Author Topic: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - summer 2023  (Read 19595 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Presser:

  VIASAT SELECTS UNITED LAUNCH ALLIANCE’S PROVEN ATLAS V ROCKET FOR COMMERCIAL SATELLITE LAUNCH

PARIS, Sept. 10, 2018 – Global communications company, Viasat Inc., (Nasdaq: VSAT) announced today it selected United Launch Alliance’s (ULA’s) proven Atlas V vehicle to launch one of its ViaSat-3 satellite missions. This is the first commercial contract ULA has directly signed since assuming responsibility for the marketing and sales of the Atlas V launch vehicle from Lockheed Martin Commercial Launch Services earlier this year.

The Viasat mission will carry one of the ViaSat-3 series spacecraft and is scheduled to launch in the 2020 - 2022 timeframe from Space Launch Complex-41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. This mission will launch aboard an Atlas V 551 configuration vehicle, the largest in the Atlas V fleet. The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

The selection of Atlas V for one of the ViaSat-3 missions is the next step in implementing Viasat’s integrated launch strategy which is designed to ensure the on-time launch of all of the ViaSat-3 spacecraft through launch vehicle diversity and an integrated approach to launch planning. Viasat will announce specific mission assignments for each of the contracted launch vehicles at a later date.

“ULA continues to demonstrate schedule certainty and flexibility, as well as be a trustworthy and reliable business partner. This coupled with unmatched Atlas V launch vehicle reliability and tailored mission design capabilities made ULA a strong partner for a ViaSat-3 launch mission,” said Dave Ryan, president, Space Systems at Viasat. “ULA is known for providing an innovative launch solution that is focused on mission success, which will allow us to meet our business objectives to bring high-speed, high-quality broadband connectivity to meet end-user demand.”       

“ULA’s Atlas V launch vehicle is the most reliable launch vehicle in the world and we could not be more pleased that Viasat, a leading satellite broadband innovator, has recognized the value the Atlas V can offer, and decided to select this rocket to launch its critical commercial communications satellite,” said Tory Bruno, ULA’s president and CEO.

The ViaSat-3 class of Ka-band satellites is expected to provide unprecedented capabilities in terms of service speed and flexibility for a satellite platform. The first two satellites will focus on the Americas and on Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), respectively, with the third satellite planned for the APAC region, completing Viasat's global service coverage. Each ViaSat-3 class satellite is expected to deliver more than 1-Terabit per second of network capacity, and to leverage high levels of flexibility to dynamically direct capacity to where customers are located.

Atlas V has launched 78 missions with 100 percent success including 17 successful commercial missions. The workhorse rocket also delivered critical science missions for NASA such as Mars Science Lab, Pluto New Horizons and Mars InSight, and critical missions for the Department of Defense including Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) and Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS).



ViaSat-3 Americas Falcon Heavy launch thread
« Last Edit: 11/09/2022 09:36 am by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline soltasto

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #1 on: 09/11/2018 04:41 pm »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

Source, PBdeS: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1039537710434840576

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #2 on: 09/11/2018 05:48 pm »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

Source, PBdeS: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1039537710434840576
Let me make it clear that this launch is the first of 2 ViaSat-3 EMEA satellites with still present options for further ViaSat-3 EMEA and ViaSat-3 APAC satellites.

Original full sized constellation coverage plan including expansion options before EUTELSAT backed out was:
ViaSat-3 EMEA-1 (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA-2 (Atlantic)
ViaSat-3 EMEA-3 (Central)
ViaSat-3 EMEA-4 (Pacific)
ViaSat-3 APAC-1 (West)
ViaSat-3 APAC-2 (Central)
ViaSat-3 APAC-3 (East)

Current initial coverage plan post EUTELSAT:
ViaSat-3 EMEA-1 (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA-2 (Central (Americas))
ViaSat-3 APAC (Central (Pan Asia))
« Last Edit: 09/11/2018 08:21 pm by russianhalo117 »

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #3 on: 09/11/2018 06:09 pm »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

Source, PBdeS: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1039537710434840576
let me make it clear that this launch is the first of 2 ViaSat-3 EMEA satellites with options for further ViaSat-3 EMEA and ViaSat-3 Asia satellites.
Original full sized constellation coverage plan including expansion options before EUTELSAT backed out was:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Atlantic)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Pacific)
ViaSat-3 Asia (West)
ViaSat-3 Asia (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

Current initial coverage plan post EUTELSAT:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

I don't think that is correct?  The first two are supposed to be for the Americas and for EMEA, with a later one for Asia.  Considering the problems ViaSat has had even trying to arrange the first 3 I would have to think that expanded plan was very speculative and not all that serious.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #4 on: 09/11/2018 06:21 pm »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

Source, PBdeS: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1039537710434840576
let me make it clear that this launch is the first of 2 ViaSat-3 EMEA satellites with options for further ViaSat-3 EMEA and ViaSat-3 Asia satellites.
Original full sized constellation coverage plan including expansion options before EUTELSAT backed out was:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Atlantic)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Pacific)
ViaSat-3 Asia (West)
ViaSat-3 Asia (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

Current initial coverage plan post EUTELSAT:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

I don't think that is correct?  The first two are supposed to be for the Americas and for EMEA, with a later one for Asia.  Considering the problems ViaSat has had even trying to arrange the first 3 I would have to think that expanded plan was very speculative and not all that serious.
There are still contract options to build the rest of the satellites. The bottom list is what is currently procured. The plan changed quickly after EUTELSAT backed out and joint funding for the 4 ViaSat-3 EMEA sats went away.
« Last Edit: 09/11/2018 06:27 pm by russianhalo117 »

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #5 on: 09/11/2018 06:26 pm »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

Source, PBdeS: https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1039537710434840576
let me make it clear that this launch is the first of 2 ViaSat-3 EMEA satellites with options for further ViaSat-3 EMEA and ViaSat-3 Asia satellites.
Original full sized constellation coverage plan including expansion options before EUTELSAT backed out was:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Atlantic)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Pacific)
ViaSat-3 Asia (West)
ViaSat-3 Asia (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

Current initial coverage plan post EUTELSAT:
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Europe and Middle East)
ViaSat-3 EMEA (Central)
ViaSat-3 Asia (East)

I don't think that is correct?  The first two are supposed to be for the Americas and for EMEA, with a later one for Asia.  Considering the problems ViaSat has had even trying to arrange the first 3 I would have to think that expanded plan was very speculative and not all that serious.
There are still contract options to build the rest of the satellites. The bottom list is what is currently procured:

They didn't procure two satellites for EMEA and they haven't procured the third satellite yet.

Offline Brovane

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #6 on: 09/12/2018 02:25 am »
Quote
The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

ViaSat must really want that bird into operation faster considering they are willing to pay the extra money for a 551 configuration.   
"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #7 on: 09/12/2018 02:41 am »
Quote
The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

ViaSat must really want that bird into operation faster considering they are willing to pay the extra money for a 551 configuration.

