Author Topic: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread  (Read 425000 times)

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #20 on: 10/30/2020 12:25 am »
Confirmed:

Nov 05 SLC-40
B1062.1 - GPS III SV04 Sacagawea

Nov 10 SLC-4E
B1063.1 - Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

Nov 15 LC-39A
B1061.1 - Dragon C207 Resilience (Crew-1)

Unconfirmed:

Nov 17-19  SLC-40
B1059.5 - NROL-108

Quote
NROL-108 is confirmed to use B1059.5 for launch. There was a lot of smooth talking to slot this behind the NASA and USSF launches. With Crew-1 taking up LC-39A, SLC-40 is the logical choice. Timetable can be compressed a bit with more shifts during integration and testing.

We have a NET launch date, November 18
Quote
RocketRocketLAUNCH UPDATE: The next NRO launch to watch is NROL-101 on an #AtlasV with
@ulalaunch
 on Nov. 3 from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, followed by NROL-108 on a #Falcon9 with
@SpaceX
 NET 18 Nov, also from CCAFS.
@45thSpaceWing

https://twitter.com/NatReconOfc/status/1321926366149959681

Right in the middle of expected range.

GPS III SV04 got moved to 04 Nov, means 14 day  turnaround on the HIF due to USSF workflow.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2020 12:38 am by Jansen »

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #21 on: 10/30/2020 11:56 am »
Since November schedule got a bit clearer,
here is updated "FPIP-chart"
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=43418.msg1704237#msg1704237

Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #22 on: 10/30/2020 12:46 pm »
November looks so busy, that's really exciting.

Hard to say what happens during Thanksgiving in the final week.  But 6 flights wouldn't be impossible.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #23 on: 10/30/2020 12:55 pm »
November looks so busy, that's really exciting.

Hard to say what happens during Thanksgiving in the final week.  But 6 flights wouldn't be impossible.

If the weather holds up, Turksat 5A would be the sixth launch in November. But it would have to use B1051.7 as that would be the only booster available.

Online smoliarm

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #24 on: 10/30/2020 01:33 pm »
November looks so busy, that's really exciting.

Hard to say what happens during Thanksgiving in the final week.  But 6 flights wouldn't be impossible.

If the weather holds up, Turksat 5A would be the sixth launch in November. But it would have to use B1051.7 as that would be the only booster available.
For November launch Turksat should be in Cape already. Otherwise - launch will be in Dec or 2021.

An even if SpaceX does just next two launches *as scheduled* - it will be two new records on *fast launch cadence*.

Online mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #25 on: 10/30/2020 01:43 pm »
November looks so busy, that's really exciting.

Hard to say what happens during Thanksgiving in the final week.  But 6 flights wouldn't be impossible.

If the weather holds up, Turksat 5A would be the sixth launch in November. But it would have to use B1051.7 as that would be the only booster available.

Is B1049.7 already committed to another flight?

Edit: Oh, I see, you're assuming SXM-7 on B1049.7 and then Turksat 5A on B1051.7.
« Last Edit: 10/30/2020 01:49 pm by mandrewa »

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #26 on: 10/30/2020 02:01 pm »
November looks so busy, that's really exciting.

Hard to say what happens during Thanksgiving in the final week.  But 6 flights wouldn't be impossible.

If the weather holds up, Turksat 5A would be the sixth launch in November. But it would have to use B1051.7 as that would be the only booster available.

Is B1049.7 already committed to another flight?

Edit: Oh, I see, you're assuming SXM-7 on B1049.7 and then Turksat 5A on B1051.7.

B1049.7 will launch either Starlink v1.0 L15 as a flight leader or SXM-7 due to contractual commitments.

Itís the only booster available, but it *will* be available per the contract. So the onus will be shifted to Sirius XM on whether they want to delay to a later booster or not.

However, I have doubts that they have paid for this privilege like NASA and USSF do.

Offline DreamyPickle

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #27 on: 10/31/2020 02:03 am »
The scheduled for November looks more crowded than usual, there's a good chance that this will be the first month with 4 flights.

Offline Norm38

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #28 on: 11/06/2020 04:06 pm »
So the launch orders flipped a lot in the last two weeks, but for the next set, three launches in a week is pretty impressive if it holds.


