Total Members Voted: 194
Voting closed: 04/23/2020 02:38 am
Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy...
Starship development is occurring very differently than FH development. Maybe go check the Boca Chica threads. If you need a reminder, FH development co-existed with F9 improvements and reusability development.
These results are not going to age well.Even if you assume that the SS/SH full stack takes only as long to develop as Falcon Heavy (which I find to be a very optimistic assumption considering FH was a much simpler project), there's zero chance it would launch before SLS.
Quote Compare that to NASA and its Space Launch System, the big rocket that the space agency has been developing for a decadeI don't see much of a difference here. We first started hearing about raptor development in 2013 regarding testing at SSC, 7 years ago. We are going into our fifth annual update somewhere in the ~September time frame.
Compare that to NASA and its Space Launch System, the big rocket that the space agency has been developing for a decade
Ok, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.
Quote from: su27k on 03/07/2020 04:08 amOk, so you think optimistically speaking SS/SH full stack will take at least 7 years to develop, so the first launch is what, 2025? Just want to be sure so that we can see which result is actually not going to age well.A fully-functional cargo Starship that can perform all aspects of the architecture that can successfully land the booster, successfully survive re-entry, and successfully land the Starship itself? 2025 absolutely sounds reasonable for that.I'm certain they can shoot off a non-functional "Starship I-X" before that if they want, but that would be little more than a PR stunt. Certainly not an operational vehicle.
You didn't read the rules in the first post? "landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll)."
I don't see how anyone can reasonable believe Starship will be ready in the next 12-18 months, let alone integrated with its booster for a test flight.The exciting thing is, we get to root for both and are better off no matter what the outcome is
Quote from: su27k on 03/09/2020 05:51 amYou didn't read the rules in the first post? "landing is not a requirement for SS or SH (at least for this poll)."Landing or not landing does not change my answer to the question posed by this poll. I believe SLS will still fly before a full stack.
So, given the poll's rules, do you still think there is zero chance SS/SH would launch before SLS
a full stack SS/SH launch is NET 2025
and everyone who picked Starship in poll is "unreasonable" as Khadgars puts it?
Quote from: su27k on 03/10/2020 02:03 amSo, given the poll's rules, do you still think there is zero chance SS/SH would launch before SLSNo chance is zero, but I do find it so ridiculously unlikely that I'm willing to bet on it, yes.Quote from: su27k on 03/10/2020 02:03 ama full stack SS/SH launch is NET 2025I'm not married to that particular date, but it's certainly past 2021.Quote from: su27k on 03/10/2020 02:03 amand everyone who picked Starship in poll is "unreasonable" as Khadgars puts it?That's a value-judgement, and not one I share.
I'd offer to bet you on the Starship orbital launch date (small change this year, quite a lot for by the end of 2021) but I know Lar was in the middle of working out a bet with you and I see no need for a duplicate bet. If those bet details don't end up including terms on Starship first orbital launch or a similar equivalent, then I would bet.
You can have my slot if you want it... I won't be mad. I pointed Jadebenn to the bet thread to let them get some ideas, then got busy so haven't pinged about it.(and no I don't want to bet about who finalizes a bet first)