POLL: First to deploy a payload into orbit, New Glenn or Starship?

[Jim]

Turns out all you need is an agency that actually follows their legal mandate which is "Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector".

FAA tasks

. Our major roles include:

Regulating civil aviation to promote safety
Encouraging and developing civil aeronautics, including new aviation technology
Developing and operating a system of air traffic control and navigation for both civil and military aircraft
Researching and developing the National Airspace System and civil aeronautics
Developing and carrying out programs to control aircraft noise and other environmental effects of civil aviation
Regulating U.S. commercial space transportation

Specifically
Regulate the U.S. commercial space transportation industry, to ensure compliance with international obligations of the United States, and to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security and foreign policy interests of the United States;
Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector;
Recommend appropriate changes in Federal statutes, treaties, regulations, policies, plans, and procedures; and
Facilitate the strengthening and expansion of the U.S. space transportation infrastructure.

"Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector" kind of conflicts with the above.

[Jim]

I don't think FAA will be a hurdle any longer, like it or not Elon has seen to that.

Based on what?

[AmigaClone]

I can see New Glenn being the first to deploy a payload into orbit. On the other hand, I suspect within one year after the second of the two launch vehicles deploys its first payload, Starship will have launched a lot more mass to orbit.

[sstli2]

I can see New Glenn being the first to deploy a payload into orbit. On the other hand, I suspect within one year after the second of the two launch vehicles deploys its first payload, Starship will have launched a lot more mass to orbit.

This is obvious. The timeline uncertainty for Starship right now is getting from explosions to orbit. If you then make Starship having reached orbit a premise, of course it will launch a lot more mass.

[AmigaClone]

I can see New Glenn being the first to deploy a payload into orbit. On the other hand, I suspect within one year after the second of the two launch vehicles deploys its first payload, Starship will have launched a lot more mass to orbit.

This is obvious. The timeline uncertainty for Starship right now is getting from explosions to orbit. If you then make Starship having reached orbit a premise, of course it will launch a lot more mass.

In the first year I suspect a significant portion of the Starship missions would involve tests preparing for SpaceX's obligations towards Arthemis III. I believe the fueling tests would not qualify as 'payload deployed' for this poll. A HLS prototype sent to the moon, or a Starship sent to a Mars Fly-by mission might qualify as 'payload' for the purposes of this poll, or that could be restricted to only the actual payload inside those Starships.

In essence, the comparison of 'mass deployed' between Starship and New Glenn would compare Starship-Starlink missions to all New Glenn missions. Even with a multi-month head start, and SpaceX using only a portion of their missions to actually deploy any payload, I suspect Starship will quickly surpass New Glenn.

[thespacecow]

Turns out all you need is an agency that actually follows their legal mandate which is "Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector".

FAA tasks

. Our major roles include:

Regulating civil aviation to promote safety
Encouraging and developing civil aeronautics, including new aviation technology
Developing and operating a system of air traffic control and navigation for both civil and military aircraft
Researching and developing the National Airspace System and civil aeronautics
Developing and carrying out programs to control aircraft noise and other environmental effects of civil aviation
Regulating U.S. commercial space transportation

Specifically
Regulate the U.S. commercial space transportation industry, to ensure compliance with international obligations of the United States, and to protect the public health and safety, safety of property, and national security and foreign policy interests of the United States;
Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector;
Recommend appropriate changes in Federal statutes, treaties, regulations, policies, plans, and procedures; and
Facilitate the strengthening and expansion of the U.S. space transportation infrastructure.

"Encourage, facilitate, and promote commercial space launches and reentries by the private sector" kind of conflicts with the above.

Did you even read what you copy/pasted?

I don't think FAA will be a hurdle any longer, like it or not Elon has seen to that.

Based on what?

Like I said in that comment, based on the smooth interaction between SpaceX and FAA in the past 6 months, even the FAA thread on the Starship section is quiet now, unlike say 2024.

[SpaceLizard]

I don't think FAA will be a hurdle any longer, like it or not Elon has seen to that.

Based on what?

Like I said in that comment, based on the smooth interaction between SpaceX and FAA in the past 6 months, even the FAA thread on the Starship section is quiet now, unlike say 2024.

I'm still not entirely convinced that the 'delays' weren't either political theater on Musk's part or caused by left-over appointments of the pre-2024 administration, either through incompetence(a known feature the 2017-2020/2025-? administration's appointments) or deliberately in order to facilitate the aforementioned political theater.

