Total Members Voted: 445
Had to go with land in center. My choice of "Land in center, re-launch two weeks later on inflight Dragon V2 abort test" wasn't listed...
I went with 3, which is a down grade from the last poll.If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt.
If you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt. Normal statistics would say it's still 50/50.
Quote from: john smith 19 on 01/17/2015 09:23 amIf you play by the rules of Baysian statistics then the odds worsen for a failed attempt. Normal statistics would say it's still 50/50. Ahh... no: Bayes reasoning does not say that. If you are looking at THE SAME probability distribution and you get more information - like a data point on it for failure. then yes, your estimates going forward of what that distribution looks like will change, maybe with a greater failure possibility, maybe not, depending on the prior model. In this case you are looking at a new probability distribution which we know is different - more fluid, different trajectory, higher starting point, etc., so your estimate will have to add all that in to get your new estimated outcome model. That will be your new "prior". It may very well have a lower possibility of success, but it won't just be because of the previous failure, since a lot more stuff is changing, and you know it is, in the sense that you should be incorporating it into your prior probability model for the new launch.Pedantic mode off. I do this because I see it this for all kinds of predictive statistics and these ideas can really lead to funny decision making.
Didn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason?
Also must consider potential failure modes... not the least of which during last attempt was returning to the vicinity of the ASDS in a rather large ocean. Sticking the landing was relatively minor in comparison.
Quote from: ericlopaty on 01/19/2015 02:13 pmDidn't Elon himself say that it should blow up for a different reason? No. He said that he hoped that if it blew up, it would at least be for a different reason. P.S.- Welcome to the Forum!
Next rocket landing on drone ship in 2 to 3 weeks w way more hydraulic fluid. At least it shd explode for a diff reason.