It's a really big electric propulsion sat (if previous reports are still correct it will be bigger than SES-12).  ViaSat's current birds generate higher revenue than a typical GEO comsat.  Shaving a few months off of the orbit raising time might make up for the difference in launch costs.  Considering the new version of FH hasn't flown yet and may only have a few flights before ViaSat-3 starts launching it's not an unreasonable decision.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 01:59 pm by gongora »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #8 on: 09/12/2018 05:55 am »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

The next question I have is why didn't they bid? Was the required orbit too high for either Falcon Heavy or Ariane 5? Was the required timeline too short?
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #9 on: 09/12/2018 06:07 am »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

The next question I have is why didn't they bid? Was the required orbit too high for either Falcon Heavy or Ariane 5? Was the required timeline too short?
Other factors as before EUTELSAT dropped out to create its own new fleet of HTS and VHTS sats Ariane-5ECA was the launcher of choice due to domestic cost advantage.

Offline woods170

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #10 on: 09/12/2018 07:00 am »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

The next question I have is why didn't they bid? Was the required orbit too high for either Falcon Heavy or Ariane 5? Was the required timeline too short?
Other factors as before EUTELSAT dropped out to create its own new fleet of HTS and VHTS sats Ariane-5ECA was the launcher of choice due to domestic cost advantage.

Like Gwynne suggested: ask Viasat why Arianespace and SpaceX didn't bother to bid.

Speculation: Something about the Viasat-3 RFP must have been either really unattractive or impossible to do for Arianespace and SpaceX.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 07:01 am by woods170 »

Offline Semmel

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #11 on: 09/12/2018 09:00 am »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

The next question I have is why didn't they bid? Was the required orbit too high for either Falcon Heavy or Ariane 5? Was the required timeline too short?
Other factors as before EUTELSAT dropped out to create its own new fleet of HTS and VHTS sats Ariane-5ECA was the launcher of choice due to domestic cost advantage.

Like Gwynne suggested: ask Viasat why Arianespace and SpaceX didn't bother to bid.

Speculation: Something about the Viasat-3 RFP must have been either really unattractive or impossible to do for Arianespace and SpaceX.

Yeah, and we will not know what that is. There are too many options, just to speculate about a few: Maybe it does not fit into the F9 fairing and is too large for dual launch in an Ariane. Single launch with Ariane could be too expensive. Or maybe it has vibration requirements that both launchers cannot meet. Or it wants direct GEO insertion which requires expendable core FH or single launch with Ariane. Who knows? The range of possibilities is too large to determine the reason.

Offline soltasto

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #12 on: 09/12/2018 09:29 am »
According to statements by SpaceX's COO and ArianeSpace's CEO neither company bid on this launch.

The next question I have is why didn't they bid? Was the required orbit too high for either Falcon Heavy or Ariane 5? Was the required timeline too short?
Other factors as before EUTELSAT dropped out to create its own new fleet of HTS and VHTS sats Ariane-5ECA was the launcher of choice due to domestic cost advantage.

Like Gwynne suggested: ask Viasat why Arianespace and SpaceX didn't bother to bid.

Speculation: Something about the Viasat-3 RFP must have been either really unattractive or impossible to do for Arianespace and SpaceX.

Yeah, and we will not know what that is. There are too many options, just to speculate about a few: Maybe it does not fit into the F9 fairing and is too large for dual launch in an Ariane. Single launch with Ariane could be too expensive. Or maybe it has vibration requirements that both launchers cannot meet. Or it wants direct GEO insertion which requires expendable core FH or single launch with Ariane. Who knows? The range of possibilities is too large to determine the reason.

Or maybe they just weren't allowed to bid or were asked to not bid. My guess is that ViaSat wants every launch on a different launch vehicle, for some reason. It was said that 3 companies competed for this launch, so if SpaceX and ArianeSpace didn't bid, the possible remaining companies are ULA with Atlas V, ILS with Proton and Angara, and either Blue Origin with the New Glenn or MHI with the H3. China is also a possibility.

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #13 on: 09/12/2018 04:27 pm »
They didn't procure two satellites for EMEA and they haven't procured the third satellite yet.
This contradicts your statement:

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm
Quote
...
The new first of the news spacecraft for the american market is scheduled to launch in late 2019 or early 2020 and is expected to provide more than 15 years of service life. The second satellite for EMEA will follow soon after. The asian satellite is not yet ordered. The first two busses were were firmly contracted with Boeing in July 2016 for ViaSat 3 Americas and ViaSat 3 EMEA.

ViaSat 3 EMEA was originally to be procured jointly with Eutelsat, but in May 2018, Eutelsat dropped out of the joint venture.
...

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #14 on: 09/12/2018 04:32 pm »
They didn't procure two satellites for EMEA and they haven't procured the third satellite yet.
This contradicts your statement:

https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm
Quote
...
The new first of the news spacecraft for the american market is scheduled to launch in late 2019 or early 2020 and is expected to provide more than 15 years of service life. The second satellite for EMEA will follow soon after. The asian satellite is not yet ordered. The first two busses were were firmly contracted with Boeing in July 2016 for ViaSat 3 Americas and ViaSat 3 EMEA.

ViaSat 3 EMEA was originally to be procured jointly with Eutelsat, but in May 2018, Eutelsat dropped out of the joint venture.
...

That doesn't contradict what I said at all.  They're currently building one satellite for the Americas and one for EMEA, with the third satellite bus to be procured soon.

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #15 on: 09/12/2018 04:43 pm »
Or maybe they just weren't allowed to bid or were asked to not bid.
Maybe the fact that Viasat had to switch from FH to Ariane for Viasat-2 after the FH schedule slipped contributed.  https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/02/15/viasat-trades-in-falcon-heavy-launch-for-ariane-5/

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #16 on: 09/12/2018 05:29 pm »
Quote
The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

ViaSat must really want that bird into operation faster considering they are willing to pay the extra money for a 551 configuration.   
The military did this as well.  They used a 551 to put MUOS-5  (a similar size satellite) into a 3790 km x 35706 km x 19.1o GTO, needing only about 1410 m/s to GEO.

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #17 on: 09/12/2018 06:36 pm »
Tweet from PBdeS:
Quote
[email protected] on choice of @ulalaunch Atlas 5 w/o soliciting bids from @Arianespace or @Spacex: 'Viasat doesn't follow traditional procurement practices. We've engaged in discussions w/ multiple launch providers for the ViaSat-3 constellation, including SpaceX and Arianespace.'

Offline Brovane

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #18 on: 09/12/2018 07:01 pm »
Quote
The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

ViaSat must really want that bird into operation faster considering they are willing to pay the extra money for a 551 configuration.   
The military did this as well.  They used a 551 to put MUOS-5  (a similar size satellite) into a 3790 km x 35706 km x 19.1o GTO, needing only about 1410 m/s to GEO.

Usually the US military is less price sensitive than private commercial companies.

I am not a expert, but is it usual process for Private companies to want to pay extra for super-sync GTO insertions for launches?   

