My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex ... snip ...Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉
Quote from: Kspbutitscursed on 03/11/2023 09:40 amMy prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex ... snip ...Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉 Welcome to the forum. I hope your predictions are correct. I'm ready to see SH + SS fly
An integrated New Glenn doesn't show up on pad until late 2026, nor does it launch until 2027. This is the medium optimist view.Artemis 2 will be lucky to occur in late 2026, with 2027 being more viable.
Exoplanet of Earth mass and distance from star for liquid water to exist found within 40 light years
My predictions for the remainder of 2023:- The China National Space Administration gives recommendation to Chinese aerospace industry to develop a horizontal take-off and landing spaceplane powered by a RBCC engine to achieve orbit and loft small communications satellites into orbit- SpaceShipThree makes its first flight- Four SpaceShipTwo passenger flights in Q4 2023, including one on the 20th anniversary of SpaceShipOne's first powered flight- North Korea carries out a second launch of the Chollima-1 in early September- Second H3 launch reaches orbit- JAXA awards Mitsubishi Heavy Industries a study contract for a human-rate variant of the H3 able to loft a Dragon 2-type spacecraft or Dream Chaser-like spaceplane- South Africa commences construction of the first example of the Cheetah SLV- Taiwan conducts second flight of the Hapith I- One Angara A5 launch
SLS flies at least once
Starship doesn’t fly
At least one space tourist goes to the international space station
Rocket lab flies at least once
NASA Perseverance rover finds more evidence of past water
NASA Curiosity rover finds more organic molecules
CO2 found in the atmosphere of another exoplanet
More water found on moon
Asteroid passes close to Earth but doesn’t hit Earth
Spaceflight Predictions for 2023:SpaceX: - Starship/SuperHeavy vehicles lift off the pad (under their own power) 3, 4, or 5 times. - At least one Starship reaches a trajectory with orbital-equivalent energy. - Number of Falcon launches (F9 + FH) less than 115% of the Falcon launches in 2022.
SLS/Orion: - Artemis 2 date slips to NET 4Q 2024.
Crew to ISS: - Boeing flies a successful crewed flight test of CST-100. - All other crewed flights to ISS are on Dragon and Soyuz; no mishaps.
Cargo to ISS: - Both Dragon and Cygnus fly successful cargo missions.
Crew to CSS: - China maintains uninterrupted occupancy of its space station.
Robotic Lunar: - Highly mixed success + a few missions fail spectacularly + at least one mission succeeds with notable results + most missions fade into unsuccessful obscurity
Launch Systems: - Vulcan flies at least once; likely twice, likely both successful- Japan's H3 flies at least once...- Angara-A5 flies as least once- More than one NewSpace US launch system reaches orbit for the first time- New Glenn's first flight slips to 2024
Artimis 2 net 2025star ship orbital test before end of year.Hardware made to transport starships with boats between Boca Chica and capeDemos or phobos gets major work done to catch booster and/or starshipPlans will explain 2nd tower at cape will be for catching booster only , at first, launch from first tower.Legs' on star ship have a comeback.No contact with ETFirst EXo moon is confirmedNew pluto sized object is found in outer solar systemVoyager 1 stops transmitting (really hope not)
NASA Announces crew for Artemis II by July 4th Gets 2 more countries to sign Artemis Accords Proposals for lunar habitat emerge Continued progress on Artemis II EUS on schedule Costs stay ridiculously high Budget proposed late 2023 for 2024 will be roughly equal to inflation increase
Blue origin New Glenn gets pulled out to pad by end of summer. (at least first stage) Set of flight engines for first booster mounted on First stage by end of July Start test firing of engines on pad by end of year Reusable second stage will have small wings like first stage for greater cross range on landing and bleed off speed higher in atmosphere to reduce heating of stage body. Make official that three variants of reusable upper stage are planned for coming decade Cargo (capable of rendezvous and docking payload) Recoverable launch shroud fished out of water Pressurized cargo module with new larger docking hatch for Orbital Reef station Tanker can go lunar orbit and back /w refueling Crewed with up to 8 passengers and crew, (LEO and LUNAR orbit)
HLS proposal now fully reusable from beginning. Can use Lox from Moon to increase cargo capacity for return to orbit.
Small launch providers Several will start going out of business because too many exist for potential market
SpaceX Starship to orbit on first attempt Q1 2023 Mechazilla landing attempt successful Q3 No in orbit refueling before end of year HLS progress stays on schedule Basic cabin and cargo bay design done.
