Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/01/2025 10:51 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 01/17/2025 07:07 pmIf ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.On the basis of all of those criteria that "assured access to space" overrode. I think SpaceX would and should do this for the principle of the matter.
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 01/17/2025 07:07 pmIf ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.
If ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 01/17/2025 07:07 pmIf ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue....Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.
However, we are where we are, and I think USSF needs to keep ULA on life support until SpaceX or another party can support vertically-integrated payloads from both Vandenberg and CCSFS or until they can remove the requirement for vertical integration.
Quote from: RedLineTrain on 02/02/2025 03:34 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 02/01/2025 10:51 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 01/17/2025 07:07 pmIf ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.On the basis of all of those criteria that "assured access to space" overrode. I think SpaceX would and should do this for the principle of the matter.I agree with you in principle: The current situation is not "fair". However, we are where we are, and I think USSF needs to keep ULA on life support until SpaceX or another party can support vertically-integrated payloads from both Vandenberg and CCSFS or until they can remove the requirement for vertical integration.I don't like it either, but I don't have a solution.
Quote from: DanClemmensen on 02/02/2025 03:55 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 02/02/2025 03:34 pmQuote from: DanClemmensen on 02/01/2025 10:51 pmQuote from: RedLineTrain on 01/17/2025 07:07 pmIf ULA wins 60 and SpaceX wins 40, SpaceX will sue.On what basis? USSF has an explicit mandate to maintain assured access to space, and their assertion that this requires two viable providers is defensible. Also, it's probably not worth SpaceX' time to bother to sue. Also, building a VIF for the FH would be a distraction, so they might quietly let USSF know that they will not sue as long as USSF grants all the missions that require vertical integration to Vulcan, at least until Starship is certified.On the basis of all of those criteria that "assured access to space" overrode. I think SpaceX would and should do this for the principle of the matter.I agree with you in principle: The current situation is not "fair". However, we are where we are, and I think USSF needs to keep ULA on life support until SpaceX or another party can support vertically-integrated payloads from both Vandenberg and CCSFS or until they can remove the requirement for vertical integration.I don't like it either, but I don't have a solution.You are presenting a solution in search of a problem. Life support's not 60, it's 40 or less. Vulcan has plenty of business.
Fair enough. I do not have access to ULA's books or their negotiations with USSF, so I do not know if they need the traditional 60% to stay alive. I do think that they would be crushed if it were a completely unbiased competition. I think USSF needs them to stay in the game at least until SpaceX can support vertical integration on Starship. After that, they have "assured access to space" even if SpaceX wins all the bids.
Summary: Additional space launch providers are being added in FY25 to the Phase 3 Lane 1 contract, joining the three providers awarded contracts in FY24, expanding the portfolio to strengthen our access to space. EL SEGUNDO, Calif. – The U.S. Space Force (USSF’s) Space Systems Command (SSC) awarded Firm Fixed-Price (FFP), Indefinite-Delivery Indefinite-Quantity (IDIQ) National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 1 contracts to Rocket Lab USA, Inc. and Stoke Space, joining Blue Origin, SpaceX and ULA who were on-ramped to Lane 1 last year. “With today’s award, the Space Force expanded our portfolio of launch systems able to deliver critical space capability. These new partners bring innovative approaches and increased competition to our mission area,” explained Brig. Gen. Kristin Panzenhagen, USSF program executive officer for Assured Access to Space. “Our Lane 1 goal is to bring in new partners to increase capacity, resiliency, and speed.”Rocket Lab and Stoke Space will each receive a $5 million FFP Task Order to conduct an initial capabilities assessment and develop their approach to tailored mission assurance. Tailored mission assurance is a tiered approach to the government’s breadth and depth of the launch vehicle baseline understanding and the associated risks to the mission.“We are excited to bring on new launch providers to the NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 contract and I’m extremely proud of the team’s hard work on-ramping Rocket Lab and Stoke Space as soon as they were ready,” said Lt. Col. Douglas Downs, SSC’s materiel leader for Space Launch Procurement. “We climbed a tall mountain to execute this source selection quickly, and we’re not done yet. We look forward to on-ramping more emerging companies over the next few years as their systems become ready.”The next opportunity for providers to on-ramp their emerging systems to the Lane 1 IDIQ contract will occur in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.“Once Rocket Lab and Stoke Space complete their first successful launch, they will be eligible to compete for launch service task orders on Lane 1,” Downs added. “We will release Requests for Proposals (RFPs) for additional Lane 1 launch services later this spring, and we also have several more missions we will compete in FY26.”Assured Access to Space executes the U.S. Space Force’s Core Competency of Space Mobility and Logistics. It secures reliable and responsive launch services to deploy the space-based capabilities needed by our Nation's warfighters, intelligence professionals, decision makers, allies, and partners. Additionally, it operates and sustains resilient and ready launch and test infrastructure to project on-orbit warfighting capability through all phases of conflict and to expand US economic, technological, and scientific leadership. Further, Assured Access to Space delivers servicing, mobility, and logistics capabilities that operate in, from, and to the space domain.SSC is the U.S. Space Force’s field command responsible for acquiring and delivering resilient warfighting capabilities to protect our nation’s strategic advantage in and from space. SSC manages a $15.6 billion space acquisition budget for the DoD and works in partnership with joint forces, industry, government agencies, and academic and allied organizations to accelerate innovation and outpace emerging threats. Our actions today are making the world a better space for tomorrow.
