Author Topic: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread  (Read 75621 times)

Offline rdale

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STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« on: 04/22/2011 01:38 pm »
Seems I have to start these threads earlier and earlier every launch ;)

It looks like a cold front will be approaching Florida later next week which could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. We're still a week out so this is only slightly better than a complete guess, but it appears that the timing would put the best chance of storms late Thursday or early Friday, clearing out by Friday afternoon.

Don't hold me to that - I'm just getting sick of people posting 9 day computer generated forecasts and asking for input. Anything you get from AccuWeather, TWC, etc. is all computer generated and completely worthless at those timeframes.

There is a tropical disturbance well southeast of Florida which is being closely watched. It's not even close to hurricane season, so by default its life expectancy is not good (NHC gives it only a 20% chance of doing anything) and the typical patterns should keep it south of the peninsula.

Launch Weather Links: http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070606-012.pdf

Spaceflight Meteorology Group: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC

National Weather Service: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Titusville&state=FL&site=MLB&textField1=28.5888&textField2=-80.8202&e=0

NWS Forecast Discsussion: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB

Launch commit criteria: http://nasa-ksc.org/outgoing/weather_Rules.pdf (L2 has more info and more recent updates)

Offline MarekCyzio

Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #1 on: 04/22/2011 01:55 pm »
Seems I have to start these threads earlier and earlier every launch ;)

That only shows how excited everybody is :)

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #2 on: 04/22/2011 01:59 pm »
I understand excitement, but anyone familiar with Florida weather should know that predicting a possible thunderstorm at 175 hours away is a bit on the useless side ;)

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #3 on: 04/22/2011 04:15 pm »
As I mentioned in the ops thread, Kathy Winters is blogging extensively about the forecast process too.

http://science.dodlive.mil/2011/04/22/countdown-to-endeavour-when-the-weatherwoman-cant-be-wrong/

Offline dsmillman

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #4 on: 04/24/2011 04:49 pm »
The Air Force forecast for Cape Canaveral  seems to indicate a cold front moving through Thursday night or Friday morning.  Then conditions improve for Friday afternoon except the forecast for the winds is:

                           NE 15G25

which is a LCC violation. Saturday is a little better with a smaller crosswind component:

                            E 15G25

 For more details see:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061114-008.PDF


Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #5 on: 04/24/2011 11:16 pm »
I'm not seeing winds that strong behind the cold front, unless it slows down a little more so that the passage is closer to launch time.

Offline dsmillman

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #6 on: 04/25/2011 12:17 pm »
This morning's Air Force forecast for Cape Canaveral has the following for winds for Friday afternoon:

                 NE  12G20

This should not violate the LCC.  For more information see:

  http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061114-008.PDF

   

Offline clongton

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #7 on: 04/25/2011 02:43 pm »
Really,REALLY keeping my fingers crossed!
I'm making the trip down from Connecticut for the launch.
Chuck - DIRECT co-founder
I started my career on the Saturn-V F-1A engine

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #8 on: 04/25/2011 03:21 pm »
I understand excitement, but anyone familiar with Florida weather should know that predicting a possible thunderstorm at 175 hours away is a bit on the useless side ;)
Not sure it's particularly useful at five hours away! :)

Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #9 on: 04/26/2011 10:55 am »
Still can't see much to harm Friday's attempt. The front should clear Thursday night so expect plenty of sunshine with temps near 80!

Offline MadameConcorde

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #10 on: 04/26/2011 11:28 am »
Still can't see much to harm Friday's attempt. The front should clear Thursday night so expect plenty of sunshine with temps near 80!

Wonderful! Thank you for your updates!

Still have a long trip ahead... I will be so happy to be there and see them off! Two Italians in the ISS!! Hurrah!!!

Forza Italia!! Forza NASA!! Forza Endeavour!!

:-)
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Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #11 on: 04/26/2011 12:26 pm »
First official USAF forecast is out with the same synopsis... 80% acceptable.

