Boeing explores sale of NASA business

[sstli2]

Is Starliner at all compatible with New Glenn?

The GSE for a crewed launch is expensive, complicated, and needs to be certified.  New Glenn would need to be crew-rated.

Some of which is already built (the tower), and the crew-rating is something Bezos has already acknowledged as being part of the plan.

Sorry, I was unclear. I should have said "GSE enhancements", not "GSE". I think it took SpaceX about a year to upgrade SLC-40 to accommodate crew and get it certified.

You were perfectly clear, and nothing you said was misunderstood. I am merely stating that they may not be starting from zero.

On a separate note - is anyone here willing to make a case for any other buyer? ULA is already for sale, and is owned by Boeing, so they aren't buying Starliner. Sierra Space could be possible, but it would seem to be redundant with Dreamchaser, and I'm not sure they want to take on the liability. RocketLab would get stretched too thin, I'm not sure if Neutron is even capable of launching Starliner, and they have expressed no desire to pursue crewed launch. Lockheed already has Orion. Northrop already has Cygnus. There really are not too many options out there besides Blue.

Blue:

- Has already flown people to space.
- Has a stated mission of millions of people working in space.
- Has expressed a desire to pursue crewed orbital launch.
- Has a crew access tower.
- Is known to be actively researching a crewed capsule.
- Has a launch vehicle that they intend to fly often enough to get crew rated.
- Has capital to inject.

[Reynold]

Good arguments for Blue, but given they already seemed to have taken a pass on ULA (at least at the requested price), which makes a profit on its launches and would provide an a smooth entrée into military contracts, I would be surprised if they want to take Starliner. 

They would probably have to also acquire and pay for the people and facilities that build Starliner, you can't just get a parts list and start building the thing from scratch.  That leaves them either quickly downsizing a workforce and shuttering facilities, or continuing to build and service Starliners that would, at best, break even on the few remaining flights before the ISS is deorbited.  Plus I would be surprised if NASA would finish certification of the Starliner even as quickly as they might now if the production people and equipment are in the middle of changing hands, that can't possibly speed things up. 

Blue probably thinks, at least under its new CEO, that they can build and operate something themselves that matches the Starliner for less than Starliner would cost.  Given Boeings cost structure and other issues, they may be right. 

[jongoff]

Key question - what happens if (when?) Boeing doesn’t find a buyer prepared to pay what Boeing will accept? ULA has been up for sale for over a year without success.

They might be more motivated of sellers now...

~Jon

[jstrotha0975]

Can someone do a mockup of Starliner on New Glenn just to see what it would look like?

[wannamoonbase]

I think this is a good move by Boeing.  They need to focus and adjust their corporate culture.

They will find a buyer for the NASA business, even if the value ends up looking like a smaller than expected sale price.

I don't know what company will buy this, but wouldn't it be interesting if Blue plucked up ULA and Boeings space business and absorbed those operations and migrated to a great space future (on reuseable rockets).

[JEF_300]

Quoting myself from another thread with my thoughts on a Blue Origin purchase:

I'm almost positive that Blue will at least make an offer.

Starliner is far from what Blue would probably ideally want out of a manned spacecraft, but it exists today, and the time savings buying it could offer Blue are kind of invaluable. In the short to mid term, Starliner would be useful for servicing Blue Reef. Also, Boeing is looking to sell it's ISS support team as well, and having that team's experience on Blue Reef wouldn't hurt either. In the mid to long term, the path to a Lunar Starliner is pretty clear.

It's not perfect, but it could allow Blue to progress down it's roadmap a lot faster.

All depends on the price, of course.

[sstli2]

Good arguments for Blue, but given they already seemed to have taken a pass on ULA (at least at the requested price), which makes a profit on its launches and would provide an a smooth entrée into military contracts, I would be surprised if they want to take Starliner.

I don't view Blue as economic buyer, but as a strategic one. With ULA, the strategic value proposition was not clear. Centaur had some value to them, but ULA was being valued as a lot more than Centaur.

There doesn't appear to be any material economic ROI in Starliner given the imminent retirement of the ISS, and so I would anticipate most buyers would be doing so with strategic motives. Anyone with the specific goal of orbital crewed flight would be interested in the Starliner IP.