"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline ncb1397

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #19 on: 09/12/2018 07:25 pm »
Playing with ULA's rocket builder page, an Atlas 551 with the 5 meter longest fairing can put 8856 kg into a GTO with a 1800 m/s deficit. Assuming that the launch services page on SpaceX is the same 1800 m/s deficit GTO, a $95 million Falcon Heavy can put 8000 kg into the same orbit[1]. This satellite could theoretically be in the 8000 kg - 8856 kg range requiring a launch service greater and more expensive than the $95 million tier. These numbers might have an inflation adjustment as they are a few years old for a 2020 launch. NASA also recently purchased a Atlas V 541 for 2020 at a launch cost of $243 million[2]. Now, SpaceX and presumeably others charge somewhat of a premium for government contracted launches and that number includes some additional things not related to ULA costs or comsat costs like planetary protection and nuclear handling. On the other side, we are talking about adding an additional solid and potentially a longer fairing as well. For the sake of argument, let's say that Viasat was able to secure this launch for a cool $200 million. Now, ULA advertises an average industry launch insurance cost savings of $12 million dollars for an Atlas because of a superior reliability record to Arianespace/SpaceX/ILS and these would be on the more expensive side in terms of launch insurance (each satellite is projected to cost $600 million to build/insure/deploy). So, the difference in cost is likely to be less than $100 million and somewhat less likely to be significantly less than $100 million (say $75 million).

Now each Viasat has about 1 terabit of network capacity. Viasat also has various plans but their basic plan is up to 12 mbps that throttles at 40 GB per month for $50-$70 per month. Assuming some deflation, let's say this service level goes for $30/month during Viasat 3's introductory service period. 1 terabit/s of network capacity translates to a theoretical throughput limit of 324,000,000 GB per month or a theoretical limit of servicing the full non throttled capacity of 8.1 million basic subscribers. If the actual throughput per subscriber is double the throttled-free limit, it would be more like 4 million subscribers. 8.1 million subscribers is $243 million dollars per month in revenue and 4 million subscribers is ~120 million dollars per month in revenue. This probably represents the upper bound in cost/GB as it is the cheapest plan and therefore the upper bound in revenue. Viasat also has a $100-$150 plan for up to 50 mbps. Assuming this goes for $60 in the future and every customer uses all their capacity all the time, you could service 200,000 of these customers or monthly revenue of $12 million(this would be the absolute worst case scenario assuming the cost figure is correct). I think it likely that the additonal launch costs could be justified on the basis of just a few months of earlier service. And that isn't even counting the 1/30 possibility of losing the satellite and 1/3 of the revenue potential in the $2 billion dollar Viasat 3 constellation effort on something like a Falcon Heavy. By the time you could replace it, Viasat 3 might already be going obsolete. Not to mention it could potentially decimate their customer base that may or may not be recoverable.

[1] https://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-mars-2020-rover-mission
« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 08:06 pm by ncb1397 »

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #20 on: 09/12/2018 07:27 pm »
For a 6-ton electric propulsion sat, the price difference between an Atlas V-541 and AtlasV-551 is probably worth it.  (It's not usual to launch 6-ton electric propulsion sats, and it's not usual for the satellite operator to build their own payload for a GEO commsat, so we're already on the fringes here.)  Whether you think the Atlas V pricing is worth it compared to other providers is another story.  Viasat is willing to pay for reliability and performance.  If they booked a 551 then recoverable F9 was probably not considered, so you're looking at $90M+ from other providers unless you want to take a chance on Proton.

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #21 on: 09/12/2018 08:27 pm »
For a 6-ton electric propulsion sat, the price difference between an Atlas V-541 and AtlasV-551 is probably worth it.  (It's not usual to launch 6-ton electric propulsion sats, and it's not usual for the satellite operator to build their own payload for a GEO commsat, so we're already on the fringes here.)  Whether you think the Atlas V pricing is worth it compared to other providers is another story.  Viasat is willing to pay for reliability and performance.  If they booked a 551 then recoverable F9 was probably not considered, so you're looking at $90M+ from other providers unless you want to take a chance on Proton.

Can't a Atlas-V 521 place 6,000+ kg into GTO-1800 out of CCAFS?

"Look at that! If anybody ever said, "you'll be sitting in a spacecraft naked with a 134-pound backpack on your knees charging it", I'd have said "Aw, get serious". - John Young - Apollo-16

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #22 on: 09/12/2018 08:29 pm »
For a 6-ton electric propulsion sat, the price difference between an Atlas V-541 and AtlasV-551 is probably worth it.  (It's not usual to launch 6-ton electric propulsion sats, and it's not usual for the satellite operator to build their own payload for a GEO commsat, so we're already on the fringes here.)  Whether you think the Atlas V pricing is worth it compared to other providers is another story.  Viasat is willing to pay for reliability and performance.  If they booked a 551 then recoverable F9 was probably not considered, so you're looking at $90M+ from other providers unless you want to take a chance on Proton.
Proton's manifest is in the process of being finalized with all future domestic and ILS orders starting at some point next year being for the Angara family of launchers from then forward.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #23 on: 09/12/2018 08:49 pm »
Playing with ULA's rocket builder page, an Atlas 551 with the 5 meter longest fairing can put 8856 kg into a GTO with a 1800 m/s deficit. Assuming that the launch services page on SpaceX is the same 1800 m/s deficit GTO, a $95 million Falcon Heavy can put 8000 kg into the same orbit[1]. This satellite could theoretically be in the 8000 kg - 8856 kg range requiring a launch service greater and more expensive than the $95 million tier. These numbers might have an inflation adjustment as they are a few years old for a 2020 launch. NASA also recently purchased a Atlas V 541 for 2020 at a launch cost of $243 million[2]. Now, SpaceX and presumeably others charge somewhat of a premium for government contracted launches and that number includes some additional things not related to ULA costs or comsat costs like planetary protection and nuclear handling. On the other side, we are talking about adding an additional solid and potentially a longer fairing as well. For the sake of argument, let's say that Viasat was able to secure this launch for a cool $200 million. Now, ULA advertises an average industry launch insurance cost savings of $12 million dollars for an Atlas because of a superior reliability record to Arianespace/SpaceX/ILS and these would be on the more expensive side in terms of launch insurance (each satellite is projected to cost $600 million to build/insure/deploy). So, the difference in cost is likely to be less than $100 million and somewhat less likely to be significantly less than $100 million (say $75 million).

Now each Viasat has about 1 terabit of network capacity. Viasat also has various plans but their basic plan is up to 12 mbps that throttles at 40 GB per month for $50-$70 per month. Assuming some deflation, let's say this service level goes for $30/month during Viasat 3's introductory service period. 1 terabit/s of network capacity translates to a theoretical throughput limit of 324,000,000 GB per month or a theoretical limit of servicing the full non throttled capacity of 8.1 million basic subscribers. If the actual throughput per subscriber is double the throttled-free limit, it would be more like 4 million subscribers. 8.1 million subscribers is $243 million dollars per month in revenue and 4 million subscribers is ~120 million dollars per month in revenue. This probably represents the upper bound in cost/GB as it is the cheapest plan and therefore the upper bound in revenue. Viasat also has a $100-$150 plan for up to 50 mbps. Assuming this goes for $60 in the future and every customer uses all their capacity all the time, you could service 200,000 of these customers or monthly revenue of $12 million(this would be the absolute worst case scenario assuming the cost figure is correct). I think it likely that the additonal launch costs could be justified on the basis of just a few months of earlier service. And that isn't even counting the 1/30 possibility of losing the satellite and 1/3 of the revenue potential in the $2 billion dollar Viasat 3 constellation effort on something like a Falcon Heavy. By the time you could replace it, Viasat 3 might already be going obsolete. Not to mention it could potentially decimate their customer base that may or may not be recoverable.