Virgin galactic Still don’t care
ULA Vulcan Successfully puts Peregrine Lunar Lander on course to Moon Q2 Peregrine successfully lands on Moon Gets at least four more sets of BE-4 flight engines for Vulcan in 2023 2 more successful flights by end of year
Boeing CST-100 one flight with crew to ISS
SpaceX related predictions:Quote1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.▲ 1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.▲ 1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).▲ 1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).2) Falcon 9 family.▼ 2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.▼ 2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.↕ 2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.▲ 2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.3) Starship▲ 3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A ▼ 3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.▼ 3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.▼ 3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starlink Gen2 deployment.4) Starlink▼ 4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.▼ 4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.I didn't do very well - mostly to optimistic. 5.5 out of 13Orbital rockets (besides Starship) in development as of December 2022 that originally were predicted to have a first launch date of 2020 or earlier:Quote5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.▲ 5.1) Not all orbital launch vehicles that make their debut in 2023 will achieve all the intermediary goals of their launch prior to reaching their intended orbit (to include the specific case of transatmospheric orbit).▲ 5.2) In case of failure of a launch vehicle, at least one launch provider company would claim that although it failed to reach orbit, it met what they consider the most challenging goals for that first mission? 5.3) An orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2023 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch as well.▲ 6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.? 7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.Did better in this section - 3 out of 5 although it could eventually get up to 5 out of 5. Composite til here 8.5 out of 18Startup rocket companies:Quote▼ At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.? 9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.Eventually it might be as high as 1 out of 2. Composite 8.5 out of 20General:Quote10) Rocket Lab predictions:▼ 10.1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.▲ 10.2) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.▲ 11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.? 12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.? 12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal. ▼ 13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload. ? 14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches. ▲ 15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.▲ 16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.▲ 17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.▲ 18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true. In this section I'm not certain about two predictions. 6 out of 11 for a final score of 14.5 out of 31.
1) SpaceX will set a new company orbital launch record in 2023.▲ 1.1) Most launches by a single type of rocket with the Falcon 9.▲ 1.2) Most launches involving a rocket family (Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy).▲ 1.3) Most total orbital launches by a single launch provider (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship).2) Falcon 9 family.▼ 2.1) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 20 launches in H1 2023.▼ 2.2) A Falcon 9 booster will reach 25 launches in H2 2023 Might be a different booster than the first one to reach 20 launches.↕ 2.3) SpaceX will lose at least one Falcon 9 or Falcon Heavy side booster during a failed landing attempt.▲ 2.4) SpaceX will chose to expend more Falcon Heavy core stages than they attempt to recover. If there are multiple recovery attempts, not all will be successful.3) Starship▲ 3.1) Starship will launch between 2 and 4 orbital missions from Boca Chica. Up to two possible orbital launches from LC39A ▼ 3.2) Booster stage caught on one Boca Chica mission, although plans would be made to catch it sooner.▼ 3.3) Starship Stage caught at least once.▼ 3.4) Only operational Starship missions would involve Starlink Gen2 deployment.4) Starlink▼ 4.1) The first Starlink constellation (gen 1) will be complete before the end of Q2 2023.▼ 4.2) Test deployment of Gen2 Starlink by Starship.
5) At least one will finally launch for what is planned to be an orbital mission.▲ 5.1) Not all orbital launch vehicles that make their debut in 2023 will achieve all the intermediary goals of their launch prior to reaching their intended orbit (to include the specific case of transatmospheric orbit).▲ 5.2) In case of failure of a launch vehicle, at least one launch provider company would claim that although it failed to reach orbit, it met what they consider the most challenging goals for that first mission? 5.3) An orbital launch vehicle making it debut in 2023 that reached orbit on it's first launch will have a less than successful second launch as well.▲ 6) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022, was still publicly expected to launch in 2023 based on information by the launch provider, will be postponed to 2024 or later.? 7) At least one launch services provider will admit that an early (before fifth) orbital launch of their new orbital launch vehicle was not a complete success.
▼ At least one startup orbital rocket company will close it's doors before it's first launch.? 9) At least one startup orbital rocket that has closed it's doors between 2018 and and of 2023 will be the focus of an official government investigation into possible misuse of investor's funds.
10) Rocket Lab predictions:▼ 10.1) Rocket Lab will set a new company record for Electron launches in 2023.▲ 10.2) Electron will launch from Wallops for the first time in H1 2023.▲ 11) At least one but not all launch providers who announces a goal of launching a certain number of orbital missions in 2023 will miss their initial goal.? 12) At least one but not all launch providers that increases their expectation for the total number of orbital launches, will miss that updated goal.? 12.1) 50/50 that launch provider will not even achieve their original goal. ▼ 13) At least one orbital launch vehicle that on 31 December 2022 had more than 20 consecutive successful orbital launches will have a less than successful launch, possibly without a loss of payload. ? 14) Blue Origin will make the news more often in 2023 because of lawsuits by or against them than they will for their own orbital launches. ▲ 15) More than one topic started in the NASASpaceFlight forum after 1 January 2023 will be completely off topic within a month.▲ 16) There will be a 'Predictions for 2024' topic started before the end of 2023.▲ 17) Many of the predictions posted by other members in this topic will not happen.▲ 18) Some predictions made in this topic that do happen will see a majority wishing that prediction hadn't come true. In this section I'm not certain about two predictions. 6 out of 11 for a final score of 14.5 out of 31.
My prediction for the rest of 2023 for spacex starship flys 3 times The oft is a success with booster 7 being caught by the OLIT the second starship flight is with booster 9 and ship 26 the third and final flight launches starlink v2 (6)for the first time. Falcon 9 flys 90 times falcon heavy flies 5 times including ussf 52 via sat 3, ussf 67 psyche and another un specified mission That about all of my predictions Disclaimer: these predictions were made on march 11 2023 thus I already know some of the results 😉