That implies another 18 BE-4 engines from BO, unless they implement SMART very quickly. How realistic is it to expect BO to be able to deliver engines that soon?1. Peregrine - Net Feb2. USSF-106 - Net March3. USSF - 87 - Net March4. CRS SNC-1 - Net May5. CRS SNC-2 - Net June6. USSF - 112 - Net June7. CRS SNC-3 - Net July8. CRS SNC-4 - Net Sept9. CRS SNC-5 - Net Dec10. Kuiper - Net Dec
So, with all that said, how many launches could one reasonably expect for 2023?
Probably not more than two
Quote from: gongora on 01/18/2023 09:31 pmProbably not more than twoOk, you think the Peregrine and SNC-1?
This is ridiculous. I'm willing to believe that Vulcan will become a great LV in time, but no modern orbital LV has launched more than twice in its first year, and the last time ULA launched more than 10 in a year was 2016.It appears that modern LVs generally take at least 5 years to launch the first 10 vehicles. Launch is a learning process.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/18/2023 10:07 pmThis is ridiculous. I'm willing to believe that Vulcan will become a great LV in time, but no modern orbital LV has launched more than twice in its first year, and the last time ULA launched more than 10 in a year was 2016.It appears that modern LVs generally take at least 5 years to launch the first 10 vehicles. Launch is a learning process.Atlas V launched 3 times within its first year. August 21, 2002, May 14, 2003, and July 17, 2003. Atlas V's 10th launch was June 15, 2007. That 5 year period also saw the final 11 launches of the Atlas II and III. Electron's first launch was May 25, 2017, its 10th launch was December 6, 2019. It is a much smaller rocket of course, and it did launch 6 times in 2019. Falcon 9 demo launch was June 4, 2010. Its 10th flight was July 14, 2014, a period of just over 4 years. This includes a major upgrade of the LV from the v1.0 to the v1.1ULA has a lot of pressure on to make sure Vulcan performs. They really need it to be a very reliable workhorse ASAP to secure their future. They need to get it certified for their NSSL launches and start flying them. To be clear: I do think 5 is a stretch. It assumes everything goes perfectly on the first launch (probably not, considering how much new stuff is being debuted) and the subsequent launches. I think at least 3 is very possible, 4 may be pushing it (but ULA really does need to get those NSSL launches going).
Same pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets. They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.
Quote from: gongora on 01/19/2023 03:36 pmSame pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets. They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.If there is room to stack a Vulcan and an Atlas at the same time, one on each ML, then this might reduce pad "conversion", not increase it.
Here's a link to a post I made with a graph of "EELV" launch cadence over the first five years since maiden launch, launch aligned, for HII, Atlas V, Delta IV, Ariane V, and Falcon 9: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2450278#msg2450278. I'm reattaching the graph for reference here, as it seems relevant.
ULA doesn't really have a great need to quickly ramp production on Vulcan for the first couple years. They'll need a few a year at first, and then they'll need it at full rate when the Atlas V's for Amazon run out.
Quote from: abaddon on 01/20/2023 03:53 pmHere's a link to a post I made with a graph of "EELV" launch cadence over the first five years since maiden launch, launch aligned, for HII, Atlas V, Delta IV, Ariane V, and Falcon 9: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46338.msg2450278#msg2450278. I'm reattaching the graph for reference here, as it seems relevant.According to this terrific graph, in their first years, Atlas V, Delta IV, HII, Ariane 5, and Falcon 9 had a TOTAL of SIX additional launches.So the proposition is that ULA will launch 1.5X as many Vulcans in the partial year after its debut as the combined track record of all five predecessors.“Aspirational” is generous.The fastest “first ten” was Falcon 9 in just under FOUR years.We will see if ULA, with their “MethaLOX Atlas VI” Vulcan can match that.
So, it all comes down to whatever the best production rate BO can manage for their BE-4s. And in the longer term, for both of the affected LVs.
It seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?
ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.
We have seen that methane GSE can require some testing and debugging for a large rocket, notably Starship. It's probably easier than Hydrogen a lot easier than hydrogen, but it's still going to be new. If Vulcan needs to roll back a few times we should not be surprised: it's normal and presumably it's in the schedule.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 07:15 pmIt seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.
Quote from: Vahe231991 on 01/20/2023 08:08 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 07:15 pmIt seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.Yep, that's what Wikipedia says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS_RocketShipThat article says it takes 3 weeks one way. There are no further Atlas V or Delta IV heavy flights from Vandenberg except possibly Kuiper on Atlas V. I have no idea if Kuiper will need Vandenberg launches.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 09:23 pmQuote from: Vahe231991 on 01/20/2023 08:08 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 07:15 pmIt seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?ULA rockets are transported to Vandenberg SFB by boat from Cape Canaveral by crossing the Panama Canal after sailing across the Gulf of Mexico.Yep, that's what Wikipedia says: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS_RocketShipThat article says it takes 3 weeks one way. There are no further Atlas V or Delta IV heavy flights from Vandenberg except possibly Kuiper on Atlas V. I have no idea if Kuiper will need Vandenberg launches.Cape Canaveral will be launch site for Atlas V rockets slated to launch Kuiper satellites. The KuiperSat-1 and KuiperSat-2 will be lofted to space as part of the maiden launch of the Vulcan rocket, and Amazon last year won a contract to launch Kuiper satellites aboard 38 Vulcan rockets.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/19/2023 03:58 pmQuote from: gongora on 01/19/2023 03:36 pmSame pad, but different mobile launch platforms for the different rockets. They've already done some tanking tests with the Vulcan pathfinder, so not starting from scratch there.If there is room to stack a Vulcan and an Atlas at the same time, one on each ML, then this might reduce pad "conversion", not increase it.ULA has rebuilt the SPOC (Spaceflight Processing Operations Center) building into a second vehicle integration facility for Vulcan at their launch site in Florida to essentially double their possible flight rate. Edit to add: Vulcan: Launch platform rolls to pad for first timeJanuary 29, 2021https://blog.ulalaunch.com/blog/vulcan-centaur-launch-platform-rolls-to-pad-for-first-time
I think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?