[1] https://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-mars-2020-rover-mission

Except ViaSat did book a Falcon Heavy for the Americas ViaSat-3 launch. This appears to be little more than ViaSat hedging their bets and booking around with various providers, and probably has little to do with the cost/benefit of one particular launch.

The real interesting question is "what are they launching that requires the performance of FH and AV551?"

Offline ncb1397

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #24 on: 09/12/2018 09:15 pm »
Playing with ULA's rocket builder page, an Atlas 551 with the 5 meter longest fairing can put 8856 kg into a GTO with a 1800 m/s deficit. Assuming that the launch services page on SpaceX is the same 1800 m/s deficit GTO, a $95 million Falcon Heavy can put 8000 kg into the same orbit[1]. This satellite could theoretically be in the 8000 kg - 8856 kg range requiring a launch service greater and more expensive than the $95 million tier. These numbers might have an inflation adjustment as they are a few years old for a 2020 launch. NASA also recently purchased a Atlas V 541 for 2020 at a launch cost of $243 million[2]. Now, SpaceX and presumeably others charge somewhat of a premium for government contracted launches and that number includes some additional things not related to ULA costs or comsat costs like planetary protection and nuclear handling. On the other side, we are talking about adding an additional solid and potentially a longer fairing as well. For the sake of argument, let's say that Viasat was able to secure this launch for a cool $200 million. Now, ULA advertises an average industry launch insurance cost savings of $12 million dollars for an Atlas because of a superior reliability record to Arianespace/SpaceX/ILS and these would be on the more expensive side in terms of launch insurance (each satellite is projected to cost $600 million to build/insure/deploy). So, the difference in cost is likely to be less than $100 million and somewhat less likely to be significantly less than $100 million (say $75 million).

Now each Viasat has about 1 terabit of network capacity. Viasat also has various plans but their basic plan is up to 12 mbps that throttles at 40 GB per month for $50-$70 per month. Assuming some deflation, let's say this service level goes for $30/month during Viasat 3's introductory service period. 1 terabit/s of network capacity translates to a theoretical throughput limit of 324,000,000 GB per month or a theoretical limit of servicing the full non throttled capacity of 8.1 million basic subscribers. If the actual throughput per subscriber is double the throttled-free limit, it would be more like 4 million subscribers. 8.1 million subscribers is $243 million dollars per month in revenue and 4 million subscribers is ~120 million dollars per month in revenue. This probably represents the upper bound in cost/GB as it is the cheapest plan and therefore the upper bound in revenue. Viasat also has a $100-$150 plan for up to 50 mbps. Assuming this goes for $60 in the future and every customer uses all their capacity all the time, you could service 200,000 of these customers or monthly revenue of $12 million(this would be the absolute worst case scenario assuming the cost figure is correct). I think it likely that the additonal launch costs could be justified on the basis of just a few months of earlier service. And that isn't even counting the 1/30 possibility of losing the satellite and 1/3 of the revenue potential in the $2 billion dollar Viasat 3 constellation effort on something like a Falcon Heavy. By the time you could replace it, Viasat 3 might already be going obsolete. Not to mention it could potentially decimate their customer base that may or may not be recoverable.

[1] https://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-mars-2020-rover-mission

Except ViaSat did book a Falcon Heavy for the Americas ViaSat-3 launch. This appears to be little more than ViaSat hedging their bets and booking around with various providers, and probably has little to do with the cost/benefit of one particular launch. Currently, there are 2 Viasat-3 satellites and 2 launch contracts for Arianespace and ULA. So, the Americas Viasat, which is the first to go up I think is unlikely to do so on Falcon. Possibly the third one.

The real interesting question is "what are they launching that requires the performance of FH and AV551?"

They never booked a Falcon launch for Viasat-3. They have an old launch contract booked for Viasat-2 that was moved to Ariane 5 and launched in June of last year. Last information is that they are evaluating what to do with the contract. It may be used for Viasat-3, transferred to a third party or cancelled.

Quote
Viasat originally signed a contract with SpaceX to launch its ViaSat 2 satellite into space via SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket. But because SpaceX delayed the rocket's launch, Viasat ended up sending the satellite aloft with the help of Arianespace.
Asked about Viasat's contract with SpaceX, Dankberg said "we're still evaluating” it and that the company has not made any decisions about future satellite launches.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/viasat-ceo-talks-satellite-internet-130039242.html

« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 09:23 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline russianhalo117

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #25 on: 09/12/2018 09:20 pm »
Playing with ULA's rocket builder page, an Atlas 551 with the 5 meter longest fairing can put 8856 kg into a GTO with a 1800 m/s deficit. Assuming that the launch services page on SpaceX is the same 1800 m/s deficit GTO, a $95 million Falcon Heavy can put 8000 kg into the same orbit[1]. This satellite could theoretically be in the 8000 kg - 8856 kg range requiring a launch service greater and more expensive than the $95 million tier. These numbers might have an inflation adjustment as they are a few years old for a 2020 launch. NASA also recently purchased a Atlas V 541 for 2020 at a launch cost of $243 million[2]. Now, SpaceX and presumeably others charge somewhat of a premium for government contracted launches and that number includes some additional things not related to ULA costs or comsat costs like planetary protection and nuclear handling. On the other side, we are talking about adding an additional solid and potentially a longer fairing as well. For the sake of argument, let's say that Viasat was able to secure this launch for a cool $200 million. Now, ULA advertises an average industry launch insurance cost savings of $12 million dollars for an Atlas because of a superior reliability record to Arianespace/SpaceX/ILS and these would be on the more expensive side in terms of launch insurance (each satellite is projected to cost $600 million to build/insure/deploy). So, the difference in cost is likely to be less than $100 million and somewhat less likely to be significantly less than $100 million (say $75 million).

Now each Viasat has about 1 terabit of network capacity. Viasat also has various plans but their basic plan is up to 12 mbps that throttles at 40 GB per month for $50-$70 per month. Assuming some deflation, let's say this service level goes for $30/month during Viasat 3's introductory service period. 1 terabit/s of network capacity translates to a theoretical throughput limit of 324,000,000 GB per month or a theoretical limit of servicing the full non throttled capacity of 8.1 million basic subscribers. If the actual throughput per subscriber is double the throttled-free limit, it would be more like 4 million subscribers. 8.1 million subscribers is $243 million dollars per month in revenue and 4 million subscribers is ~120 million dollars per month in revenue. This probably represents the upper bound in cost/GB as it is the cheapest plan and therefore the upper bound in revenue. Viasat also has a $100-$150 plan for up to 50 mbps. Assuming this goes for $60 in the future and every customer uses all their capacity all the time, you could service 200,000 of these customers or monthly revenue of $12 million(this would be the absolute worst case scenario assuming the cost figure is correct). I think it likely that the additonal launch costs could be justified on the basis of just a few months of earlier service. And that isn't even counting the 1/30 possibility of losing the satellite and 1/3 of the revenue potential in the $2 billion dollar Viasat 3 constellation effort on something like a Falcon Heavy. By the time you could replace it, Viasat 3 might already be going obsolete. Not to mention it could potentially decimate their customer base that may or may not be recoverable.

[1] https://www.spacex.com/about/capabilities
[2] https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-awards-launch-services-contract-for-mars-2020-rover-mission

Except ViaSat did book a Falcon Heavy for the Americas ViaSat-3 launch. This appears to be little more than ViaSat hedging their bets and booking around with various providers, and probably has little to do with the cost/benefit of one particular launch.