[sstli2]

In the first year I suspect a significant portion of the Starship missions would involve tests preparing for SpaceX's obligations towards Arthemis III.

I think Starlink has been and continues to be the number one priority and will occupy many of the initial orbital flights.

[AmigaClone]

In the first year I suspect a significant portion of the Starship missions would involve tests preparing for SpaceX's obligations towards Arthemis III.

I think Starlink has been and continues to be the number one priority and will occupy many of the initial orbital flights.

I see the initial orbital flights being split between Starlink and flights devoted to fulfilling SpaceX's obligation towards Arthemis III. This last group will include the fuel transfer tests plus at least one uncrewed HLS lunar landing.

[DanClemmensen]

In the first year I suspect a significant portion of the Starship missions would involve tests preparing for SpaceX's obligations towards Arthemis III.

I think Starlink has been and continues to be the number one priority and will occupy many of the initial orbital flights.

it's not either/or. Most folks think Tankers will re-enter to be caught on chopsticks. If so, then the HLS mission requires this capability. but Starlink missions are also re-entry tests, testing TPS, re-entry profiles, and ultimately Ship catch. Before even that, SpaceX must demonstrate reliable engine relight after spending 30 minutes in zero g before they will proceed to a full orbital flight. Thus, each of the first several flights do both.

[Tywin]

NG-2 too...

https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1945880252757987446

[Yggdrasill]

After the successful Starship flight 10 yesterday, with successful demo deorbit burn and payload deployment into a suborbital trajectory, things don't seem as bleak for SpaceX.

The big question now is if they will do another pure test flight, or whether they will go for orbit and Starlink deployment on the next flight. If so, that could in theory happen as early as September, with New Glenn flight 2 currently NET September 29th.

As I understand it, the next Starship flight has been indicated to be a test flight, but on the back of this success, they could decide to go for orbit with Starlink satellites.

And even if the next flight is a test flight, flight 12 could happen in October or November, and with further delays for New Glenn as fairly likely, it's not clear who will get there first.

[SimonFD]

...

The big question now is if they will do another pure test flight, or whether they will go for orbit and Starlink deployment on the next flight. If so, that could in theory happen as early as September, with New Glenn flight 2 currently NET September 29th.

As I understand it, the next Starship flight has been indicated to be a test flight, but on the back of this success, they could decide to go for orbit with Starlink satellites.

And even if the next flight is a test flight, flight 12 could happen in October or November, and with further delays for New Glenn as fairly likely, it's not clear who will get there first.

On the update chat, before the weather scrub, it was stated that the first 'operational' flight would be by the end of the year. By 'operational' I would expect that to mean 'deliver payload to orbit' i.e. Starlink v3.

I suspect NG will get there first, however.

[Yggdrasill]

"By the end of the year" could be tomorrow, so it doesn't really say a lot.

[DanClemmensen]

After the successful Starship flight 10 yesterday, with successful demo deorbit burn and payload deployment into a suborbital trajectory, things don't seem as bleak for SpaceX.

The big question now is if they will do another pure test flight, or whether they will go for orbit and Starlink deployment on the next flight. If so, that could in theory happen as early as September, with New Glenn flight 2 currently NET September 29th.

As I understand it, the next Starship flight has been indicated to be a test flight, but on the back of this success, they could decide to go for orbit with Starlink satellites.

And even if the next flight is a test flight, flight 12 could happen in October or November, and with further delays for New Glenn as fairly likely, it's not clear who will get there first.

IFT-11 is the last Starship v2. IFT-12 will perforce be v3. It must be tested at Massey's, which is not yet finished its rebuild, and it must launch from Pad 2, which is not finished. A flight in October or even November seems unlikely. They might be able to launch a v3 Ship atop a v2 booster from Pad 1, but that's a bit of a kludge.

[JulesVerneATV]

Flight 13 Block-3 in 2026 from Texas Starbase OLP2
https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/08/spacex-got-good-heat-shield-data-for-starship-so-what-comes-next/

SpaceX completes 11th test flight of its Starship rocket
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/space/spacex-completes-starship-rocket-test-flight-rcna237463

[Yggdrasill]

It's looking like Starship first orbital payload deployment will be Q1 or Q2 2026, and New Glenn first orbital payload deployment is currently scheduled for NET November 9th 2025. So unless the second flight of New Glenn goes horribly wrong or something else causes a massive delay, Blue should reach the milestone first.

Regardless of what happens next, this has taken a lot more time than I expected when I started this thread! 10 months fly by.