2020-11-14*1949/-5   F9   1061           S   CCtCap Crew-1
2020-11-18 (NET)       F9   1059.5         L   NROL-108
2020-11-21  0917/-8   F9   1063           L   Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #29 on: 11/07/2020 03:08 pm »
Wow, a lot of recent changes as NASA and SpaceX try to catch up on their backlog.

Confirmed:

Nov 15 LC-39A
B1061.1 - Dragon C207 Resilience (Crew-1)

Nov 18  SLC-40
B1059.5 - NROL-108

Nov 21 SLC-4E
B1063.1 - Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

Dec 2 LC-39A
B1058.4 - CRS 21

Unconfirmed:

Nov 27-30? SLC-40
B1049.7 - SXM-7 or Starlink

Early Dec (6-9?) SLC-40
B1051.7 - Turksat 5A

Dec 18 LC-39A or SLC-40
B1060.4 - Transporter 1

Rationale:

There are currently only six regular F9 boosters available.

B1049 - Storage
B1051 - Reprocessing
B1058 - Reprocessing for CRS-21
B1059 - Prep NROL-108 SLC-40
B1060 - Reprocessing from Starlink v1.0 L14
B1062 - Reserved GPS III SV05

NSSL and NASA have priority over commercial flights. 18 days between Crew-1 and CRS-21 doesnít leave enough time for a launch at LC-39A due to NASA workflow.

Normally a flight time leader would be used on a Starlink launch, but there are only 5 boosters for 5 launches. So B1049.7 looks like the booster for  SXM7 unless they want to delay it into mid-January when a less experienced booster is available.  This would mean Starlink v1.0 L15 goes up in its place. 9 days is the fastest turnaround at SLC-40.

Turksat 5A is currently scheduled for early December. B1051.7 would be the only booster available during that timeframe if B1049.7 goes up. Will probably require that to go up first as a flight time leader. SLC-40 will have the only HIF available at that time. Dec 6 would be 49 day booster turnaround and 9 day launchpad turnaround.

B1060.4 could turnaround in time (~Dec8-13) for  the Dec 18 targeted launch of Transporter 1. Will probably launch from LC-39A.

At that point all boosters will require reprocessing. With the holidays at end of December, it seems unlikely that we will see any launches until mid January when B1059.6 and B1063.2 become available. This is based on the assumption that B1067 will be a Falcon Heavy booster.
« Last Edit: 11/07/2020 03:13 pm by Jansen »

Offline su27k

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #30 on: 11/07/2020 03:34 pm »
My guess is they'll use B1060.4 for SXM-7 or Turksat 5A, the two .7 will be used on their own missions: Starlink and Transporter 1. And I think they'll put B1062 to use before the next GPS.

Offline klod

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #31 on: 11/07/2020 03:39 pm »
No, 1062 will be waiting for the next GPS launch.

Offline Orbiter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #32 on: 11/07/2020 04:33 pm »
Definitely does seem like there's a bit of a booster shortage if SpaceX hasn't improved their booster turnaround time. I bet Turksat-5A gets pushed.
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Online mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #33 on: 11/07/2020 06:42 pm »
The shortest time, so far, between launches on the same booster is 51 days.  This has
happened twice, from 1058.1 to 1058.2 and 1060.2 to 1060.3.  So it's a bit optimistic,
but it's credible to assume a booster will be ready 51 days after it's most recent launch.

So other than the boosters that are already committed to various flights, what boosters
are available before the end of the year?

I count four: 1049.7, 1051.7, 1060.4, and 1062.2.

1049.7 and 1051.7 are available now or will be in the immediate future.
1060.4 may be available by 12/14/2020.
1062.2 may be available by 12/26/2020.

So what is the order of priority?  I imagine SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and Starlink 16.

If the owners of SXM-7 and Turksat 5A both choose to use *.7 boosters then the launch priority
will be SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and then Starlink 16.

If one of these companies chooses not to use a *.7 booster, then it will have to wait for
12/14/2020, when booster 1060.4 might be ready.  In that event Starlink 16 may go before
Transporter 1, because it is ready now.