---
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): SLF Crosswind

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 0%
Primary concern(s): SLF Crosswind

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 0%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus cloud, low-cloud ceiling

Synoptic Discussion: High pressure is located well east of Florida and the ridge associated with the high is extended north of Florida. Southeast flow is prevalent over the East Central Florida Coast, and showers are present offshore moving north-northwest parallel to the coast. A wave of lower pressure is migrating northwest from the Bahamas and will cause more widespread offshore showers this afternoon. Kennedy Space Center may experience an isolated shower or thunderstorm Tuesday and Wednesday in the early afternoon as the sea breeze causes low level convergence, but the sea breeze will migrate inland quickly, and the majority of afternoon weather will occur inland. On Thursday, a cold front will move into Florida, causing moist, unstable conditions in the afternoon and evening. Also, a late afternoon sea breeze may occur, causing additional low-level convergence. With all of these factors, late afternoon to evening thunderstorms are expected, and some could be severe causing concern for the rotating service structure retract operation. The front will move through overnight, and the weather will improve through Friday morning. Tanking weather will be cloudy, but favorable, and by launch time, the only issue is the wind will shift to the north-northeast, causing a concern for a Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) crosswind violation. Our primary concern for launch is a SLF crosswind violation. The concern for a SLF crosswind violation increases the following day as the winds shift more easterly, and by Sunday, the winds become more favorable from the east-southeast.

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #12 on: 04/26/2011 01:15 pm »
SMG forecast sheets are up...looks like Istres is forecast to be fine during the launch window on Friday.  (Zaragoza and Moron forecasts have a chance of showers at the time on Friday; all of this will be briefed at the top of the hour at KSC.)

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_conus_pg1.html
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/landfcsts_tal_pg1.html
« Last Edit: 04/26/2011 01:15 pm by psloss »

Offline HyperTay

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #13 on: 04/26/2011 01:43 pm »
The band of storms is beginning to roll through here in Biloxi MS right now. Local weather forecaster said it would be tonight and tomorrow, so he was off by half a day. There seems to be a lot of thunder and lightning in this first band, hope it tapers off by the time it gets to FL on Thursday.
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Offline Orbiter

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Offline rdale

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #15 on: 04/26/2011 09:11 pm »
A lot of lightning but nothing too close... Looks like the worst of it is pulling off to the northeast.


Offline MadameConcorde

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #16 on: 04/27/2011 08:45 am »
I hope no damage from the thunderstorms/lightnings and all can/will go as planned.
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Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #17 on: 04/27/2011 11:36 am »
SMG forecast from this morning...no major changes from yesterday.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/smg/SMG_prod.php?pil=OAV&sid=JSC&version=0

Quote
NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SPACEFLIGHT METEOROLOGY GROUP / WS8
LYNDON B. JOHNSON SPACE CENTER
HOUSTON TX              77058
630 AM CDT WEDNESDAY APRIL 27 2011

LANDING FORECAST FOR STS-134

EXPECTED LAUNCH TIME:      1947Z
                DATE:      04/29/11

 RETURN TO LAUNCH SITE (RTLS) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 25 MINUTES
 SHUTTLE LANDING FACILITY...  KENNEDY SPACE CENTER FL
 KSC  SCT030                         7              03012P20


 TRANS-OCEANIC ABORT LANDING SITES (TAL) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 35 MINUTES

 ZARAGOZA...SPAIN
 ZZA  SCT050 BKN080 BKN150           7              10009P14
      CHC SHRA WI 20NM

 MORON...SPAIN
 MRN  SCT035 SCT250                  7              21009P14
      CHC SHRA WI 20NM

 ISTRES...FRANCE
 FMI  FEW030 SCT120 BKN250           7              11006P09


 ABORT-ONCE-AROUND SITE (AOA) - VALID LAUNCH TIME + 90 MINUTES
 KSC  SCT030                         7              03012P20


 PRIMARY LANDING SITE (PLS) - VALID 04/30/11 00Z TO 04/30/11 01Z
 EDW  SKC                            7              25024P35


 FLIGHT RULE VIOLATIONS:
 KSC ... XWIND
 EDW ... GUST/HWIND/TWIND
 NOR ... GUST/HWIND/TWIND/VIS/XWIND
 ZZA ... PRECIP
 MRN ... PRECIP
 FMI ... NONE

Offline psloss

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Re: STS-134 Launch Weather Thread
« Reply #18 on: 04/27/2011 11:42 am »
45th Weather Squadron also out with their morning forecast update:

http://www.patrick.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-070517-025.pdf

No significant changes to the forecast for the launch windows on Friday through Sunday -- same as what Rob posted yesterday:

First official USAF forecast is out with the same synopsis... 80% acceptable.

---
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 5%
Primary concern(s): SLF Crosswind

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 24-hour delay: 30%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 0%
Primary concern(s): SLF Crosswind

Probability of KSC weather prohibiting launch for 48-hour delay: 20%
Probability of KSC weather prohibiting tanking: 0%
Primary concern(s): Cumulus cloud, low-cloud ceiling

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