SpaceX F9 : Starlink group 2-2 : CCSFS SLC-40 : TBD

[vaporcobra]

Is this launch NET January?

Cross-post re: Starlink 4-37, noting no changes today regarding Starlink 2-2:

SFN Launch Schedule, updated December 5:
Launch date TBD.  (No change to the Starlink 2-2 listing.)

Assuming they "could" do 7 days between launches from SLC-40 (3 times previous), this or Starlink 5-1 could be squeezed in at the end of the year

Worth noting that that would require SpaceX to break through an apparent schedule barrier: they have never launched (from either coast) later than December 23rd or earlier than January 6th.

[wannamoonbase]

Is this launch NET January?

Cross-post re: Starlink 4-37, noting no changes today regarding Starlink 2-2:

SFN Launch Schedule, updated December 5:
Launch date TBD.  (No change to the Starlink 2-2 listing.)

Assuming they "could" do 7 days between launches from SLC-40 (3 times previous), this or Starlink 5-1 could be squeezed in at the end of the year

Worth noting that that would require SpaceX to break through an apparent schedule barrier: they have never launched (from either coast) later than December 23rd or earlier than January 6th.

Yet with this year's launch cadence they could fit in 2 or 3 flights between those dates.

[vaporcobra]

Is this launch NET January?

Cross-post re: Starlink 4-37, noting no changes today regarding Starlink 2-2:

SFN Launch Schedule, updated December 5:
Launch date TBD.  (No change to the Starlink 2-2 listing.)

Assuming they "could" do 7 days between launches from SLC-40 (3 times previous), this or Starlink 5-1 could be squeezed in at the end of the year

Worth noting that that would require SpaceX to break through an apparent schedule barrier: they have never launched (from either coast) later than December 23rd or earlier than January 6th.

Yet with this year's launch cadence they could fit in 2 or 3 flights between those dates.

In December 2021, SpaceX launched five times in 18 days and then didn't launch at all from Dec 22 to Jan 5. Best evidence yet that's it's probably just the only holiday season SpaceX takes seriously, made easier to rationalize by the increase in airspace closures and the range's  own holiday limitations.

[crandles57]

I think we have had scheduled launch dates between ~28 Dec and ~31 Dec.

While 11Dec to 16 Dec is possible because Hakuto is RTLS, if both droneships are used on 16th (21:21 UTC) and 17th then I am not sure there is time for a droneship to be ready on 23rd and even that would involve maritime crew at sea on 25th. 24th seems unlikely due to travel restrictions which likely continue at least through 26th?

I am not ruling out one more launch from pad 40 after 16th Dec, but two launches seems highly improbable.

2 Transporter mission have been to drone ship, 3 RTLS. 22/23rd and 30/31 looks more doable if Transporter 6 is RTLS. Do we know for certain if Transporter 6 is RTLS?

Launch Photography has  "Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches" before the January launches, so perhaps that is a indicator that two more pad 40 launches is under consideration.

[realnouns]

Transporter 6 would be RTLS so that would give extra time to reset the ASDSs

[zubenelgenubi]

Transporter-6 is scheduled to launch December NET the 27th 22 from SLC-40, LZ-1 first stage landing--no ASDS out and back.

Unless there is an unlikely open launch slot at LC-39A in late December, this launch will be NET January.  (Unlikely because there are perhaps two Falcon Heavy launches from there in January, and perhaps three Falcon launches total--a full schedule.)

The Starlink 2-2 launch between Christmas and New Year's is plausible.  ~Dec 30?

Is this launch NET January?

Cross-post re: Starlink 4-37, noting no changes today regarding Starlink 2-2:

SFN Launch Schedule, updated December 5:
Launch date TBD.  (No change to the Starlink 2-2 listing.)

Edited

[scr00chy]

If this is still planned for December, LC-39A seems to be the more likely launch pad.

Unless Transporter-6 has slipped into January, in which case SLC-40 is also an option for Starlink.

[zubenelgenubi]

A chance that this launch will proceed from SLC-40 in late December, after mPower and before Transporter-6?  Circa December 23?

A prompt turnaround would be required for one of the ASDS after the December 16 launches.

What are the FAA cutout days for Christmas and New Year's holidays?

Dec 16
(~Dec 23)
Jan 2

Unless Transporter-6 has slipped into January, in which case SLC-40 is also an option for Starlink.

Cross-post:

Launch date of Transporter-6 was moved to Jan 02, 2023.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 2-2 takes Transporter-6's place in the SLC-40 launch queue:
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated late in the day December 14:

A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on late December.

Before or after Christmas? 🎄

[scr00chy]

Starlink 2-2 takes Transporter-6's place in the SLC-40 launch queue:
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated late in the day December 14:

A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch from pad 40 on late December.

Before or after Christmas? 🎄

Starlink 2-2 slipped to January and it's Starlink 5-1 that's planned for late December (specifically Dec 28), as per Spaceflight Now and Next Spaceflight.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 2-2 slipped to January and it's Starlink 5-1 that's planned for late December (specifically Dec 28), as per Spaceflight Now and Next Spaceflight.

Information updated during the hours between my post and scroochy's post.

