Boeing explores sale of NASA business

[montyrmanley]

I think Boeing can find a buyer but not for the price they want. I think Boeing should sell, even for pennies on the dollar.

I've been wondering if a foreign bidder like Thales-Alenia or Arianespace or BAE would be interested, but there are probably regulatory hurdles that would prevent such a sale. Blue Origin is the only American company that even has a notional need for  (and the resources to build and operate) a vehicle like the CST-100, but I'd honestly be surprised if they make a play for it unless Boeing basically dumps it for nothing or close to it. New Glenn is hilariously overpowered as a booster for the CST-100, and designing and testing a mating adapter and aeroskirt would be no small matter.

ULA is really the only other American company with a notional need for such a capsule, but even if Boeing sold them the whole kit and kaboodle for a dollar, ULA probably still couldn't muster the R&D money that would be required to get the capsule working on the Vulcan. (I wouldn't be surprised to see ULA itself go on the block soon.)

[DanClemmensen]

What is the size of the Starliner workforce? What is the monthly cost of their leases and other recurring expenses? Pensions? Realistically, when will they get paid by NASA for a mission?

What are Boeing's relationships with their suppliers? The obvious and notorious one is with Aerojet. Basically, Starliner appears to be organized as an OldSpace entity.  It's not clear to me how it can ever be made profitable. IMO it has a negative value to any potential buyer even if Boeing keeps all of its current liabilities.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

IMO it has a negative value to any potential buyer even if Boeing keeps all of its current liabilities.

In terms of Starliner costs and expected revenues, may be. But there other potential values, such as IP, perhaps facilities, staff knowledge (design, construction, operations etc) across Starliner and ISS. That may make it a net positive to someone (I think Blue Origin the most likely).

I don’t expect a sale though, because I’m not confident about Boeing being realistic on the value. Although the new CEO may value just getting it off the books and being able to focus on what’s left.

[Tywin]

Key question - what happens if (when?) Boeing doesn’t find a buyer prepared to pay what Boeing will accept? ULA has been up for sale for over a year without success.

They might be more motivated of sellers now...

~Jon

Boeing's financials are atrocious, I haven't looked at them in a while but jeez... 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/income-statement?freq=Q
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/income-statement?freq=A

They've lost ~$30 billion dollars since 2019, and if you add up all the P/L for the last *decade* it adds up to about $0.

Negative book value per share 

[meekGee]

Maybe ULA can buy it?

[Norm38]

My gut feeling is that Starliner never flies again, and that this will be like when Motorola sold our cell phone division to Google.  Who then strip mined out all the IP, gutted it, and then sold off the dead hulk.

NG might be a buyer, if they feel there is IP they can use.  But not the capsule as is.

[laszlo]

How about SpaceX? Keep it as a firewalled division to satisfy the customer's requirement for dissimilar redundancy and and as a training ground.
 

[sstli2]

How about SpaceX? Keep it as a firewalled division to satisfy the customer's requirement for dissimilar redundancy and and as a training ground.

One, it doesn't make any sense.

Two, it doesn't satisfy the need for dissimilar organizational redundancy.

My bet is on any new buyer flying the Starliner capsule as it is, with issues corrected. Stripping it for parts isn't where the value lies, the value is largely in the validated integrated architecture. An architecture that has had multiple test flights and yes, has performed nominally during almost the entire duration of the two most recent ones.

As it stands, I believe it makes the most sense for Blue, followed in a distant second by Sierra, and third Northrop.

[racevedo88]

How about arianespace, thus giving Europe independent crew access (itars permitting) and adapting for ariane 6

[Coastal Ron]

When I saw this in the news I thought it was a classic "new CEO in a big public company" move, jettisoning parts of the company that their predecessor screwed up so badly that it would take years (and money) to turn around. Well, except for the part of the division where they have a Cost Plus contract to build the most expensive rocket in history (i.e. the SLS), which Boeing plans to keep.

Unfortunately I can't think of any company out there that would want to take such a deal. I think ULA would be a better deal than what Boeing is offering of their Space division assets, yet no one has been able to make an offer for ULA that Boeing and Lockheed Martin would agree to. That tells me that the perceived value of ULA is lower than the current owners want to get, and that leads me to think that Boeing would not get much for the money-losing part of their Space division that they want to sell.

Let's assess what Boeing wants to sell (based on the Boeing Space Products & Services webpage):

- Boeing Satellite Family, which has been in the news recently because yet another one of their satellites exploded spontaneously.