The Space Force's flagship National Security Space Launch procurement program, which is poised to assign roughly 50 missions through 2029 in incremental task orders, is expected to announce its selection decision on Friday, with SpaceX and ULA among the winners, the sources said.
SpaceX has been awarded the majority of @SpaceForceDoD Phase 3 Lane 2 missions!These missions will include a mix of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets and will take place over a five-year period
Winning 60% of the missions may sound generous, but the reality is that all SpaceX competitors combined cannot currently deliver the other 40%!I hope they succeed, but they aren’t there yet.
United Launch Alliance Wins Competitive Space Force Contract Award for Continued Critical National Security Space LaunchesApril 4, 2025 Award represents 40 percent of the country’s critical satellite launches delivered to the most challenging and exotic orbitsCentennial, Colo., April 4, 2025 – The U.S. Space Force announced today that United Launch Alliance (ULA) was awarded a firm, fixed-price, indefinite-delivery requirements (IDR) contact to launch 40 percent of the missions to the country’s most challenging and exotic orbits on its newest launch procurement contract. This contract resulted from a competitive award under the Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 procurement.“We are proud that we have launched 100 national security space missions and honored to continue serving the nation with our new Vulcan rocket,” said Tory Bruno, ULA’s president and CEO. “We are very pleased to be awarded 40 percent of the Phase 3 procurement. Vulcan is the right choice for critical national security space missions and is the only rocket today designed to meet all the requirements of our nation’s space launch needs.”The competitive process ensures the U.S. has continued assured access to space and supports a robust domestic national security industrial base. The award represents missions ordered in fiscal years 2025 through 2029 with launches occurring through 2034. The missions will launch from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station in Florida, and from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.“This award constitutes the most complex missions required for national security space,” said Bruno. “Vulcan continues to use the world’s highest energy upper stage; the Centaur V. Centaur V’s unmatched flexibility and extreme endurance enables the most complex orbital insertions continuing to advance our nation’s capabilities in space.”
NEWS | APR 4, 2025New Glenn Awarded Critical National Security Space Launch ContractBlue Origin won a contract today to serve as a National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 3 Lane 2 heavy-lift provider for the nation’s most critical missions. We’re proud to support the Department of Defense and the National Reconnaissance Office in this effort. The award marks an important step to expand the choice of launch providers and sustained competition for assured access to space. For more information about today’s award, go here. “It's an honor and huge responsibility to team with the U.S. Government to launch our nation’s most important assets,” said Jarrett Jones, SVP, New Glenn. “Through this partnership, we’re looking forward to delivering on a number of critical national security priorities.” This contract tasks New Glenn with missions to stressing orbits requiring higher performance launch systems and full mission assurance as a Space Systems Command (SSC)-certified launch vehicle. The payloads delivered will support our nation’s strategic advantage in space. This is the third national security launch-related contract we've been awarded in the past year. In June 2024, Blue Origin won a contract to compete for NSSL Phase 3 Lane 1 missions. We also won a contract in July 2024 to compete for missions in the Orbital Services Program (OSP)-4, which allows New Glenn to compete for task orders intended to put capabilities on orbit within two years. January’s NG-1 launch was our first NSSL certification flight, and we expect to fly NG-2 in late spring.
The Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.
In this article on Ars technica Stephen Clark mentions that there was a bid from a fourth company:https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/with-new-contracts-spacex-will-become-the-us-militarys-top-launch-provider/QuoteThe Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.Does anyone know which company could that be? My only guess is Boeing with SLS. I don't recall any other US company having or developing a launcher in a class required for the full range of Lane 2 missions.
Quote from: scientist on 04/06/2025 03:21 pmIn this article on Ars technica Stephen Clark mentions that there was a bid from a fourth company:https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/04/with-new-contracts-spacex-will-become-the-us-militarys-top-launch-provider/QuoteThe Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.Does anyone know which company could that be? My only guess is Boeing with SLS. I don't recall any other US company having or developing a launcher in a class required for the full range of Lane 2 missions.I doubt. Boeing knows they are uncompetitive here. And I'm pretty sure they don't expect to be able to deliver as many cores as would be required for even the third option. It's either RocketLab or Relativity. Relativity would make sense because Neutron cannot do all the orbits. I'm not sure Neutron would ever make it into Lane 2 as it is currently defined. But obviously, a requirement here is you have a credible plan to qualify by a certain date, and if they didn't think Relativity was credible for Lane 1, they certainly wouldn't for Lane 2.
QuoteThe Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.Does anyone know which company could that be? My only guess is Boeing with SLS. I don't recall any other US company having or developing a launcher in a class required for the full range of Lane 2 missions.
Quote from: scientist on 04/06/2025 03:21 pmQuoteThe Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.Northrop Grumman might have proposed reviving OmegA.
QuoteThe Pentagon confirmed an unnamed fourth company also submitted a proposal, but wasn't selected for Phase 3.
With in orbit refuelling Neutron might be capable of supporting all missions. They would probably only bid for single launch missions.
