Launch statistics

[Satori]

Some of us pointed out that the CZ-11 Chinese launch on December 21, 2018, was the 5,800th orbital launch attempt.

This is a good discussion topic and I'm copying the posts related to that theme.

[Satori]

And, by the way, it was 5800th orbital launch as per my counting - someone can check.

Yes!!!!

[Satori]

And, by the way, it was 5800th orbital launch as per my counting - someone can check.

Yes!!!!

Is this a number of launches that have made it to orbit?  I don't have any confidence in a hard number for the number of orbital launch attempts since the dawn of the space age.  There are disagreements about how many attempts Iran has made, for example, and even Korea.   

 - Ed Kyle

[Satori]

And, by the way, it was 5800th orbital launch as per my counting - someone can check.

Yes!!!!

Is this a number of launches that have made it to orbit?  I don't have any confidence in a hard number for the number of orbital launch attempts since the dawn of the space age.  There are disagreements about how many attempts Iran has made, for example, and even Korea.   

 - Ed Kyle

For me is the number of orbital attempts.

[Satori]

And, by the way, it was 5800th orbital launch as per my counting - someone can check.

Yes!!!!

Is this a number of launches that have made it to orbit?  I don't have any confidence in a hard number for the number of orbital launch attempts since the dawn of the space age.  There are disagreements about how many attempts Iran has made, for example, and even Korea.   

 - Ed Kyle

For me is the number of orbital attempts.

FWIW my count is 5,795 for this one, but I see this as a kind of estimate given the uncertainties.

 - Ed Kyle

[Satori]

FWIW my count is 5,795 for this one, but I see this as a kind of estimate given the uncertainties

My data:
Baikonur - 1487
Kapustin Yar - 101
Plesetsk - 1624
Svobodniy - 5
Russian submarine - 3
Dombarovskiy - 10
Vostochniy - 3
CCAFS - 750
Pilot - 6
VAFB - 678
Wallops - 37
KSC - 167
Pegasus - 43
Kodiak - 3
Omelek - 5
Kauai - 1
Hammaguir - 4
CSG - 288
Uchinoura - 40
Tanegashima - 78
San Marco - 9
Woomera - 6
Jiuquan - 113
Xichang - 124
Taiyuan - 72
Wenchang - 4
SDSC - 68
Palmachim - 12
Alcantara - 2
Tonghae - 2
Sohae - 3
Sea Launch - 36
Semnan - 9
Naro - 3
Onenui - 4

[edkyle99]

Elon Musk recently tweeted about China beating the U.S. in launch numbers this year for the first time. 

Except, it isn't the first time.  It happened in 2014.  There was a tie, I think, in 2010.  Etc. 

It may be the first year that China has performed more launches than any other country during a calendar year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076905111597662208

 - Ed Kyle

[edkyle99]

Elon Musk recently tweeted about China beating the U.S. in launch numbers this year for the first time. 

Except, it isn't the first time.  It happened in 2014.  There was a tie, I think, in 2010.  Etc. 

It may be the first year that China has performed more launches than any other country during a calendar year.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1076905111597662208

 - Ed Kyle

A follow up.  China tied the U.S. in 2010 and beat it in 2011, 2012, and 2015, so Musk was incorrect about the beating U.S. part.  What China did for the first time in 2018 was to top the launch numbers world-wide, beating both the U.S. and Russia.

 - Ed Kyle

[high road]

And looks like China's going to repeat that feat this year. If they repeat it again next year (with SpaceX filling launch gaps with Starlink launches and Rocketlab continuing to pick up the pace), I'm calling it a trend for the foreseeable future.

[Closer to Space]

Here is a graph of all orbital flights in history by country. It's funny to note that there have been more Soyuz/R7 launched than American orbital flights!

[spacebuddy20]

Here is a graph of all orbital flights in history by country. It's funny to note that there have been more Soyuz/R7 launched than American orbital flights!

Thats a nice graph. From which page did you get that one?
Well the Russians started early with the space program, that could explain the high numbers of flights.

[Proponent]

Well the Russians started early with the space program, that could explain the high numbers of flights.

Only by four months (two launches).  I'll be the Soviets really racked up their lead in the 1970's and early 1980's, when they launched huge numbers of short-lived spysats.  The US didn't need to launch so many, because its satellites lasted longer.

[libra]

What is truly unbelievable is THIS

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/1821/1

A lot of people are aware than the Vostok / Soyuz launch vehicle  flew 1800 times or more since 1957.

Fewer realize that plain old Gagarin's Vostok also flew 800 times - kind of. 

