前" which should means before 2030, Isn`t 'by 2030' meaning 2030 is included?
They may be referring to before 2030, given that the maiden launch of the Long March 10 is currently targeted for 2027.

Offline shijiav

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #57 on: 06/02/2023 05:55 am »
Before the beginning of 2030 or the end of 2030?

“2030年前” usually means before the beginning of 2030 in Chinese which is '<2030'

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #58 on: 06/02/2023 07:01 am »
Article from late April:

https://twitter.com/tobyliiiiiiiiii/status/1664394641192677377

Quote
“The Moon will have access to TV, games and WiFi.”

“We are building an [internet] satellite constellation around the moon, that can provide communication, navigation, and remote sensing services,” Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program revealed this week.

https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-04-25/China-to-perform-crewed-lunar-landing-before-2030-Chief-designer-1jhGzYsnRg4/index.html

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: Chinese crewed lunar program
« Reply #59 on: 06/03/2023 03:41 pm »
Here’s a helpful infographic summarising China’s crewed lunar architecture:

https://twitter.com/tommosoba1/status/1665011631028305923

Quote
#NASA aims to get back on the moon by 2025 as #CHINA space programme aim for its first test in 2027 in race that could herald new terrestrial prospects

Original graphic available from:

https://www.graphicnews.com/en/pages/44348/space-china-moon-race

 

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