SpaceX F9 : Starlink v1.0 L9 (Rideshare) : August 7, 2020

[Nomadd]

I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)

 I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
 Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.

[SteveU]

I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)

 I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
 Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.

Just-In_Time inventory control was a big fad in the early 80's when i was involved in manufacturing.  Didn't work very well then and i doubt it has aged well.  Especially in Areospace.

[zubenelgenubi]

My speculation re: launch cadence from KSC/CCAFS, as of this post:

Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2020
NET Mid-July    10    11   - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-089 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 14:54
Mid-July 14 19  - Anasis II (KMilSatCom 1, KMSC-1, URC-700K) - Falcon 9-090 (B1058.2) - Canaveral SLC-40  - 21:00-00:55
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50
July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
NET Late July  August - Starlink flight 11 (x58) [v1.0 L10], SkySat 19, SkySat 20, SkySat 21 - Falcon 9-092 (S) - Canaveral SLC-40
August ?   2   - SiriusXM SXM-7 - Falcon 9 - Canaveral SLC-40 - 04:27:00

Changes on July 9th
Changes on July 10th
Changes on July 11th
Changes on July 12th
Changes on July 13th
Changes on July 14th
zubenelgenubi

[sferrin]

I would expect plenty 2nd stages through production, but not necessarily on-site. They had seemed to try to time their deliveries of 'new' parts as late as reasonable the last time I watched closely (which was admittedly a while ago)

 I've heard from a company person that the "lean production" philosophy of getting nothing before you needed it worked about as well as most people assumed it would, and they've gone to more stock and redundancy thinking in most things.
 Schemes that require everything to go exactly as planned always seemed a little optimistic to me.

Just-In_Time inventory control was a big fad in the early 80's when i was involved in manufacturing.  Didn't work very well then and i doubt it has aged well.  Especially in Areospace.

It hasn't.  Hell, just look at the CF to the supply chain caused by coronavirus.

[Ronsmytheiii]

Vehicle rolling back to the HIF:

[zubenelgenubi]

As of immediately after the successful Falcon 9 launch of ANASIS-II from SLC-40:
Which Space Coast Falcon 9 launch will be next?  And when?

The Starlink flight from LC-39A?

Or the SAOCOM-1B launch from SLC-40?

Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2020
NET Late July  - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00
NET July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50

[wannamoonbase]

As of immediately after the successful Falcon 9 launch of ANASIS-II from SLC-40:
Which Space Coast Falcon 9 launch will be next?  And when?

The Starlink flight from LC-39A?

Or the SAOCOM-1B launch from SLC-40?

Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2020
NET Late July  - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00
NET July 25 - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50

5 day turn around on SLC40 would be a very impressive achievement.

[zubenelgenubi]

5 day turn around on SLC40 would be a very impressive achievement.

Precisely. We now think that we know that Static Fire for the SAOCOM 1B launch will occur 5 days before launch.
Ben Cooper currently has the same launch listed for late July or early August.

My hypothesis: If either the Starlink et al. payloads or the SAOCOM 1B et al. payloads are ready, then SpaceX would proceed with the launch campaign for that one launch before the Atlas V mission on July 30.  The other Falcon 9 launch would wait until afterwards.

My modified mini-schedule:

Scheduled:
Date - Satellite(s) - Rocket - Launch Site - Time (UTC)

2020
NET Late July  - Starlink flight 10 (x57) [v1.0 L9], BlackSky Global 5, BlackSky Global 6 - Falcon 9-090 (B1051.5 S) - Kennedy LC-39A - 10:00-12:00 (one Falcon 9 launch before and one Falcon 9 launch after Perseverance launch)
NET July 25 late July or early August - SAOCOM-1B, Capella 2 (Sequoia), GNOMES-1 - Falcon 9-091 (L) - Canaveral SLC-40 - 23:19 (or August) (one Falcon 9 launch before and one Falcon 9 launch after Perseverance launch)
July 30 - Mars Perseverance rover (MSL-2), Ingenuity (MHS), MMO, CubeSats - Atlas V 541 (AV-088) - Canaveral SLC-41 - 11:50-13:50

commentary by zubenelgenubi

(I would love to be surprised and have 2 MORE successful Falcon 9 launches before July 30, but I must be practical.)

[Raul]

New launch date NET July 29 according to issued NOTAM for Stage2 Debris Reentry.

