Author Topic: Predictions 2023  (Read 59318 times)

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #60 on: 03/11/2023 09:40 am »
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex
starship flys 3 times
The oft is a success with  booster 7 being caught  by the OLIT
the second starship flight is with booster 9 and ship 26

the third and final flight launches starlink v2 (6)for the first time.
Falcon 9 flys 90 times falcon heavy flies 5 times including ussf 52 via sat 3, ussf 67 psyche and another un specified mission
That about all of my predictions


Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉
« Last Edit: 09/04/2023 11:26 pm by Kspbutitscursed »
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-4                 #Wen Booster 12/13 engines installation

Offline freddo411

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1136
  • Liked: 1294
  • Likes Given: 3678
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #61 on: 03/11/2023 01:08 pm »
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex

... snip ...

Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉

Welcome to the forum.  I hope your predictions are correct.   I'm ready to see SH + SS fly

Offline RoadWithoutEnd

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 283
  • Liked: 341
  • Likes Given: 441
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #62 on: 03/11/2023 04:51 pm »
An integrated New Glenn doesn't show up on pad until late 2026, nor does it launch until 2027.  This is the medium optimist view.

Artemis 2 will be lucky to occur in late 2026, with 2027 being more viable.

 
Walk the road without end, and all tomorrows unfold like music.

Offline Phil Stooke

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1434
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1518
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #63 on: 03/11/2023 05:06 pm »
"Artemis 2 will be lucky to occur in late 2026, with 2027 being more viable."

I hope that's a typo and you meant Artemis 3.  For Artemis 2 it seems a trifle pessimistic.

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #64 on: 03/11/2023 07:16 pm »
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex

... snip ...

Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉

Welcome to the forum.  I hope your predictions are correct.   I'm ready to see SH + SS fly

Aww thanks for that was my first post so thank you
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-4                 #Wen Booster 12/13 engines installation

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1687
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #65 on: 03/20/2023 02:57 pm »
An integrated New Glenn doesn't show up on pad until late 2026, nor does it launch until 2027.  This is the medium optimist view.

Artemis 2 will be lucky to occur in late 2026, with 2027 being more viable.
NASA now says that Artemis 2 is scheduled to launch in November 2024. Likewise, internal NASA FY 2024 budget documents indicate that Artemis 3 will be launched in late 2025.

Links:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/space/artemis/os-bz-nasa-artemis-ii-november-2024-artemis-i-issues-20230307-soid4ju5mvf4tmuoo3rwpg6rf4-story.html
https://spacenews.com/nasa-planning-to-spend-up-to-1-billion-on-space-station-deorbit-module/
https://interestingengineering.com/innovation/nasa-moon-mission-launch-late-2024

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1687
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #66 on: 05/13/2023 10:09 pm »
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex

... snip ...

Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉

Welcome to the forum.  I hope your predictions are correct.   I'm ready to see SH + SS fly
The Starship rocket finally made its first flight last month. Regarding my prediction months ago about the timing of the start of free flights of the Talon-A spaceplane, the first free flight of the Talon-A spaceplane took place today:
https://twitter.com/Stratolaunch/status/1657481241455902725

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 839
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 285
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #67 on: 07/09/2023 04:48 am »
Exoplanet of Earth mass and distance from star for liquid water to exist found within 40 light years

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolf_1069

This wasn't that unexpected
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline Vahe231991

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1687
  • 11 Canyon Terrace
  • Liked: 465
  • Likes Given: 199
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #68 on: 08/09/2023 03:25 am »
My predictions for the remainder of 2023:
- The China National Space Administration gives recommendation to Chinese aerospace industry to develop a horizontal take-off and landing spaceplane powered by a RBCC engine to achieve orbit and loft small communications satellites into orbit
- SpaceShipThree makes its first flight
- Four SpaceShipTwo passenger flights in Q4 2023, including one on the 20th anniversary of SpaceShipOne's first powered flight
- North Korea carries out a second launch of the Chollima-1 in early September
- Second H3 launch reaches orbit
- JAXA awards Mitsubishi Heavy Industries a study contract for a human-rated variant of the H3 able to loft a Dragon 2-type spacecraft or Dream Chaser-like spaceplane
- South Africa commences construction of the first example of the Cheetah SLV
- Taiwan conducts second flight of the Hapith I
- One Angara A5 launch
« Last Edit: 08/27/2023 09:13 pm by Vahe231991 »