If both companies choose not to use a *.7 booster, then it will be Starlink 16 first and
then it's a question of whether Transporter 1 goes next because the desired Transporter 1
launch date isn't until the middle of December anyway.

All of these are timings are contingent upon 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 launching
on time.

Another potential confounding factor is pad turn around time.  Pad 39A is probably committed
to 1061.1 and 1058.4 before it is available for anything else.  If I estimate 10 days between
launches on a single pad, that means ideally Pad 39A becomes available on 12/12/2020 and
Pad 40 becomes available on 11/28/2020.

So in the best case that would be one more flight on Pad 39A for 2020 and three more on
Pad 40 for 2020, and this is after 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 have launched. 
In that case the last launch pad opportunity for Pad 40 is on 12/27/2020.  And to repeat, for
that last flight to make 12/27/2020, you have to have seven flights go off without a hitch
before it.

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #34 on: 11/07/2020 07:06 pm »
The shortest time, so far, between launches on the same booster is 51 days.  This has
happened twice, from 1058.1 to 1058.2 and 1060.2 to 1060.3.  So it's a bit optimistic,
but it's credible to assume a booster will be ready 51 days after it's most recent launch.

So other than the boosters that are already committed to various flights, what boosters
are available before the end of the year?

I count four: 1049.7, 1051.7, 1060.4, and 1062.2.

1049.7 and 1051.7 are available now or will be in the immediate future.
1060.4 may be available by 12/14/2020.
1062.2 may be available by 12/26/2020.

So what is the order of priority?  I imagine SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and Starlink 16.

If the owners of SXM-7 and Turksat 5A both choose to use *.7 boosters then the launch priority
will be SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and then Starlink 16.

If one of these companies chooses not to use a *.7 booster, then it will have to wait for
12/14/2020, when booster 1060.4 might be ready.  In that event Starlink 16 may go before
Transporter 1, because it is ready now.

If both companies choose not to use a *.7 booster, then it will be Starlink 16 first and
then it's a question of whether Transporter 1 goes next because the desired Transporter 1
launch date isn't until the middle of December anyway.

All of these are timings are contingent upon 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 launching
on time.

Another potential confounding factor is pad turn around time.  Pad 39A is probably committed
to 1061.1 and 1058.4 before it is available for anything else.  If I estimate 10 days between
launches on a single pad, that means ideally Pad 39A becomes available on 12/12/2020 and
Pad 40 becomes available on 11/28/2020.

So in the best case that would be one more flight on Pad 39A for 2020 and three more on
Pad 40 for 2020, and this is after 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 have launched. 
In that case the last launch pad opportunity for Pad 40 is on 12/27/2020.  And to repeat, for
that last flight to make 12/27/2020, you have to have seven flights go off without a hitch
before it.

Interesting conjecture, but there are a few points you may not be aware of.

B1062 is specifically reserved for USSF testing and analysis of booster refurbishment methodology. It is not likely to fly until the next GPS mission because it will be used for verification of the new workflow.

Turksat 5A is a politically sensitive launch for the Erdogan regime. They have a lot at stake with this launch and are highly unlikely to delay it.

The boosters on the referenced 51 day turnarounds were actually ready at 45 and 47 days. Weather was the primary reason for their delays. 45 days is doable, but 50 might be a good nominal target. Thatís why I put a range of Dec 8-13.

The dates I have used for Turksat 5A and Transport-1 are from statements and filings made within the last 3 days. SXM-7/Starlink are the only ones Iím unsure of, but both payloads are onsite at the PPF.

If you look at where Iíve plugged everything, it fits with established ranges for turnaround. Things are always subject to change, but this is based on the latest available info.

Online mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #35 on: 11/07/2020 07:38 pm »
The shortest time, so far, between launches on the same booster is 51 days.  This has
happened twice, from 1058.1 to 1058.2 and 1060.2 to 1060.3.  So it's a bit optimistic,
but it's credible to assume a booster will be ready 51 days after it's most recent launch.

So other than the boosters that are already committed to various flights, what boosters
are available before the end of the year?

I count four: 1049.7, 1051.7, 1060.4, and 1062.2.

1049.7 and 1051.7 are available now or will be in the immediate future.
1060.4 may be available by 12/14/2020.
1062.2 may be available by 12/26/2020.