NextSpaceFlight, updated December 15:
Launch NET January, still SLC-40


There is time for a launch campaign between the January 2 launch of Transporter-6 and the January 18 launch of GPS III-6.

Starlink 2-2 might launch during this opportunity?

Neither Transporter-6 nor USSF-44 will use ASDS for first stage landings, so ASDS availability will not gate launch timing.


What first stage will launch this flight?

Available first stages and most recent landing date:
1052.8    Sep 5 (last use before modifications to return to a Falcon Heavy side booster to launch ViaSat-3 Americas NET January)
1060.15  Oct 8  (Transporter-6)
1062.11  Oct 20  (Starlink 5-1)
1076.2    Nov 26  (OneWeb Flight 16)
1069.5    Dec 8
1073.6    Dec 11  (Amazonas Nexus)
1067.9    Dec 16
1058.16  Dec 17
1062.12  Dec 28
1060.16  Jan 3  (n/a due to deep-dive examination?)

Edited

[crandles57]

Starlink 2-2 might launch during this opportunity?

Early Jan for Oneweb from pad 40 per Launch photography (Dec 16 update) makes that a better bet.

[zubenelgenubi]

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated December 17:

A Falcon 9 will launch a batch of OneWeb internet satellites from pad 40 on early January TBD. The first stage will land back at the Cape. <snip> And a Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch GPS III-6 for the U.S. Space Force on January 18.

And, no mention of upcoming Starlink launches from either LC-39A or SLC-40.

So, I suspect NET late January, after GPS III-6, from SLC-40.

[zubenelgenubi]

So, I suspect NET late January, after GPS III-6, from SLC-40.

Belated cross-post:

Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated December 25, my bold:

FALCON 9
...A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch GPS III-6 for the U.S. Space Force on January 18. Upcoming launches include more Starlink batches. A Falcon 9 from pad 40 will launch the Amazonas Nexus satellite for Hispasat on late January or February...

After GPS III-6 and before Amazonas Nexus?

[crandles57]

GPS3-6
A starlink launch
Amazonas Nexus

all from pad 40, with drone ship landings, would seem to push Amazonas Nexus to Feb not late Jan. (perhaps esp if there is also a starlink launch from 39A requiring a drone ship)

GPS3-6 then Amazonas Nexus and a 100 target would seem to make it likely late Jan and odd for the 'or February' to have been added.

So perhaps that should push us towards a third possible interpretation that SpaceX hasn't decided the order yet. So if Amazonas Nexus is next after GPS3-6 then it is Late Jan but if they squeeze in a starlink launch from pad 40 then it will be February?

But perhaps that is just overinterpreting the 'late Jan or Feb'.

[Zed_Noir]

GPS3-6
A starlink launch
Amazonas Nexus

all from pad 40, with drone ship landings, would seem to push Amazonas Nexus to Feb not late Jan. (perhaps esp if there is also a starlink launch from 39A requiring a drone ship)

GPS3-6 then Amazonas Nexus and a 100 target would seem to make it likely late Jan and odd for the 'or February' to have been added.

So perhaps that should push us towards a third possible interpretation that SpaceX hasn't decided the order yet. So if Amazonas Nexus is next after GPS3-6 then it is Late Jan but if they squeeze in a starlink launch from pad 40 then it will be February?

But perhaps that is just overinterpreting the 'late Jan or Feb'.

Perhaps there is uncertainty as to when Amazonas Nexus is ready for launch. SpaceX could switch the launch order if Amazonas Nexus is ready for launch in late January. A paying customer should have priority over internal SpaceX payload.

[ZachS09]

GPS3-6
A starlink launch
Amazonas Nexus

all from pad 40, with drone ship landings, would seem to push Amazonas Nexus to Feb not late Jan. (perhaps esp if there is also a starlink launch from 39A requiring a drone ship)

GPS3-6 then Amazonas Nexus and a 100 target would seem to make it likely late Jan and odd for the 'or February' to have been added.

So perhaps that should push us towards a third possible interpretation that SpaceX hasn't decided the order yet. So if Amazonas Nexus is next after GPS3-6 then it is Late Jan but if they squeeze in a starlink launch from pad 40 then it will be February?

But perhaps that is just overinterpreting the 'late Jan or Feb'.

Perhaps there is uncertainty as to when Amazonas Nexus is ready for launch. SpaceX could switch the launch order if Amazonas Nexus is ready for launch in late January. A paying customer should have priority over internal SpaceX payload.

Right on. That was my point I made during the O3b mPOWER F1 & Starlink 4-37 campaigns.

External comes first.

[scr00chy]

Could this be the next LC-39A launch?

[zubenelgenubi]

Could this be the next LC-39A launch?

Or Starlink 5-2?
Starlink 2-2 still listed for CCSFS SLC-40.

[zubenelgenubi]

Starlink 2-2?
Ben Cooper's Launch Photography Viewing Guide, updated January 18:
[Next Florida Falcon 9/Heavy launch] The next SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from pad 40 will launch a Starlink batch on January TBD.
<snip>
[But also]
A Falcon 9 will launch a Starlink batch on February TBD.