The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.
First of all, the Demo launch of DreamChaser is missing, which is supposed to be the second launch of the Vulcan rocket.
And the cost for the first 83 launches is $5B, which equates to about $50M per launch.
Since when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?
Quote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 01:34 pmSince when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/22/2023 02:45 pmQuote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 01:34 pmSince when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1But where did the "Demo-1" name come from? Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up? Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1? The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about. The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.
I'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.
Quote from: ZachS09 on 01/21/2023 03:05 amI think we're going off topic with the discussion of the Kuiper satellite launches and Vulcan contracts. It should be in whichever thread is dedicated to Vulcan launching Kuiper.These additions on Next Spaceflight are obviously subject to change, and who knows how many Vulcans will be launched this year?The NextSpaceFlight website now lists 11 planned Vulcan launches for 2023 instead of 10. Therefore, the posting of this thread was quite premature, especially the title, because NextSpaceFlight routinely makes changes to expected launch windows for upcoming launches for which no firm date is set.
Quote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 04:32 pmI'd guess there won't be important equipment on the first flight.If you mean that NASA won’t place mission critical hardware on the DreamChaser cargo inaugural flight, that’s assured and seen on the corresponding flights for Dragon and Cygnus.They won’t send EMU hardware.Wasn’t it “tee shirts and…” something else inexpensive but sent on every cargo flight?They can always stock up on water. Maybe prove out a powered freezer by stocking it with ice cream. The astronauts won’t starve without it or get fat with extra allotments.
Quote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 03:29 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 01/22/2023 02:45 pmQuote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 01:34 pmSince when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1But where did the "Demo-1" name come from? Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up? Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1? The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about. The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.I thought there had always been a demo flight planned. This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online: Chris Bergin - NSF@NASASpaceflight"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR). DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 01/23/2023 03:20 pmQuote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 03:29 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 01/22/2023 02:45 pmQuote from: gongora on 01/22/2023 01:34 pmSince when is Dreamchaser doing a demo flight?SNC demo-1 has been listed as the second Vulcan flight for a long time. NSSL requires that Vulcan fly two non-NSSL flights prior to the first NSSL flight. presumably, you get a big discount if you are willing to fly on an LV demo flight. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SNC_Demo-1But where did the "Demo-1" name come from? Did the person writing the Wikipedia article make it up? Is there really a demo mission, or is the first flight SNC-1? The people writing these space articles on Wikipedia don't always know what they're talking about. The original plan for Dream Chaser when they got the award didn't have a demo flight.I thought there had always been a demo flight planned. This is the earliest reference to a "Demo-1" flight that I can find online: Chris Bergin - NSF@NASASpaceflight"A glimpse into SNC's Dream Chaser mission control (FCR). DEMO-1 - the First Cargo Dream Chaser (named Tenacity) - launches on the second Vulcan launch in 2022."https://twitter.com/NASASpaceflight/status/1336718371086364673Thanks for doing some research on whether the first planned Dream Chaser orbital flight is really called Demo-1, because when I went on Wikipedia, I noticed that the article "SNC Demo-1" was created in May 2020, months before the NSF tweet mentioning Demo-1 by name was written.
Maybe this thread was not necessary, but not having a concrete calendar, it is difficult to know when will be the launches, I already made some changes leaving the flights that possibly we will see this year (optimistic calendar as if I were Elon Musk ) and the others moving them to 2024, many flights are in "NET 2023" and we are in January, so it is difficult to define them with a date within the application.Let's hope that after the first flight of Vulcan, we will have a decent schedule of the next launches, not only depending on the first flight, but also on the suppliers, such as Blue Origin...
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 07:15 pmIt seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 01/23/2023 02:45 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 01/20/2023 07:15 pmIt seems that Vulcan is built in Huntsville and then moved to Florida on Rocketship. On the initial shipment, the ship carried one Vulcan. Is this the max? Rocketship takes 8 days on the journey, one way, so probably 18 days round trip including turnaround. That would mean 20 trips per year. I think the ship is also used for Atlas V and will be used for the last Delta IV Heavies.If Rocketship can carry an average of two or more Vulcans, this will not constrain the launch rate. Is there an alternate means of transport?How to ULA rockets get to Vandenberg?Atlas V rockets are just small enough to be loaded on an Antonov AN-124 aircraft and flown to either Canaveral or Vandenberg.I'm curious, has this capability been demonstrated before?
ULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later. A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 01/24/2023 04:53 pmULA and its predecessor Lockheed Martin are highly respected and competent organizations. ULA's current active launcher is Atlas V and Vulcan is widely perceived as its technological descendant in many ways.The first Atlas V launch was in August 2002. The second launch was in May 2003, nine months later. A first flight is usually considered to be a test flight for a reason, and it takes time to evaluate it even it even if it is perfect.If Vulcan's first flight is in March 2023, when will the second flight occur?Sierra Nevada Corporation [said] that the first Dream Chaser orbital launch will take place in the summer of this year, but because no firm date has yet been set the first orbital flight of the Dream Chaser, and the NextSpaceFlight website has changed the number of Vulcan launches planned for 2023 to five, it is possible that the second Vulcan launch could occur in Q3 2023.