I concur with JEF_300 on one specific point - the technical complexity of a crewed capsule is immense and should not be underestimated. Eschewing the Starliner option in favor of a largely non-existent homegrown solution could amount to as much as a decade setback in the timeline to operational capability.

[JEF_300]

I also think there's a case to be made for Northrop Grumman buying Starliner. Someone up thread said that NG already has Cygnus, but Cygnus can't carry crew, or return cargo to Earth. And Starliner is about the perfect size to launch on Firefly's MLV, once the Atlas Vs are gone. It would be a nice fit for NG... if they want it. And of course, it's not at all clear that they do.

Basically, if Northrop Grumman think there is a future market in either LEO crew launch or LEO downmass, AND they can get it pretty cheap, I can imagine them buying Starliner. So, unlikely, but not totally insane.

[niwax]

Is Starliner at all compatible with New Glenn?

The GSE for a crewed launch is expensive, complicated, and needs to be certified.  New Glenn would need to be crew-rated.

Some of which is already built (the tower), and the crew-rating is something Bezos has already acknowledged as being part of the plan.

I can't envision anyone else buying Starliner, except Blue. And unlike ULA, Starliner may actually be complementary to their existing assets.

There was at least one private equity firm making a play for ULA, I guess Starliner could be a part of a not-quite-old-space „innovative“ portfolio as a company that could win a spot in most new competitions until it is sold off or goes public for a profit. One hand in NSSL, one in private space stations, a few vague NASA contracts. Buy for $3 billion, dump for $6 billion.

[StraumliBlight]

Can someone do a mockup of Starliner on New Glenn just to see what it would look like?

I had a go...

[JEF_300]

It does look a bit silly, huh? A 13 tonne spacecraft on a rocket that lofts well over 30 tonnes.

I guess they could co-manifest it with a really big cargo/habitation/airlock/other module on every flight?

[jstrotha0975]

Getting Starliner IP for pennies on the dollar would be attractive to Rocket Lab as well, especially the Infrastructure that comes with it.

[matthewkantar]

For sale: Inoperable, unprofitable capsule designed to fly on imminently retiring rocket to imminently retiring space station. Only serious inquiries please.

[sstli2]

Can someone do a mockup of Starliner on New Glenn just to see what it would look like?

I had a go...

[matthewkantar]

Getting Starliner IP for pennies on the dollar would be attractive to Rocket Lab as well, especially the Infrastructure that comes with it.

Can you give examples of what Starliner infrastructure or IP would be compatible with RL’s operation, or useful to them in any way?

[sstli2]

Getting Starliner IP for pennies on the dollar would be attractive to Rocket Lab as well, especially the Infrastructure that comes with it.

Can you give examples of what Starliner infrastructure or IP would be compatible with RL’s operation, or useful to them in any way?

Concur. I have seen several instances of Peter Beck being confronted with the prospect of human spaceflight and his response every time is pretty unambiguous.

[ZachF]

Key question - what happens if (when?) Boeing doesn’t find a buyer prepared to pay what Boeing will accept? ULA has been up for sale for over a year without success.

They might be more motivated of sellers now...

~Jon

Boeing's financials are atrocious, I haven't looked at them in a while but jeez... 

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/income-statement?freq=Q
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/BA/boeing/income-statement?freq=A

They've lost ~$30 billion dollars since 2019, and if you add up all the P/L for the last *decade* it adds up to about $0.

[jimvela]

Boeing should pay someone to take the liability away. 

[AmigaClone]

Boeing should pay someone to take the liability away.

Looking back, had Boeing done that five years ago they might be better off financially.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I vacillate between this:

For sale: Inoperable, unprofitable capsule designed to fly on imminently retiring rocket to imminently retiring space station. Only serious inquiries please.

and this:

I concur with JEF_300 on one specific point - the technical complexity of a crewed capsule is immense and should not be underestimated. Eschewing the Starliner option in favor of a largely non-existent homegrown solution could amount to as much as a decade setback in the timeline to operational capability.

I think Boeing can find a buyer but not for the price they want. I think Boeing should sell, even for pennies on the dollar.