Offline Hog

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2857
  • Woodstock
  • Liked: 1714
  • Likes Given: 6979
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #69 on: 08/09/2023 02:06 pm »
My predictions for the remainder of 2023:
- The China National Space Administration gives recommendation to Chinese aerospace industry to develop a horizontal take-off and landing spaceplane powered by a RBCC engine to achieve orbit and loft small communications satellites into orbit
- SpaceShipThree makes its first flight
- Four SpaceShipTwo passenger flights in Q4 2023, including one on the 20th anniversary of SpaceShipOne's first powered flight
- North Korea carries out a second launch of the Chollima-1 in early September
- Second H3 launch reaches orbit
- JAXA awards Mitsubishi Heavy Industries a study contract for a human-rate variant of the H3 able to loft a Dragon 2-type spacecraft or Dream Chaser-like spaceplane
- South Africa commences construction of the first example of the Cheetah SLV
- Taiwan conducts second flight of the Hapith I
- One Angara A5 launch
We're in the 8th month of 2023.  The tradition of "Predictions threads" here at NSF.com is to make a prediction before the year actually starts, then review after a year has passed.
Paul

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 839
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 285
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #70 on: 09/04/2023 04:37 pm »
Time to see how I did.

SLS flies at least once

Of course not. What was I thinking?

Starship doesn’t fly

Also totally off.

At least one space tourist goes to the international space station

This happened. 1 point.

Rocket lab flies at least once

This was a gimme. 1 point.

NASA Perseverance rover finds more evidence of past water

Perseverance found some stuff, but not more evidence of past water. 0 points.

NASA Curiosity rover finds more organic molecules

Not this year. 0 points.

CO2 found in the atmosphere of another exoplanet

CO2 was found at HD 209458b, but that was last year. 0 points.

Exoplanet of Earth mass and distance from star for liquid water to exist found within 40 light years

This happened. 1 point.

More water found on moon

not this year. 0 points.

Asteroid passes close to Earth but doesn’t hit Earth

This happened. 1 point.

Well, 5 out of 10 this year. It could have been worse.

edit: I got 5/10, not 4/10
« Last Edit: 09/11/2023 03:35 pm by scienceguy »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline scienceguy

  • Regular
  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 839
  • Lethbridge, Alberta
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 285
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #71 on: 09/11/2023 03:35 pm »
e^(pi*i) = -1

Offline catdlr

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15365
  • Enthusiast since the Redstone and Thunderbirds
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 13300
  • Likes Given: 10155
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #72 on: 12/26/2023 01:06 pm »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline sdsds

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 7709
  • “With peace and hope for all mankind.”
  • Seattle
  • Liked: 2459
  • Likes Given: 2292
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #73 on: 12/28/2023 12:34 am »
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:

SpaceX:
 - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times.
 - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy.
 - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.

Wrong, wrong and wrong.

Quote
SLS/Orion:
 - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.

Now no earlier than November 2024, so correct.

Quote
Crew to ISS:
 - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100.
 - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.

First wrong; second correct.

Quote
Cargo to ISS:
 - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.

Easily correct.

Quote
Crew to CSS:
 - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.

Correct.

Quote
Robotic Lunar:
 - Highly mixed success
    + a few missions fail spectacularly
    + at least one mission succeeds with notable results
    + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity

Correct, correct (Chandrayaan-3), and correct (LOL).

Quote
Launch Systems:
 - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful
- Japan's H3 flies at least once
...
- Angara-A5 flies as least once
- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time
- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024

Wrong on Vulcan; H3 flew, albeit unsuccessfully; wrong on Angara A5; NewSpace ... nope; New Glenn is now no earlier than August 2024.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline Skamp_X

  • Member
  • Posts: 68
  • Belgium
  • Liked: 22
  • Likes Given: 18
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #74 on: 12/31/2023 09:07 pm »
Artimis 2 net 2025
star ship orbital test before end of year.
Hardware made to transport starships with boats between Boca Chica and cape
Demos or phobos gets major work done to catch booster and/or starship
Plans will explain 2nd tower at cape will be for catching booster only , at first, launch from first tower.
Legs' on star ship have a comeback.
No contact with ET
First EXo moon is confirmed
New pluto sized object is found in outer solar system
Voyager 1 stops transmitting (really hope not)

Artimis 2025 , still pretty sure its gonna be 2025
Star ship orbital test flight before end of year, gonna be a no, even if i kept it vage saying test flight so win or fail would have counted , this flight was still sub-orbital.
No word on transporting starship harware between launsites (yet?).
Phobos and demos both got sold.
Next tower for catch only? Still possible.
Legs on starship....no word on it so no,for now.
ET din't phone us.
No exo moons found.
No new dwarf planets found.
Voyager 1 stops transmitting.... this might be somewhat correct :(
Atm it's transmitting garbled info in a loop, yes its still transmitting (nonsense) and receiving (they did get it to reboot) , but unless they figure out a solution, then communications might indeed be lost...