So what is the order of priority?  I imagine SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and Starlink 16.

If the owners of SXM-7 and Turksat 5A both choose to use *.7 boosters then the launch priority
will be SXM-7, Turksat 5A, Transporter 1, and then Starlink 16.

If one of these companies chooses not to use a *.7 booster, then it will have to wait for
12/14/2020, when booster 1060.4 might be ready.  In that event Starlink 16 may go before
Transporter 1, because it is ready now.

If both companies choose not to use a *.7 booster, then it will be Starlink 16 first and
then it's a question of whether Transporter 1 goes next because the desired Transporter 1
launch date isn't until the middle of December anyway.

All of these are timings are contingent upon 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 launching
on time.

Another potential confounding factor is pad turn around time.  Pad 39A is probably committed
to 1061.1 and 1058.4 before it is available for anything else.  If I estimate 10 days between
launches on a single pad, that means ideally Pad 39A becomes available on 12/12/2020 and
Pad 40 becomes available on 11/28/2020.

So in the best case that would be one more flight on Pad 39A for 2020 and three more on
Pad 40 for 2020, and this is after 1061.1, 1059.4, 1063.1, and 1058.4 have launched. 
In that case the last launch pad opportunity for Pad 40 is on 12/27/2020.  And to repeat, for
that last flight to make 12/27/2020, you have to have seven flights go off without a hitch
before it.

Interesting conjecture, but there are a few points you may not be aware of.

B1062 is specifically reserved for USSF testing and analysis of booster refurbishment methodology. It is not likely to fly until the next GPS mission because it will be used for verification of the new workflow.

Turksat 5A is a politically sensitive launch for the Erdogan regime. They have a lot at stake with this launch and are highly unlikely to delay it.

The boosters on the referenced 51 day turnarounds were actually ready at 45 and 47 days. Weather was the primary reason for their delays. 45 days is doable, but 50 might be a good nominal target. Thatís why I put a range of Dec 8-13.

The dates I have used for Turksat 5A and Transport-1 are from statements and filings made within the last 3 days. SXM-7/Starlink are the only ones Iím unsure of, but both payloads are onsite at the PPF.

If you look at where Iíve plugged everything, it fits with established ranges for turnaround. Things are always subject to change, but this is based on the latest available info.

That's a good point about 1062, and I wasn't aware of that.  I also wasn't aware of the political implications of the Turksat 5A launch.  So that probably means that short of things getting screwed up, Turksat 5A will launch this year on something.
« Last Edit: 11/08/2020 04:27 am by mandrewa »

Offline Orbiter

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #36 on: 11/09/2020 09:57 pm »
Anyone able to identify the boosters in this pic next to B1061?

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1325931233784680448/photo/3
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Offline AndrewRG10

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #37 on: 11/09/2020 10:16 pm »
Anyone able to identify the boosters in this pic next to B1061?

https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1325931233784680448/photo/3

B1058 due to logo, possibly b1049 cause the '49' looking serial number and not sure on the other one.

Edit: Colin has got you covered, the other one is B1051
https://twitter.com/c_fletcher22/status/1325932000394551297

Quote
Boosters in the 39A HIF: B1061 (Crew-1), B1049, B1051, and B1058 (CRS-21)
« Last Edit: 11/09/2020 10:23 pm by AndrewRG10 »

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #38 on: 11/16/2020 05:18 pm »
Still trying to get confirmation, but apparently this is what is happening.

A last minute issue with NROL-108 is causing a  delay. Possibly being moved back to NROís Eastern Processing Facility.

As a result, Starlink v1.0 L15 will go up on Nov 22, probably using B1049.7 from SLC-40.

The rest of the schedule is in flux until the issue with NROL-108 is resolved.

Everything with LC-39A and CRS-21 is unaffected.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2020 06:31 pm by Jansen »

Offline Jansen

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Re: SpaceX Manifest Discussion Thread
« Reply #39 on: 11/16/2020 09:57 pm »
Starlink v1.0 L16 discussion

The probability of a Starlink launch in December is low, but with the NROL-108 delay anything can happen.
« Last Edit: 11/16/2020 09:59 pm by Jansen »

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