The real interesting question is "what are they launching that requires the performance of FH and AV551?"

They never booked a Falcon launch for Viasat-3. They have an old launch contract booked for Viasat-2 that was moved to Ariane 5 and launched in June of last year. Last information is that they are evaluating what to do with the contract. It may be used for Viasat-3, transferred to a third party or cancelled.

Quote
Viasat originally signed a contract with SpaceX to launch its ViaSat 2 satellite into space via SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket. But because SpaceX delayed the rocket's launch, Viasat ended up sending the satellite aloft with the help of Arianespace.
Asked about Viasat's contract with SpaceX, Dankberg said "we're still evaluating” it and that the company has not made any decisions about future satellite launches.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/viasat-ceo-talks-satellite-internet-130039242.html


the Original ViaSat -3 launch contracts which were done by EUTELSAT were kept by EUTELSAT upon the split.

Offline GWH

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #26 on: 09/12/2018 10:03 pm »
Regarding launch mass and capabilities an Atlas V 551 can put 6695 to a GTO-1500 m/s, that same launch mass to GTO-1800 would only require a 421 or 531 (source rocketbuilder.com).
Initial Twitter comments suggested the satellite masses 7 tons, FWIW Gunter's space page lists Viasat3 at 6400kg https://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/viasat-3.htm
It's worth noting that a few months ago rocket builder was tweaked to highlight early to orbit options.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 10:13 pm by GWH »

Offline ncb1397

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #27 on: 09/12/2018 10:25 pm »
Initial Twitter comments suggested the satellite masses 7 tons, FWIW Gunter's space page lists Viasat3 at 6400kg

Same launch mass as Viasat 2, but 3x the throughput in 3 years. That's impressive. Who said Moore's law was dead? But seriously though, more likely it is just a placeholder derived from Viasat 2.

Quote
"Completing the bus CDR validates that the satellite meets all necessary requirements for production to begin," said
Paul Rusnock, chairman and CEO, Boeing Satellite Systems International. "Viasat-3 is the largest satellite in both size and power that Boeing is building, and one of the largest satellites in the industry. It will be a highly-capable and advanced spacecraft - with greater than 25kW of power at end of life, and an ability to take full advantage of the efficiency of its all-electric propulsion."
https://www.viasat.com/news/viasat-and-boeing-proceeding-full-construction-first-two-viasat-3-satellites

The "one of the largest satellites" comment suggests under 7000 kg.
« Last Edit: 09/12/2018 10:38 pm by ncb1397 »

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #28 on: 09/13/2018 02:26 am »
Regarding launch mass and capabilities an Atlas V 551 can put 6695 to a GTO-1500 m/s
Atlas V 551 can do better than that.  It put MUOS-5 at 6740 kg into GEO-1410. 

Offline soltasto

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #29 on: 09/13/2018 10:04 am »
the Original ViaSat -3 launch contracts which were done by EUTELSAT were kept by EUTELSAT upon the split.

Looking at the official SpaceX manifest, they have a Falcon 9 contract for Eutelsat and a Falcon Heavy contract for ViaSat.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2018 12:50 pm by gongora »

Offline GWH

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #30 on: 09/13/2018 12:39 pm »
Atlas V 551 can do better than that.  It put MUOS-5 at 6740 kg into GEO-1410.
Was that the targeted orbit or where it ended up after burning to depletion? Would expect rocketbuilder.com to allow for some margin.

This mission could also benefit from GEM 63's, which have about 10% more propellant and over 10% less dry mass than the AJ-60, although ISP doesn't appear to be published. So performance could be even better.
« Last Edit: 09/13/2018 01:25 pm by GWH »

Online gongora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #31 on: 09/13/2018 12:59 pm »
the Original ViaSat -3 launch contracts which were done by EUTELSAT were kept by EUTELSAT upon the split.

Looking at the official SpaceX manifest, they have a Falcon 9 contract for Eutelsat and a Falcon Heavy contract for ViaSat.

Eutelsat and Viasat both originally had launch contracts/options with SpaceX that had nothing to do with Viasat-3.  Viasat's contract with SpaceX may have been switched to a Viasat-3 payload.  I really have no idea what Eutelsat contracts russianhalo117 is talking about.

Offline Newton_V

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #32 on: 09/13/2018 01:56 pm »
Atlas V 551 can do better than that.  It put MUOS-5 at 6740 kg into GEO-1410.
Was that the targeted orbit or where it ended up after burning to depletion?

MUOS was not an MRS mission design.  DV to GSO was 1300 m/s.

Offline LouScheffer

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #33 on: 09/13/2018 05:21 pm »
Atlas V 551 can do better than that.  It put MUOS-5 at 6740 kg into GEO-1410.
Was that the targeted orbit or where it ended up after burning to depletion?

MUOS was not an MRS mission design.  DV to GSO was 1300 m/s.
It was only 1300 m/s since MUOS wanted an inclined orbit, and so did not need to cancel all inclination.  To go from the MUOS GTO to a zero inclination GEO (such as ViaSat will need) is 1410 m/s.

Offline Newton_V

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #34 on: 09/13/2018 05:43 pm »
Oops, yep.  My mistake.  1300 m/s to 5 deg inc.

Offline jbenton

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #35 on: 09/18/2018 09:08 am »
Yeah, and we will not know what that is. There are too many options, just to speculate about a few: Maybe it does not fit into the F9 fairing and is too large for dual launch in an Ariane. Single launch with Ariane could be too expensive. Or maybe it has vibration requirements that both launchers cannot meet. Or it wants direct GEO insertion which requires expendable core FH or single launch with Ariane. Who knows? The range of possibilities is too large to determine the reason.

How hard is it to design a satellite smaller than a whale?




Offline vapour_nudge

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #36 on: 09/26/2018 11:00 am »
Quote
The 551 configuration provides the performance to deliver a ViaSat-3 satellite into a high-energy geostationary transfer orbit where it can begin on-orbit operations faster than with other available launch vehicles.

ViaSat must really want that bird into operation faster considering they are willing to pay the extra money for a 551 configuration.   
The military did this as well.  They used a 551 to put MUOS-5  (a similar size satellite) into a 3790 km x 35706 km x 19.1o GTO, needing only about 1410 m/s to GEO.

Usually the US military is less price sensitive than private commercial companies.

I am not a expert, but is it usual process for Private companies to want to pay extra for super-sync GTO insertions for launches?
When ULA announced the switch to the GEMs back in 2015, they were quoted by Spaceflightnow as stating the GEMs will significantly reduce costs. So with 5 SRBs this could be quite a saving over the AR60-a. It would be nice to know exactly how much it reduces the cost.

Offline Sam Ho

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #37 on: 10/02/2018 04:57 pm »
Article in Space News explaining why Viasat and ULA say this was a competitive procurement, while Arianespace and SpaceX say they did not bid.  It boils down to Viasat not using a formal RFP process.

https://spacenews.com/viasat-ula-insist-viasat-3-launch-was-competitively-procured/

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #38 on: 10/03/2018 11:59 am »
Article in Space News explaining why Viasat and ULA say this was a competitive procurement, while Arianespace and SpaceX say they did not bid.  It boils down to Viasat not using a formal RFP process.

https://spacenews.com/viasat-ula-insist-viasat-3-launch-was-competitively-procured/

Talking to three suppliers and then asking only one of them for a bid is not a competitive procurement. It's sole-sourcing a contract.