- International Space Station, which maybe they have done a good job at managing, but the ISS will be splashed by 2030, so not a long term asset for the company.

- Gateway, for the Artemis program, which has a questionable future.

- X37-B, which has been a successful program, but doesn't look like it is expanding.

- CST-100 Starliner, which is the real stinker of this division, with no easy way out, and likely a very short useful life if it can get certified.

The X-37B and satellite assets would be the most valuable, either together or separately, but I would imagine Boeing wants to sell the whole thing as a package, and not individually.

And I just can't imagine who would want to take over the Starliner program...

[DanClemmensen]

My gut feeling is that Starliner never flies again, and that this will be like when Motorola sold our cell phone division to Google.  Who then strip mined out all the IP, gutted it, and then sold off the dead hulk.

NG might be a buyer, if they feel there is IP they can use.  But not the capsule as is.

Is there any valuable IP in there at all? Starliner apparently uses a great deal of stuff purchased from vendors, so the Starliner IP is probably mostly at the system level. IMO the system architecture is considerably inferior to Dragon or the Chinese capsules. In particular it cannot be adapted to carry unpressurized cargo and it expends a whole bunch of expensive parts.

[catdlr]

My gut feeling is that Starliner never flies again, and that this will be like when Motorola sold our cell phone division to Google.  Who then strip mined out all the IP, gutted it, and then sold off the dead hulk.

NG might be a buyer, if they feel there is IP they can use.  But not the capsule as is.

...IMO the system architecture is considerably inferior to Dragon or the Chinese capsules. In particular it cannot be adapted to carry unpressurized cargo and it expends a whole bunch of expensive parts.

I agree that it appears the Chinese are primarily focused on replicating Dragon Capsules, as well as the Falcon 9. It's not a good sign when your own capsule, Starlink, isn't featured in any of the brochures or videos from new Chinese rocket companies.

[DanClemmensen]

My gut feeling is that Starliner never flies again, and that this will be like when Motorola sold our cell phone division to Google.  Who then strip mined out all the IP, gutted it, and then sold off the dead hulk.

NG might be a buyer, if they feel there is IP they can use.  But not the capsule as is.

Is there any valuable IP in there at all? Starliner apparently uses a great deal of stuff purchased from vendors, so the Starliner IP is probably mostly at the system level. IMO the system architecture is considerably inferior to Dragon or the Chinese capsules. In particular it cannot be adapted to carry unpressurized cargo and it expends a whole bunch of expensive parts.

Reviewing CST-100 (Starliner) history, I am being overly harsh by judging this architecture by current standards. The architecture was conceived in 2010 with a goal of producing it by 2015 if NASA could provide enough funding.  If you are trying to compress the schedule like that, you need a conservative architecture, and apparently that's what they did. NASA did not come through with a cost+ sole-source contract, and predictably NASA did not get a shuttle replacement when they needed it.

[JEF_300]

I really think in space manufacturing should be a bigger part of this discussion. If you're a company that's serious about in space production, at some point tens of kilograms from a Varda or whoever capsule isn't going to be enough anymore. In the short term, Dragon, Dream Chaser, and Starliner are going to be the only options for bringing stuff back from orbit in bulk. Of those, Dragon has the complications of sea recovery, and Dream Chaser is pretty volume constrained. Not that Dragon or Dream Chaser would be bad options, but Starliner might be better.

I don't really think that any of the in-space manufacturing start-ups have the funding to buy Starliner mind you, but when we're discussing it's market potential, this is the sort of thing we ought to be thinking about.

[StraumliBlight]

I really think in space manufacturing should be a bigger part of this discussion. If you're a company that's serious about in space production, at some point tens of kilograms from a Varda or whoever capsule isn't going to be enough anymore. In the short term, Dragon, Dream Chaser, and Starliner are going to be the only options for bringing stuff back from orbit in bulk. Of those, Dragon has the complications of sea recovery, and Dream Chaser is pretty volume constrained. Not that Dragon or Dream Chaser would be bad options, but Starliner might be better.

I don't really think that any of the in-space manufacturing start-ups have the funding to buy Starliner mind you, but when we're discussing it's market potential, this is the sort of thing we ought to be thinking about.

Outpost is already building cargo container sized reentry vehicles.

https://twitter.com/outpostspace/status/1820870135785435204

[JEF_300]

It also fits incredibly well with Orbital Reef, which has already been depicted with Starliner shuttling passengers to and from it, and for which Boeing was already contracted to manage space station operations (this is also for sale).

