Which SHLV Will Fly 1st?

[Hauerg]

Votes for SLS. Starship is years away.

Voted for Starship. SLS is years away.

[Hog]

Technically speaking hopper already flew but:

For this poll, success means either to orbit or deep space.

Orion flew in 2014.

I voted for SLS. We are at the end of the 2nd month of 2020, 1/6th of the year is now history and SLS has slipped to Spring'ish 2021.  I'm sure something will come up, but Artemis-1 launching in 2021 seems logical.  Getting test vehicles "on orbit" is one thing, getting humans beyond LEO is another.  Exciting times for sure!

[butters]

If SpaceX completes the 20km test successfully with Starship SN1 or SN2 before the end of June, then I think Starship/SuperHeavy will launch first. Otherwise SLS will edge it out by less than 4 months. Until the 20km test is complete it's hard to judge how flight-ready the current production process might be.

[TomH]

What does "fly" mean?

Reach orbit?

Reach orbit AND land the capsule vs both stages?

The parameters are given in the opening post. It is not possible to include all that information in a question title. With respect, I would recommend reading the opening post in a poll thread prior to replying.

[TomH]

Orion flew in 2014.

With respect, that just is not germane to the question re. these SHLVs.

[Cheapchips]

What a conundrum!  I feel like I should vote SLS as it's so close to being done. But then they can't even make their April 2021 date.   SpaceX looks like they'll have a least one or two orbital SS prototypes available this year if they don't increase their production rate (and they will).  I just can't bet against them having SH ready before summer next year.

Their 'reach orbit' plan seems hard to break given the way production is gearing up.

[whitelancer64]

It's going to be fairly close. My personal hope is that Starship, Vulcan, New Glenn, and SLS all launch to orbit within six months of each other.

[envy887]

It's going to be fairly close. My personal hope is that Starship, Vulcan, New Glenn, and SLS all launch to orbit within six months of each other.

The middle of 2021 is shaping up to be outstanding in terms of heavy rocket launches. All of those will be launching or at least highly visible for pad ops, plus a FH will launch AFSPC-52.

[Negan]

I chose Starship/Super Heavy stack. I expect the first orbital flight to be successful like Falcon Heavy was.

[Jimmy Murdok]

For an apples to apples, I would say that if Orion do loops around the moon and reenters Earth successfully, Starship should at least land after orbit. ArtemisI should human rate rocket and capsule in missions around the moon and this is a big thing.

Taking into account the development time, this poll is also good, so I voted Starship

I´m pretty sure that SpaceX is pretty motivated to send a Starship to Orbit and return it safe to Earth before SLS launch, NASA has not yet bought a Falcon Heavy, only sent a sad cubesat in a defense test launch.

SpaceX is building traction to claim a significant portion of Artemis by obvious proven capabilities. They have the best engineers and have chosen an aggressive but at the same time conservative and economic architecture. They are moving fast and they are hungry.

Boeing and NASA better move fast.

[indaco1]

...NASA has not yet bought a Falcon Heavy..

Psyche mission promptly announced.

Could you ask for something else? Maybe it works. 

[Proponent]

Despite not liking SLS at all, I have a hunch is that it will fly before the full SS/SH, even after the additional SLS delay announced on Friday.  SS has yet to fly and SH is further away.  Apply the usual SpaceX time-dilation factor, and I come to the conclusion that NASA's head start on SLS, nearly a decade, makes it the likely winner of this particular horse race, despite it's own time-dilation field.

Regarding the secondary question as to the effect on SLS of SS/SH flying first, I think it would be significantly negative for SLS in the long term but not in the short term.  It will seem significant to space cadets, with some SLS supporters saying, well, I always said we should drop SLS if a cheaper commercial alternative became available, and now it's available.  I doubt the larger public would really understand the significance.  I would expect SLS's supporters in Congress and elsewhere in government (lookin' at you, Scott Pace) to invent various reasons that it remains essential, which I think would be perfectly adequate to carry it for a few more years, at least until Sen. Shelby departs.