Offline Eric Hedman

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2510
  • The birthplace of the solid body electric guitar
  • Liked: 2212
  • Likes Given: 1316
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #75 on: 01/01/2024 07:32 am »
Time to review:

NASA
   Announces crew for Artemis II by July 4th
   Gets 2 more countries to sign Artemis Accords
   Proposals for lunar habitat emerge
   Continued progress on Artemis II
      EUS on schedule
      Costs stay ridiculously high
   Budget proposed late 2023 for 2024 will be roughly equal to inflation increase
I got the crew announcement right.
Pleased that more than 2 countries signed the Artemis Accords
I didn't expect the most detailed proposal for a lunar base to come from China

Blue origin
   New Glenn gets pulled out to pad by end of summer. (at least first stage)
      Set of flight engines for first booster mounted on First stage by end of July
                Start test firing of engines on pad by end of year
                Reusable second stage will have small wings like first stage for greater cross range on landing and
                          bleed off speed higher in atmosphere to reduce heating of stage body.
      Make official that three variants of reusable upper stage are planned for coming decade
         Cargo (capable of rendezvous and docking payload)
            Recoverable launch shroud fished out of water
            Pressurized cargo module with new larger docking hatch for Orbital Reef station
         Tanker can go lunar orbit and back /w refueling
         Crewed with up to 8 passengers and crew, (LEO and LUNAR orbit)
Blue continued to be painfully slow - a failed group of predictions

   HLS proposal now fully reusable from beginning.  Can use Lox from Moon to increase cargo capacity
                for return to orbit.
Blue's design is to be reusable from the beginning.

Small launch providers
   Several will start going out of business because too many exist for potential market
The squeeze is definitely on with small sats flying ride share on larger rockets.

SpaceX
   Starship to orbit on first attempt Q1 2023
   Mechazilla landing attempt successful Q3
   No in orbit refueling before end of year
        HLS progress stays on schedule
                Basic cabin and cargo bay design done.
Overly optimistic.  Maybe by the end of this year.

Virgin galactic
   Still don’t care
I was right, I no longer care.

ULA
   Vulcan Successfully puts Peregrine Lunar Lander on course to Moon Q2
                Peregrine successfully lands on Moon
                Gets at least four more sets of BE-4 flight engines for Vulcan in 2023
                2 more successful flights by end of year
A little too optimistic

Boeing
        CST-100 one flight with crew to ISS
Sigh.  Boeing needs their butt kicked.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #76 on: 01/01/2024 08:57 am »
Scoring my 2023 predictions:
Score - Correct (1), Incorrect (0), Partially correct (0.5), ? - To be determined (0)

SpaceX related predictions:
Quote
1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.
1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.
1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).
1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).

2) Falcon 9 family.
2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.
2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.
2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.
2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.

3) Starship
3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A
3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.
3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.
3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starlink Gen2 deployment.

4) Starlink
4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.
4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.
I didn't do very well - mostly to optimistic. 5.5 out of 13

Orbital rockets (besides Starship) in development as of December 2022 that originally were predicted to have a first launch date of 2020 or earlier:
Quote
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.
5.1) Not all orbital launch vehicles that make their debut in 2023 will achieve all the intermediary goals of their launch prior to reaching their intended orbit (to include the specific case of transatmospheric orbit).
5.2) In case of failure of a launch vehicle, at least one launch provider company would claim that although it failed to reach orbit, it met what they consider the most challenging goals for that first mission
? 5.3) An orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2023 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch as well.
6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.
? 7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.
Did better in this section - 3 out of 5 although it could eventually get up to 5 out of 5. Composite til here 8.5 out of 18

Startup rocket companies:
Quote
8) At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.

? 9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.
Eventually it might be as high as 1 out of 2. Composite 8.5 out of 20

General:
Quote
10) Rocket Lab predictions:
10.1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.
10.2) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.

11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.

? 12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.
? 12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal.

13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload.

? 14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches.

15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.

16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.

17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.

18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true.
In this section I'm not certain about two predictions. 6 out of 11 for a final score of 14.5 out of 31.


Offline catdlr

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 15365
  • Enthusiast since the Redstone and Thunderbirds
  • Marina del Rey, California, USA
  • Liked: 13300
  • Likes Given: 10155
Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #77 on: 01/01/2024 11:38 pm »
It's Tony De La Rosa, ...I don't create this stuff, I just report it.

Offline Kspbutitscursed

Re: Predictions 2023
« Reply #78 on: 05/08/2024 01:53 am »
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex
starship flys 3 times
The oft is a success with  booster 7 being caught  by the OLIT
the second starship flight is with booster 9 and ship 26

the third and final flight launches starlink v2 (6)for the first time.
Falcon 9 flys 90 times falcon heavy flies 5 times including ussf 52 via sat 3, ussf 67 psyche and another un specified mission
That about all of my predictions


Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉

Lol i guess i was  a bit too optimistic for starship but apart from that i was bang on
I attempt to fly in ksp
WEN OFT-4                 #Wen Booster 12/13 engines installation

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1