Quoting from the Blue crew capsule thread. Emphasis mine.

I think this is actually the most important point, or at least the one where the answers are most clear.

If Boeing is serious about getting rid of their station operations division (unit? group?), which Blue did already contract to manage Orbital Reef, Blue is probably gonna want to buy at least that, with or without Starliner.

[freddo411]

How about arianespace, thus giving Europe independent crew access (itars permitting) and adapting for ariane 6

This is an interesting idea.

Pros:   
* Europe would have and control (and pay for) the flight of European astronauts.   Would take 3 steps up in terms of being at the same level as NASA/China/Russia
* SL needs a new rocket to fly on .. A6 would be a good fit
* It would be good for A6 to have SL as additional flight demand
* The service module could be produced in Europe fairly easily
* SL could land on the European continent ... Spain would be a good spot
* NASA would have an interesting outcome to having two independent crew launch providers.

Cons:
* Absolutely dead end idea in terms of National Pride...   A capsule designed by Boeing in the US would be the European, independent spaceflight capability?
* I don't think that Europe or Ariane would want to absorb the costs that this would entail.

[montyrmanley]

How about SpaceX? Keep it as a firewalled division to satisfy the customer's requirement for dissimilar redundancy and and as a training ground.

As others have noted, it wouldn't make much sense. Why?

First, the CST-100 as a spacecraft is a worse (and more expensive) version of something SpaceX already has in the Dragon. SpaceX's main strength in manufacturing has always been their vertical integration, and the CST-100 would bring not just Boeing assets, but also a lot of subcontractors that SpaceX would then have to manage.

Second, Acquiring the CST-100 business for the staff and IP wouldn't make much sense either, and apart from the reasons stated above, there's also the reality that the staff bring habits and  training from Boeing that probably would not mesh well with the build-it-fly-it-break-it-build-it-better ethos at SpaceX. And it's not clear to me that any of the IP (software or hardware) associated with the spacecraft would be useful either. Boeing's struggles with software are the stuff of legend by now, and it's pretty obvious that they have little if anything to teach SpaceX in this area.

The only reason I could see Elon buying this from Boeing is to keep someone else from getting it (BO or ULA). And even then, Elon would probably deduce -- as I have -- that it just wouldn't be worth the money since the CST-100 really isn't any kind of threat to SpaceX's business.

[DanClemmensen]

The only reason I could see Elon buying this from Boeing is to keep someone else from getting it (BO or ULA). And even then, Elon would probably deduce -- as I have -- that it just wouldn't be worth the money since the CST-100 really isn't any kind of threat to SpaceX's business.

If you have a sufficiently twisted mind, you could see SpaceX secretly encouraging another company to buy Starliner in some form. That's if you think Starliner has a negative value and will distract the buyer from doing anything useful. It would also continue the illusion that NASA is still pursuing dissimilar redundancy. It also makes Crew Dragon look good by comparison and lets them further increase the price of the inevitable six additional Crew Dragon CCP flights.

[clongton]

The only reason I could see Elon buying this from Boeing is to keep someone else from getting it (BO or ULA). And even then, Elon would probably deduce -- as I have -- that it just wouldn't be worth the money since the CST-100 really isn't any kind of threat to SpaceX's business.

If you have a sufficiently twisted mind, you could see SpaceX secretly encouraging another company to buy Starliner in some form. That's if you think Starliner has a negative value and will distract the buyer from doing anything useful. It would also continue the illusion that NASA is still pursuing dissimilar redundancy. It also makes Crew Dragon look good by comparison and lets them further increase the price of the inevitable six additional Crew Dragon CCP flights.

I agree with your top line conclusion that Elon wouldn't buy it but I disagree with your reasoning why.
Elon is all about reducing the cost of getting to space as THE key to humanity becoming a true spacefaring civilization and he welcomes competition as the best way to do that. So HE wouldn't buy it because it gains him nothing. But if someone does buy it he will SINCERELY wish them well and cheer them on to hopefully succeed. He will gladly reap the rewards of being the only real game in town while that lasts, but I believe he looks forward to the day when he has to sharpen his pencil to win a contract on an even playing field. It's just how he is. He is not profit driven, so long as he is earning enough profit to easily fund his visions. He is not a business tycoon; he is a missionary, a true believer, with a vision and deep pockets.