[RedLineTrain]

I voted SS/SH because of the two choices, it is the one with the incentives behind it.  SpaceX needs SS/SH to deliver Starlink satellites as soon as possible.  Don't think it matters to SLS when it launches, now that it is after the election.

[ncb1397]

Despite not liking SLS at all, I have a hunch is that it will fly before the full SS/SH, even after the additional SLS delay announced on Friday.

I'm not sure there was an actual delay. Mid 2021 doesn't mean July 1st 2021. There are days on either end of it that could be considered "mid 2021". There are 62 days between April 30th 2021 and July 1st 2021. So, is "mid 2021" a 4 month range in the middle of next year?

You can see the associate administrator's somewhat informal style presentation here (he at one point jokes about all female spacewalks being unmanned spacewalks):


Jeff Foust just got this one wrong. He converted mid to late 2021 to second half of 2021. Those aren't accurate conversions.

[spacenut]

Mid-2021 also means July 1st to September 30th.  I predict more delays for SLS and it will be mid to late 2021 (July 1st to December 31st).  Hopefully Starship will fly before then as they are supposed to fly their paying customer(s) around the moon in 2022. 

[meberbs]

Despite not liking SLS at all, I have a hunch is that it will fly before the full SS/SH, even after the additional SLS delay announced on Friday.

These are not new delays, just a more clear statement of what was already known. To quote the article on this site that first mentions the delay to April "Most of those notes continue to indicate a Summer 2021 “realistic” launch timeline"

To quote what I said upthread more than a week ago:

On the other hand, SLS is at best April 2021, realistically in the summer, and delays to late 2021 would not be that surprising.

The most recent statement is nothing new, just more realistic than the April 2021 date. Unlike every other SLS announced timeframe to date, there is actually a reasonable chance that SLS might not slip out of this stated period of mid to late 2021.

[Proponent]

Despite not liking SLS at all, I have a hunch is that it will fly before the full SS/SH, even after the additional SLS delay announced on Friday.

I'm not sure there was an actual delay. Mid 2021 doesn't mean July 1st 2021. There are days on either end of it that could be considered "mid 2021". There are 62 days between April 30th 2021 and July 1st 2021. So, is "mid 2021" a 4 month range in the middle of next year?

You can see the associate administrator's somewhat informal style presentation here (he at one point jokes about all female spacewalks being unmanned spacewalks):


Jeff Foust just got this one wrong. He converted mid to late 2021 to second half of 2021. Those aren't accurate conversions.

Thanks for pointing out the video.  Listening from 27:29, I hear, after dropping a few ums and repeated words, "... and integrating for <glitch> hopefully in the mid-'21 time-frame, mid-to-late '21 time frame, for Artemis I."  Assuming the glitch is "launch," and it does sound like it ends in "ch," it matches up well with the quote provided by Marcia Smith at SpacePolicyOnline, which is what I was going on.

To me it sounds like "mid-to-late '21" is a correction of "mid-'21,"  That the entire statement is preceded by "hopefully" makes me think "late '21" might begin to be a reasonable interpretation.

[Hog]

Orion flew in 2014.

With respect, that just is not germane to the question re. these SHLVs.

In that case, neither is "Hopper".

[Nomadd]

It's going to be fairly close. My personal hope is that Starship, Vulcan, New Glenn, and SLS all launch to orbit within six months of each other.

As long as that six months isn't in 2030.

[envy887]

Orion flew in 2014.

With respect, that just is not germane to the question re. these SHLVs.

In that case, neither is "Hopper".

Hopper is a SHLV testbed. Orion is a crewed spacecraft. This thread is about SHLVs, not crewed spacecraft.

The only possible relevance of EFT-1 is that Orion readiness could in theory pace the first flight of SLS, but that doesn't appear to be the case. Orion is well ahead on readiness, and core stage testing and final integration are pacing SLS.