NGA, NSA space asset info re: leak of Israeli retaliation plans against Iran?

[Targeteer]

The latest US Intelligence leak is probably of interest to this thread...

[tyrred]

The latest US Intelligence leak is probably of interest to this thread...

Care to elaborate?

[Targeteer]

Look for the documents, at your own risk...

[zubenelgenubi]

Moderator:
Let's all stay on-topic: Updates and discussion regarding the possible use of National Geospatial Agency (NGA) and National Security Agency (NSA) satellites as revealed by this intelligence leak, AND the effects that has on space policy.


Member:
The source story appears on Axios on October 19--I'm not a subscriber. https://www.axios.com/2024/10/19/israel-iran-attack-telegram-leaked-intelligence

CNN covers Axios' story here:
Leaked documents show US intelligence on Israel’s plans to attack Iran, sources say

The US is investigating a leak of highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to three people familiar with the matter. One of the people familiar confirmed the documents’ authenticity.
<snip>
The documents, dated October 15 and 16, began circulating online Friday after being posted on Telegram by an account called “Middle East Spectator.”

They are marked top secret and have markings indicating they are meant to be seen only by the US and its “Five Eyes” allies — Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.
<snip>
They describe preparations Israel appears to be making for a strike against Iran. One of the documents, which says it was compiled by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says the plans involve Israel moving munitions around.
<snip>
Another document says it is sourced to the National Security Agency and outlines Israeli air force exercises involving air-to-surface missiles, also believed to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. CNN is not quoting directly from or showing the documents.
<snip>
One of the documents also suggests something that Israel has always declined to confirm publicly: that the country has nuclear weapons. The document says the US has not seen any indications that Israel plans to use a nuclear weapon against Iran.

So, NGA and NSA intelligence,  probably sourcing in part from space assets, in leaked documents.  No mention of leaked imagery or signal intercepts.


Moderator:
I will splinter this story to a thread in Space Policy.

Done ✅️

Edited

[Blackstar]

The latest US Intelligence leak is probably of interest to this thread...

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/19/us/politics/us-intelligence-israel-iran.html

In short: what appear to be a couple of highly-classified single-page documents were leaked to somebody on Telegram. They describe the status of Israeli weapons systems that appear to be in preparation for a strike on Iran. The information is based upon imagery and signals intelligence. Imagery satellites imaged Israeli aircraft being loaded with Golden Horizon and Rocks air-launched ballistic missiles. Signals intelligence intercepts indicated that the Israelis have practiced a large-scale air assault using attack aircraft and three 707 refueling planes, an exercise similar to a previous long-range air strike carried out by the IAF. (Sidenote: Israel only has about seven of these aerial tankers.)

It appears that somebody with access to the intelligence possibly took photos of the two documents and leaked them to a Telegram channel, reminiscent of the Texeira Discord server leaks of a couple of years ago. No actual imagery or raw intelligence was leaked, just the reporting documents. Surprising nobody, the US gathers intelligence on its Israeli ally, and Israel certainly gathers intelligence on the United States.


Update: The Telegram channel that made the documents public claims that the documents were not sent to them. Instead, they were originally shared in a Telegram group that has about 7000 members. They were then shared outside of that group and that's how the other channel obtained them. This sounds similar to the Discord leaks of a few years ago.

[Stan-1967]

This event is reminiscent of General Miley's backdoor channeling of info/intel to the CCP/PLA during the Trump administration.  This is concerning to the alignment of policy directives between the executive branch and US security agencies.  This is a murky underworld, & if the leaker is caught & named, maybe we will get insight into motives.  In some aspects, this leak looks like parochial interagency policy schisms trying to preempt state actions.  This creates ambiguity in US positions, depending on what you choose to believe about motives.

[Blackstar]

This event is reminiscent of General Miley's backdoor channeling of info/intel to the CCP/PLA during the

Huh. You know, when the Discord leaks came out I saw people alleging that it was some high-minded attempt to influence policy, and then it turned out to be some young airman with access to a lot of secrets trying to impress a bunch of teenage boys he played video games with.

Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by stupidity.

[Targeteer]

The documents are posted here, not behind a paywall, yet.   https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/israel-preps-for-strike-on-iran-top

[Star One]

From BBC News website.

White House spokesperson John Kirby says the President Biden is "deeply concerned" about the leak of a pair of highly classified intelligence documents that describe preparations by Israel for a retaliatory strike on Iran.
It follows news that the US were investigating the leak, which reportedly saw documents published online last week.
Kirby adds there is no suggestion any further documents have been compromised and also says US officials have been communicating with Israel about the leak.

Biden 'deeply concerned' about apparent leak of Israel plan to attack Iran https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93yre0gll9o

From the article below it states that Talent Keyhole is used to refer to both SIGINT and IMINT. I thought it only referred to the latter and not the former.

What leaked US assessment of Israeli plans to strike Iran shows https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz6w6p8x7p8o

[Targeteer]

Actual analysis of one of the leaked documents which is displayed in the story.   https://www.twz.com/air/the-existence-of-israels-secret-stealth-drone-should-come-as-no-surprise

[Jim]

NGA and NSA do not own or operate any satellites.

[launchwatcher]

A suspect has been charged and arrested:

The Justice Department has charged a man for allegedly leaking highly classified US intelligence about Israel’s plans for retaliation against Iran, according to court documents and a person familiar with the case.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/politics/israel-iran-attack-plan-leak/index.html