Offline speedevil

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #39 on: 10/03/2018 12:25 pm »
Playing with ULA's rocket builder page, an Atlas 551 with the 5 meter longest fairing can put 8856 kg into a GTO with a 1800 m/s deficit. Assuming that the launch services page on SpaceX is the same 1800 m/s deficit GTO, a $95 million Falcon Heavy can put 8000 kg into the same orbit[1]
A recent slide  at IAC2018 gave FH - all droneship recovered - as 10 tons to GTO. Perhaps they aren't actively selling that service, which is an interesting note for the future, if this was the reason to pick ULA.

Online gongora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #40 on: 10/03/2018 02:50 pm »
I don't think Viasat-3 is 8000kg, and I bet Viasat is looking for better than GTO-1800.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #41 on: 10/09/2018 02:34 pm »
FH was considered for performance, however FH has had only one launch - a demo mission without an insured payload.    If the next two FH missions (STP-2 and ARABSAT) would have been successfully completed prior to the decision for ViaSat 3, then the decision for ULA Atlas V may have been different.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #42 on: 10/09/2018 02:41 pm »
I don't think Viasat-3 is 8000kg, and I bet Viasat is looking for better than GTO-1800.


ViaSat-3 is 6300-6400 kg estimated mass range (to remain launch compatibility with Ariane 5 UB and Falcon 9), with electric propulsion for orbit raising and station keeping.    The key decision of Atlas V-551 was the lift performance (lower deltaV) resulting in shorter time to orbit and, of course the reliability.   Falcon 9 and Ariane 5 UB would have required five to six months orbit raising, while Atlas V-551 should reduce that time period by 50%.

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #43 on: 10/09/2018 02:52 pm »
My speculation, based on commercial launch industry experience:

Price competition:  ULA was competing against Arianespace with a dedicated Ariane 5.   Atlas V-551 is competitive against Ariane 5 dedicated mission (to match mission injection requirements).     

Again, SpaceX F9 did not meet injection performance requirements, and FH did not have the minimum flight heritage at time of decision.   

Other new potential launch vehicles such as MHI III, Northrop Grumman OmegA, Blue Origin New Glenn and Arianespace Ariane 64/62 have zero flight heritage at time of decision.

Offline ethan829

Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #44 on: 10/09/2018 08:34 pm »
FH was considered for performance, however FH has had only one launch - a demo mission without an insured payload.    If the next two FH missions (STP-2 and ARABSAT) would have been successfully completed prior to the decision for ViaSat 3, then the decision for ULA Atlas V may have been different.


ViaSat bought a Falcon Heavy launch before it had flown:
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/viasat-selects-spacex-to-launch-viasat-2-satellite-2015-01-12

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #45 on: 10/09/2018 09:11 pm »
Ethan829 - agree completely on your statement.

At that time, SpaceX was to execute many launches prior to that mission . . . and when that didn't happen, ViaSat switched their mission to Ariane 5 (at great expense).

Technically, ViaSat probably still has a launch contract with some deposit for a Falcon Heavy, and hope to use in the future after two or three successful (and insured - public evaluation of success) mission.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #46 on: 10/10/2018 12:31 am »
Ethan829 - agree completely on your statement.

At that time, SpaceX was to execute many launches prior to that mission . . . and when that didn't happen, ViaSat switched their mission to Ariane 5 (at great expense).

Technically, ViaSat probably still has a launch contract with some deposit for a Falcon Heavy, and hope to use in the future after two or three successful (and insured - public evaluation of success) mission.

The USAF certified Falcon Heavy for NSS flights, after reviewing data from the demo flight. Insurers for FH flights undoubtedly also have reviewed that data, as well as NASA, and other major customers.

I rather doubt that any additional flights will result in a more "public" review of confidential mission data. However, they will allow a better statistical analysis of the data, as well as confirm the reliability of the Block 5 upgrades to FH.

Why does Viasat have such a low tolerance for risk, relative to NASA, USAF, and virtually every other commercial and governmental customer? Do they not purchase insurance? The ~$50 million difference from AV551 to FHR would pay for a lot of insurance.
« Last Edit: 10/10/2018 12:33 am by envy887 »

Offline Chasm

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #47 on: 10/10/2018 12:44 pm »
Looks to me like ViaSat needs the capacity ASAP. Satellite on orbit, earning money.

Launch insurance does not really help in that case.
(Does not really matter if they need the capacity or money.)

Offline Aurora

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #48 on: 10/10/2018 01:43 pm »
Chasm,

Agree.

Insurance monies replaces capex expenditures . . . however a replacement satellite will take three years to build and launch.   ViaSat will generate more than $50M in profits on the satellite over those three years . . . and earn nothing if the satellite is destroyed on an unproven launch vehicle.

If ViaSat was to lose those three years of capacity, their primary satellite competitor HughesNet (also known as Spaceway) will capture customers during that period.  Once someone installs a satellite dish, most are reluctant to install a second dish to switch.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #49 on: 10/10/2018 03:22 pm »
Chasm,

Agree.

Insurance monies replaces capex expenditures . . . however a replacement satellite will take three years to build and launch.   ViaSat will generate more than $50M in profits on the satellite over those three years . . . and earn nothing if the satellite is destroyed on an unproven launch vehicle.

If ViaSat was to lose those three years of capacity, their primary satellite competitor HughesNet (also known as Spaceway) will capture customers during that period.  Once someone installs a satellite dish, most are reluctant to install a second dish to switch.

They can also insure operating revenues, in fact this is fairly typical. Since launch failures are infrequent, the cost of the insurance is much lower than the actual revenues.

The market share, of course, they can't insure, and it is much more difficult to that win back than to replace a satellite.

Offline envy887

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #50 on: 10/25/2018 01:24 pm »
My speculation, based on commercial launch industry experience:

Price competition:  ULA was competing against Arianespace with a dedicated Ariane 5.   Atlas V-551 is competitive against Ariane 5 dedicated mission (to match mission injection requirements).     

Again, SpaceX F9 did not meet injection performance requirements, and FH did not have the minimum flight heritage at time of decision.   

Other new potential launch vehicles such as MHI III, Northrop Grumman OmegA, Blue Origin New Glenn and Arianespace Ariane 64/62 have zero flight heritage at time of decision.

Viasat just announced a Viasat-3 on FH with near-direct injection. FH doesn't have any more flight heritage recently, so they were probably mainly spreading the launches around between FH and AV551 to put their eggs in different baskets.

I wonder if the third one will go on Ariane 5 ES, since ECA can't do direct injection.

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #51 on: 10/25/2018 01:36 pm »
....

Viasat just announced a Viasat-3 on FH with near-direct injection. FH doesn't have any more flight heritage recently, so they were probably mainly spreading the launches around between FH and AV551 to put their eggs in different baskets.

I wonder if the third one will go on Ariane 5 ES, since ECA can't do direct injection.

Nope. The Ariane 5 ES is retired.