By comparison, Agena-derived NRO spysats  - KH-1 to KH-8 plus some other ones - raked aproximatively 250 flights from 1959 to 1984. Out of 365 Agena, total - nearly one per day of the year ! Also 10 per year, average. By comparison only 20 KH-9s were flown, and not much KH-11s and derivatives since 1976 (20+)

[edkyle99]

Did the world just tie a record in the number of successful orbital launches in a calendar year?  I count 126 successes in at least 134 attempts during 2021 up to December 20 (counting the recent Proton flight as a "success" despite a bit of a shortfall).   I count 126 for 1984, when there were 129 launches and three failures, which I think may have been the previous record. 

 - Ed Kyle

[LittleBird]

I was also struck by the fact that this was the 2nd year in a row that the record for annual number of launches from the Cape was broken, a record set in 1966 ...

The liftoff of a SpaceX cargo ship on the way to the International Space Station early Tuesday was the 31st and final orbital launch from Florida’s Space Coast in 2021, setting a new record for the most space missions to depart from the spaceport in a calendar year.

The tally includes 28 launches of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets from Kennedy Space Center and neighboring Cape Canaveral Space Force Station. Three Atlas 5 rockets from United Launch Alliance also took off from Cape Canaveral this year.

The 31 orbital launches exceeds the 30 missions that rocketed into orbit from the Space Coast last year. The record set last year broke the previous mark for the the most orbital launches from the Space Coast in a year, set in 1966 with 29 successful trips into orbit.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/12/21/spacex-cargo-flight-sets-record-for-most-orbital-launches-from-space-coast-in-a-year/

[su27k]

Trying to visualize how many US launches there are without SpaceX, the result is pretty bleak, US will significantly lag behind China in terms of launches if not for SpaceX:

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1558128340132831232

[laszlo]

Trying to visualize how many US launches there are without SpaceX, the result is pretty bleak, US will significantly lag behind China in terms of launches if not for SpaceX:

https://twitter.com/KenKirtland17/status/1558128340132831232

Not sure why this is bleak. All it shows is that the US already has functioning constellations of military, spy, weather and communications satellites as well as a space station, China is building all theirs out and Elon has a crazy idea of filling every square inch of space with starlinks. China is launching more than the US because they have to to accomplish their national goals.

This reminds me of the doomsayers during the Cold War comparing the USSR/USA launch rates but ignoring the fact that US satellites had longer lifetimes.

Another way to look at this is that both countries have precisely the same launch rates - exactly what their national goals require.

[su27k]

Not sure why this is bleak. All it shows is that the US already has functioning constellations of military, spy, weather and communications satellites as well as a space station, China is building all theirs out and Elon has a crazy idea of filling every square inch of space with starlinks. China is launching more than the US because they have to to accomplish their national goals.

This reminds me of the doomsayers during the Cold War comparing the USSR/USA launch rates but ignoring the fact that US satellites had longer lifetimes.

Another way to look at this is that both countries have precisely the same launch rates - exactly what their national goals require.

Similar argument was presented a few years ago, but:
1. Back then it was argued Chinese launch rate is high due to them completing their BeiDou constellation. Yet today they already completed it, but their launch rate is higher than ever.
2. Do we have any evidence that Chinese satellite's lifespan is shorter than the US? I don't think so.
3. As shown by megaconstellations, a somewhat shorter lifespan for satellite can be a feature instead of a bug, because it allows frequent refreshing of satellite hardware. Also longer lifespan means higher cost, those "billion dollar targets" as a US general puts it is not a good idea in the age of ASAT weapons.
4. Even if we accept that China's launch rate is due to them completing many things US already has (it's not), it still means China is catching up to US fast, while US is like a turtle that barely moves, not a good position to be.

So yes, in the end everybody's launch rate is to serve their national goals, the problem is US national goal in space would look pretty pathetic comparing to China, without the help from SpaceX.

[AmigaClone]

I was also struck by the fact that this was the 2nd year in a row that the record for annual number of launches from the Cape was broken, a record set in 1966 ...

The 1966 record was 29 and it remained until there until 2020 when it increased to 30, and in 2021 it again was broken with 31.

2022 makes it the 3rd year in a row that record was broken. The final record is yet to be known, but the 32nd launch occurred in July.

[edkyle99]

I was also struck by the fact that this was the 2nd year in a row that the record for annual number of launches from the Cape was broken, a record set in 1966 ...

The 1966 record was 29 and it remained until there until 2020 when it increased to 30, and in 2021 it again was broken with 31.

2022 makes it the 3rd year in a row that record was broken. The final record is yet to be known, but the 32nd launch occurred in July.

Part of the confusion may be the distinction between Cape Canaveral and Kennedy Space Center.  These are two distinct launch centers.  In 2020 Cape Canaveral hosted 20 launches, KSC 10.  In 2021 the Cape handled 19 liftoffs and KSC 12.  In 1966, all 29 of the launches were from the Cape because KSC was not yet operational.

This year, so far, there have been 23 launches including 2 failures from the Cape and 12 launches from KSC.

 - Ed Kyle