MELBOURNE (FIR/FIC/ACC/COM/MET)
NOTAM #: F2077/20      Class: International      Start Date UTC: 07/29/2020 1052      End Date UTC: 07/30/2020 1108      Status: Active
F2077/20 NOTAMR F2076/20
Q) YMMM/QWMLW/IV/BO/W/000/999/5056S10832E999
A) YMMM
B) 2007291052 C) 2007301108
D) PRI RE-ENTRY 29 1052-1130
BACKUP RE-ENTRY 30 1030-1108
E) ROCKET LAUNCH
FLW RECEIVED FROM GOVERNMENT OF UNITED STATES OF AMERICA:
HAZARDOUS OPS WILL BE CONDUCTED FOR ATMOSPHERIC RE-ENTRY AND
SPLASHDOWN OF OP X0108 LAUNCH VEHICLE FALCON 9
WI THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
2846S 06255E
2716S 06305E
2743S 06502E
3856S 08255E
4342S 09236E
4619S 10020E
4912S 11102E
5041S 12231E
5103S 14326E
5014S 15650E
5040S 15702E
5509S 13852E
5523S 11812E   
5332S 10401E
5033S 09329E
4610S 08303E
4041S 07402E
3527S 06743E
3113S 06420E TO BEGINNING
F) SFC G) UNL

[Hummy]

Launch time assuming the same sequence of orbit raising manoeuvres as was planned for previous launch attempts:

2020-07-29 08:26 UTC   2020-07-29 04:26 AM EDT
2020-07-30 08:04 UTC   2020-07-30 04:04 AM EDT
2020-07-31 07:43 UTC   2020-07-31 03:43 AM EDT

[Norm38]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

[RocketLover0119]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

I would say yes because a falcon has launched from 40 with an atlas sitting next door, but with how big of a mission this is that atlas is carrying I honestly don’t know.

[wannamoonbase]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

I would say yes because a falcon has launched from 40 with an atlas sitting next door, but with how big of a mission this is that atlas is carrying I honestly don’t know.

My guess is this, that SpaceX can prepare for the 29th and if Perseverance slips a day or more they can go.  If it doesn't slip then SpaceX stands down for a few days until SLC41 is clear.

I don't imagine SpaceX wants to be even seen as getting in the way of an interplanetary launch.  There is competition between launch providers, but I think all of us space fans can appreciate missions like Perseverance.

[anof]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.

[zubenelgenubi]

Re: How close together in space and time launches can be--some commentary here.

Launch time circa 0800 UTC = 4:00 am EDT.

The Atlas V for Mars 2020 would be on the pad at SLC-41 for this early morning launch on July 29.

[IntoTheVoid]

Does the position of the NOTAM exclude the possibilty that this is for SAOCOM rather than L9, or is that just an assumption?

[Star One]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.

Does the fact that Atlas is carrying a ‘nuclear’ payload have any impact, or is that irrelevant considering all the safety features built into that payload.

[zubenelgenubi]

Does the position of the NOTAM exclude the possibilty that this is for SAOCOM rather than L9, or is that just an assumption?

See the coordinates of the polygon describing the second stage re-entry zone in the NOTMAR quoted above.  The polygon describes the southernmost section of a sinusoidal curve, which is how an orbit is projected onto the Earth's surface.  Those latitudes of those coordinates approximately match the orbit inclination of Starlink satellites.

The second stage re-entry zone for SAOCOM 1B should run roughly north-south, as it's going to a polar orbit (more exactly, a sun-synchronous orbit).

(If someone could map the NOTAM, it would be appreciated!)

EDIT: See map here.

[zubenelgenubi]

Is a July 29th launch date realistic considering Perseverance will be sitting on the pad next door?

I think it depends on when roll out of the Atlas happens. I believe in the past once Atlas is at the pad Falcon static fires or launches wait.

Does the fact that Atlas is carrying a ‘nuclear’ payload have any impact, or is that irrelevant considering all the safety features built into that payload.

Apparently, it's all approved. (I would like to read an explicit confirmation of such.)

Falcon 9 can launch on July 29 with Atlas V/MMRTG-loaded Perseverance on its pad a few miles away.  Atlas V will move from its VIF to the pad on July 28.

This would be a feat of coordination and cooperation for all involved.

[zubenelgenubi]

Re: How close together in space and time launches can be--some commentary here.

Launch time circa 0800 UTC = 4:00 am EDT.

The Atlas V for Mars 2020 would be on the pad at SLC-41 for this early morning launch on July 29.

Clarification; cross-post:

https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/

July 29 • Falcon 9 • Starlink 9/BlackSky Global
Launch time: 0826 GMT (4:26 a.m. EDT)
Launch site: LC-39A, Kennedy Space Center, Florida