Offline Chasm

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 - SLC-41 - NET 2020
« Reply #52 on: 10/25/2018 07:09 pm »
Ariane 64 would be the ticket. The user manual (revision1) has the (preliminary) direct to to GSO performance as 5000kg.
First A62 launches are in 2020, first A64 launches in 2021. A more complex mission probably a bit later, say as 5th launch at the end of 2021 or in 2022. Not too bad, the FH launch just announced is for a 2020-2022 time frame.

AV551 performance to GSO is 3856kg according to rocketbuilder.



Edit: Performance is in kg. =)
« Last Edit: 10/25/2018 07:10 pm by Chasm »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2022
« Reply #53 on: 12/17/2021 08:11 pm »
Delayed NET early 2021, NLT H2 2022:
https://spacenews.com/viasat-orders-asia-pacific-viasat-3-from-boeing-amid-record-revenue/
Quote
In a Feb. 7 earnings call, Dankberg said the launch of the first ViaSat-3 satellite, expected to cover the Americas, will likely slip a few months to early 2021.
...
Carlsbad, California-based Viasat has three launch contracts for ViaSat-3 — one with Arianespace for an Ariane 5, one with United Launch Alliance for an Atlas 5, and one with SpaceX for a Falcon Heavy — but has not said which will launch first. Viasat is expected to launch the first ViaSat-3 to cover the Americas, followed be the second ViaSat-3 for Europe, the Middle East and Africa six months later. Dankberg said the third ViaSat-3, designated for the Asia Pacific, is expected to launch in the second half of 2022.
[dated Feb 8, 2019]

NET 2021 launch:
https://spaceflightnow.com/2019/06/30/barring-a-surprise-spacexs-next-falcon-heavy-flight-is-planned-in-late-2020/
Quote
Viasat has booked firm launch contracts with SpaceX, United Launch Alliance and Arianespace to carry one ViaSat 3 satellite at a time toward their operating positions in geostationary orbit beginning in 2021. But the California-based broadband company has not announced the order of the ViaSat 3 launches, or which rocket will launch each satellite.

Launch delayed to mid-2021.
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1226906375315501090
Quote
Viasat shows continued rev, EBITDA growth on flat US consumer subscriber base, outlines diverse demand profiles in Americas, EMEA, Asia-Pac in preparation for global Viasat-3 play. 1st Viasat-3 launch mid-2021. [dated Feb 10, 2020]

Launch delayed to H1 2022:
https://spacenews.com/baldridge-replaces-dankberg-as-ceo-as-viasat-prepares-to-launch-viasat-3-americas/
Quote
Demand for residential broadband and government connectivity grew during the quarter, and should continue to climb once the first ViaSat-3 satellite, designed to beam a terabit or more of capacity over North and South America, is in orbit, he said.
...
That satellite should still launch by the end of 2021, he said, but lacks a more specific launch date until the payload shipment.
[dated Nov 5, 2020]

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-to-accelerate-european-broadband-strategy-ahead-of-viasat-3-satellite-launch-will-acquire-remaining-stake-in-its-european-broadband-joint-venture-including-the-ka-sat-satellite-301176735.html
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 class satellite in that constellation will cover Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA), and is targeted for launch in 2022.
[dated Nov 19, 2020]

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/story/2020-11-05/viasat-shuffles-executive-suite-as-it-moves-closer-to-launch-of-new-internet-satellites
Quote
Viasat designs bus-sized, high-orbit Internet satellites. It is building a constellation of three new ones — each with a one terabyte of capacity — that will give the company a global Internet footprint. The first is slated to launch late next year and provide coverage across North and South America, delivering faster speeds than the current satellites and hefty data usage allowances.

The second is expected to be in orbit six months later with coverage across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The exact timing for the third ViaSat-3 over Asia is to be determined.
[dated Nov 5, 2020]

Launch delayed to (NET?) midyear 2022:
https://advanced-television.com/2021/06/09/viasat-gets-closer-to-version-3-0-launch/
Quote
Viasat of California says the first of its trio of its Version 3.0 satellites has completed testing and payload integration at Viasat’s own facility. Boeing will now take care of the further integration with performance testing.

The satellite, destined to cover the Americas, will launch early next year. Two more V 3.0 will follow. One will cover Europe, the Mid-East and Africa and the third will serve the Asia-Pacific region.

Viasat says that its European/MEA bird will be delivered to Boeing later next year.

“I can’t predict that there won’t be any other COVID impacts,” Rick Baldridge, Viasat’s president and CEO, said on the company’s recent fiscal Q4/2021 earnings call, noting that the second payload (for the EMEA) region is running about six months behind the first payload for the Americas. “It has definitely hit us pretty hard this last year on that payload.”
[dated June 9]
« Last Edit: 12/17/2021 08:45 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Offline Yiosie

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2022
« Reply #54 on: 12/17/2021 11:18 pm »
Launch delayed to Q4 2022:

Returning airline traffic boosts Viasat and Intelsat financials [dated Aug. 5]

Quote
The company said the first ViaSat-3 satellite, which will cover the Americas, has been delivered to Boeing for final spacecraft integration and testing, ahead of a launch in the first or second quarter of 2022.

A second ViaSat-3, for covering Europe, the Middle East and Africa, is due to launch five to six months later, followed by a third spacecraft for Asia.

Payload issue delays SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch to early 2022 [dated Oct. 4]

Quote
The next commercial Falcon Heavy launch is also scheduled for the second quarter of 2022, carrying a Viasat 3 broadband communications satellite toward geostationary orbit.

5-6 months after Q2 2022 = Q4 2022.

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - Q4 2022
« Reply #55 on: 03/16/2022 04:01 pm »
problems:
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1503745190208712720

Quote
@ViasatInc
 & Israel, rebuffed in Oct., return to @ITU
 to ask for Covid-caused in-service deadline extension for Viasat-3/EMEA, to launch on @ulalaunch
 Atlas 5 in late March 2023.

https://advanced-television.com/2022/03/16/viasat-asks-for-itu-launch-extension/

Quote
Viasat asks for ITU launch extension
...

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #56 on: 04/22/2022 01:10 pm »
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1517451252640141315

Quote
[email protected] gives @ViasatInc until July 29, 2023, to start service on Viasat-3 EMEA satellite at 13.8E using Israel-registered spectrum. Late-March 2023 launch on @ulalaunch Atlas 5.

tight schedule,
approximately 4 months for the remaining ascent to the geostationary orbit, testing and commissioning  ???
« Last Edit: 04/22/2022 01:12 pm by GWR64 »

Offline GWR64

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #57 on: 05/27/2022 12:53 pm »
Viasat Shareholder Letter: Q4 and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results
https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/066bd869-c157-4b16-85bd-7c626ddd49b7
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 payload (EMEA) is anticipated to complete and ship
to Boeing in Q1 FY2023.

Q1 FY2023 is Q2 CY2022 (the current quarter)





Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #58 on: 06/25/2022 07:34 pm »
Cross-post; launch perhaps later than late March 2023?
hm, SpaceNews article June 22, 2022
original version? in google webcache [June 24]

Quote
Viasat is a global provider of satellite broadband and is looking to sign up military customers for its new Viasat-3 geostationary constellation of three highcapacity satellites. The first ViaSat-3, projected to launch in early 2023, will cover the Americas, to be followed later in the year by a second satellite to service Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A third satellite will cover Asia.
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:laRwmAjMFQsJ:https://spacenews.com/dod-satcom-big-money-for-military-satellites-slow-shift-to-commercial-services/+&cd=14&hl=de&ct=clnk&gl=de&client=firefox-b-d

current version:
you can see that the section at the date for the second satellite doesn't make sense now, that's why I looked in the cache
Quote
Viasat is a global provider of satellite broadband and is looking to sign up military customers for its new Viasat-3 geostationary constellation of three highcapacity satellites. The first ViaSat-3, projected to launch in late 2022, will cover the Americas, to be followed later in the year by a second satellite to service Europe, the Middle East and Africa. A third satellite will cover Asia.

https://spacenews.com/dod-satcom-big-money-for-military-satellites-slow-shift-to-commercial-services/
« Last Edit: 06/25/2022 07:37 pm by zubenelgenubi »
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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - March 2023
« Reply #59 on: 07/30/2022 01:20 pm »
Viasat Shareholder Letter: Q4 and Fiscal Year 2022 Financial Results
https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/066bd869-c157-4b16-85bd-7c626ddd49b7
Quote
The second ViaSat-3 payload (EMEA) is anticipated to complete and ship
to Boeing in Q1 FY2023.

Q1 FY2023 is Q2 CY2022 (the current quarter)

almost without further delay

Quote
Viasat Completes Major Milestone with Second ViaSat-3 Satellite Payload

Jul 13, 2022, 08:00 ET


Payload Delivered to Boeing to Prepare for Broadband Service to EMEA Region


CARLSBAD, Calif., July 13, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Viasat Inc. (NASDAQ: VSAT), a global leader in satellite communications, announced delivery of the second ViaSat-3 payload module to Boeing's El Segundo, CA facility where it will be integrated with Boeing's 702 spacecraft bus platform and undergo rigorous spacecraft environmental testing in preparation for launch. The second ViaSat-3 class satellite is expected to provide broadband service over Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) in 2023.


Viasat's satellite payload, designed and built in-house, provides state-of-the-art electronics for receiving, transmitting and processing broadband internet data to and from the satellite at expected rates greater than 1 terabit a second (1,000 gigabits a second), which is three times faster than ViaSat-2, the fastest communications satellite currently operating.

"Delivery of the second ViaSat-3 payload module marks a major milestone where we transition to spacecraft integration and test on the second satellite in our constellation," said Dave Ryan, president, Space & Commercial Networks at Viasat. "This milestone increases our momentum towards delivering the future of affordable, accessible satellite broadband services, virtually anywhere around the globe."

The ViaSat-3 class of Ka-band satellites is expected to provide the best bandwidth economics in the industry with incredible flexibility to move and concentrate that capacity virtually anywhere there is demand - whether it is over land, the ocean or in the air. The first two satellites are planned to focus on the Americas and on EMEA, respectively. The third ViaSat-3 satellite is undergoing final integration and testing and will focus on the Asia Pacific region, completing Viasat's global service coverage.
Forward-Looking Statements

This press release contains forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbors created under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward looking statements include among others, statements about the performance, capabilities and anticipated benefits of the ViaSat-3 class satellite platform, expected capacity, service, speeds, coverage, flexibility and other features of the ViaSat-3 constellation, and the timing of hardware delivery and service launch. Readers are cautioned that actual results could differ materially from those expressed in any forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ include: risks associated with the construction, launch and operation of the ViaSat-3 class satellites and Viasat's other satellites, including the effect of any anomaly, operational failure or degradation in satellite performance; the ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the ViaSat-3 satellite platforms; unexpected expenses or delays related to the satellite system; the ability to successfully implement Viasat's business plan for broadband satellite services on Viasat's anticipated timeline or at all, including with respect to the ViaSat-3 satellite platforms; contractual problems, product defects, manufacturing issues or delays; regulatory issues; technologies not being developed according to anticipated schedules, or that do not perform according to expectations; and increased competition and other factors affecting the connectivity sector, generally. In addition, please refer to the risk factors contained in Viasat's SEC filings available at www.sec.gov, including Viasat's most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on which they are made. Viasat undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements for any reason.
About Viasat

Viasat is a global communications company that believes everyone and everything in the world can be connected. For more than 36 years, Viasat has helped shape how consumers, businesses, governments and militaries around the world communicate. Today, the Company is developing the ultimate global communications network to power high-quality, secure, affordable, fast connections to impact people's lives anywhere they are—on the ground, in the air or at sea. To learn more about Viasat, visit: www.viasat.com, go to Viasat's Corporate Blog, or follow the Company on social media at: Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn, Twitter or YouTube.

Copyright © 2022 Viasat, Inc. All rights reserved. Viasat, the Viasat logo and the Viasat signal are registered trademarks of Viasat, Inc. All other product or company names mentioned are used for identification purposes only and may be trademarks of their respective owners.

SOURCE Viasat, Inc.

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/viasat-completes-major-milestone-with-second-viasat-3-satellite-payload-301585512.html
« Last Edit: 07/30/2022 01:25 pm by GWR64 »

Offline zubenelgenubi

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2023
« Reply #60 on: 08/06/2022 04:54 pm »
https://www.viasat.com/about/newsroom/blog/faq--what-is-viasat-3-/
[August 5]
Quote
When will the ViaSat-3 satellites launch?

For the first ViaSat-3 satellite over The Americas, service launch to support commercial services is anticipated in the first quarter of 2023 (Viasat’s Q4 for fiscal year 2023). The second ViaSat-3 payload (EMEA) shipped to Boeing July 8, 2022. Its service launch is anticipated for 2023. The launch date of the third satellite over APAC is TBD.
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Offline Vahe231991

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2023
« Reply #61 on: 10/05/2022 02:13 am »
According to a Twitter post from last March, launch of the ViaSat-3 is scheduled for March 2023:
https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/1503745190208712720

The ViaSat-3 will be the last commercial geostationary satellite launched by an Atlas V following today's launch of SES-20 & SES-21, and after it is launched, the Kuiper Systems satellites will be the only remaining commercial satellites to be launched from the Atlas V.
« Last Edit: 10/05/2022 02:31 pm by Vahe231991 »

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2023
« Reply #62 on: 10/05/2022 03:18 am »

The ViaSat-3 will be the last geostationary satellite launched by an Atlas V following today's launch of SES-20 & SES-21,

Not true. We don't know what USSF 51 is.

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2023
« Reply #63 on: 10/05/2022 02:34 pm »

The ViaSat-3 will be the last geostationary satellite launched by an Atlas V following today's launch of SES-20 & SES-21,

Not true. We don't know what USSF 51 is.
I wanted to clarify that the ViaSat-3 is the last remaining commercial geostationary satellite scheduled for launch aboard an Atlas V, but you're right, most orbital parameters for USSF-51 remain classified for the moment.

Online GewoonLukas_

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Re: ULA Atlas V 551 - ViaSat-3 EMEA - CC SLC-41 - 2023
« Reply #64 on: 11/09/2022 07:32 am »
Launch is now expected during the summer of 2023 per the Q2FY2023 Shareholder Letter

https://investors.viasat.com/static-files/e701f1a2-b4b5-42fb-8cc8-e8affb19a8a1

Quote
The programs for the second and third ViaSat-3 satellites remain on schedule, with the launch of ViaSat-3 (EMEA) expected during the summer of 2023.
Mission Patch Designer

 

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